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Global Briefing May 22

Iran's Hormuz Blockade Sets Indo-Pacific Template as Russia Develops Seabed Nuclear Missiles

A Foreign Affairs analysis published Friday warns Iran's late-February closure of the 21-nautical-mile Strait of Hormuz has set a "cheap, fast, and devastating" template for the Strait of Malacca (40% of global trade), the Taiwan Strait (Bloomberg: a blockade could erase 5.3% of global GDP) and the Luzon and Lombok straits. The same day, German broadcasters WDR/NDR revealed Russia's secret "Skythen" programme to station nuclear-armed Skif missiles on the seabed; Ukraine documented 695 Russian torture methods and 406 POW deaths in custody; US economic confidence fell to -45 as Iran-war petrol prices pushed the gallon to $4.55; Pakistan's Field Marshal Munir landed in Tehran to finalise a US-Iran letter of intent.

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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

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gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

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fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

Weekly brief
de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

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ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us95

Gallup economic confidence falls to -45, worst since 2022, as Iran-war petrol prices push US gallon to $4.55

US economic confidence fell to -45 in Gallup's latest Economic Confidence Index, the worst reading since the 2022 cost-of-living crisis, with only 16 percent of Americans rating the economy as good or excellent and 76 percent saying conditions are getting worse. The poll, released Friday, ties the slide to inflation and a petrol-price surge to $4.55 per gallon — up from below $3 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February — driven by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington's naval siege of Iranian ports. The reading lands as a separate New York Times/Siena poll this week showed only 31 percent approve of President Donald Trump's handling of the war, even as Trump has said the economic fallout does not factor into his approach to Iran.

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US economic confidence fell to -45 in Gallup's latest Economic Confidence Index, the worst reading since the 2022 cost-of-living crisis, with only 16 percent of Americans rating the economy as good or excellent and 76 percent saying conditions are getting worse. The poll, released Friday, ties the slide to inflation and a petrol-price surge to $4.55 per gallon — up from below $3 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February — driven by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington's naval siege of Iranian ports. The reading lands as a separate New York Times/Siena poll this week showed only 31 percent approve of President Donald Trump's handling of the war, even as Trump has said the economic fallout does not factor into his approach to Iran.

ua95

Ukraine documents 695 Russian torture methods, 406 POW deaths, and 2,112 sham convictions in 'Made in Russia. Delivered to Captivity' project

Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets unveiled the "Made in Russia. Delivered to Captivity" project on Thursday, formally documenting 695 distinct torture methods used by Russia against Ukrainian prisoners of war and confirming that 406 Ukrainian POWs and civilian hostages with captured status verified by the ICRC or other sources have died from torture in Russian custody, most often from broken ribs and internal organ damage. He further reported 860 logged cases of improper detention conditions, 2,112 Ukrainians sentenced by Russian courts in what he called "a separate crime" of illegal rulings of 20-25 years or life, and a network of 186 verified holding sites across Russia, occupied territories and Siberia. Lubinets publicly criticised the International Committee of the Red Cross for declining his separate invitation to attend, citing the unanswered 2022 Olenivka massacre of 53 ICRC-verified POWs as evidence that "there is no international human rights protection system" functioning against Russia.

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Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets unveiled the "Made in Russia. Delivered to Captivity" project on Thursday, formally documenting 695 distinct torture methods used by Russia against Ukrainian prisoners of war and confirming that 406 Ukrainian POWs and civilian hostages with captured status verified by the ICRC or other sources have died from torture in Russian custody, most often from broken ribs and internal organ damage. He further reported 860 logged cases of improper detention conditions, 2,112 Ukrainians sentenced by Russian courts in what he called "a separate crime" of illegal rulings of 20-25 years or life, and a network of 186 verified holding sites across Russia, occupied territories and Siberia. Lubinets publicly criticised the International Committee of the Red Cross for declining his separate invitation to attend, citing the unanswered 2022 Olenivka massacre of 53 ICRC-verified POWs as evidence that "there is no international human rights protection system" functioning against Russia.

de95

WDR and NDR reveal Russia's secret 'Skythen' programme to station nuclear-armed Skif missiles on the seabed

German broadcasters WDR and NDR, after a months-long investigation citing Western intelligence sources, reported on May 21 that Russia is developing a secret programme codenamed "Skythen" to station nuclear-armed ballistic missiles on the seabed at depths of several hundred metres, where they would be hidden from NATO detection and remotely activated in wartime. The system pairs the 96-metre Severodvinsk-based vessel "Zvezdochka" — and possibly the special submarine "Sarov" — with a modified "Skif" missile derived from the submarine-launched "Sineva", with a reported range of several thousand kilometres and first tests said to have taken place "several years ago." The Pentagon studied an analogous concept codenamed "Orca" in 1980 before abandoning it, and the 1971 Seabed Treaty bars such emplacement in international waters but exempts a state's own coastal regions — the broadcasters said Russia would place Skythen in its own waters.

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German broadcasters WDR and NDR, after a months-long investigation citing Western intelligence sources, reported on May 21 that Russia is developing a secret programme codenamed "Skythen" to station nuclear-armed ballistic missiles on the seabed at depths of several hundred metres, where they would be hidden from NATO detection and remotely activated in wartime. The system pairs the 96-metre Severodvinsk-based vessel "Zvezdochka" — and possibly the special submarine "Sarov" — with a modified "Skif" missile derived from the submarine-launched "Sineva", with a reported range of several thousand kilometres and first tests said to have taken place "several years ago." The Pentagon studied an analogous concept codenamed "Orca" in 1980 before abandoning it, and the 1971 Seabed Treaty bars such emplacement in international waters but exempts a state's own coastal regions — the broadcasters said Russia would place Skythen in its own waters.

gb95

UK April public-sector borrowing hits £24.3bn, highest since 2020 Covid, as debt-interest sets April record £10.3bn and motor-fuel sales plunge 10.2%

UK public-sector borrowing reached £24.3 billion in April, the highest April figure since the Covid pandemic in 2020 and £4.9 billion above the year-earlier total, with debt-interest payments hitting a record £10.3 billion for the month and inflation-linked social benefits adding £2.7 billion to net spending, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday. Separately released retail figures showed sales volumes falling 1.3 percent over the same month — the steepest monthly drop in nearly a year — dragged down by a 10.2 percent collapse in motor-fuel sales, the largest since November 2020, as petrol prices spiked on the Iran war. Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood estimated that debt-interest costs in 2026/27 will now run about £15 billion above the Spring Statement assumption if gilt yields stay where they are, threatening Chancellor Rachel Reeves' £23.6 billion headroom against her own fiscal rule.

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UK public-sector borrowing reached £24.3 billion in April, the highest April figure since the Covid pandemic in 2020 and £4.9 billion above the year-earlier total, with debt-interest payments hitting a record £10.3 billion for the month and inflation-linked social benefits adding £2.7 billion to net spending, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday. Separately released retail figures showed sales volumes falling 1.3 percent over the same month — the steepest monthly drop in nearly a year — dragged down by a 10.2 percent collapse in motor-fuel sales, the largest since November 2020, as petrol prices spiked on the Iran war. Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood estimated that debt-interest costs in 2026/27 will now run about £15 billion above the Spring Statement assumption if gilt yields stay where they are, threatening Chancellor Rachel Reeves' £23.6 billion headroom against her own fiscal rule.

tr95

MHP leader Bahçeli urges Kılıçdaroğlu to step aside and broker compromise candidate with Özel after Ankara court voids CHP's 2023 congress

After Ankara's Regional Court of Appeals on May 21 declared the CHP's November 2023 congress "absolutely null and void" — reinstating Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as leader of Turkey's main opposition, suspending Özgür Özel's leadership team along with the party's Central Executive Board, Party Assembly and High Disciplinary Board, and rolling the CHP back to its pre-congress structure pending appeal — Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli intervened on CNN Türk to urge Kılıçdaroğlu to "undertake a historic responsibility," waive his return, and negotiate a joint formula with Özel. Bahçeli framed the call as protecting the CHP from chaos and preserving President Erdoğan's "Terror-Free Türkiye" roadmap ahead of the NATO summit, signalling a backroom plan in which both Kılıçdaroğlu and Özel would step aside in favour of a compromise candidate at a fresh congress. Özel rejected what he called the "comfortable, eternal opposition seats" being offered, with the ruling open to appeal before the Court of Cassation within two weeks.

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After Ankara's Regional Court of Appeals on May 21 declared the CHP's November 2023 congress "absolutely null and void" — reinstating Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as leader of Turkey's main opposition, suspending Özgür Özel's leadership team along with the party's Central Executive Board, Party Assembly and High Disciplinary Board, and rolling the CHP back to its pre-congress structure pending appeal — Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli intervened on CNN Türk to urge Kılıçdaroğlu to "undertake a historic responsibility," waive his return, and negotiate a joint formula with Özel. Bahçeli framed the call as protecting the CHP from chaos and preserving President Erdoğan's "Terror-Free Türkiye" roadmap ahead of the NATO summit, signalling a backroom plan in which both Kılıçdaroğlu and Özel would step aside in favour of a compromise candidate at a fresh congress. Özel rejected what he called the "comfortable, eternal opposition seats" being offered, with the ruling open to appeal before the Court of Cassation within two weeks.

fr92

Financial prosecutors search Élysée Palace in Pantheon-ceremony contracts probe, first such search since 2018 Benalla affair

French financial prosecutors searched the Élysée Palace on Thursday in a corruption probe over the awarding of public contracts to organise Pantheon induction ceremonies — the first search of the presidency since the 2018 Benalla affair during Emmanuel Macron's first term. The investigation, opened by financial prosecutor Pascal Prache in October 2025, focuses on the repeated selection of the events company Shortcut Events to host more than two decades of ceremonies at the Paris mausoleum until 2024, with each event estimated by Le Canard Enchaîné at around €2 million. The presidency authorised the search after April's attempt was rebuffed on constitutional inviolability grounds, stating the procedure does not target Macron and that safeguards for Article 67 and national-defence secrecy were in place.

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French financial prosecutors searched the Élysée Palace on Thursday in a corruption probe over the awarding of public contracts to organise Pantheon induction ceremonies — the first search of the presidency since the 2018 Benalla affair during Emmanuel Macron's first term. The investigation, opened by financial prosecutor Pascal Prache in October 2025, focuses on the repeated selection of the events company Shortcut Events to host more than two decades of ceremonies at the Paris mausoleum until 2024, with each event estimated by Le Canard Enchaîné at around €2 million. The presidency authorised the search after April's attempt was rebuffed on constitutional inviolability grounds, stating the procedure does not target Macron and that safeguards for Article 67 and national-defence secrecy were in place.

us92

Strait of Hormuz standoff enters fourth month with US and Iran under economic strain

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is approaching its fourth month, marked by mutual blockades: Iran charges ships up to $2 million for safe passage while the US enforces a naval embargo on Iranian oil exports. Iran is losing an estimated $435 million per day in trade, with public finances suffering an estimated $17 billion loss as of Friday, according to FDD senior fellow Miad Maleki. US President Donald Trump faces pressure from Gulf allies and domestic inflation ahead of November mid-term elections.

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The Strait of Hormuz crisis is approaching its fourth month, marked by mutual blockades: Iran charges ships up to $2 million for safe passage while the US enforces a naval embargo on Iranian oil exports. Iran is losing an estimated $435 million per day in trade, with public finances suffering an estimated $17 billion loss as of Friday, according to FDD senior fellow Miad Maleki. US President Donald Trump faces pressure from Gulf allies and domestic inflation ahead of November mid-term elections.

ua92

Ukraine and Russia agree on technical steps to evacuate 6,000 civilians from Oleshky area

Ukraine and Russia have agreed on technical steps to evacuate approximately 6,000 civilians, including about 200 children, from the Oleshky area of Kherson region, Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets said on May 22. The evacuation, planned toward Ukrainian-controlled territory, follows negotiations held on May 15. Lubinets described the situation in Oleshky as a humanitarian catastrophe, with civilians facing daily combat, drone strikes, and shortages of food and water.

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Ukraine and Russia have agreed on technical steps to evacuate approximately 6,000 civilians, including about 200 children, from the Oleshky area of Kherson region, Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets said on May 22. The evacuation, planned toward Ukrainian-controlled territory, follows negotiations held on May 15. Lubinets described the situation in Oleshky as a humanitarian catastrophe, with civilians facing daily combat, drone strikes, and shortages of food and water.

us90

Trump opposes Hormuz tolls, vows to seize Iran's uranium; 11 countries summon Israeli envoys over Ben-Gvir flotilla video; UN reports 125,000 Gaza skin infections

US President Donald Trump said the United States opposes any tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and vowed Iran will not be allowed to retain highly enriched uranium. Eleven countries, including eight European nations, summoned Israeli ambassadors over a video showing National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir overseeing the mistreatment of detained activists from the Global Sumud Flotilla. The UN’s Palestine agency reported more than 125,000 skin infection cases in Gaza linked to rats and parasites during the first five months of 2026.

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US President Donald Trump said the United States opposes any tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and vowed Iran will not be allowed to retain highly enriched uranium. Eleven countries, including eight European nations, summoned Israeli ambassadors over a video showing National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir overseeing the mistreatment of detained activists from the Global Sumud Flotilla. The UN’s Palestine agency reported more than 125,000 skin infection cases in Gaza linked to rats and parasites during the first five months of 2026.

ua90

Russian strike destroys UNHCR warehouse in Dnipro, killing two and destroying $1 million in aid

A Russian missile strike on a UNHCR warehouse in Dnipro on May 20 destroyed about 900 pallets of humanitarian supplies worth over $1 million and killed at least two people, the UN agency reported. UNHCR representative in Ukraine Bernadette Castel-Hollingsworth said it was the first time a UNHCR facility had been targeted since the start of the full-scale invasion. The attack is part of a broader pattern of strikes against humanitarian convoys, the UN said.

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A Russian missile strike on a UNHCR warehouse in Dnipro on May 20 destroyed about 900 pallets of humanitarian supplies worth over $1 million and killed at least two people, the UN agency reported. UNHCR representative in Ukraine Bernadette Castel-Hollingsworth said it was the first time a UNHCR facility had been targeted since the start of the full-scale invasion. The attack is part of a broader pattern of strikes against humanitarian convoys, the UN said.