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Global Briefing May 21

Iran Hardens Nuclear Stance as War Costs Mount

Iran's Supreme Leader ordered the country's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium kept inside Iran, breaking with a clause Trump had committed to Israel. A Congressional Research Service tally put US aircraft losses in the war at 42 worth $29 billion as Ukrainian forces claimed 400 sq km — the largest gains since Kursk — and Washington's $1.776 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund drew a Capitol Police lawsuit. Germany charged two Quds-Force operatives over a Berlin assassination plot; EasyJet booked a £552m loss; and Australia's productivity minister named rogue AI as a leading extinction risk.

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Ukraine claims 400 sq km of southern territory and most of Kupiansk since winter, largest gains since Kursk

Ukrainian counterattacks have retaken more than 400 square kilometres in southern Ukraine since winter, recaptured most of the eastern city of Kupiansk, and seized settlements in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since late April, according to a 20 May Institute for the Study of War assessment. Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi told the defence outlet Militarnyi in a 15 May interview that, as of 14 May, the count of Ukrainian offensive actions exceeded Russian ones — a shift Ukrainian officials are pairing with intensified deep-strike drone operations. The advances are the largest Ukrainian territorial gains since Kyiv's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast in August 2024.

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DOJ creates $1.776 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund for Trump allies; bipartisan backlash, Capitol Police lawsuit

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced a $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization" compensation fund Monday as part of a settlement in President Trump's $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over a leak of his tax returns, drawing immediate bipartisan opposition over its scope, its likely beneficiaries, and the absence of congressional authorisation. Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn and Metropolitan Police Officer Daniel Hodges sued Wednesday to block the fund, calling it "the most brazen act of presidential corruption this century"; Senators Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) demanded congressional review, and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said House Republicans will "try to kill" it. Money will flow from the Treasury Judgment Fund — the dollar figure marks the year of American independence — until December 1, 2028.

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Ukrainian drones strike Russian FSB headquarters in occupied Kherson, Zelensky says 100 casualties

Ukrainian drones struck a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) headquarters in the occupied village of Henicheska Hirka in Kherson region on May 21, 2026, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported. The attack, carried out by the SBU's Special Operations Center 'A', also destroyed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system. Zelensky said Russian losses amounted to around 100 killed and wounded, a figure not independently verified.

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German prosecutors charge two Iranian-Quds agents over Berlin plot to assassinate Volker Beck and Josef Schuster

The Federal Prosecutor in Karlsruhe charged two men on Thursday — Ali S., a Danish national arrested in Aarhus in June 2025, and Afghan national Tawab M., arrested in November 2025 — with intelligence activity and attempted murder on behalf of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, in a plot to assassinate Volker Beck, head of the German-Israeli Society, and Josef Schuster, president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany. Investigators say Ali S. was directed by the Quds Force in early 2025 to surveil the two men and two Jewish food retailers in Berlin, and in May 2025 recruited Tawab M., who agreed to procure a weapon for an unnamed third party. The indictment, filed before the Hanseatic Higher Regional Court in Hamburg, originated with a Mossad tip and lands amid heightened Iran-linked threat activity in Europe, including a 10 April arson attack on an Israeli restaurant in Munich.

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