The AfD has overtaken every mainstream party — leading nationally at 27% in the ARD-DeutschlandTrend while Merz's government sinks to a record-low 12% satisfaction — and is poised to win its first state premiership in the autumn east-German elections, with INSA finding 69% of Germans now expect it. It polls 41% in Saxony-Anhalt (vote 6 Sept) and 36% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 Sept), where it has adopted hardline manifestos demanding a 'border and return police', detention facilities and an explicit 'remigration agenda', and has drafted a 150–200-post plan to staff the state administration. The CDU 'firewall' is cracking on two fronts: at least six non-AfD MPs (likely CDU) backed an AfD candidate in a Bundestag committee vote, while local AfD chapters in Saxony seat members of the openly extremist Free Saxons in their groups despite a formal incompatibility ruling. The pushback is escalating in parallel — a Hanover court let Lower Saxony classify the state AfD as a confirmed extremist case, Brussels' party authority moved to strip the AfD-aligned ESN bloc of EU funding, and politically-motivated crime hit a record ~85,000 offences in 2025.

fr · France Free

The 2027 Presidential Race Begins

The 2027 presidential campaign opened in May–June 2026 as a wide-open contest for the first post-Macron Elysée, the president barred by the two-term limit from standing again. Three poles are already forming. The centre fractured into a duel: Renaissance secretary-general Gabriel Attal (37) was endorsed by the party's National Council 91% (221–22 against a primary), prompting former PM Élisabeth Borne to resign as council chair over his 'direction', and he formally declared on 22 May in Mur-de-Barrez before a 5,000-strong first rally in Paris on 30 May — but his rival Édouard Philippe (Horizons) launched first and has rejected Attal's proposed centre-right 'liaison committee' primary, leaving the bloc split. On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) declared his fourth bid on 3–4 May and held a 26,000-strong first rally in Saint-Denis on 7 June, declaring the left primary 'finished' and pledging a €1,700 minimum wage and retirement at 60 — but he polls only 13–15% and the broader left (Ruffin, Cazeneuve, Glucksmann, the PS) is fragmented and, per an Ipsos/Le Parisien poll, sums to barely a third of the vote with no candidate projected into the runoff. The far-right Rassemblement National leads the first round (Bardella ~34%) but hangs on a 7 July Paris appeals-court verdict on Marine Le Pen's eligibility; her lieutenant Jordan Bardella (30) is already running a shadow campaign — international travel, ambassador meetings, a 95%-complete programme — while the party struggles to secure a €10.5m campaign loan. The organising fear across the centre and right is a first-round elimination producing an LFI-vs-RN runoff, which is driving Attal's unity push, Wauquiez standing aside for LR's Bruno Retailleau (validated by 74% of members), and Beaune's call for a single 'republican' candidate by autumn.

gb · United Kingdom Free

Britain's Leadership Crisis and the Burnham Reset

Andy Burnham has begun his premiership with a visible break from Keir Starmer rather than a managerial handover. Scrapping the digital-ID programme and redirecting its estimated three-year cost toward affordability gives the reset a concrete policy marker, but the government still has to specify how the money will reach households and what identity infrastructure will remain.

tr · Turkey Free

Erdoğan's Crackdown and the CHP Leadership Crisis

The court-driven CHP leadership rupture is hardening into an organizational split. Ozel's New Party is building local structures from resigning CHP members, while the two camps dispute whether hundreds of thousands have left the former main opposition.

ua · Ukraine Free

Russia-Ukraine War: The Ground War & Front Lines

Ukraine recorded 258 combat clashes in one day, including 46 Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk sector. Russian units are preparing motorcycle and quad-bike attacks toward Dobropillia to reduce exposure to Ukrainian drones, trading armour protection for speed and dispersion.

us · United States Free

US-Iran War

Iran has conditioned any full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on six demands, while Washington is shifting from renewed strikes toward sanctions and economic pressure. The naval closure remains the central bargaining lever, with an Oman shipping arrangement still short of a political settlement.

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Global Briefing August 21

Power Now Means Keeping a Damaged System Moving

Washington now moves 15–20 tankers through Hormuz each night while threatening secondary sanctions on Iran, but the corridor carries only half the prewar oil flow. Russia's 168-drone barrage exploited Ukraine's Patriot shortage as strikes cut Black Sea grain capacity by a third. In the US, Treasury doubled long-bond buybacks after debt crossed $40 trillion—and yields barely moved.

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ua50

Russia launches massive overnight attack on Kyiv, killing at least 15

Russia launched a massive combined attack on Kyiv and the surrounding region on the night of August 19-20, using ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as 168 drones. The attack killed at least 15 people and injured over 40, damaging residential buildings, a children's hospital, a school, and other civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted most cruise missiles and drones but failed to stop any ballistic missiles, highlighting a critical shortage of Patriot interceptors. President Zelenskyy vowed a long-range response and called for more air defense support from allies. The attack also caused power outages, disrupted rail traffic, and prompted NATO allies Poland and Romania to activate air defenses.

us49

US announces 'Economic D-Day' against Iran, threatens sanctions on partners

US President Donald Trump announced an unprecedented 'economic warfare' campaign against Iran, threatening 'tremendous economic consequences' for any country providing a lifeline to Tehran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowed to impose the 'toughest sanctions in history' to collapse the Iranian regime, complementing the existing naval blockade. The UAE suspended all trade and financial transactions with Iran after accusing Tehran of firing ballistic missiles toward its waters, a claim Iran denied. The US is pressuring allies and China to join the isolation effort, with details of the new sanctions expected to be revealed on Monday.

us48

US politics liveblog: Trump aide Natalie Harp in focus, debt tops $40 trillion, tariffs on Canada suspended

A US politics liveblog covers multiple developments: Trump's personal assistant Natalie Harp is scrutinized after being among the few who secretly switched planes with Trump due to an alleged Iranian assassination threat; left-wing Democrat Angie Nixon wins a Florida primary; US national debt surpasses $40 trillion; Trump suspends tariffs on Canada for three days to finalize a Keystone XL pipeline deal; US and South Korea shorten military exercises; US sanctions ICC President Tomoko Akane; Trump's approval rating drops to 33%; and reports of a person impersonating Trump's chief of staff in contact with a UK official.

de48

Germany's 2026 Heat Deaths Surpass 14,000, Prompting Calls for Constitutional Change

Background: Germany's Robert Koch Institute had previously reported 9,600 heat-related deaths during the late-June heatwave and 11,900 total through July 26. Today: The RKI now estimates at least 14,000 heat-related deaths in 2026, surpassing the previous record of 8,900 in 2018. The majority of victims were aged 75 and older, with the highest risk among those over 75. German Medical Association president Klaus Reinhardt stated that most of these deaths could have been prevented with better measures. The SPD is proposing a constitutional amendment to make climate adaptation a joint federal-state task, requiring the federal government to fund at least half of infrastructure costs. SPD health policy spokesperson Christos Pantazis emphasized the need for financial backing. Municipalities demand at least 20 billion euros for hospital and nursing home air conditioning. The existing Health Heat Protection Plan, in place since 2023, is criticized for insufficient funding. Former health minister Karl Lauterbach noted that the true number of heat deaths may be underestimated due to conservative RKI methodology.

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