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Global Briefing May 24

Trump Claims Iran Deal as Russian Missiles Hit Kyiv, Gas Tops $4.56

Trump said a US-Iran deal is "largely negotiated, subject to finalization", the New York Times reported Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and US gas hit $4.56. Russia hit Kyiv with 90 missiles, 600 drones and an Oreshnik, damaging the Cabinet of Ministers and killing four; the EU's Kaja Kallas branded the Oreshnik use "reckless nuclear-brinkmanship" and Ukraine struck back at the Tamanneftegaz terminal. UK AISI said Claude Mythos and GPT-5.5 took over networks 60 and 30 percent of the time; WCK halved Gaza meals to 500,000 daily; and Ebola spread from Congo into Uganda.

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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

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gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

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fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

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de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

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ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us100

Trump says US-Iran agreement 'largely negotiated' as Tehran backs draft plan to reopen Hormuz

President Trump said on May 24 that an agreement between the United States, Iran "and the various other countries" to end the two-month war "has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization", with the terms discussed in a "very good call" with regional leaders and separately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The New York Times, citing three senior Iranian officials, reported Tehran has agreed to a draft plan to end fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement follows Trump's May 19 decision to postpone planned strikes as Gulf leaders said a deal was close, and his May 20 call with Netanyahu over a Qatar- and Pakistan-drafted peace memo.

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President Trump said on May 24 that an agreement between the United States, Iran "and the various other countries" to end the two-month war "has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization", with the terms discussed in a "very good call" with regional leaders and separately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The New York Times, citing three senior Iranian officials, reported Tehran has agreed to a draft plan to end fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement follows Trump's May 19 decision to postpone planned strikes as Gulf leaders said a deal was close, and his May 20 call with Netanyahu over a Qatar- and Pakistan-drafted peace memo.

us98

US national average gas price hits $4.56 as Iran war strains summer travel

The national average price of gasoline in the United States rose to $4.56 a gallon on Wednesday, the highest level this year, as Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global energy supplies. Every state has now topped $4 a gallon, with Washington state setting an all-time record at $5.79 and Alaska averaging $5.27. The spike has become a central political issue ahead of the Memorial Day weekend, with both Democrats and Republicans criticizing the White House's handling of the crisis.

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The national average price of gasoline in the United States rose to $4.56 a gallon on Wednesday, the highest level this year, as Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global energy supplies. Every state has now topped $4 a gallon, with Washington state setting an all-time record at $5.79 and Alaska averaging $5.27. The spike has become a central political issue ahead of the Memorial Day weekend, with both Democrats and Republicans criticizing the White House's handling of the crisis.

ua98

Russia strikes Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers and Foreign Ministry in 90-missile, 600-drone Kyiv attack

Russia struck Kyiv overnight on May 23-24 with 90 missiles and 600 drones, including an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, damaging the Cabinet of Ministers and Foreign Ministry buildings, two museums, a philharmonic hall, a theatre, a library, a university, a church, a monastery and around 30 residential buildings. Two people were killed and 81 injured in the capital; four were killed and roughly 100 injured across Ukraine, and a Hrushevskoho Street block containing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's flat was hit. The attack follows May 20 strikes that killed four across six regions and a 1,567-drone, 56-missile two-day assault on May 13-14.

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Russia struck Kyiv overnight on May 23-24 with 90 missiles and 600 drones, including an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, damaging the Cabinet of Ministers and Foreign Ministry buildings, two museums, a philharmonic hall, a theatre, a library, a university, a church, a monastery and around 30 residential buildings. Two people were killed and 81 injured in the capital; four were killed and roughly 100 injured across Ukraine, and a Hrushevskoho Street block containing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's flat was hit. The attack follows May 20 strikes that killed four across six regions and a 1,567-drone, 56-missile two-day assault on May 13-14.

ua96

World leaders condemn 'state terrorism' after massive Russian assault on Kyiv

A broad coalition of international heads of state and foreign ministers condemned Russia's overnight aerial bombardment of Kyiv on May 24, with several capitals labeling the operation an act of state terrorism. The attack involved 90 missiles and 600 strike and decoy drones, hitting over 40 locations, killing two civilians and wounding 77 others. Albania's ambassador was directly endangered when a weapon struck his residential complex, prompting Tirana to summon Russia's ambassador.

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A broad coalition of international heads of state and foreign ministers condemned Russia's overnight aerial bombardment of Kyiv on May 24, with several capitals labeling the operation an act of state terrorism. The attack involved 90 missiles and 600 strike and decoy drones, hitting over 40 locations, killing two civilians and wounding 77 others. Albania's ambassador was directly endangered when a weapon struck his residential complex, prompting Tirana to summon Russia's ambassador.

gb95

Thames Valley Police add 2002 Royal Ascot allegation to Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor inquiry as US delays handing over Epstein documents

Thames Valley Police are investigating an allegation, reported by the Sunday Times, that Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor behaved inappropriately towards a woman at Royal Ascot in 2002, the year of Queen Elizabeth II's Golden Jubilee, as the force widens its inquiry to cover sexual misconduct alongside an existing probe for misconduct in public office. The king's brother, who denies all wrongdoing, was arrested on his 66th birthday in February after the release of US Department of Justice documents that alleged he had passed information to Jeffrey Epstein; TVP is also assessing a separate claim from a US-resident woman that she was taken to a Windsor address in 2010 for sexual purposes. UK forces still only hold printouts from the US DoJ website, with US authorities declining to release originals and telling British police that a formal international legal request "could take months, if it is agreed to at all".

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Thames Valley Police are investigating an allegation, reported by the Sunday Times, that Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor behaved inappropriately towards a woman at Royal Ascot in 2002, the year of Queen Elizabeth II's Golden Jubilee, as the force widens its inquiry to cover sexual misconduct alongside an existing probe for misconduct in public office. The king's brother, who denies all wrongdoing, was arrested on his 66th birthday in February after the release of US Department of Justice documents that alleged he had passed information to Jeffrey Epstein; TVP is also assessing a separate claim from a US-resident woman that she was taken to a Windsor address in 2010 for sexual purposes. UK forces still only hold printouts from the US DoJ website, with US authorities declining to release originals and telling British police that a formal international legal request "could take months, if it is agreed to at all".

tr95

Türkiye opens Akhalkalaki-Kars freight rail to Armenian trade as Pashinyan hails access to EU and Russia-China corridors

Türkiye and Armenia opened the Akhalkalaki-Kars railway line to Armenian imports and exports on May 24, with Türkiye's special representative for normalisation Serdar Kılıç saying the move would "improve quadruple cooperation among Türkiye, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia" and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan thanking partners in Türkiye and Georgia. Pashinyan said the route gives Armenia rail access to Russia via Georgia and Azerbaijan, to China via Russia and Kazakhstan, and strengthens its connection with the European Union through Türkiye and Georgia. He added that rail links with Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Iran were expected to follow, capping a normalisation track that earlier this month included Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz's visit to Yerevan and the signing of a joint deal to restore the ancient Ani Bridge.

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Türkiye and Armenia opened the Akhalkalaki-Kars railway line to Armenian imports and exports on May 24, with Türkiye's special representative for normalisation Serdar Kılıç saying the move would "improve quadruple cooperation among Türkiye, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia" and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan thanking partners in Türkiye and Georgia. Pashinyan said the route gives Armenia rail access to Russia via Georgia and Azerbaijan, to China via Russia and Kazakhstan, and strengthens its connection with the European Union through Türkiye and Georgia. He added that rail links with Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Iran were expected to follow, capping a normalisation track that earlier this month included Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz's visit to Yerevan and the signing of a joint deal to restore the ancient Ani Bridge.

us90

Anthropic and OpenAI advanced AI models demonstrate unprecedented hacking capabilities, raising cyberattack concerns

Anthropic's Claude Mythos and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 have shown the ability to identify and exploit software vulnerabilities at a pace exceeding human experts, according to nine cybersecurity researchers and tech leaders who tested the models. The UK's AI Security Institute found Mythos could fully take over a corporate network in 60% of attempts, while GPT-5.5 succeeded in 30% of tries. The Trump administration has delayed signing an executive order that would establish voluntary AI model testing, amid concerns about stifling innovation.

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Anthropic's Claude Mythos and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 have shown the ability to identify and exploit software vulnerabilities at a pace exceeding human experts, according to nine cybersecurity researchers and tech leaders who tested the models. The UK's AI Security Institute found Mythos could fully take over a corporate network in 60% of attempts, while GPT-5.5 succeeded in 30% of tries. The Trump administration has delayed signing an executive order that would establish voluntary AI model testing, amid concerns about stifling innovation.

gb90

UK staple food prices surge: eggs, milk, and bread costs driven by avian flu, Ukraine war, and energy crisis

The average price of a box of six supermarket own-brand free-range eggs has risen from £1 in 2022 to £1.80 today, while four pints of semi-skimmed milk increased from £1.29 to £1.65 and a loaf of basic white bread from 65p to 74p, according to market researchers Assosia. The increases are attributed to the UK's worst avian flu outbreak between 2021 and 2023, Russia's invasion of Ukraine driving up grain and energy costs, and ongoing Middle East conflict. Producer input prices rose 7.7% in the year to April, the biggest increase in over three years, while factory gate prices rose only 4%.

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The average price of a box of six supermarket own-brand free-range eggs has risen from £1 in 2022 to £1.80 today, while four pints of semi-skimmed milk increased from £1.29 to £1.65 and a loaf of basic white bread from 65p to 74p, according to market researchers Assosia. The increases are attributed to the UK's worst avian flu outbreak between 2021 and 2023, Russia's invasion of Ukraine driving up grain and energy costs, and ongoing Middle East conflict. Producer input prices rose 7.7% in the year to April, the biggest increase in over three years, while factory gate prices rose only 4%.

fr88

Mistral and Dust founders warn Europe risks US 'digital colonialism' in AI

French AI startup founders Gabriel Hubert of Dust and Arthur Mensch of Mistral AI warn the conditions for long-term European AI sovereignty are not in place. Mensch told a National Assembly commission on structural digital dependencies on May 12 that Europeans "do not have the time" before they risk a form of US "digital colonialism" and an EU reduced to a "vassal state". Hubert invokes de Gaulle's industrial policy and France's TGV and nuclear-plant programmes as the comparable scale of effort, warning that without low-cost, low-carbon, secure sovereign AI Europe will simply buy it from the Americans.

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French AI startup founders Gabriel Hubert of Dust and Arthur Mensch of Mistral AI warn the conditions for long-term European AI sovereignty are not in place. Mensch told a National Assembly commission on structural digital dependencies on May 12 that Europeans "do not have the time" before they risk a form of US "digital colonialism" and an EU reduced to a "vassal state". Hubert invokes de Gaulle's industrial policy and France's TGV and nuclear-plant programmes as the comparable scale of effort, warning that without low-cost, low-carbon, secure sovereign AI Europe will simply buy it from the Americans.

us85

Texas Republican Senate runoff between Paxton and Cornyn could open door for Democrat Talarico

Texas voters go to the polls on Tuesday for a Republican Senate primary runoff between Attorney General Ken Paxton, endorsed by President Donald Trump, and incumbent Senator John Cornyn. The winner will face Democratic state Representative James Talarico in November’s midterm election. Polls show Talarico tied with or leading both Republican candidates, raising the possibility of a Democratic flip in a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.

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Texas voters go to the polls on Tuesday for a Republican Senate primary runoff between Attorney General Ken Paxton, endorsed by President Donald Trump, and incumbent Senator John Cornyn. The winner will face Democratic state Representative James Talarico in November’s midterm election. Polls show Talarico tied with or leading both Republican candidates, raising the possibility of a Democratic flip in a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.