Quarterly macroeconomic forecast and Inflation Report accompanying the July key-rate decision, published per the official monetary-policy publications schedule.
Ukraine can reach deeper into Russia than its allies can shield Kyiv.
Russia exploited Ukraine's Patriot shortage with 35 missiles and 185 drones against Kyiv, killing nine, while Ukraine answered with a 635-drone assault on refineries, bomber bases and logistics sites across Russia. Kyiv's long-range campaign is growing faster than its ballistic defence. The war is becoming a contest between Ukraine's ability to impose costs and its allies' willingness to replace interceptors.
Upcoming
19 key official events aheadMonthly Consumer Price Index release covering July 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.
Parliament's autumn session opens on the first Tuesday of September, as fixed by Article 83 of the Constitution. First plenary sittings set the autumn legislative agenda (budget 2027, mobilization, EU-accession laws).
Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering August 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.
Second review of the 48-month US$8.1bn EFF approved 26 Feb 2026, expected on or after 1 September 2026; completion would release a further 2026 tranche (the programme envisages about US$3.8bn across 2026). (Provisional — exact Board date depends on the staff mission and benchmarks.)
Scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. An interim 'risk-assessment' meeting (no new full forecast).
Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering September 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.
Next 90-day extension of martial law and general mobilization, voted before the period that began 2 August 2026 lapses (~late October / early November). (Provisional date within the window.)
Scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. A quarterly 'forecast' meeting accompanied by a new Inflation Report.
Quarterly macroeconomic forecast and Inflation Report accompanying the October key-rate decision, published per the official monetary-policy publications schedule.
Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering October 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.
Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering November 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.
Final scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting of 2026; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. An interim 'risk-assessment' meeting closing out the year.
Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering December 2026, giving full-year 2026 inflation (~9th-11th of January). Provisional exact day.
First NBU Board monetary policy meeting of 2027, a quarterly forecast meeting with a new Inflation Report. (Provisional — the NBU had not yet published its 2027 meeting calendar; date estimated from the usual late-January Thursday slot.)
Parliament's spring session opens on the first Tuesday of February per Article 83 of the Constitution. (Provisional — exact opening sitting depends on the published 2027 sessional calendar.)
Interim 'risk-assessment' NBU Board monetary policy meeting. (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical mid-March Thursday slot.)
Quarterly forecast NBU Board meeting with a new Inflation Report; markets watch for the start of the easing cycle (the NBU signalled no cuts before Q2 2027). (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical late-April Thursday slot.)
Interim 'risk-assessment' NBU Board monetary policy meeting. (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical mid-June Thursday slot.)
Recent events
ua50Russia and Ukraine exchange massive long-range strikes, killing at least 14
On August 2, 2026, Russia and Ukraine engaged in a major escalation of long-range strikes. Ukraine launched a massive drone assault on Russian military and economic infrastructure, targeting the Saratov oil refinery, the Engels strategic bomber airbase, a fuel depot in Kaluga, and drone launch sites in Bryansk, as well as Wildberries logistics warehouses. Russia claimed to have intercepted 635 drones, but the attacks killed at least nine people in Russia, including in Udmurtia, Saratov, and Belgorod. In response, Russia conducted heavy strikes on Ukraine, killing at least five people, including in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson. Ukrainian President Zelensky reported a week of intense Russian attacks with 1,900 drones, 1,600 aerial bombs, and 144 missiles, and highlighted a critical shortage of Patriot interceptors, which allowed most Russian ballistic missiles to get through. The exchange underscores the escalating intensity of the conflict, with both sides targeting civilian and economic infrastructure far beyond the front lines.
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Russia and Ukraine exchange massive long-range strikes, killing at least 14
On August 2, 2026, Russia and Ukraine engaged in a major escalation of long-range strikes. Ukraine launched a massive drone assault on Russian military and economic infrastructure, targeting the Saratov oil refinery, the Engels strategic bomber airbase, a fuel depot in Kaluga, and drone launch sites in Bryansk, as well as Wildberries logistics warehouses. Russia claimed to have intercepted 635 drones, but the attacks killed at least nine people in Russia, including in Udmurtia, Saratov, and Belgorod. In response, Russia conducted heavy strikes on Ukraine, killing at least five people, including in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson. Ukrainian President Zelensky reported a week of intense Russian attacks with 1,900 drones, 1,600 aerial bombs, and 144 missiles, and highlighted a critical shortage of Patriot interceptors, which allowed most Russian ballistic missiles to get through. The exchange underscores the escalating intensity of the conflict, with both sides targeting civilian and economic infrastructure far beyond the front lines.
On August 2, 2026, Russia and Ukraine engaged in a major escalation of long-range strikes. Ukraine launched a massive drone assault on Russian military and economic infrastructure, targeting the Saratov oil refinery, the Engels strategic bomber airbase, a fuel depot in Kaluga, and drone launch sites in Bryansk, as well as Wildberries logistics warehouses. Russia claimed to have intercepted 635 drones, but the attacks killed at least nine people in Russia, including in Udmurtia, Saratov, and Belgorod. In response, Russia conducted heavy strikes on Ukraine, killing at least five people, including in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson. Ukrainian President Zelensky reported a week of intense Russian attacks with 1,900 drones, 1,600 aerial bombs, and 144 missiles, and highlighted a critical shortage of Patriot interceptors, which allowed most Russian ballistic missiles to get through. The exchange underscores the escalating intensity of the conflict, with both sides targeting civilian and economic infrastructure far beyond the front lines.
ua46Russian strike on Kharkiv postal terminal kills one, as attacks on civilian infrastructure continue
Background: On July 31, Russian drone strikes targeted Nova Poshta logistics facilities in Kharkiv and Poltava, killing one person in Poltava and damaging infrastructure. On August 2, a Russian strike on a postal terminal in the suburbs of Kharkiv killed one person and sparked a large fire, destroying cargo trucks and equipment. The attack coincided with a guided bomb strike on Sloviansk and overnight drone attacks on Kharkiv districts, injuring several civilians. These strikes are part of Russia's ongoing campaign against civilian infrastructure in eastern Ukraine. On August 2, the strike on the postal terminal in Kharkiv's suburbs killed one person and caused a large fire, destroying freight trucks, containers, and equipment. The fire was contained, and emergency services continued searching for possible casualties. The same day, a guided bomb strike on Sloviansk in the Donetsk region destroyed an administrative building and a dozen private homes, injuring one person. Overnight drone attacks on Kharkiv districts injured three residents, including a child, and a Molniya drone was used in the Kyivskyi district.
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Russian strike on Kharkiv postal terminal kills one, as attacks on civilian infrastructure continue
Background: On July 31, Russian drone strikes targeted Nova Poshta logistics facilities in Kharkiv and Poltava, killing one person in Poltava and damaging infrastructure. On August 2, a Russian strike on a postal terminal in the suburbs of Kharkiv killed one person and sparked a large fire, destroying cargo trucks and equipment. The attack coincided with a guided bomb strike on Sloviansk and overnight drone attacks on Kharkiv districts, injuring several civilians. These strikes are part of Russia's ongoing campaign against civilian infrastructure in eastern Ukraine. On August 2, the strike on the postal terminal in Kharkiv's suburbs killed one person and caused a large fire, destroying freight trucks, containers, and equipment. The fire was contained, and emergency services continued searching for possible casualties. The same day, a guided bomb strike on Sloviansk in the Donetsk region destroyed an administrative building and a dozen private homes, injuring one person. Overnight drone attacks on Kharkiv districts injured three residents, including a child, and a Molniya drone was used in the Kyivskyi district.
Background: On July 31, Russian drone strikes targeted Nova Poshta logistics facilities in Kharkiv and Poltava, killing one person in Poltava and damaging infrastructure. On August 2, a Russian strike on a postal terminal in the suburbs of Kharkiv killed one person and sparked a large fire, destroying cargo trucks and equipment. The attack coincided with a guided bomb strike on Sloviansk and overnight drone attacks on Kharkiv districts, injuring several civilians. These strikes are part of Russia's ongoing campaign against civilian infrastructure in eastern Ukraine. On August 2, the strike on the postal terminal in Kharkiv's suburbs killed one person and caused a large fire, destroying freight trucks, containers, and equipment. The fire was contained, and emergency services continued searching for possible casualties. The same day, a guided bomb strike on Sloviansk in the Donetsk region destroyed an administrative building and a dozen private homes, injuring one person. Overnight drone attacks on Kharkiv districts injured three residents, including a child, and a Molniya drone was used in the Kyivskyi district.
ua43Ukrainian Border Guards Down Russian ZALA Drone at Record Altitude of 6,858 Meters
Ukraine's State Border Guard Service announced that operators from the 105th Border Detachment intercepted a Russian ZALA Z-20 reconnaissance drone at an altitude of 6,858 meters, setting a record for the highest confirmed UAV interception in their sector. The drone was launched at high altitude to avoid detection, but Ukrainian operators successfully engaged it, highlighting Ukraine's growing drone warfare capabilities. This achievement follows a previous record of 6,400 meters set by the National Guard, underscoring the increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian interceptor drones against high-altitude Russian surveillance assets.
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Ukrainian Border Guards Down Russian ZALA Drone at Record Altitude of 6,858 Meters
Ukraine's State Border Guard Service announced that operators from the 105th Border Detachment intercepted a Russian ZALA Z-20 reconnaissance drone at an altitude of 6,858 meters, setting a record for the highest confirmed UAV interception in their sector. The drone was launched at high altitude to avoid detection, but Ukrainian operators successfully engaged it, highlighting Ukraine's growing drone warfare capabilities. This achievement follows a previous record of 6,400 meters set by the National Guard, underscoring the increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian interceptor drones against high-altitude Russian surveillance assets.
Ukraine's State Border Guard Service announced that operators from the 105th Border Detachment intercepted a Russian ZALA Z-20 reconnaissance drone at an altitude of 6,858 meters, setting a record for the highest confirmed UAV interception in their sector. The drone was launched at high altitude to avoid detection, but Ukrainian operators successfully engaged it, highlighting Ukraine's growing drone warfare capabilities. This achievement follows a previous record of 6,400 meters set by the National Guard, underscoring the increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian interceptor drones against high-altitude Russian surveillance assets.
ua40Ukraine may become second front in US-Iran war after Caspian strike
Background: Ukraine struck an Iranian cargo vessel in the Caspian Sea, leading to diplomatic de-escalation but lingering tensions. Today: A new analysis by Turkish academic Eray Güçlüer argues that Ukraine's July 25 strike on an Iran-linked vessel could make Ukraine a second front in the US-Iran conflict, forcing Iran to divert military resources northward and reducing pressure on US and Israeli forces. The article highlights US-Ukraine defense cooperation, including Patriot missile production licensing and drone technology integration, as part of a structural military partnership. It warns that this could interconnect the Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East conflict, creating a larger geopolitical arc affecting Turkey.
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Ukraine may become second front in US-Iran war after Caspian strike
Background: Ukraine struck an Iranian cargo vessel in the Caspian Sea, leading to diplomatic de-escalation but lingering tensions. Today: A new analysis by Turkish academic Eray Güçlüer argues that Ukraine's July 25 strike on an Iran-linked vessel could make Ukraine a second front in the US-Iran conflict, forcing Iran to divert military resources northward and reducing pressure on US and Israeli forces. The article highlights US-Ukraine defense cooperation, including Patriot missile production licensing and drone technology integration, as part of a structural military partnership. It warns that this could interconnect the Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East conflict, creating a larger geopolitical arc affecting Turkey.
Background: Ukraine struck an Iranian cargo vessel in the Caspian Sea, leading to diplomatic de-escalation but lingering tensions. Today: A new analysis by Turkish academic Eray Güçlüer argues that Ukraine's July 25 strike on an Iran-linked vessel could make Ukraine a second front in the US-Iran conflict, forcing Iran to divert military resources northward and reducing pressure on US and Israeli forces. The article highlights US-Ukraine defense cooperation, including Patriot missile production licensing and drone technology integration, as part of a structural military partnership. It warns that this could interconnect the Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East conflict, creating a larger geopolitical arc affecting Turkey.
ua38Co-owner of CEO Club Ukraine Detained in Poland on International Warrant
Dmytro Karchuk, co-owner of the CEO Club Ukraine business club, was detained in Przemysl, Poland, based on an international warrant. Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has requested consular access through the Consulate General in Lublin. Colleagues and lawyers suggest the detention may be linked to third-party misuse of Karchuk's personal data.
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Co-owner of CEO Club Ukraine Detained in Poland on International Warrant
Dmytro Karchuk, co-owner of the CEO Club Ukraine business club, was detained in Przemysl, Poland, based on an international warrant. Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has requested consular access through the Consulate General in Lublin. Colleagues and lawyers suggest the detention may be linked to third-party misuse of Karchuk's personal data.
Dmytro Karchuk, co-owner of the CEO Club Ukraine business club, was detained in Przemysl, Poland, based on an international warrant. Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has requested consular access through the Consulate General in Lublin. Colleagues and lawyers suggest the detention may be linked to third-party misuse of Karchuk's personal data.
ua36Russian forces advance near Kostiantynivka and Zaliznychne
Background: Russian forces have been advancing on Kostiantynivka, a key Ukrainian stronghold in Donetsk Oblast, with slow siege tactics and infiltration. Today: Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState reports new Russian advances near Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast and Zaliznychne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, continuing offensive operations along the front line. This follows a previous Russian advance near the border village of Artilne in Kharkiv Oblast.
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Russian forces advance near Kostiantynivka and Zaliznychne
Background: Russian forces have been advancing on Kostiantynivka, a key Ukrainian stronghold in Donetsk Oblast, with slow siege tactics and infiltration. Today: Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState reports new Russian advances near Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast and Zaliznychne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, continuing offensive operations along the front line. This follows a previous Russian advance near the border village of Artilne in Kharkiv Oblast.
Background: Russian forces have been advancing on Kostiantynivka, a key Ukrainian stronghold in Donetsk Oblast, with slow siege tactics and infiltration. Today: Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState reports new Russian advances near Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast and Zaliznychne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, continuing offensive operations along the front line. This follows a previous Russian advance near the border village of Artilne in Kharkiv Oblast.
ua35Ukraine prepares support package for agricultural producers amid export disruptions
Ukraine's government is developing a comprehensive support package for agricultural producers, including bank financing cooperation and diplomatic efforts with key export markets, following Russian attacks on vessels and port infrastructure that have suspended vessel calls at Ukrainian seaports since July 22. Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi held an urgent meeting with agricultural businesses to identify solutions, including diversifying supply routes and developing affordable financing programs.
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Ukraine prepares support package for agricultural producers amid export disruptions
Ukraine's government is developing a comprehensive support package for agricultural producers, including bank financing cooperation and diplomatic efforts with key export markets, following Russian attacks on vessels and port infrastructure that have suspended vessel calls at Ukrainian seaports since July 22. Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi held an urgent meeting with agricultural businesses to identify solutions, including diversifying supply routes and developing affordable financing programs.
Ukraine's government is developing a comprehensive support package for agricultural producers, including bank financing cooperation and diplomatic efforts with key export markets, following Russian attacks on vessels and port infrastructure that have suspended vessel calls at Ukrainian seaports since July 22. Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi held an urgent meeting with agricultural businesses to identify solutions, including diversifying supply routes and developing affordable financing programs.
ua33Crew of Iranian Ship Hit in Ukrainian Strike Returns Home
Background: Following a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian cargo vessel in the Caspian Sea, Iran and Ukraine moved to de-escalate tensions through diplomatic talks, with Iran demanding compensation and Ukraine calling the strike unintentional. Today, the crew of the Iranian ship and the body of the sailor killed in the incident have returned to Iran, according to ISNA. Ukraine reiterated that the attack was unintentional and that Kyiv does not seek escalation.
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Crew of Iranian Ship Hit in Ukrainian Strike Returns Home
Background: Following a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian cargo vessel in the Caspian Sea, Iran and Ukraine moved to de-escalate tensions through diplomatic talks, with Iran demanding compensation and Ukraine calling the strike unintentional. Today, the crew of the Iranian ship and the body of the sailor killed in the incident have returned to Iran, according to ISNA. Ukraine reiterated that the attack was unintentional and that Kyiv does not seek escalation.
Background: Following a Ukrainian strike on an Iranian cargo vessel in the Caspian Sea, Iran and Ukraine moved to de-escalate tensions through diplomatic talks, with Iran demanding compensation and Ukraine calling the strike unintentional. Today, the crew of the Iranian ship and the body of the sailor killed in the incident have returned to Iran, according to ISNA. Ukraine reiterated that the attack was unintentional and that Kyiv does not seek escalation.