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Global Briefing May 17

Iran Ultimatum, Ukraine Drone Reach Test Washington

Trump told BFMTV Iran faces 'very tough times' if Pakistan-mediated talks fail, as the Pentagon priced the war at $29B and intelligence showed Iran has restored 30 of 33 Hormuz launchpads. Ukraine sent ~600 drones overnight across 14 Russian regions, killing four near Moscow; USF separately struck an FSB ship 1,100 km from the front near Kaspiysk. Trump advisers fear Xi may move on Taiwan within five years; Russian banks crossed the IMF's 10% crisis line for a third month and Putin signalled openness to talks. BASF cut 2,500 Ludwigshafen jobs while opening a €8.7B China complex.

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Trump warns Iran of 'very tough times' as Pentagon readies $29B escalation plan

US President Donald Trump told French network BFMTV that Iran faces "very tough times, very tough times" if Pakistan-mediated talks on a 14-point Hormuz-and-uranium deal collapse, as the Pentagon prepared to reactivate a joint US-Israeli air campaign within a week. The Pentagon now puts the US war bill at $29 billion — up $4 billion from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's $25 billion congressional estimate two weeks ago — while classified intelligence shows Iran has restored 30 of 33 missile launchpads along the Strait of Hormuz and retains 70% of its ballistic inventory. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington is pushing for a diplomatic exit because US military resources are finite.

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Ukraine launches ~600 drones across 14 regions of Russia, killing four near Moscow

Ukraine struck 14 Russian regions, Crimea and the Black and Azov seas overnight with close to 600 drones, killing four — three in the Moscow region and one in Belgorod — and wounding more than a dozen in what Russian state agency Tass called the largest attack on Moscow in over a year. The SBU said strikes hit the Angstrem microchip plant in Zelenograd, the Moscow oil refinery and the Solnechnogorsk pumping station on the Moscow oil-and-gas ring, while at the Belbek military airfield in occupied Crimea a Pantsir-S2 system, an S-400 radar hangar and UAV control stations were damaged. President Volodymyr Zelensky said the strikes — using Ukrainian-developed RS-1 Bars, FP-1 Firepoint and BARS-SM Gladiator drones flown over 500 km from the border — were a justified response to Russia's three-day Wed–Fri barrage, which killed 24 people in a Kyiv apartment block.

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BASF sells Ludwigshafen flats and cuts 2,500 jobs as €8.7bn China complex opens

German chemical giant BASF has cut around 2,500 jobs since 2022 at its Ludwigshafen headquarters and put thousands of company-owned apartments on the market, even as it inaugurated a €8.7 billion ($10 billion) complex in China last month — its largest-ever single investment. Works council chair Sinischa Horvat told AFP that "the mood is obviously not good" in the 175,000-person company town, where BASF still employs over 30,000 staff and has agreed to hold off on compulsory redundancies until at least 2028. The cuts sit inside a wider 124,000-job industrial drawdown across Germany in 2025 — roughly double the 2024 figure, according to consultancy EY — that has shrunk manufacturing's GDP share to 19.5%, with DIW president Marcel Fratzscher warning the losses are accelerating.

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KDP-linked site claims SDG commander Mazlum Abdi met Öcalan on Imrali; Ankara silent

A KDP-linked Iraqi Kurdistan website, Darka Mazi, has reported that Syrian Democratic Forces commander Mazlum Abdi and SDG external-relations head Ilham Ahmed were secretly taken to Imrali island prison in March through "a channel prepared by Turkey" to meet imprisoned PKK founder Abdullah Öcalan, three days after an earlier 9 May claim that PKK leaders Sabri Ok and Bese Hozat had been brought there in June 2025 before that year's symbolic weapon-burning ceremony in Sulaymaniyah. As of 17 May, neither the Presidency's Disinformation Centre, the Justice Ministry nor MİT — which is coordinating the "Terror-Free Turkey" process under chief İbrahim Kalın — has issued a formal denial. The unverified claims have opened debate inside the AK Parti base over whether Parliament should pass process legislation before the PKK disarms, with columnist Fatih Altaylı arguing such contacts are ordinary statecraft.

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