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Today 17 August Briefing Read full brief

Ukraine's best military week did not buy it a safer winter

Kyiv reported 745 square kilometres retaken and used domestic missiles against a Russian rocket plant, yet it entered the next phase of the war with only a fraction of the Patriot coverage it needs. Russia's winter threat, a 76 percent collapse in grain exports and mass civilian detention show why tactical initiative has not restored strategic safety.

Key Indicators
Full catalog · 12

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17 key official events ahead
September 2026
Parliament
Verkhovna Rada opens autumn session (Ninth convocation)

Parliament's autumn session opens on the first Tuesday of September, as fixed by Article 83 of the Constitution. First plenary sittings set the autumn legislative agenda (budget 2027, mobilization, EU-accession laws).

Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — August 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering August 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

Other
IMF Executive Board — second review of EFF arrangement

Second review of the 48-month US$8.1bn EFF approved 26 Feb 2026, expected on or after 1 September 2026; completion would release a further 2026 tranche (the programme envisages about US$3.8bn across 2026). (Provisional — exact Board date depends on the staff mission and benchmarks.)

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (September)

Scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. An interim 'risk-assessment' meeting (no new full forecast).

October 2026
Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — September 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering September 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

Parliament
Verkhovna Rada vote — martial law and mobilization extension

Next 90-day extension of martial law and general mobilization, voted before the period that began 2 August 2026 lapses (~late October / early November). (Provisional date within the window.)

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (October)

Scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. A quarterly 'forecast' meeting accompanied by a new Inflation Report.

November 2026
Statistics
NBU Inflation Report (Q4) publication

Quarterly macroeconomic forecast and Inflation Report accompanying the October key-rate decision, published per the official monetary-policy publications schedule.

Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — October 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering October 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

December 2026
Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — November 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering November 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (December)

Final scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting of 2026; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. An interim 'risk-assessment' meeting closing out the year.

January 2027
Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — December 2026 inflation (full-year)

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering December 2026, giving full-year 2026 inflation (~9th-11th of January). Provisional exact day.

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (January) — provisional

First NBU Board monetary policy meeting of 2027, a quarterly forecast meeting with a new Inflation Report. (Provisional — the NBU had not yet published its 2027 meeting calendar; date estimated from the usual late-January Thursday slot.)

February 2027
Parliament
Verkhovna Rada opens spring session (Ninth convocation)

Parliament's spring session opens on the first Tuesday of February per Article 83 of the Constitution. (Provisional — exact opening sitting depends on the published 2027 sessional calendar.)

March 2027
Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (March) — provisional

Interim 'risk-assessment' NBU Board monetary policy meeting. (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical mid-March Thursday slot.)

April 2027
Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (April) — provisional

Quarterly forecast NBU Board meeting with a new Inflation Report; markets watch for the start of the easing cycle (the NBU signalled no cuts before Q2 2027). (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical late-April Thursday slot.)

June 2027
Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (June) — provisional

Interim 'risk-assessment' NBU Board monetary policy meeting. (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical mid-June Thursday slot.)

Ukraine

Recent events

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ua45

Russian strikes on Zaporizhzhia kill seven, shut down steel plant and hit shopping center

Background: On the night of August 11-12, Russian forces struck the Epicentr shopping center in Zaporizhzhia, causing a large fire and damaging a private house, with no casualties reported at the time. Today, new reports confirm that the same attack, along with a separate ballistic missile strike on the Metinvest industrial complex, killed seven workers and injured 21. The steel plant Zaporizhstal was forced to shut down its blast furnaces after critical infrastructure was destroyed, dealing a major blow to Ukraine's heavy industry. The shopping center fire was part of a series of attacks on Epicentr, which has suffered billions in losses since the invasion began. The August 12 strike on the Epicentr shopping center killed seven workers and injured 21, according to the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration. The attack also severely damaged Metinvest's Zaporizhstal steel plant, forcing a complete shutdown of its blast furnaces after strikes destroyed power units and critical grid infrastructure. The steel plant, a major exporter to over 50 countries, had reported a net loss of Hr. 1.06 billion ($25.7 million) in the first half of 2026. The shopping center fire was part of a series of attacks on Epicentr, which has lost 417,000 square meters of retail space and suffered billions of dollars in losses since the invasion began.

Show summary

Background: On the night of August 11-12, Russian forces struck the Epicentr shopping center in Zaporizhzhia, causing a large fire and damaging a private house, with no casualties reported at the time. Today, new reports confirm that the same attack, along with a separate ballistic missile strike on the Metinvest industrial complex, killed seven workers and injured 21. The steel plant Zaporizhstal was forced to shut down its blast furnaces after critical infrastructure was destroyed, dealing a major blow to Ukraine's heavy industry. The shopping center fire was part of a series of attacks on Epicentr, which has suffered billions in losses since the invasion began. The August 12 strike on the Epicentr shopping center killed seven workers and injured 21, according to the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration. The attack also severely damaged Metinvest's Zaporizhstal steel plant, forcing a complete shutdown of its blast furnaces after strikes destroyed power units and critical grid infrastructure. The steel plant, a major exporter to over 50 countries, had reported a net loss of Hr. 1.06 billion ($25.7 million) in the first half of 2026. The shopping center fire was part of a series of attacks on Epicentr, which has lost 417,000 square meters of retail space and suffered billions of dollars in losses since the invasion began.

ua43

EU's Kallas Announces Plan for Broadest Russia Sanctions List Since War Began

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas announced plans to propose the most ambitious sanctions package since the start of the war in Ukraine, aiming to increase the number of sanctioned Russian entities by a third. The announcement comes amid ongoing Russian strikes on Ukraine and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia, including a massive drone assault on Moscow and other regions. The EU has already adopted 21 sanctions packages targeting nearly 3,000 individuals and entities.

Show summary

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas announced plans to propose the most ambitious sanctions package since the start of the war in Ukraine, aiming to increase the number of sanctioned Russian entities by a third. The announcement comes amid ongoing Russian strikes on Ukraine and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia, including a massive drone assault on Moscow and other regions. The EU has already adopted 21 sanctions packages targeting nearly 3,000 individuals and entities.

ua41

North Korea reportedly preparing to send up to 50,000 troops to Russia

Background: Ukrainian President Zelensky previously warned that Russia was requesting an additional 30,000 North Korean troops and new ballistic-missile launchers for autumn operations, and later raised the estimate to 30,000-50,000. Today: Intelligence agencies report that North Korea is preparing to send an additional 30,000-50,000 troops to Russia, following an initial deployment of 14,000-15,000 troops in late 2024. Experts doubt this will fundamentally change the war's course but note it could free up Russian forces for front-line battles. Ukrainian officials report North Korean missiles have been used in attacks, including a strike on Kryvyi Rih that killed civilians. The HUR states North Korea has delivered 148 KN-23 and KN-24 missiles since 2025, and a North Korean missile unit is deploying to Russia's Voronezh region, potentially equipped with 120 ballistic missiles. Experts say Russia is still recruiting around 1,000 contract soldiers daily, and North Korean missiles are similar to Russia's Iskander but with greater payload and lower accuracy, used as 'instruments of terror' targeting residential areas. The deepening partnership raises security concerns for Ukraine and the Asia-Pacific region.

Show summary

Background: Ukrainian President Zelensky previously warned that Russia was requesting an additional 30,000 North Korean troops and new ballistic-missile launchers for autumn operations, and later raised the estimate to 30,000-50,000. Today: Intelligence agencies report that North Korea is preparing to send an additional 30,000-50,000 troops to Russia, following an initial deployment of 14,000-15,000 troops in late 2024. Experts doubt this will fundamentally change the war's course but note it could free up Russian forces for front-line battles. Ukrainian officials report North Korean missiles have been used in attacks, including a strike on Kryvyi Rih that killed civilians. The HUR states North Korea has delivered 148 KN-23 and KN-24 missiles since 2025, and a North Korean missile unit is deploying to Russia's Voronezh region, potentially equipped with 120 ballistic missiles. Experts say Russia is still recruiting around 1,000 contract soldiers daily, and North Korean missiles are similar to Russia's Iskander but with greater payload and lower accuracy, used as 'instruments of terror' targeting residential areas. The deepening partnership raises security concerns for Ukraine and the Asia-Pacific region.

ua40

Ukraine strikes Russian Bastion coastal missile system in occupied Crimea

On August 16, 2026, Ukraine's Navy struck the launch positions and deployment site of a Russian Bastion coastal missile system in occupied Crimea, inflicting significant losses in equipment and personnel. The Bastion system, which launches P-800 Oniks and Zircon missiles, has been used by Russia to attack Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv. The strike is part of Ukraine's broader campaign to reduce Russia's missile threat by targeting launchers before they fire. The attack coincided with strikes on a rocket-fuel plant in Rostov Oblast and a Wildberries warehouse in Moscow Oblast, showing the expanding reach of Ukraine's deep-strike operations.

Show summary

On August 16, 2026, Ukraine's Navy struck the launch positions and deployment site of a Russian Bastion coastal missile system in occupied Crimea, inflicting significant losses in equipment and personnel. The Bastion system, which launches P-800 Oniks and Zircon missiles, has been used by Russia to attack Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv. The strike is part of Ukraine's broader campaign to reduce Russia's missile threat by targeting launchers before they fire. The attack coincided with strikes on a rocket-fuel plant in Rostov Oblast and a Wildberries warehouse in Moscow Oblast, showing the expanding reach of Ukraine's deep-strike operations.

ua39

Ukraine strikes Russian rocket fuel plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, confirms damage to petrochemical and refinery facilities

On August 16, 2026, Ukraine's Defense Forces struck the Kamensky Combine in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast, a key producer of solid rocket fuel for Uragan, Smerch, and Tornado-S multiple-launch rocket systems used by Russia against Ukrainian cities. A fire was confirmed at the site, with damage assessment ongoing. The General Staff also confirmed that a previous strike on the ZapSibNeftekhim complex in Tobolsk halted operations, and an attack on the Orsknaftaorgsyntez refinery damaged multiple processing units. These strikes are part of Ukraine's ongoing deep-strike campaign to degrade Russia's military-industrial capabilities.

Show summary

On August 16, 2026, Ukraine's Defense Forces struck the Kamensky Combine in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast, a key producer of solid rocket fuel for Uragan, Smerch, and Tornado-S multiple-launch rocket systems used by Russia against Ukrainian cities. A fire was confirmed at the site, with damage assessment ongoing. The General Staff also confirmed that a previous strike on the ZapSibNeftekhim complex in Tobolsk halted operations, and an attack on the Orsknaftaorgsyntez refinery damaged multiple processing units. These strikes are part of Ukraine's ongoing deep-strike campaign to degrade Russia's military-industrial capabilities.

ua38

Dying Ukrainian civilian's account details systematic Russian torture before release

Background: An AFP investigation and UN reports have documented widespread torture of Ukrainian prisoners in Russian detention, with over 16,000 civilians still held. Today, a new account from Oleh Kotov, a Ukrainian civilian who died shortly after release from Russian captivity, provides harrowing details of systematic torture by Russian forces, including beatings, electric shocks, waterboarding, and denial of medical care. Kotov was abducted from his village in the Kharkiv region in 2022 and held for over four years without charge, passing through multiple detention sites. His death underscores the severe human rights abuses and the urgent need for accountability. Update: A detailed account from Oleh Kotov reveals systematic torture by Russian forces, including beatings, electric shocks via a converted field telephone ('Tapik'/'Crocodile'), waterboarding ('Rodnichok'), and other methods. Kotov was abducted from his village in the Kharkiv region in April 2022 and held for over four years without charge, passing through multiple detention sites including a hotel in Hoptivka, a camp in Shebekino, and prisons in Saraysk and Stary Oskol. He was denied medical care for cancer, which was misdiagnosed as pneumonia, and died days after his release in June 2026. The OSCE has characterized these practices as crimes against humanity, noting a deliberate pattern targeting civilians.

Show summary

Background: An AFP investigation and UN reports have documented widespread torture of Ukrainian prisoners in Russian detention, with over 16,000 civilians still held. Today, a new account from Oleh Kotov, a Ukrainian civilian who died shortly after release from Russian captivity, provides harrowing details of systematic torture by Russian forces, including beatings, electric shocks, waterboarding, and denial of medical care. Kotov was abducted from his village in the Kharkiv region in 2022 and held for over four years without charge, passing through multiple detention sites. His death underscores the severe human rights abuses and the urgent need for accountability. Update: A detailed account from Oleh Kotov reveals systematic torture by Russian forces, including beatings, electric shocks via a converted field telephone ('Tapik'/'Crocodile'), waterboarding ('Rodnichok'), and other methods. Kotov was abducted from his village in the Kharkiv region in April 2022 and held for over four years without charge, passing through multiple detention sites including a hotel in Hoptivka, a camp in Shebekino, and prisons in Saraysk and Stary Oskol. He was denied medical care for cancer, which was misdiagnosed as pneumonia, and died days after his release in June 2026. The OSCE has characterized these practices as crimes against humanity, noting a deliberate pattern targeting civilians.

ua35

Russian drone strike on Kramatorsk post office kills one, injures six

On August 16, Russian forces attacked a post office in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, with a drone, killing one person and injuring at least six others. The head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, Vadym Filashkin, reported the attack and urged residents to evacuate to safer areas. This incident adds to the ongoing civilian toll from Russian drone strikes in the region.

Show summary

On August 16, Russian forces attacked a post office in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, with a drone, killing one person and injuring at least six others. The head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, Vadym Filashkin, reported the attack and urged residents to evacuate to safer areas. This incident adds to the ongoing civilian toll from Russian drone strikes in the region.

ua33

Russian missile strike damages Kyiv's largest book market

Background: Russian missile strikes since early July have destroyed over 1.5 million books in Ukraine, targeting printing houses, warehouses, and libraries, with officials condemning it as cultural genocide. Today: A Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv on 16 August caused a large fire at the Pochaina book market, burning several rows of stalls and hospitalizing three people. The market, a cultural institution since 1997, has been hit at least three times since mid-June, adding to the mounting losses across Ukraine's publishing industry. Update: The attack on 16 August 2026 hit the Obolonskyi district, with three hospitalized (two moderate, one light). The overall campaign has now destroyed over 10 million books, including a 1 August drone strike on Ranok's warehouse that burned about eight million books.

Show summary

Background: Russian missile strikes since early July have destroyed over 1.5 million books in Ukraine, targeting printing houses, warehouses, and libraries, with officials condemning it as cultural genocide. Today: A Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv on 16 August caused a large fire at the Pochaina book market, burning several rows of stalls and hospitalizing three people. The market, a cultural institution since 1997, has been hit at least three times since mid-June, adding to the mounting losses across Ukraine's publishing industry. Update: The attack on 16 August 2026 hit the Obolonskyi district, with three hospitalized (two moderate, one light). The overall campaign has now destroyed over 10 million books, including a 1 August drone strike on Ranok's warehouse that burned about eight million books.

Frequently Asked

5
How much territory did Ukraine recover in the Oleksandrivka counteroffensive?
President Zelensky said the counteroffensive recovered 745 square kilometres and 26 villages across Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions since late January.
What targets did Ukraine strike with FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles?
Ukraine struck the Progress Rocket and Space Centre in Samara and Savasleyka airbase in Nizhny Novgorod with domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles.
Why is Ukraine's air defence vulnerable this winter?
Zelensky said Ukraine held only about one percent of the Patriot interceptors it needed against ballistic missiles, and recent barrages passed through without a reported ballistic interception.
How much did Ukrainian grain exports fall in August?
Ukrainian grain exports in August fell 76 percent from a year earlier, and the agriculture ministry expects annual exports could drop to 29.6 million tonnes.
What did the UN report about Ukrainian detainees?
The UN said more than 16,000 Ukrainian civilians remained detained by Russia, and documented execution of 129 prisoners of war at the start of captivity and 48 deaths in custody.