Gallup economic confidence falls to -45, worst since 2022, as Iran-war petrol prices push US gallon to $4.55
US economic confidence fell to -45 in Gallup's latest Economic Confidence Index, the worst reading since the 2022 cost-of-living crisis, with only 16 percent of Americans rating the economy as good or excellent and 76 percent saying conditions are getting worse. The poll, released Friday, ties the slide to inflation and a petrol-price surge to $4.55 per gallon — up from below $3 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February — driven by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington's naval siege of Iranian ports. The reading lands as a separate New York Times/Siena poll this week showed only 31 percent approve of President Donald Trump's handling of the war, even as Trump has said the economic fallout does not factor into his approach to Iran.
Gallup's Economic Confidence Index registered -45 in the survey released on Friday, the worst reading since 2022 when prices rose sharply after the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Only 16 percent of respondents rated economic conditions in the United States as "good" or "excellent," while 49 percent called them poor and 34 percent fair. Looking forward, 76 percent of those surveyed said the economy is getting worse and 20 percent said it is getting better. The index is built from the average of current conditions, at -33, and economic outlook, at -56.
The headline driver is petrol. Pump prices have risen to an average of $4.55 per gallon (3.8 litres) from less than $3 before the US and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February, and consumer prices overall rose in March and April due to the energy crisis, according to government data cited by the survey. Iran responded to the US and Israeli strikes — which killed several senior officials including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and hundreds of civilians — by closing the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, sending oil and gas prices soaring. Washington in turn imposed a naval siege on Iranian ports. Although a ceasefire took effect in April, the blockades have persisted in the absence of a permanent settlement, and Iran is now claiming sovereignty over Hormuz, which operated as a free international passageway before the war. Although the United States is one of the world's largest oil producers, energy prices are set globally, so the disruption has spiked costs for American consumers.
The Gallup numbers deepen President Trump's political difficulties ahead of the November midterm elections, which will determine whether the Republican Party can retain control of Congress. A New York Times/Siena poll released earlier this week found that only 31 percent of voters approve of Trump's handling of the war with Iran. Trump campaigned as a president of "peace" and pledged to put domestic priorities ahead of foreign interventions, but his administration joined Israel in attacking Iran without direct provocation, arguing the campaign was necessary to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Trump's own intelligence chief, Tulsi Gabbard, has said Tehran is not building a nuclear bomb; Iran has denied seeking the weapon. Last month, the State Department released a legal justification of the war that cited the collective self-defence of Israel and the United States' "own inherent right of self-defence."
Asked earlier this month about the economic toll, Trump told reporters that the costs of the war did not affect his approach to Iran. "I don't think about Americans' financial situation. I don't think about anybody," he said. "I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That's all. That's the only thing that motivates me." Trump has argued petrol prices will fall rapidly once the conflict ends; the Gallup release is the latest in a sequence of negative polls for an administration whose Iran war has become inseparable from its domestic economic case.