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Global Briefing May 28

Hormuz Blockade Drains Oil Reserves as Europe Rearms Ukraine

The IEA reported a record 246-million-barrel drop in global oil inventories in March-April; RBC's Helima Croft saw losses nearing 1.5 billion barrels and prices headed toward 2008 peaks if Hormuz stays shut. Sweden signed a $2.7 billion Ukraine package built around 16 free Gripen C/D and 20-22 new E/F bought with €2.5 billion of the EU's €90 billion loan. The European Commission opened its first Foreign Subsidies probe of a Chinese deal and rebuked Ankara over Cyprus' COP31 exclusion. Trump's US pursued ceasefire and strikes in parallel as Vance touted a $1.5 trillion defence budget.

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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

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gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

Weekly brief
fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

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de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

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ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us98

Hormuz blockade drains global oil reserves at record pace; commercial stocks risk critical lows by end of June, analysts warn

The International Energy Agency said global observed oil inventories fell by 246 million barrels in March and April -- a record pace -- as Strait of Hormuz traffic has stayed at a standstill almost three months into the Iran war and the agency's March-coordinated 400 million-barrel release has not been followed by a second. Capital Economics' Neil Shearing warned in a May 18 note that commercial oil stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June, and RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft estimated cumulative crude losses would exceed one billion barrels by month-end and approach 1.5 billion barrels if Hormuz remains shut through June, potentially driving prices toward 2008 peak levels. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told the Financial Times after hosting G7 counterparts that reserves were "finite" and could not be released "without having visibility on the duration and intensity of the conflict."

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The International Energy Agency said global observed oil inventories fell by 246 million barrels in March and April -- a record pace -- as Strait of Hormuz traffic has stayed at a standstill almost three months into the Iran war and the agency's March-coordinated 400 million-barrel release has not been followed by a second. Capital Economics' Neil Shearing warned in a May 18 note that commercial oil stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June, and RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft estimated cumulative crude losses would exceed one billion barrels by month-end and approach 1.5 billion barrels if Hormuz remains shut through June, potentially driving prices toward 2008 peak levels. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told the Financial Times after hosting G7 counterparts that reserves were "finite" and could not be released "without having visibility on the duration and intensity of the conflict."

us95

JD Vance says Trump pushing $1.5 trillion defense budget, cites Golden Dome in Air Force Academy speech

Vice President JD Vance on Thursday told graduates of the U.S. Air Force Academy that President Donald Trump is pushing for a $1.5 trillion defense budget and touted the Golden Dome missile-defense system. Vance spoke as the administration circulates a draft peace agreement with Iran among allies including Israel, aiming to open the Strait of Hormuz and unfreeze $12 billion in Iranian assets. The speech came as new data showed U.S. inflation rose at its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by higher energy costs amid the war with Iran.

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Vice President JD Vance on Thursday told graduates of the U.S. Air Force Academy that President Donald Trump is pushing for a $1.5 trillion defense budget and touted the Golden Dome missile-defense system. Vance spoke as the administration circulates a draft peace agreement with Iran among allies including Israel, aiming to open the Strait of Hormuz and unfreeze $12 billion in Iranian assets. The speech came as new data showed U.S. inflation rose at its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by higher energy costs amid the war with Iran.

ua95

Sweden to donate 16 Gripen C/D fighters and sell Ukraine up to 22 new Gripen E in $2.7 billion air-defence package

At Uppsala Air Base, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a defence declaration formalising Sweden's largest military aid package to date for Ukraine, worth about $2.7 billion: Sweden will transfer 16 older Gripen JAS 39 C/D jets free of charge with deliveries from early 2027, and Ukraine will purchase 20 to 22 new Gripen E/F using €2.5 billion drawn from the EU's €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan, with deliveries from 2030. The package also commits nearly $400 million to drone production and includes long-range Meteor air-to-air missiles and pilot and technician training that has already begun -- Zelenskyy said he expects the first Gripens within 10 months. The framework signed in October 2025 contemplates up to 150 Gripens for Ukraine over the next decade; Saab shares rose 4.4 percent at 1141 GMT to lead Europe's gainers.

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At Uppsala Air Base, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a defence declaration formalising Sweden's largest military aid package to date for Ukraine, worth about $2.7 billion: Sweden will transfer 16 older Gripen JAS 39 C/D jets free of charge with deliveries from early 2027, and Ukraine will purchase 20 to 22 new Gripen E/F using €2.5 billion drawn from the EU's €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan, with deliveries from 2030. The package also commits nearly $400 million to drone production and includes long-range Meteor air-to-air missiles and pilot and technician training that has already begun -- Zelenskyy said he expects the first Gripens within 10 months. The framework signed in October 2025 contemplates up to 150 Gripens for Ukraine over the next decade; Saab shares rose 4.4 percent at 1141 GMT to lead Europe's gainers.

us92

Oil prices drop on report of US-Iran ceasefire deal pending Trump approval

Oil prices fell on Thursday after Axios reported that the US and Iran had reached an agreement for a 60-day ceasefire extension and the start of talks on Tehran's nuclear program, pending final approval from President Donald Trump. Brent crude dropped to a low of $93.36 a barrel from an earlier high of $98, before rebounding to about $94. The decline came despite fresh US airstrikes on an Iranian military site in Bandar Abbas, which Iran called a grave violation of the ceasefire.

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Oil prices fell on Thursday after Axios reported that the US and Iran had reached an agreement for a 60-day ceasefire extension and the start of talks on Tehran's nuclear program, pending final approval from President Donald Trump. Brent crude dropped to a low of $93.36 a barrel from an earlier high of $98, before rebounding to about $94. The decline came despite fresh US airstrikes on an Iranian military site in Bandar Abbas, which Iran called a grave violation of the ceasefire.

ua92

Ukraine to be fully integrated into EU air defense, drone priorities, von der Leyen says

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine will be fully integrated into Europe’s air defense, drone and counter-drone efforts, following a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky. She reiterated Europe’s full support as Russia intensifies its war, and said the Ukraine Support Loan would provide €28.3 billion ($32.9 billion) this year for Kyiv’s military needs. The move marks a shift from emergency aid toward long-term defense cooperation.

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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine will be fully integrated into Europe’s air defense, drone and counter-drone efforts, following a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky. She reiterated Europe’s full support as Russia intensifies its war, and said the Ukraine Support Loan would provide €28.3 billion ($32.9 billion) this year for Kyiv’s military needs. The move marks a shift from emergency aid toward long-term defense cooperation.

us90

US and Iran continue attacks amid negotiations; Israel expands operations in Lebanon

The United States and Iran have continued attacking each other even as they negotiate a permanent end to the war, with the US destroying boats it said were laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's Revolutionary Guards reportedly firing on US tankers in the same waterway. Israel has meanwhile expanded its strikes on Hezbollah and launched a ground offensive in Lebanon, further straining the ceasefire between the two countries.

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The United States and Iran have continued attacking each other even as they negotiate a permanent end to the war, with the US destroying boats it said were laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's Revolutionary Guards reportedly firing on US tankers in the same waterway. Israel has meanwhile expanded its strikes on Hezbollah and launched a ground offensive in Lebanon, further straining the ceasefire between the two countries.

ua90

Three-year-old girl critically wounded in Russian strike on Kherson playground, father killed

A three-year-old girl and her mother are in critical condition after a Russian strike on a playground in Kherson on May 27, which killed the father of the family. The girl underwent surgery to remove shrapnel from her head in Mykolaiv, while her six-year-old sister is in moderate condition after an operation. Local authorities urged families in dangerous areas to evacuate.

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A three-year-old girl and her mother are in critical condition after a Russian strike on a playground in Kherson on May 27, which killed the father of the family. The girl underwent surgery to remove shrapnel from her head in Mykolaiv, while her six-year-old sister is in moderate condition after an operation. Local authorities urged families in dangerous areas to evacuate.

gb90

Makerfield by-election shapes up as a Starmer-future referendum as Andy Burnham faces Reform UK on 18 June

Voters in Ashton-in-Makerfield, a Labour-safe seat since its 1983 creation, will choose on 18 June between Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who is bidding to enter Parliament after MP Josh Simons' surprise late-February resignation cleared the way, and Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, in a contest that could end Keir Starmer's premiership if Burnham wins. Labour lost all eight of its local council seats in Makerfield to Reform in May's local elections, and polling guru John Curtice told Al Jazeera the broad progressive and right-leaning blocs in the constituency are running level -- with Burnham's name adding about nine points to the Labour line. The new far-right Restore Party, endorsed by Elon Musk at the weekend, is polling about 7 percent and is positioned to split Reform's vote.

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Voters in Ashton-in-Makerfield, a Labour-safe seat since its 1983 creation, will choose on 18 June between Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who is bidding to enter Parliament after MP Josh Simons' surprise late-February resignation cleared the way, and Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, in a contest that could end Keir Starmer's premiership if Burnham wins. Labour lost all eight of its local council seats in Makerfield to Reform in May's local elections, and polling guru John Curtice told Al Jazeera the broad progressive and right-leaning blocs in the constituency are running level -- with Burnham's name adding about nine points to the Labour line. The new far-right Restore Party, endorsed by Elon Musk at the weekend, is polling about 7 percent and is positioned to split Reform's vote.

de88

EU opens first Foreign Subsidies probe into a Chinese deal over JD.com's €2.2 billion Ceconomy takeover

The European Commission has opened an investigation under its Foreign Subsidies Regulation into Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com's €2.2 billion proposed takeover of German electronics retailer Ceconomy -- the first time the rules, designed to prevent state-backed firms gaining an unfair edge in the EU single market, have been applied to a Chinese deal. The Commission said JD.com "may have received foreign subsidies distorting the EU internal market," citing possible "preferential financing, tax incentives and grants" potentially attributable to the Chinese government; JD.com rejected the concerns and said the deal would be financed "by bank loans and cash from our ordinary activities." Ceconomy owns MediaMarkt, Saturn and MediaWorld -- more than 1,000 stores across Germany, Italy, Spain and Austria -- and holds a 22 percent stake in France's Fnac Darty; the Commission was notified on 17 April and has 90 working days, until 2 October 2026, to decide.

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The European Commission has opened an investigation under its Foreign Subsidies Regulation into Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com's €2.2 billion proposed takeover of German electronics retailer Ceconomy -- the first time the rules, designed to prevent state-backed firms gaining an unfair edge in the EU single market, have been applied to a Chinese deal. The Commission said JD.com "may have received foreign subsidies distorting the EU internal market," citing possible "preferential financing, tax incentives and grants" potentially attributable to the Chinese government; JD.com rejected the concerns and said the deal would be financed "by bank loans and cash from our ordinary activities." Ceconomy owns MediaMarkt, Saturn and MediaWorld -- more than 1,000 stores across Germany, Italy, Spain and Austria -- and holds a 22 percent stake in France's Fnac Darty; the Commission was notified on 17 April and has 90 working days, until 2 October 2026, to decide.

tr88

EU rebukes Turkey for freezing Cyprus out of COP31 preparation as Ankara prepares to host the November summit in Antalya

The European Commission on Thursday called Turkey's exclusion of Cyprus from preparatory meetings for the COP31 climate summit -- which Ankara will host in Antalya in November -- "unacceptable," with EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra warning the Turkish government that "you deal with all of the 27, or none of the 27." Turkey is also refusing or ignoring bilateral meeting requests from Cyprus, which currently represents all 27 EU governments as holder of the bloc's rotating Council presidency in the first half of this year. Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said "Türkiye has assured us that Cyprus would not be excluded from future preparatory meetings," though Ankara maintains no diplomatic relations with the Republic of Cyprus and is the only government worldwide to recognise the breakaway Turkish Cypriot north.

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The European Commission on Thursday called Turkey's exclusion of Cyprus from preparatory meetings for the COP31 climate summit -- which Ankara will host in Antalya in November -- "unacceptable," with EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra warning the Turkish government that "you deal with all of the 27, or none of the 27." Turkey is also refusing or ignoring bilateral meeting requests from Cyprus, which currently represents all 27 EU governments as holder of the bloc's rotating Council presidency in the first half of this year. Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said "Türkiye has assured us that Cyprus would not be excluded from future preparatory meetings," though Ankara maintains no diplomatic relations with the Republic of Cyprus and is the only government worldwide to recognise the breakaway Turkish Cypriot north.