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Global Briefing May 18

Ukraine Drones Hit Moscow Region; Iran War Presses Bond Markets

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed overnight drone strikes on the Moscow region, with Russia saying it intercepted 556 drones across the country; Belarus and Russia opened the first joint nuclear-weapons exercises since the Oreshnik missile was deployed to Belarus in December 2025. Sovereign bond yields jumped — US 10-year above 4.5 percent on May 13, Japan's 10-year at a 1990s high of 2.7 percent — as the prolonged Hormuz closure pushed oil durably above $100; Foreign Policy compiled the war's US tally at 50–60 percent of Patriot stocks used, nine Gulf bases damaged, 13 service members killed. G7 finance ministers convened in Paris with Brazil, India, South Korea and Kenya at the table; Turkish FM Hakan Fidan called Israel's interception of 25 Gaza-bound flotilla ships "piracy" from Berlin; Germany unveiled a €10-billion civil-defence package and Cuba's Díaz-Canel warned of a "bloodbath" if Washington struck.

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us · United States

Trump's Iran Pause: Narrowing Options

Donald Trump shelved a major new Iran strike and announced Monday talks after Gulf allies intervened, but Tehran denied asking for the pause and US interceptor stocks remain strained. Only one-third of Americans back the war. At home, Spokane-area fires destroyed at least 600 structures and forced 60,000 evacuations, while a Twin Falls shooting killed three victims.

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gb · United Kingdom

Burnham's Devolution Plan Hits Land and Money Limits

Andy Burnham pushed income-tax sharing, a written constitution and deeper devolution while NIESR warned that his pledges require tax rises or spending cuts. England and Wales received only 8% of normal July rainfall; official estimates put May-June heat deaths in England at 2,877, and the NFU warned that weak grain yields and depleted water could cause food shortages.

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fr · France

France Gironde Fire Threatens Nuclear Deterrent

The Gironde fire burned 42,000 hectares, destroyed about 240 homes and displaced 224,000 people before being controlled. It also forced protective action at M51 missile, Rafale and nuclear-research sites. World Weather Attribution found climate change doubled France's extreme fire conditions, turning adaptation from an environmental programme into a defence and industrial requirement.

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de · Germany

Germany's Risk Warnings Fail to Prevent Crises

The Berlin Pride attacker had been classified as a high-risk Islamist and ordered into deradicalisation before killing one woman and injuring dozens. Germany also recorded nearly 9,800 heat deaths, Rhine gauges fell below 2018 records and BMW announced up to 8,000 job cuts. The common failure was not foresight but the capacity to act on warnings already in hand.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Hits Russia Deep, But Can't Stop Missiles

Russia exploited Ukraine's Patriot shortage with 35 missiles and 185 drones against Kyiv, killing nine, while Ukraine answered with a 635-drone assault on refineries, bomber bases and logistics sites across Russia. Kyiv's long-range campaign is growing faster than its ballistic defence. The war is becoming a contest between Ukraine's ability to impose costs and its allies' willingness to replace interceptors.

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tr · Turkey

Ozgur Ozel's New Party Challenges Erdogan Amid Security Focus

Ozgur Ozel's New Party began with 91 MPs and drew mayors away from the court-restored CHP, even as another CHP mayor joined 55 detainees in a corruption case. Parliament advanced conditional PKK reintegration under a security-first framework. The opposition has escaped one institutional trap, but it must now hold a broad coalition together without letting Erdogan define every contest as public order.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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ua98

Zelensky confirms 'fully justified' Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow region as Russia says it shot down 556 drones overnight

President Volodymyr Zelensky said overnight Ukrainian drone strikes on the Moscow region were "völlig gerechtfertigt," with long-range drones reaching targets 500 km from Ukraine's border; Russia's defence ministry reported intercepting 556 Ukrainian drones across the country and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin logged at least 12 wounded near a capital oil refinery while Region Governor Andrei Vorobyov reported three killed. Russia answered with a strike package on Odesa and Dnipro that wounded at least 12 — including an 11-year-old in Odesa and a child in Dnipro, where the roof of a 24-storey building and a pyrotechnics warehouse caught fire. Former chancellor Angela Merkel publicly criticised Europe's diplomatic posture at the Republica conference, and a Ukrainian drone packed with explosives crashed near Utena in north-east Lithuania.

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President Volodymyr Zelensky said overnight Ukrainian drone strikes on the Moscow region were "völlig gerechtfertigt," with long-range drones reaching targets 500 km from Ukraine's border; Russia's defence ministry reported intercepting 556 Ukrainian drones across the country and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin logged at least 12 wounded near a capital oil refinery while Region Governor Andrei Vorobyov reported three killed. Russia answered with a strike package on Odesa and Dnipro that wounded at least 12 — including an 11-year-old in Odesa and a child in Dnipro, where the roof of a 24-storey building and a pyrotechnics warehouse caught fire. Former chancellor Angela Merkel publicly criticised Europe's diplomatic posture at the Republica conference, and a Ukrainian drone packed with explosives crashed near Utena in north-east Lithuania.

us95

Iran retained 70 percent of its missile stockpile while the US burned through half of its Patriot stocks and 9 Gulf bases were damaged, Foreign Policy review of war costs finds

US intelligence cited by the New York Times shows Iran still holds 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, 70 percent of its mobile launchers, and operational access to more than 90 percent of its missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, Foreign Policy editor in chief Ravi Agrawal wrote on May 18; the Pentagon's counterpart losses include 217 damaged structures across 15 US bases, at least 9 in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, and Qatar significantly hit, half to 60 percent of Patriot defense missiles expended, a third of US Tomahawk stocks, 13 US service members killed and more than 400 injured. US gasoline is up nearly 50 percent year-on-year and diesel 59 percent, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.4 to 3.1 percent and Russia has doubled monthly oil revenues since the war began. Allies — from Merz in Berlin to host countries in the Gulf — are publicly questioning US reliability.

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US intelligence cited by the New York Times shows Iran still holds 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, 70 percent of its mobile launchers, and operational access to more than 90 percent of its missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, Foreign Policy editor in chief Ravi Agrawal wrote on May 18; the Pentagon's counterpart losses include 217 damaged structures across 15 US bases, at least 9 in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, and Qatar significantly hit, half to 60 percent of Patriot defense missiles expended, a third of US Tomahawk stocks, 13 US service members killed and more than 400 injured. US gasoline is up nearly 50 percent year-on-year and diesel 59 percent, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.4 to 3.1 percent and Russia has doubled monthly oil revenues since the war began. Allies — from Merz in Berlin to host countries in the Gulf — are publicly questioning US reliability.

ua95

Russia and Belarus begin joint nuclear weapons drills near EU and Ukraine borders

Belarus and Russia launched joint military exercises on Monday, May 18, practicing the delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions. The Belarusian Defense Ministry said the drills involve missile forces and aviation, aiming to improve readiness for using "special munitions" from non-standard deployment areas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia is trying to draw Belarus deeper into the war, while Kyiv's Foreign Ministry condemned the exercises as an "unprecedented challenge" to global security.

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Belarus and Russia launched joint military exercises on Monday, May 18, practicing the delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions. The Belarusian Defense Ministry said the drills involve missile forces and aviation, aiming to improve readiness for using "special munitions" from non-standard deployment areas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia is trying to draw Belarus deeper into the war, while Kyiv's Foreign Ministry condemned the exercises as an "unprecedented challenge" to global security.

de95

Klingbeil tells Paris G7 the Iran war is a 'serious threat to the global economy' as Hormuz blockade tops finance ministers' agenda

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil told reporters before flying to Paris on Monday that the Iran war and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz are a "ernsthafte Bedrohung für die Weltwirtschaft," as G7 finance ministers — Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Japan, Canada and the US — began two days of talks under France's 2026 presidency. The Paris agenda also covers global-trade imbalances, supply of critical raw materials, financing for developing countries, terrorism and organised-crime financing, and Ukraine support; finance ministers from Brazil, India, South Korea and Kenya joined the table. Chancellor Friedrich Merz separately condemned Iran's drone attack on the Baraka nuclear plant in the UAE and demanded Tehran open Hormuz 'ohne Einschränkungen.'

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German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil told reporters before flying to Paris on Monday that the Iran war and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz are a "ernsthafte Bedrohung für die Weltwirtschaft," as G7 finance ministers — Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Japan, Canada and the US — began two days of talks under France's 2026 presidency. The Paris agenda also covers global-trade imbalances, supply of critical raw materials, financing for developing countries, terrorism and organised-crime financing, and Ukraine support; finance ministers from Brazil, India, South Korea and Kenya joined the table. Chancellor Friedrich Merz separately condemned Iran's drone attack on the Baraka nuclear plant in the UAE and demanded Tehran open Hormuz 'ohne Einschränkungen.'

gb95

Bond yields snap higher in the US, France and Japan as the prolonged Hormuz closure pushes oil above $100, Le Monde reports

Le Monde reported that US 10-year Treasury yields broke above 4.5 percent on May 13 for the first time in a year, Japanese 10-year yields hit 2.7 percent — their highest since the 1990s — and French 10-year yields neared 3.8 percent, level with their 2009 highs, as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept oil durably above $100 a barrel. Markets, Rexecode economist Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie told the paper, have concluded the crisis is not as transitory as they first thought; Natixis analysts said "le marché obligataire perd patience." The repricing follows Iran's May 15 announcement that it considered the strait a joint Omani–Iranian waterway and was preparing a toll regime, and earlier UK demand-side hits — Heathrow traffic down 5 percent in April and Tui logging a 10 percent drop in UK summer bookings.

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Le Monde reported that US 10-year Treasury yields broke above 4.5 percent on May 13 for the first time in a year, Japanese 10-year yields hit 2.7 percent — their highest since the 1990s — and French 10-year yields neared 3.8 percent, level with their 2009 highs, as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept oil durably above $100 a barrel. Markets, Rexecode economist Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie told the paper, have concluded the crisis is not as transitory as they first thought; Natixis analysts said "le marché obligataire perd patience." The repricing follows Iran's May 15 announcement that it considered the strait a joint Omani–Iranian waterway and was preparing a toll regime, and earlier UK demand-side hits — Heathrow traffic down 5 percent in April and Tui logging a 10 percent drop in UK summer bookings.

us92

Global bond rout deepens as Iran war stokes inflation fears and rate hike bets

Government bonds from Tokyo to New York extended losses on Monday as rising energy prices fueled by the Iran war stoked inflation concerns and reinforced investor bets on further rate hikes by central banks worldwide. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields jumped to 4.631%, their highest since February 2025, while Japan's 30-year yield hit a record 4.200%. Markets now price a more than 50% chance the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates by December, a reversal from pre-war expectations of rate cuts.

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Government bonds from Tokyo to New York extended losses on Monday as rising energy prices fueled by the Iran war stoked inflation concerns and reinforced investor bets on further rate hikes by central banks worldwide. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields jumped to 4.631%, their highest since February 2025, while Japan's 30-year yield hit a record 4.200%. Markets now price a more than 50% chance the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates by December, a reversal from pre-war expectations of rate cuts.

us88

CBS News/YouGov poll: 57% of Americans say Trump's policies make them financially worse off

A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday found 57% of Americans believe President Trump's policies are making them financially worse off, with 44% rating their personal financial situation as fairly or very bad. The survey, conducted May 13-15 among 2,064 respondents, comes as the U.S. war with Iran nears its fourth month and the average price of regular gasoline reached $4.51 a gallon, up from $3.19 a year ago. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) attributed the economic trouble directly to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

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A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday found 57% of Americans believe President Trump's policies are making them financially worse off, with 44% rating their personal financial situation as fairly or very bad. The survey, conducted May 13-15 among 2,064 respondents, comes as the U.S. war with Iran nears its fourth month and the average price of regular gasoline reached $4.51 a gallon, up from $3.19 a year ago. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) attributed the economic trouble directly to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

ua88

Ukraine completes first domestically produced guided aerial bomb, now combat-ready

Ukraine has developed its first domestically produced guided aerial bomb, now ready for combat use, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on May 18. The bomb, created by a participant in the Brave1 defense technology platform, features a 250-kilogram warhead and a standoff range of tens of kilometers. Fedorov said the weapon is not a copy of Western or Soviet systems and that the ministry has already purchased an initial experimental batch.

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Ukraine has developed its first domestically produced guided aerial bomb, now ready for combat use, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on May 18. The bomb, created by a participant in the Brave1 defense technology platform, features a 250-kilogram warhead and a standoff range of tens of kilometers. Fedorov said the weapon is not a copy of Western or Soviet systems and that the ministry has already purchased an initial experimental batch.

de88

Germany unveils €10 billion civil defense plan with shelters, vehicles, and training

Germany's interior minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) announced a €10 billion civil defense package to be approved by cabinet on Wednesday, including 1,000 special vehicles and 110,000 field beds by 2029. The plan aims to address long-standing gaps in bunkers, sirens, and medical supplies. DRK president Hermann Gröhe called for an immediate "Kraftakt" (major effort), warning that neglecting civil protection while boosting the military is inconsistent.

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Germany's interior minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) announced a €10 billion civil defense package to be approved by cabinet on Wednesday, including 1,000 special vehicles and 110,000 field beds by 2029. The plan aims to address long-standing gaps in bunkers, sirens, and medical supplies. DRK president Hermann Gröhe called for an immediate "Kraftakt" (major effort), warning that neglecting civil protection while boosting the military is inconsistent.

tr88

Fidan tells Berlin press conference the EU is 'incomplete without Türkiye' and calls Israel's Sumud flotilla interception 'piracy'

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking alongside German counterpart Johann Wadephul after the third Turkey-Germany Strategic Dialogue Mechanism meeting in Berlin on Monday, said the EU's accession track for Ankara should be handled "independently of political motives" and that excluding Türkiye from the bloc's defence and security initiatives "contradicts Europe's stated security objectives." He condemned Israel's interception of an estimated 25 ships in the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla as "piracy" and said safe return of activists, including Turkish nationals, was Ankara's top concern. On Iran, Fidan said there was "no immediate threat in practice" but warned that any resumption of the US-Iran war "would bring serious economic and political consequences for the region and beyond."

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Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking alongside German counterpart Johann Wadephul after the third Turkey-Germany Strategic Dialogue Mechanism meeting in Berlin on Monday, said the EU's accession track for Ankara should be handled "independently of political motives" and that excluding Türkiye from the bloc's defence and security initiatives "contradicts Europe's stated security objectives." He condemned Israel's interception of an estimated 25 ships in the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla as "piracy" and said safe return of activists, including Turkish nationals, was Ankara's top concern. On Iran, Fidan said there was "no immediate threat in practice" but warned that any resumption of the US-Iran war "would bring serious economic and political consequences for the region and beyond."