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Global Briefing May 9

Two Ceasefires in Iran, Ukraine as Western Alliance Splits

Trump's Project Freedom safe-zone in the Strait of Hormuz collapsed after 50 hours; leaked CIA assessments put Iran's surviving stockpile at 70 percent of missiles, CENTCOM disabled two Iranian tankers, and the Trump-Netanyahu alliance showed visible strain. Hezbollah claimed 26 attacks Friday, two inside Israel; the UAE reported a fresh Iranian strike. The US-brokered May 9-11 Ukraine ceasefire took effect even as Russian drones killed civilians in Polohy and Chernihiv. Four retired generals warned in the F.A.S. of a five-year window for a Russian probe into the Baltics.

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Trump's 'Project Freedom' safe-zone in Strait of Hormuz collapses after 50 hours as Iran retains 70% of missile stockpile

Donald Trump's unilateral Project Freedom — a safe-shipping zone on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz protected by more than 100 fighter jets and several naval destroyers — collapsed after 50 hours, defeated by Saudi objections, an absence of consultation with the shipping industry, and the fact that only two merchant vessels used it. Leaked CIA assessments put Iran's surviving capability at 70 percent of its missiles, 75 percent of its launchers and roughly half of its Shahed attack drones, while a leaked US intelligence estimate, published this week by the Washington Post, gives Tehran three to four months before more severe economic hardship sets in.

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Russian FPV drone kills 67-year-old driver in Polohy district as US-brokered May 9-11 ceasefire takes effect

A Russian FPV drone struck a civilian car in the Polohy district of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region on May 9, killing the 67-year-old driver on the spot and injuring a 62-year-old man and a 61-year-old woman, hours into a US-brokered May 9-11 humanitarian pause meant to enable an exchange of 1,000 prisoners on each side. The same overnight Russian assault, launched at 18:00 on May 8 with one Iskander-M ballistic missile from Crimea and 43 drones, also killed a 70-year-old man and his 49-year-old son in a strike on an agricultural enterprise in the Chernihiv region's Novhorod-Siverskyi district.

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Four retired generals tell F.A.S. NATO faces a five-year window in which Russia could attack the Baltics, with Germany pulled in as logistics hub

Air Marshal Greg Bagwell (UK), Lt Gen Ben Hodges (US), Maj Gen Mick Ryan (Australia) and Lt Gen Jürgen-Joachim von Sandrart (Germany) told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung that Russia could attack NATO inside roughly five years, most likely a limited push into the Baltics designed to test Article 5 — and that Germany would be drawn in because every major NATO supply route runs through it. Bagwell put the window at "perhaps five years"; Von Sandrart said the greatest danger runs "until" 2029, not from it. The warnings land as Donald Trump moves to pull at least 5,000 US troops from Germany and shelve the Tomahawk battalion Joe Biden had pledged for this year, depleted further by the $25 billion Iran campaign.

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Labour MP Catherine West threatens to collect signatures for a leadership contest by Monday after Starmer loses 1,400 council seats

Catherine West, Labour MP for Hornsey and Friern Barnet and a former junior Foreign Office minister, told the BBC's PM programme she will start collecting signatures from the Parliamentary Labour Party on Monday morning to trigger a leadership contest if no cabinet challenger to Keir Starmer has emerged. Her preferred outcome, she said, is a cabinet reshuffle that moves Starmer to an "international role." Labour has lost more than 1,400 English council representatives, control of Bradford, Calderdale, Wakefield, Leeds and Barnsley — the latter ending more than 50 years of Labour rule — and First Minister Eluned Morgan's Senedd seat in Wales, where Ken Skates has taken over as interim leader.

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