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ua48

ISW: Russia launches massive strike, drones breach NATO airspace, as Ukraine continues oil infrastructure campaign

Background: ISW previously reported on Ukrainian counteroffensive advances in the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian strikes on Russian satellite communications and ballistic missile infrastructure, and Russian long-range drone strikes on Ukraine. New development: On August 19-20, 2026, Russia launched a massive combined drone and missile strike on Ukraine, with drones penetrating Moldovan and Romanian airspace and a naval drone destroyed near a Romanian gas platform. The Kremlin is likely to militarize society via Duma elections, and Russia faces inadequate responses to gasoline shortages. Ukrainian long-range strikes continue against Russian oil infrastructure. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Pokrovsk direction.

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Background: ISW previously reported on Ukrainian counteroffensive advances in the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian strikes on Russian satellite communications and ballistic missile infrastructure, and Russian long-range drone strikes on Ukraine. New development: On August 19-20, 2026, Russia launched a massive combined drone and missile strike on Ukraine, with drones penetrating Moldovan and Romanian airspace and a naval drone destroyed near a Romanian gas platform. The Kremlin is likely to militarize society via Duma elections, and Russia faces inadequate responses to gasoline shortages. Ukrainian long-range strikes continue against Russian oil infrastructure. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Pokrovsk direction.

ua48

Ukraine reports 244 combat clashes, Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka axes hottest

The Ukrainian General Staff reported 244 combat clashes over the past day as of 08:00 on 18 August, with the heaviest fighting on the Pokrovsk (34 attacks) and Kostiantynivka (27 attacks) fronts. Russian forces conducted airstrikes and artillery bombardments, including 64 strikes on Ukrainian positions and settlements, nine of which used multiple-launch rocket systems. Ukrainian forces repelled attacks across multiple axes, including North Slobozhanshchyna, Kursk, South Slobozhanshchyna, Kupiansk, Lyman, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Oleksandrivka, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovske. Ukraine's Air Force and Rocket Forces struck two Russian command posts, two troop concentrations, two artillery systems, one air defense system, and five UAV ground control stations.

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The Ukrainian General Staff reported 244 combat clashes over the past day as of 08:00 on 18 August, with the heaviest fighting on the Pokrovsk (34 attacks) and Kostiantynivka (27 attacks) fronts. Russian forces conducted airstrikes and artillery bombardments, including 64 strikes on Ukrainian positions and settlements, nine of which used multiple-launch rocket systems. Ukrainian forces repelled attacks across multiple axes, including North Slobozhanshchyna, Kursk, South Slobozhanshchyna, Kupiansk, Lyman, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Oleksandrivka, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, and Prydniprovske. Ukraine's Air Force and Rocket Forces struck two Russian command posts, two troop concentrations, two artillery systems, one air defense system, and five UAV ground control stations.

ua46

Russia's Black Sea blockade cripples Ukraine's grain exports, Turkey proposes ceasefire rejected by Moscow

Background: Since mid-July, Russian missile and drone strikes have brought Ukraine's Black Sea grain corridor to a near-standstill, with no ships passing on July 22 and the UN Security Council convening an emergency meeting. Today: Russia's campaign has intensified, with over 180 attacks on Odesa ports in the first half of 2026, nearly matching the total for all of 2025, and a major August 9 strike. In July alone, Ukraine recorded 67 strikes on port facilities and dozens on vessels, including the July 19 attack on the Turkish-owned bulk carrier Golden Leo, which killed ten and later sank. Ship traffic has collapsed, with only seven vessels entering in the first 11 days of August, and Ukraine's agricultural exports are set to nearly halve in August to 1.5-1.6 million tonnes, costing $450-500 million monthly. Alternative routes via the Danube and EU can handle only about 1.4 million tonnes per month, constrained by drought and low water levels. Turkey proposed a Black Sea ceasefire, but Russia rejected it, with Foreign Minister Lavrov ruling out any freeze of the front line. Ukraine has struck Russian oil tankers and naval infrastructure, including an August 12 attack on Novorossiysk naval base, while reportedly halting attacks on CPC-linked tankers after a US request. The UN Security Council met on July 27, and the US has not pressed Russia to halt attacks on Ukrainian shipping. The blockade threatens global food security and Ukraine's economy, with alternative routes unable to compensate.

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Background: Since mid-July, Russian missile and drone strikes have brought Ukraine's Black Sea grain corridor to a near-standstill, with no ships passing on July 22 and the UN Security Council convening an emergency meeting. Today: Russia's campaign has intensified, with over 180 attacks on Odesa ports in the first half of 2026, nearly matching the total for all of 2025, and a major August 9 strike. In July alone, Ukraine recorded 67 strikes on port facilities and dozens on vessels, including the July 19 attack on the Turkish-owned bulk carrier Golden Leo, which killed ten and later sank. Ship traffic has collapsed, with only seven vessels entering in the first 11 days of August, and Ukraine's agricultural exports are set to nearly halve in August to 1.5-1.6 million tonnes, costing $450-500 million monthly. Alternative routes via the Danube and EU can handle only about 1.4 million tonnes per month, constrained by drought and low water levels. Turkey proposed a Black Sea ceasefire, but Russia rejected it, with Foreign Minister Lavrov ruling out any freeze of the front line. Ukraine has struck Russian oil tankers and naval infrastructure, including an August 12 attack on Novorossiysk naval base, while reportedly halting attacks on CPC-linked tankers after a US request. The UN Security Council met on July 27, and the US has not pressed Russia to halt attacks on Ukrainian shipping. The blockade threatens global food security and Ukraine's economy, with alternative routes unable to compensate.

ua45

Russia intensifies Banderol missile strikes on Odesa, using 'missile spam' tactics

Background: Russia has mass-produced the S8000 Banderol cruise missile, a low-cost hybrid drone-cruise missile with foreign components, used in nightly strikes on Ukrainian cities. Today: Russia has resumed and intensified Banderol missile attacks after a temporary pause, with strikes now almost daily across most regions except the western oblasts. Odesa and its oblast bear the brunt, receiving about 70% of the missiles, and Banderol strikes are involved in around 80% of Russian attacks on Odesa's infrastructure, contributing to the closure of Black Sea ports. The missiles are primarily launched from Mi-28N helicopters operating from occupied Crimea, with a new ground-based launcher also in use, reducing detection and response time. Russia produces about 80 missiles per month and plans up to 1,000 this year. The Banderol is often used in a 'missile spam' tactic, launched singly at intervals or alongside Geran-4/5 jet-powered drones and Kh-59/69 missiles to strain Ukrainian air defenses. The missile's speed (500-600 km/h) makes it too fast for FPV interceptor drones, requiring more expensive systems. Russia is also developing similar systems: the Dan-T (a modified Dan-M jet-powered UAV) and the S-71K (a new missile for the Su-57 with a 250kg warhead and 300km range). Ukraine is developing low-cost interceptors and testing foreign systems like Estonia's Mark I missiles, while the most effective countermeasure remains striking production facilities and tightening sanctions, as production relies on foreign components including Chinese engines and Western electronics.

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Background: Russia has mass-produced the S8000 Banderol cruise missile, a low-cost hybrid drone-cruise missile with foreign components, used in nightly strikes on Ukrainian cities. Today: Russia has resumed and intensified Banderol missile attacks after a temporary pause, with strikes now almost daily across most regions except the western oblasts. Odesa and its oblast bear the brunt, receiving about 70% of the missiles, and Banderol strikes are involved in around 80% of Russian attacks on Odesa's infrastructure, contributing to the closure of Black Sea ports. The missiles are primarily launched from Mi-28N helicopters operating from occupied Crimea, with a new ground-based launcher also in use, reducing detection and response time. Russia produces about 80 missiles per month and plans up to 1,000 this year. The Banderol is often used in a 'missile spam' tactic, launched singly at intervals or alongside Geran-4/5 jet-powered drones and Kh-59/69 missiles to strain Ukrainian air defenses. The missile's speed (500-600 km/h) makes it too fast for FPV interceptor drones, requiring more expensive systems. Russia is also developing similar systems: the Dan-T (a modified Dan-M jet-powered UAV) and the S-71K (a new missile for the Su-57 with a 250kg warhead and 300km range). Ukraine is developing low-cost interceptors and testing foreign systems like Estonia's Mark I missiles, while the most effective countermeasure remains striking production facilities and tightening sanctions, as production relies on foreign components including Chinese engines and Western electronics.

ua44

Russian strikes on DTEK thermal power plant and Zaporizhzhia cause outages, halt generation

On August 18, Russia launched a massive strike on a DTEK thermal power plant, severely damaging equipment and forcing the facility to halt electricity generation. DTEK reported that its thermal power plants have been attacked over 230 times since the full-scale invasion. Separately, a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia caused widespread power outages, with infrastructure facilities relying on backup power and restoration efforts underway. These strikes are part of Russia's ongoing campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure ahead of winter, with Ukrainian officials warning of intensified attacks on critical civilian systems, including potential targeting of water supplies.

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On August 18, Russia launched a massive strike on a DTEK thermal power plant, severely damaging equipment and forcing the facility to halt electricity generation. DTEK reported that its thermal power plants have been attacked over 230 times since the full-scale invasion. Separately, a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia caused widespread power outages, with infrastructure facilities relying on backup power and restoration efforts underway. These strikes are part of Russia's ongoing campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure ahead of winter, with Ukrainian officials warning of intensified attacks on critical civilian systems, including potential targeting of water supplies.

ua43

Ukraine's HUR: Russia Plans to Capture Donetsk Oblast by Year-End, No Peace Deal Expected

Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) deputy chief Vadym Skibitskyi stated that Russia intends to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026 and that no peace agreement is expected before 2026 ends. HUR estimates Russian personnel losses exceeded contract recruitment in June and July, limiting Moscow's ability to form new units without mobilization. Russia is also preparing for intensified attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure during autumn and winter, and may launch a new mobilization wave after September elections, potentially enabling a strike force by early 2027. HUR warns Russia is preparing for a potential conflict with NATO by 2030.

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Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) deputy chief Vadym Skibitskyi stated that Russia intends to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026 and that no peace agreement is expected before 2026 ends. HUR estimates Russian personnel losses exceeded contract recruitment in June and July, limiting Moscow's ability to form new units without mobilization. Russia is also preparing for intensified attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure during autumn and winter, and may launch a new mobilization wave after September elections, potentially enabling a strike force by early 2027. HUR warns Russia is preparing for a potential conflict with NATO by 2030.

ua41

Ukraine officially confirms southern gains, strikes Novorossiysk, as NATO faces drone incursions

Background: Ukraine has been making slow but steady territorial gains in the southeast, with Russia's advances stalling and Ukraine claiming liberation of 745 square kilometers. New development: Ukraine's Armed Forces officially acknowledged a southern counteroffensive, claiming liberation of 26 villages and 352 square kilometers in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions over three months, with President Zelensky reporting over 750 square kilometers liberated since April. Ukrainian forces launched a massive drone and missile strike on Novorossiysk, damaging two Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates (Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov), a Buyan-M missile ship, and the patrol vessel Vasily Bykov, as well as port infrastructure including piers and a grain terminal, halting grain exports. Russia continued heavy bombardment of Ukrainian cities, including Odesa and Kyiv, with drones violating NATO airspace in Bulgaria and Latvia. Ukraine purchased M270 launchers and ATACMS missiles from Turkey, likely to target Russian missile launchers.

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Background: Ukraine has been making slow but steady territorial gains in the southeast, with Russia's advances stalling and Ukraine claiming liberation of 745 square kilometers. New development: Ukraine's Armed Forces officially acknowledged a southern counteroffensive, claiming liberation of 26 villages and 352 square kilometers in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions over three months, with President Zelensky reporting over 750 square kilometers liberated since April. Ukrainian forces launched a massive drone and missile strike on Novorossiysk, damaging two Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates (Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov), a Buyan-M missile ship, and the patrol vessel Vasily Bykov, as well as port infrastructure including piers and a grain terminal, halting grain exports. Russia continued heavy bombardment of Ukrainian cities, including Odesa and Kyiv, with drones violating NATO airspace in Bulgaria and Latvia. Ukraine purchased M270 launchers and ATACMS missiles from Turkey, likely to target Russian missile launchers.

ua40

Ukraine Warns Russia Could Open Northern Front by February 2027 if New Mobilization Ordered

Background: Russia is reportedly preparing a new mobilization drive, with Ukrainian officials and independent media citing declining recruitment and low unit staffing. New development: Ukrainian military intelligence deputy chief Vadym Skibitskyi told RBC-Ukraine on 18 August that Russia could assemble a strike force for an offensive into northern Ukraine by February 2027 if Moscow launches another mobilization, possibly after September parliamentary elections. He based the estimate on Russia's 2022 mobilization timeline, noting some personnel reached the front in December 2022 and combat-ready units in January 2023. Skibitskyi said Moscow cannot form the units required for a new offensive without mobilization, citing HUR estimates that Russia lost more personnel than it recruited in both June and July, with a shortfall of 3,000 in June and at least 1,000 in July. He added that Russia's operational reserve is about one-tenth the size of its combat component against Ukraine, and recruitment for its unmanned-systems forces has reached only 30% of its quota. Earlier warnings identified a northern route, with Zelenskyy in May tracking five scenarios for expanding the war through the north, including an advance through Chernihiv Oblast toward Kyiv. Syrskyi called an attack from Russia's Bryansk Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast Moscow's most realistic northern option, ranking it above an operation through Belarus, with the purpose of drawing Ukrainian forces away from the east and south.

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Background: Russia is reportedly preparing a new mobilization drive, with Ukrainian officials and independent media citing declining recruitment and low unit staffing. New development: Ukrainian military intelligence deputy chief Vadym Skibitskyi told RBC-Ukraine on 18 August that Russia could assemble a strike force for an offensive into northern Ukraine by February 2027 if Moscow launches another mobilization, possibly after September parliamentary elections. He based the estimate on Russia's 2022 mobilization timeline, noting some personnel reached the front in December 2022 and combat-ready units in January 2023. Skibitskyi said Moscow cannot form the units required for a new offensive without mobilization, citing HUR estimates that Russia lost more personnel than it recruited in both June and July, with a shortfall of 3,000 in June and at least 1,000 in July. He added that Russia's operational reserve is about one-tenth the size of its combat component against Ukraine, and recruitment for its unmanned-systems forces has reached only 30% of its quota. Earlier warnings identified a northern route, with Zelenskyy in May tracking five scenarios for expanding the war through the north, including an advance through Chernihiv Oblast toward Kyiv. Syrskyi called an attack from Russia's Bryansk Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast Moscow's most realistic northern option, ranking it above an operation through Belarus, with the purpose of drawing Ukrainian forces away from the east and south.