Open-Source Intelligence

Geopolitical and cyber intelligence.

Daily briefings on the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Ukraine, and Turkey, with continuous monitoring of global cyber threats.

Today on the desk
3 September 2026
Tracked Situations

Threads

Deep tracking of the major situations shaping each country — one open sample per nation.

de · Germany Free

Germany's Far-Right Surge in the East

The AfD has overtaken every mainstream party — leading nationally at 27% in the ARD-DeutschlandTrend while Merz's government sinks to a record-low 12% satisfaction — and is poised to win its first state premiership in the autumn east-German elections, with INSA finding 69% of Germans now expect it. It polls 41% in Saxony-Anhalt (vote 6 Sept) and 36% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 Sept), where it has adopted hardline manifestos demanding a 'border and return police', detention facilities and an explicit 'remigration agenda', and has drafted a 150–200-post plan to staff the state administration. The CDU 'firewall' is cracking on two fronts: at least six non-AfD MPs (likely CDU) backed an AfD candidate in a Bundestag committee vote, while local AfD chapters in Saxony seat members of the openly extremist Free Saxons in their groups despite a formal incompatibility ruling. The pushback is escalating in parallel — a Hanover court let Lower Saxony classify the state AfD as a confirmed extremist case, Brussels' party authority moved to strip the AfD-aligned ESN bloc of EU funding, and politically-motivated crime hit a record ~85,000 offences in 2025.

fr · France Free

The 2027 Presidential Race Begins

The 2027 presidential campaign opened in May–June 2026 as a wide-open contest for the first post-Macron Elysée, the president barred by the two-term limit from standing again. Three poles are already forming. The centre fractured into a duel: Renaissance secretary-general Gabriel Attal (37) was endorsed by the party's National Council 91% (221–22 against a primary), prompting former PM Élisabeth Borne to resign as council chair over his 'direction', and he formally declared on 22 May in Mur-de-Barrez before a 5,000-strong first rally in Paris on 30 May — but his rival Édouard Philippe (Horizons) launched first and has rejected Attal's proposed centre-right 'liaison committee' primary, leaving the bloc split. On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) declared his fourth bid on 3–4 May and held a 26,000-strong first rally in Saint-Denis on 7 June, declaring the left primary 'finished' and pledging a €1,700 minimum wage and retirement at 60 — but he polls only 13–15% and the broader left (Ruffin, Cazeneuve, Glucksmann, the PS) is fragmented and, per an Ipsos/Le Parisien poll, sums to barely a third of the vote with no candidate projected into the runoff. The far-right Rassemblement National leads the first round (Bardella ~34%) but hangs on a 7 July Paris appeals-court verdict on Marine Le Pen's eligibility; her lieutenant Jordan Bardella (30) is already running a shadow campaign — international travel, ambassador meetings, a 95%-complete programme — while the party struggles to secure a €10.5m campaign loan. The organising fear across the centre and right is a first-round elimination producing an LFI-vs-RN runoff, which is driving Attal's unity push, Wauquiez standing aside for LR's Bruno Retailleau (validated by 74% of members), and Beaune's call for a single 'republican' candidate by autumn.

gb · United Kingdom Free

Britain's Leadership Crisis and the Burnham Reset

Andy Burnham has begun his premiership with a visible break from Keir Starmer rather than a managerial handover. Scrapping the digital-ID programme and redirecting its estimated three-year cost toward affordability gives the reset a concrete policy marker, but the government still has to specify how the money will reach households and what identity infrastructure will remain.

tr · Turkey Free

Erdoğan's Crackdown and the CHP Leadership Crisis

The court-driven CHP leadership rupture is hardening into an organizational split. Ozel's New Party is building local structures from resigning CHP members, while the two camps dispute whether hundreds of thousands have left the former main opposition.

ua · Ukraine Free

Russia-Ukraine War: The Ground War & Front Lines

Ukraine recorded 258 combat clashes in one day, including 46 Russian assaults in the Pokrovsk sector. Russian units are preparing motorcycle and quad-bike attacks toward Dobropillia to reduce exposure to Ukrainian drones, trading armour protection for speed and dispersion.

us · United States Free

US-Iran War

Iran has conditioned any full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on six demands, while Washington is shifting from renewed strikes toward sanctions and economic pressure. The naval closure remains the central bargaining lever, with an Oman shipping arrangement still short of a political settlement.

In Focus

Top Stories

Highest-priority developments worldwide

All 65 events
ua50

Russia launches massive overnight drone and missile attack on Ukraine, injuring dozens and causing widespread power outages

On the night of September 2-3, Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine involving 163 drones and missiles, striking 13 regions including Kyiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 135 drones. The attack injured at least 17 people in Odesa, including three children, when a 21-story residential building was hit, and killed one person in the Zaporizhzhia region. Strikes on energy infrastructure caused power outages in five oblasts, with grid restrictions in Odesa. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it a 'new escalation' and urged stronger air defense support from Europe.

us49

Iran lays more mines in Strait of Hormuz as US threatens further strikes

Background: The US and Iran have been in conflict since February 28, with a fragile ceasefire that collapsed. After 13 days of daily US strikes, President Trump ordered a halt as Omani mediation advanced on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Today, Iran laid more naval mines in the southern Strait of Hormuz, dismissing US claims of control. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed grave concern over renewed strikes and urged a return to diplomacy. Iran's health ministry reported 18 killed and 142 wounded in recent US strikes, including two women and a child among the dead. President Trump said Washington is prepared to attack again, stating 'We blew up much more than their radar last night' and that another strike could occur anytime. White House envoy Steve Witkoff met with UAE's national security adviser on Sardinia to discuss next steps.

us48

Trump hints at possible CIA support for uprising in Iran

Background: In July and August 2026, President Trump hinted at possible escalation against Iran, including strikes on nuclear sites, while leaving uncertainty over nuclear talks. On August 12, 2026, in unscheduled Oval Office remarks, Trump declined to confirm whether he would authorize the CIA to arm Iranians to encourage a violent uprising, stating it 'wouldn't be appropriate to say.' This follows US strikes on Iran's southern coast that killed 18 people, including two children at a wedding, and Trump's TruthSocial post asking when Iranians will rise up. He also referenced an unverified figure of 65,000 protesters killed in Iran.

tr48

Turkey detains 13 in new corruption probe linked to former Istanbul mayor Imamoglu

Turkish authorities detained 13 suspects and launched a manhunt for another on September 3, 2026, in an investigation into a criminal gang allegedly led by former Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. The detentions focus on corruption in municipal tenders organized by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) during Imamoglu's tenure. Among those detained are Mustafa Sökmen, head of the municipality's procurement department, and Rezzan Neslihan Vural, head of financial services. This operation is part of the broader corruption case against Imamoglu, who faces charges including bribery, tender rigging, and fraud. The ongoing trial of the 'Imamoglu criminal gang' held its 74th hearing on Wednesday, with 407 defendants. Prosecutors are seeking a prison sentence of up to 2,430 years for Imamoglu. The court is expected to decide on extending detentions on Friday.

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Cyber Threat Intelligence
Daily snapshot · 2 September 2026
Full dashboard
Events tracked
248
Threat actors
116
Categories
10
Regions hit
41
By attack category
Data Breach
70
Web Defacement
46
DDoS
43
Access Brokerage
40
Ransomware
23
Data Leak
19
Top victim countries
Taiwan
35
United States
33
Indonesia
24
Israel
20
Iran
15
India
14
Aggregated from 10 categories · 41 regions Open dashboard
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