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Global Briefing May 23

Iran War Afterlife: Brooklyn Arrest, Berlin EU Compromise Fails, Paris Bars Ben-Gvir

Federal prosecutors charged Iraqi national Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi over a plot to kill Ivanka Trump in revenge for the 2020 strike on Qasem Soleimani; the U-Mich consumer sentiment index fell to a record 44.2. Ukrainian drones halted Metafrax Chemical 1,700 km inside Russia in Perm and hit the Sheskharis terminal at Novorossiysk. Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected Friedrich Merz's "associate" EU offer. France banned Itamar Ben-Gvir over a flotilla-detention abuse video. Turkey hosted 501 personnel from both Libyan armies at Efes 2026; China deployed over 100 vessels around Taiwan.

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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

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gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

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fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

Weekly brief
de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

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ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us95

Iran-linked Iraqi suspect held in Brooklyn allegedly plotted to kill Ivanka Trump

Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi, a 32-year-old Iraqi national arrested in Turkey on May 15 and extradited to the United States, had sworn to kill Ivanka Trump in revenge for the 2020 US drone strike that killed Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, the New York Post reported. Federal prosecutors have charged Al-Saadi in connection with 18 attacks or attempted attacks across Europe and the United States, including the London stabbings of two Jewish victims in April and the Toronto shooting at the US consulate building in March. He is being held in isolation at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn.

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Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi, a 32-year-old Iraqi national arrested in Turkey on May 15 and extradited to the United States, had sworn to kill Ivanka Trump in revenge for the 2020 US drone strike that killed Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, the New York Post reported. Federal prosecutors have charged Al-Saadi in connection with 18 attacks or attempted attacks across Europe and the United States, including the London stabbings of two Jewish victims in April and the Toronto shooting at the US consulate building in March. He is being held in isolation at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn.

ua95

Zelenskyy refuses 'associate' EU offer as Ukrainian drones hit Sheskharis terminal and Perm chemical plant

Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's proposal for an "associate" EU membership without voting rights, insisting in a letter to EU leaders that Ukraine must enter with the full rights of any other state. Overnight, Ukrainian drones struck the Sheskharis oil terminal at Novorossiysk and the Grushovaya storage operated by Transneft, hit the tanker Chrysalis in the Black Sea, and forced Metafrax Chemical 1,700 km away in Perm -- which Kyiv says supplies components for Russian drones, rocket engines and explosives -- to halt production. The strikes coincide with an E3-Ukraine video call between Zelenskyy, Merz, Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer on reviving peace diplomacy.

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's proposal for an "associate" EU membership without voting rights, insisting in a letter to EU leaders that Ukraine must enter with the full rights of any other state. Overnight, Ukrainian drones struck the Sheskharis oil terminal at Novorossiysk and the Grushovaya storage operated by Transneft, hit the tanker Chrysalis in the Black Sea, and forced Metafrax Chemical 1,700 km away in Perm -- which Kyiv says supplies components for Russian drones, rocket engines and explosives -- to halt production. The strikes coincide with an E3-Ukraine video call between Zelenskyy, Merz, Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer on reviving peace diplomacy.

ua92

Russia strikes Naftogaz oil and gas facilities in Kharkiv and Poltava oblasts for over 24 hours

Russian forces have been conducting a large-scale attack on Naftogaz Group oil and gas facilities in Kharkiv and Poltava oblasts for more than 24 hours, causing serious damage and major fires. Naftogaz CEO Serhii Koretskyi said personnel have been evacuated and it is currently impossible to assess the aftermath due to the risk of further strikes. The attack follows a series of recent Russian strikes on Naftogaz infrastructure, including a missile strike on 19 May in Chernihiv Oblast and a combined attack on 5 May that forced the company to import additional gas.

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Russian forces have been conducting a large-scale attack on Naftogaz Group oil and gas facilities in Kharkiv and Poltava oblasts for more than 24 hours, causing serious damage and major fires. Naftogaz CEO Serhii Koretskyi said personnel have been evacuated and it is currently impossible to assess the aftermath due to the risk of further strikes. The attack follows a series of recent Russian strikes on Naftogaz infrastructure, including a missile strike on 19 May in Chernihiv Oblast and a combined attack on 5 May that forced the company to import additional gas.

us90

US intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard resigns; Trump faces multiple domestic and foreign policy challenges

US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard announced her resignation on Friday, citing her husband's cancer diagnosis, effective June 30. The White House posted an AI-generated video of President Donald Trump throwing comedian Stephen Colbert into a trash can after Colbert's final late-night show. Separately, a federal judge dismissed the criminal case against Salvadoran migrant Kilmar Ábrego García, calling the prosecution an abuse of prosecutorial power.

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US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard announced her resignation on Friday, citing her husband's cancer diagnosis, effective June 30. The White House posted an AI-generated video of President Donald Trump throwing comedian Stephen Colbert into a trash can after Colbert's final late-night show. Separately, a federal judge dismissed the criminal case against Salvadoran migrant Kilmar Ábrego García, calling the prosecution an abuse of prosecutorial power.

ua90

Ukraine strikes Metafrax Chemicals plant 1,700 km inside Russia, halting production

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) struck the AKM chemical complex of Metafrax Chemicals in Gubakha, Perm Krai, 1,700 km from the border, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on May 23. The attack halted production at the facility, which supplies dozens of Russian military production facilities including aviation, drones, rocket engines, and explosives. It is the third Ukrainian deep-strike operation against the same complex in eight months.

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Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) struck the AKM chemical complex of Metafrax Chemicals in Gubakha, Perm Krai, 1,700 km from the border, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on May 23. The attack halted production at the facility, which supplies dozens of Russian military production facilities including aviation, drones, rocket engines, and explosives. It is the third Ukrainian deep-strike operation against the same complex in eight months.

us88

Republican confidence in Trump's economy erodes as consumer sentiment hits record low

Consumer sentiment hit an all-time low in the University of Michigan's May survey, with Republicans and independents reaching a low point of Trump's second term. An AP/NORC poll found around 6 in 10 Republicans approve of Trump's handling of the economy, down from about 8 in 10 in February. The softening GOP view represents "a crack we're seeing," said Gallup senior editor Megan Brenan.

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Consumer sentiment hit an all-time low in the University of Michigan's May survey, with Republicans and independents reaching a low point of Trump's second term. An AP/NORC poll found around 6 in 10 Republicans approve of Trump's handling of the economy, down from about 8 in 10 in February. The softening GOP view represents "a crack we're seeing," said Gallup senior editor Megan Brenan.

tr88

Turkey brings both Libyan rival armies into Efes 2026 in pivot to enforce 2019 Mediterranean economic-zone deal

Turkey for the first time hosted 501 personnel from both of Libya's rival armies -- the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity and Khalifa Haftar's Benghazi-based Government of National Stability -- at its Efes 2026 international military exercises, the Turkish defence ministry said. Analysts cited by France 24 frame the joint drills as a pivot by Ankara toward the east, intended to secure Haftar's parliamentary ratification of the 2019 Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum that creates a joint exclusive economic zone over energy-rich waters opposed by Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel. The ministry said it intends to hold further joint exercises with both Libyan armies.

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Turkey for the first time hosted 501 personnel from both of Libya's rival armies -- the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity and Khalifa Haftar's Benghazi-based Government of National Stability -- at its Efes 2026 international military exercises, the Turkish defence ministry said. Analysts cited by France 24 frame the joint drills as a pivot by Ankara toward the east, intended to secure Haftar's parliamentary ratification of the 2019 Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum that creates a joint exclusive economic zone over energy-rich waters opposed by Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel. The ministry said it intends to hold further joint exercises with both Libyan armies.

gb86

Milburn report warns of an 'anxious generation' as nearly 1 million UK 16-24s remain out of work or study

Government jobs adviser Alan Milburn -- the former Labour health secretary commissioned in November by Prime Minister Keir Starmer -- will publish an interim report next week warning of an "anxious generation" of young people, with the share of NEETs citing mental health as the primary obstacle to work rising from 24 percent in 2011 to 43 percent today. Of the 946,000 16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training, more than half have never worked, and a quarter are classed as unable to work due to long-term sickness or disability. Milburn argues businesses must adapt with mental health support and flexibility, and that the cohort could relieve labour shortages as net migration drops -- to 171,000 in 2024 from a 2022 peak of 891,000.

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Government jobs adviser Alan Milburn -- the former Labour health secretary commissioned in November by Prime Minister Keir Starmer -- will publish an interim report next week warning of an "anxious generation" of young people, with the share of NEETs citing mental health as the primary obstacle to work rising from 24 percent in 2011 to 43 percent today. Of the 946,000 16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training, more than half have never worked, and a quarter are classed as unable to work due to long-term sickness or disability. Milburn argues businesses must adapt with mental health support and flexibility, and that the cohort could relieve labour shortages as net migration drops -- to 171,000 in 2024 from a 2022 peak of 891,000.

us85

Toxic chemical leak forces evacuation of over 44,000 near Los Angeles

More than 44,000 residents have been evacuated in Garden Grove, California, after a tank containing 34,000 gallons of methyl methacrylate began leaking at an aerospace manufacturing facility. The Orange County Fire Authority warned the tank could either spill toxic chemicals or explode, with a possible explosion affecting adjacent tanks. No injuries have been reported as of Friday.

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More than 44,000 residents have been evacuated in Garden Grove, California, after a tank containing 34,000 gallons of methyl methacrylate began leaking at an aerospace manufacturing facility. The Orange County Fire Authority warned the tank could either spill toxic chemicals or explode, with a possible explosion affecting adjacent tanks. No injuries have been reported as of Friday.

de85

Berlin's 'associate' EU offer rebuffed by Zelenskyy as Scholz takes Global South brief and Bundestag delegation flies to Taiwan

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy formally rejected Chancellor Friedrich Merz's proposal to make Kyiv an "associate" EU member without voting rights, telling Council President Antonio Costa and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that Ukraine's place "must be complete -- full and equal." Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to chair a new North-South Committee on ties with the Global South, the role agreed in the CDU-SPD coalition deal. A five-person Bundestag delegation led by Green lawmaker Till Steffen flies to Taipei on May 24 -- 31 to meet President Lai Ching-te and Taiwanese parliamentarians, with Steffen telling Beijing not to interfere.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy formally rejected Chancellor Friedrich Merz's proposal to make Kyiv an "associate" EU member without voting rights, telling Council President Antonio Costa and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that Ukraine's place "must be complete -- full and equal." Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to chair a new North-South Committee on ties with the Global South, the role agreed in the CDU-SPD coalition deal. A five-person Bundestag delegation led by Green lawmaker Till Steffen flies to Taipei on May 24 -- 31 to meet President Lai Ching-te and Taiwanese parliamentarians, with Steffen telling Beijing not to interfere.