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Global Briefing May 1

Iran War at 60 Days: $25B Cost, Hormuz Crisis, No End

The US-Israeli war on Iran reached 60 days with no resolution as Tehran rejected the US-amended peace plan and the Pentagon priced the campaign at $25 billion. Russia ran the war's largest daytime drone barrage — 409 UAVs, 388 intercepted — as Ukraine struck the Tuapse and Perm refineries; Hormuz traffic stayed down 90 percent with 20,000 seafarers stranded. Major central banks held rates but signalled hikes; US gas hit $4.30. Mercosur–EU entered into force and Aung San Suu Kyi moved to house arrest.

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US-Israeli war on Iran enters third month with no decisive outcome in sight

The US-Israeli war on Iran has entered its third month with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a US naval blockade locked in stalemate, and indirect talks via Pakistani mediators producing no breakthrough. Veteran US negotiators Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer argue in Foreign Policy that the war has handed Tehran tactical setbacks but no strategic defeat, leaving Washington with no good options on the strait or the nuclear file.

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Russia launches 409 drones across Ukraine in daytime barrage; Ukraine strikes Tuapse refinery for fourth time and Perm AVT-4

Russia launched 409 attack UAVs against Ukraine between 08:00 and 15:30 on May 1, the largest single daytime drone attack of the war. Ukrainian air defence shot down or suppressed 388, with 16 confirmed hits at six locations and debris at 11 more. Roughly 250 of the 409 were Shahed-type drones, with the remainder Gerbera, Italmas and other UAVs launched from Shatalovo, Kursk, Oryol, Millerovo and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia and from Donetsk and Hvardiiske in occupied Crimea. Ternopil was struck by more than 50 Shaheds, with 10 injured and several districts losing power; Odesa and Kharkiv saw strikes on residential buildings and gas stations with multiple injuries. Ukrainian forces struck the Rosneft-owned Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai for the fourth time in two weeks, causing a major fire at the marine terminal, and damaged the AVT-4 unit at the Perm refinery. Ukrainian President Zelensky has been pushing the day's drone exchange as part of a defence-export-and-coproduction "Drone Deals" framework tied to ten-year defence agreements with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

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Turkish police arrest nearly 400 in Istanbul May Day crackdown; Workers' Party leader Erkan Bas pepper-sprayed

Turkish police arrested nearly 400 people in Istanbul on May 1 during May Day demonstrations, according to figures from the CHD Lawyers Association cited by AFP, with riot-control vehicles firing tear gas into crowds in the Mecidiyekoey and Besiktas districts. Turkish Workers' Party president Erkan Bas was filmed engulfed in pepper spray; union official Basaran Aksu was arrested moments after denouncing the police lockdown of Taksim Square. Earlier in the week Turkish authorities had issued arrest warrants against 62 people, of whom 46 -- including journalists, trade unionists and opposition figures -- were assessed as "likely to carry out attacks". In Ankara, about 100 coal miners completing a nine-day hunger strike over wage arrears joined the May Day march under heavy police presence. The day's demonstrations were called under the slogan "Bread. Peace. Freedom." Inflation in Turkey is officially measured at 30 percent but is estimated at closer to 40 percent by independent analysts. Last year's May Day protests, which moved to the Kadikoey area after the same Taksim lockdown, also ended with more than 400 arrests.

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Ukraine confirms drone strike on Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft at Shagol airbase deep inside Russia

Ukraine's General Staff confirmed on May 1 that its Unmanned Systems Forces struck several Su-57 stealth fighters and a Su-34 fighter-bomber at the Shagol airbase in Russia's Chelyabinsk Oblast on April 25, approximately 1,700 km from the Ukrainian border.

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