NATO faces critical risk from slow European defense production capacity
NATO's slow defense production is the greatest risk to European deterrence, as Russia has fully converted to a war economy and the West risks being outpaced in production, scaling, and speed. Europe must close capability gaps, replenish reserves, and replace U.S.-provided capabilities within a narrow window before Russia fully reconstitutes its forces. The transatlantic partnership remains the backbone of European security, but Europe must increase its own military capacity without deluding itself that the U.S. will indefinitely carry half of NATO's capabilities.
The slow pace of defense production is the greatest risk to Europe's deterrence and defense, as Russia has fully converted to a war economy and the West risks being outpaced in production, scaling, and speed, according to a strategic assessment published this week.
Two parallel conflict spaces – Ukraine and Iran – are straining European forces and defense industries to the limits of current capacity and heavily depleting ammunition stocks, the assessment states. The transatlantic partnership remains the backbone of European security, but Europe must increase its own military capacity without deluding itself that the U.S. will indefinitely carry half of NATO capabilities.
"The U.S. will not permanently carry half of NATO capabilities without Europe substantially stepping up," the assessment warns. The demand signal for Europe is threefold: close existing gaps, replenish reserves, and replace capabilities the U.S. has provided. Europe has a small time window until Russia's full reconstitution to become fully war-capable.
The article calls for building production capacity so that the first air-defense missiles can roll off the line within one year. It advocates moving from ordering specific quantities to building production capacity, e.g., not ordering 250,000 drones but maintaining capacity and using several thousand annually for training.
Europe needs fewer regulatory requirements and reporting obligations, and more exemptions for fast construction of production lines and munitions plants. Defense-relevant companies need legal certainty to fully utilize flexibilities in EU labor law. Critical defense raw materials and chemicals are still regulated with peacetime logic, reinforcing dependencies on supply chains not under European control, notably China. Certification of systems already proven in combat in Ukraine is slow, delaying training and introduction.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is quoted: "Europäischer werden, um transatlantisch zu bleiben" (become more European to remain transatlantic). The article states that the U.S. demand for fair burden-sharing in NATO dates back to President Eisenhower. The article asserts that Europe, and Germany in particular, holds the levers to change the situation.