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Global Briefing May 21

Iran Hardens Nuclear Stance as War Costs Mount

Iran's Supreme Leader ordered the country's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium kept inside Iran, breaking with a clause Trump had committed to Israel. A Congressional Research Service tally put US aircraft losses in the war at 42 worth $29 billion as Ukrainian forces claimed 400 sq km — the largest gains since Kursk — and Washington's $1.776 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund drew a Capitol Police lawsuit. Germany charged two Quds-Force operatives over a Berlin assassination plot; EasyJet booked a £552m loss; and Australia's productivity minister named rogue AI as a leading extinction risk.

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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

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gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

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fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

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de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

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ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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ua97

Ukraine claims 400 sq km of southern territory and most of Kupiansk since winter, largest gains since Kursk

Ukrainian counterattacks have retaken more than 400 square kilometres in southern Ukraine since winter, recaptured most of the eastern city of Kupiansk, and seized settlements in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since late April, according to a 20 May Institute for the Study of War assessment. Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi told the defence outlet Militarnyi in a 15 May interview that, as of 14 May, the count of Ukrainian offensive actions exceeded Russian ones — a shift Ukrainian officials are pairing with intensified deep-strike drone operations. The advances are the largest Ukrainian territorial gains since Kyiv's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast in August 2024.

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Ukrainian counterattacks have retaken more than 400 square kilometres in southern Ukraine since winter, recaptured most of the eastern city of Kupiansk, and seized settlements in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since late April, according to a 20 May Institute for the Study of War assessment. Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi told the defence outlet Militarnyi in a 15 May interview that, as of 14 May, the count of Ukrainian offensive actions exceeded Russian ones — a shift Ukrainian officials are pairing with intensified deep-strike drone operations. The advances are the largest Ukrainian territorial gains since Kyiv's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast in August 2024.

us95

DOJ creates $1.776 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund for Trump allies; bipartisan backlash, Capitol Police lawsuit

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced a $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization" compensation fund Monday as part of a settlement in President Trump's $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over a leak of his tax returns, drawing immediate bipartisan opposition over its scope, its likely beneficiaries, and the absence of congressional authorisation. Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn and Metropolitan Police Officer Daniel Hodges sued Wednesday to block the fund, calling it "the most brazen act of presidential corruption this century"; Senators Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) demanded congressional review, and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said House Republicans will "try to kill" it. Money will flow from the Treasury Judgment Fund — the dollar figure marks the year of American independence — until December 1, 2028.

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Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced a $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization" compensation fund Monday as part of a settlement in President Trump's $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over a leak of his tax returns, drawing immediate bipartisan opposition over its scope, its likely beneficiaries, and the absence of congressional authorisation. Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn and Metropolitan Police Officer Daniel Hodges sued Wednesday to block the fund, calling it "the most brazen act of presidential corruption this century"; Senators Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) demanded congressional review, and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said House Republicans will "try to kill" it. Money will flow from the Treasury Judgment Fund — the dollar figure marks the year of American independence — until December 1, 2028.

ua95

Ukrainian drones strike Russian FSB headquarters in occupied Kherson, Zelensky says 100 casualties

Ukrainian drones struck a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) headquarters in the occupied village of Henicheska Hirka in Kherson region on May 21, 2026, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported. The attack, carried out by the SBU's Special Operations Center 'A', also destroyed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system. Zelensky said Russian losses amounted to around 100 killed and wounded, a figure not independently verified.

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Ukrainian drones struck a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) headquarters in the occupied village of Henicheska Hirka in Kherson region on May 21, 2026, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported. The attack, carried out by the SBU's Special Operations Center 'A', also destroyed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system. Zelensky said Russian losses amounted to around 100 killed and wounded, a figure not independently verified.

de95

German prosecutors charge two Iranian-Quds agents over Berlin plot to assassinate Volker Beck and Josef Schuster

The Federal Prosecutor in Karlsruhe charged two men on Thursday — Ali S., a Danish national arrested in Aarhus in June 2025, and Afghan national Tawab M., arrested in November 2025 — with intelligence activity and attempted murder on behalf of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, in a plot to assassinate Volker Beck, head of the German-Israeli Society, and Josef Schuster, president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany. Investigators say Ali S. was directed by the Quds Force in early 2025 to surveil the two men and two Jewish food retailers in Berlin, and in May 2025 recruited Tawab M., who agreed to procure a weapon for an unnamed third party. The indictment, filed before the Hanseatic Higher Regional Court in Hamburg, originated with a Mossad tip and lands amid heightened Iran-linked threat activity in Europe, including a 10 April arson attack on an Israeli restaurant in Munich.

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The Federal Prosecutor in Karlsruhe charged two men on Thursday — Ali S., a Danish national arrested in Aarhus in June 2025, and Afghan national Tawab M., arrested in November 2025 — with intelligence activity and attempted murder on behalf of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, in a plot to assassinate Volker Beck, head of the German-Israeli Society, and Josef Schuster, president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany. Investigators say Ali S. was directed by the Quds Force in early 2025 to surveil the two men and two Jewish food retailers in Berlin, and in May 2025 recruited Tawab M., who agreed to procure a weapon for an unnamed third party. The indictment, filed before the Hanseatic Higher Regional Court in Hamburg, originated with a Mossad tip and lands amid heightened Iran-linked threat activity in Europe, including a 10 April arson attack on an Israeli restaurant in Munich.

gb95

UK resets HS2: cost rises to £87.7-102.7 billion, London-Birmingham service delayed to 2036

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander announced a reset of the HS2 high-speed rail project in the Commons on Monday, putting the estimated cost of the London-Birmingham line at between £87.7 and £102.7 billion (€101.1-118.4 billion) and slipping service entry to 2036 from the original 2026 target. The final segment between Old Oak Common in the outer capital and Euston in central London will not open before 2040, according to the report by HS2 Ltd chief executive Mark Wild after a fifteen-month review. The project was launched in 2012 at an original budget of £37.2 billion; the Manchester and Leeds extensions were cut in 2021 and 2023, and French group Vinci, through joint ventures and its Taylor Woodrow subsidiary, builds a 90-kilometre Midlands section, Old Oak Common station and a Birmingham depot.

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Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander announced a reset of the HS2 high-speed rail project in the Commons on Monday, putting the estimated cost of the London-Birmingham line at between £87.7 and £102.7 billion (€101.1-118.4 billion) and slipping service entry to 2036 from the original 2026 target. The final segment between Old Oak Common in the outer capital and Euston in central London will not open before 2040, according to the report by HS2 Ltd chief executive Mark Wild after a fifteen-month review. The project was launched in 2012 at an original budget of £37.2 billion; the Manchester and Leeds extensions were cut in 2021 and 2023, and French group Vinci, through joint ventures and its Taylor Woodrow subsidiary, builds a 90-kilometre Midlands section, Old Oak Common station and a Birmingham depot.

tr95

Ankara appeals court voids CHP's 2023 congress, removes Özgür Özel and reinstates Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

The 36th Civil Chamber of the Ankara Regional Court of Justice ruled unanimously on Thursday that the Republican People's Party's (CHP) 38th Ordinary Elective Congress of 4-5 November 2023 was "absolutely null and void," temporarily removing current chair Özgür Özel and his entire central party leadership and reinstating former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the pre-congress organs until the decision becomes final. The chamber overturned a 24 October 2025 lower-court ruling that had declared the case moot, and also annulled the CHP's 8 October 2023 Istanbul Provincial Congress along with every subsequent ordinary and extraordinary congress held by Turkey's oldest party. The party has two weeks to appeal to the Court of Cassation.

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The 36th Civil Chamber of the Ankara Regional Court of Justice ruled unanimously on Thursday that the Republican People's Party's (CHP) 38th Ordinary Elective Congress of 4-5 November 2023 was "absolutely null and void," temporarily removing current chair Özgür Özel and his entire central party leadership and reinstating former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the pre-congress organs until the decision becomes final. The chamber overturned a 24 October 2025 lower-court ruling that had declared the case moot, and also annulled the CHP's 8 October 2023 Istanbul Provincial Congress along with every subsequent ordinary and extraordinary congress held by Turkey's oldest party. The party has two weeks to appeal to the Court of Cassation.

us92

Congressional report details 42 US aircraft lost or damaged in Iran war, costing $29 billion

At least 42 U.S. military aircraft have been lost or damaged since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, according to a May 13 Congressional Research Service report. The losses include fighter jets, helicopters and drones, with repair or replacement costs contributing to a total war cost of about $29 billion. A tenuous ceasefire has been in place since April, but a peace deal remains elusive.

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At least 42 U.S. military aircraft have been lost or damaged since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, according to a May 13 Congressional Research Service report. The losses include fighter jets, helicopters and drones, with repair or replacement costs contributing to a total war cost of about $29 billion. A tenuous ceasefire has been in place since April, but a peace deal remains elusive.

ua92

Ukraine launches 'unprecedented' security operation in five northern regions bordering Russia and Belarus

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and other defense forces launched enhanced security measures in five northern regions bordering Russia and Belarus, the General Staff reported on Thursday. The operation, described as 'unprecedented' in scale, includes counterintelligence and anti-sabotage activities aimed at preventing enemy infiltration. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian intelligence has evidence Russia is attempting to draw Belarus more directly into the war.

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Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and other defense forces launched enhanced security measures in five northern regions bordering Russia and Belarus, the General Staff reported on Thursday. The operation, described as 'unprecedented' in scale, includes counterintelligence and anti-sabotage activities aimed at preventing enemy infiltration. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian intelligence has evidence Russia is attempting to draw Belarus more directly into the war.

fr90

Paris appeals court convicts Air France and Airbus of manslaughter over 2009 AF447 crash that killed 228

A Paris appeals court convicted Air France and Airbus of involuntary manslaughter Thursday over the June 1, 2009 crash of Flight AF447, ruling both companies "solely and entirely responsible" for France's worst aviation disaster, which killed all 228 aboard an Airbus A330 between Rio de Janeiro and Paris. The court imposed the statutory maximum fine of €225,000 on each, sums dismissed as token by victims' families, overturning a 2023 acquittal by a lower court. Airbus said it would appeal to the Court of Cassation.

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A Paris appeals court convicted Air France and Airbus of involuntary manslaughter Thursday over the June 1, 2009 crash of Flight AF447, ruling both companies "solely and entirely responsible" for France's worst aviation disaster, which killed all 228 aboard an Airbus A330 between Rio de Janeiro and Paris. The court imposed the statutory maximum fine of €225,000 on each, sums dismissed as token by victims' families, overturning a 2023 acquittal by a lower court. Airbus said it would appeal to the Court of Cassation.

us90

Iran's Supreme Leader orders enriched-uranium stockpile to stay in country, contradicting a key US demand

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium must not leave Iran, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters, hardening Tehran's stance on a central US demand in continuing peace talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war. Israeli officials say President Donald Trump assured Israel that Iran's stockpile would be sent abroad and that any peace deal must include such a clause; the White House and Iran's foreign ministry declined to comment. The two sides have narrowed some gaps, the sources said, but remain divided over the stockpile and over Tehran's demand for recognition of its right to enrichment.

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Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium must not leave Iran, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters, hardening Tehran's stance on a central US demand in continuing peace talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war. Israeli officials say President Donald Trump assured Israel that Iran's stockpile would be sent abroad and that any peace deal must include such a clause; the White House and Iran's foreign ministry declined to comment. The two sides have narrowed some gaps, the sources said, but remain divided over the stockpile and over Tehran's demand for recognition of its right to enrichment.