Open-Source Intelligence

Geopolitical and cyber intelligence.

Daily briefings on the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Ukraine, and Turkey, with continuous monitoring of global cyber threats.

Today on the desk
24 July 2026
Tracked Situations

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Deep tracking of the major situations shaping each country — one open sample per nation.

de · Germany Free

Germany's Rearmament & the Bundeswehr

Germany is trying to convert money into a credible army faster than the institution can absorb it. Pistorius's 'Responsibility for Europe' strategy — the Bundeswehr's first since 1955 — targets 260,000 active soldiers plus 200,000 reservists (460,000 total) by the mid-2030s, but the force sits at roughly 186,000, barely 800 above a year earlier, so the buildup depends on a voluntary-service questionnaire for every 18-year-old man and a legal trigger to reinstate conscription if recruiting falls short. Readiness, not topline, is the binding constraint: the government has admitted a repair backlog that left under half the PzH 2000 howitzers operational in May and Marder/Boxer fleets stuck in maintenance, while 72% of Germans tell Insa-style polling they doubt the Bundeswehr can defend the country. The clock is set externally — top general Carsten Breuer warns Russia could be capable of a large-scale war against NATO by 2029, and Trump's threatened withdrawal of 5,000 US troops from Vilseck (of ~35,000 in Germany) plus the cancelled intermediate-range missile deployment is forcing Berlin to backfill deep-strike and air-defence gaps it cannot yet fill. The 2027 budget sets defence at €105.8bn (3.1% of GDP), but money lands in a procurement system (BAAINBw) and a recruiting base that have failed to scale for a decade.

fr · France Free

The 2027 Presidential Race Begins

The 2027 presidential campaign opened in May–June 2026 as a wide-open contest for the first post-Macron Elysée, the president barred by the two-term limit from standing again. Three poles are already forming. The centre fractured into a duel: Renaissance secretary-general Gabriel Attal (37) was endorsed by the party's National Council 91% (221–22 against a primary), prompting former PM Élisabeth Borne to resign as council chair over his 'direction', and he formally declared on 22 May in Mur-de-Barrez before a 5,000-strong first rally in Paris on 30 May — but his rival Édouard Philippe (Horizons) launched first and has rejected Attal's proposed centre-right 'liaison committee' primary, leaving the bloc split. On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) declared his fourth bid on 3–4 May and held a 26,000-strong first rally in Saint-Denis on 7 June, declaring the left primary 'finished' and pledging a €1,700 minimum wage and retirement at 60 — but he polls only 13–15% and the broader left (Ruffin, Cazeneuve, Glucksmann, the PS) is fragmented and, per an Ipsos/Le Parisien poll, sums to barely a third of the vote with no candidate projected into the runoff. The far-right Rassemblement National leads the first round (Bardella ~34%) but hangs on a 7 July Paris appeals-court verdict on Marine Le Pen's eligibility; her lieutenant Jordan Bardella (30) is already running a shadow campaign — international travel, ambassador meetings, a 95%-complete programme — while the party struggles to secure a €10.5m campaign loan. The organising fear across the centre and right is a first-round elimination producing an LFI-vs-RN runoff, which is driving Attal's unity push, Wauquiez standing aside for LR's Bruno Retailleau (validated by 74% of members), and Beaune's call for a single 'republican' candidate by autumn.

gb · United Kingdom Free

Britain's Leadership Crisis and the Burnham Reset

Andy Burnham has begun his premiership with a visible break from Keir Starmer rather than a managerial handover. Scrapping the digital-ID programme and redirecting its estimated three-year cost toward affordability gives the reset a concrete policy marker, but the government still has to specify how the money will reach households and what identity infrastructure will remain.

tr · Turkey Free

Erdoğan's Crackdown and the CHP Leadership Crisis

Erdoğan has used the courts to dismantle the leadership of Turkey's main opposition party from the inside. On 21 May an Ankara appeals court voided the CHP's November 2023 congress on 'absolute nullity' grounds, removing elected chair Özgür Özel and reinstating his predecessor Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu; by 25–26 May a judge had ordered the seizure of CHP headquarters in Ankara, a loyalist trustee was installed, and police stormed the building, dragging Özel out and dispersing protests in Ankara and Izmir with tear gas and water cannon. The party split into rival administrations — Kılıçdaroğlu holding the building and convening the High Disciplinary Board, Özel commanding the parliamentary group and rallying thousands for an immediate primary (an internal CHP poll put approval of his removal at just 11%). The backdrop is jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the CHP's 2023 presidential pick, facing a sentence reported as high as 2,430 years; a parallel media purge (Tele 1 shut, its editor arrested on espionage charges); and AKP ally Devlet Bahçeli brokering a compromise congress while the opposition warns Erdoğan is engineering a snap election to escape term limits. Erdoğan, who denies any government role, hosts the 7–8 July NATO summit in Ankara as geopolitical cover, betting Western reliance on the Bosphorus and Trump's goodwill will mute criticism.

ua · Ukraine Free

Russia-Ukraine War: The Ground War & Front Lines

Russian small-unit infiltration is pressuring Ukrainian rear areas on two fronts. Ukraine is still clearing Russian troops inside Kostiantynivka, while the 225th Assault Regiment captured 64 infiltrators across the Zaporizhzhia sector. The captures show that infiltration can produce tactical penetrations without establishing durable control, but they also consume scarce Ukrainian assault forces in rear-area clearance.

us · United States Free

US-Iran War

The renewed US-Iran exchange now includes attacks on Gulf shipping, northern Iranian cities and the cleared site of the planned Darkhovin nuclear plant. The proposed ten-day pause remains a possible diplomatic off-ramp, but widening the target set to nuclear-related infrastructure increases escalation and miscalculation risk even where no atomic material is present.

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Global Briefing July 24

Washington's Reach vs Control: Iran, Ukraine, Tariffs, AI

American strikes entered a thirteenth night without reopening Hormuz, after a $37.5 billion campaign killed 18 US troops and injured more than 450. Ukraine, by contrast, turned drones into a Russian fuel shortage; Trump rebuilt his tariff wall under Section 301; and China's open-weight Kimi K3 made a proposed US ban harder to enforce.

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us49

US strikes reported in multiple regions of Iran; two injured in Bandar Abbas

Background: The US and Iran have been engaged in escalating military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran reporting 14 killed in earlier US strikes and the IRGC retaliating against US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Today: On 24 July 2026, new US missile strikes hit multiple regions across Iran, including Ahvaz, Bandar Abbas, Omidiyeh, Andimeshk, Qeshm Island, Konarak, Jask, Khorramabad, Khandab, and central Yazd province. Two people were injured in Bandar Abbas, and an electricity pole was damaged, severing a power line. Air defense systems were activated in Tehran in response to a 'hostile' threat.

fr48

New wildfire in southwestern France forces 12,000 evacuations

Following a series of wildfires across southern Europe earlier this summer, a new blaze near Le Porge in the Gironde region of southwestern France has burned between 1,400 and 2,000 hectares of pine forest in the Landes de Gascogne massif, forcing the evacuation of up to 12,000 residents and tourists, including from six campsites and a naturist estate north of Cap Ferret. No casualties have been reported. Authorities have banned forestry work with combustion engines in Gironde, which is on red alert. The fire may have been sparked by a cleaning machine on a forest track. The fire season has started earlier than usual due to heatwaves and drought linked to climate change.

us48

US strikes kill 4, injure 7 near Ahvaz and Khorramabad in Iran; regional spillover reported

The US-Iran conflict continues as US strikes near Ahvaz and Khorramabad killed four and injured seven, according to Iranian media. Air raid sirens were activated in Jordan's capital Amman, and explosions were heard near US bases in Kuwait, indicating the conflict's regional spillover.

ua48

Ukraine strikes Russian defense plant in Kirov, oil facilities, and Wildberries warehouses in multi-wave long-range attack

On July 23-24, 2026, Ukraine conducted a coordinated long-range strike campaign deep inside Russia, hitting the Avitek military plant in Kirov (1,200 km from the border) with a Flamingo cruise missile, damaging Wildberries logistics warehouses in St. Petersburg, Simferopol, and Voronezh, and striking oil infrastructure in Bashkortostan and Ulyanovsk Oblast. President Zelensky confirmed the strikes, framing them as 'long-range sanctions' targeting Russian military logistics and defense production. The attacks caused fires, casualties, and disrupted airport operations in St. Petersburg. Russia claimed to have intercepted 571 drones overnight.

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Cyber Threat Intelligence
Daily snapshot · 23 July 2026
Full dashboard
Events tracked
248
Threat actors
113
Categories
9
Regions hit
56
By attack category
Ransomware
56
Data Breach
51
Web Defacement
47
Data Leak
39
Access Brokerage
22
DDoS
19
Top victim countries
United States
31
Iran
18
France
16
Canada
10
Indonesia
10
India
9
Aggregated from 9 categories · 56 regions Open dashboard
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