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Today 3 August Briefing Read full brief

Turkey's opposition rebuilt itself inside the security state it hopes to replace.

Ozgur Ozel's New Party began with 91 MPs and drew mayors away from the court-restored CHP, even as another CHP mayor joined 55 detainees in a corruption case. Parliament advanced conditional PKK reintegration under a security-first framework. The opposition has escaped one institutional trap, but it must now hold a broad coalition together without letting Erdogan define every contest as public order.

Key Indicators
Full catalog · 18

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31 key official events ahead
August 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (July data)

Monthly CPI print for July. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2026-III

Third of the CBRT's four quarterly Inflation Reports for 2026, presented at a Governor's briefing. Updates the bank's inflation forecasts and outlook, closely watched for any revision to the year-end inflation projection.

Statistics
TÜİK Labour Force Statistics release (July data)

Monthly unemployment and employment data for July, released in the mid-month window (around the 15th) at 10:00 Ankara time.

September 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Q2 2026 GDP release

Second-quarter gross domestic product print, the headline growth reading. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly two months after the quarter ends; the Q2 release lands around 1 September.

Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (August data)

Monthly CPI print for August. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (September)

Eighth scheduled 2026 MPC meeting (counting from January). Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.

October 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (September data)

Monthly CPI print for September; the 3rd falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (October)

Penultimate 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.

November 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (October data)

Monthly CPI print for October. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2026-IV

Final quarterly Inflation Report of 2026, presented at a Governor's briefing. Sets out the bank's updated inflation forecasts heading into 2027.

Statistics
TÜİK Labour Force Statistics release (October data)

Monthly unemployment and employment data for October, released in the mid-month window (15th falls on a weekend, shifting to the next working day) at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Financial Stability Report (November)

Second of the CBRT's two semi-annual Financial Stability Reports for 2026, assessing risks in the banking system, credit, FX and external balances.

December 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (November data)

Monthly CPI print for November. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (December)

Final 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time; the last rate-setting decision of the year.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy text for 2027

Annual monetary-policy framework document for the coming year, which also publishes the full 2027 schedule of MPC meeting and report dates. Sets out the inflation target and policy approach for 2027.

Statistics
TÜİK Q3 2026 GDP release

Third-quarter gross domestic product print. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly 80 days after the quarter ends; the Q3 release lands in late December. (provisional date pending TÜİK release calendar)

January 2027
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (December data)

Monthly CPI print for December and the full-year 2026 inflation figure; 3 January falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (January)

First MPC decision of 2027, now listed in the CBRT's official meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (January)

First MPC meeting of 2027, expected in the fourth week of January in line with the CBRT's usual cadence. (provisional date; the official 2027 schedule is published with the December 2026 monetary-policy text)

February 2027
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (January 2027 data)

Monthly CPI print for January 2027. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time. (provisional; based on TÜİK's standard ~3rd-of-month cadence)

Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2027-I

First quarterly Inflation Report of 2027, presented at a Governor's briefing with updated inflation forecasts. (provisional date; the 2026-I report was published on 12 February 2026 and the exact 2027 date is confirmed with the December 2026 schedule)

March 2027
Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest-rate decision (March)

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT publishes summary of the March MPC meeting

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

April 2027
Election
Turkish constitutional referendum (potential)

AKP signals a possible referendum on a new constitution, linked to the renewed Kurdish peace process and a potential reset of presidential term limits. Targeted for autumn 2026 or, more likely, spring 2027. (provisional; no official date called, exact date is speculative)

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest-rate decision (April)

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT publishes summary of the April MPC meeting

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

May 2027
Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2027-II

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT Financial Stability Report (May 2027)

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

June 2027
Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest-rate decision (June)

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT publishes summary of the June MPC meeting

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

July 2027
Parliament
TBMM summer recess begins under the standard timetable

The Assembly's standard timetable begins the summer recess on 1 July, subject to a TBMM decision to continue sitting. (provisional; the Assembly can alter the recess timetable)

Turkey

Recent events

24
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Mediators intensify efforts on Gaza ceasefire as strikes kill civilians

Background: On July 30, 2026, mediators and Hamas officials in Cairo made rare progress toward implementing a U.S.-brokered plan to end the Gaza war, with discussions on a roadmap for decommissioning weapons, transferring authority to a Palestinian administration, and deploying an international force, though key sticking points remained. New development: On August 2, 2026, Board of Peace chief Nickolay Mladenov said mediators are working around the clock to de-escalate the situation in Gaza and implement the Comprehensive Plan and Sharm El Sheikh deal, which secured the release of all hostages. He stressed that both parties carry obligations under these agreements and that achieving lasting peace is hard but achievable. His statement came after two days of Israeli strikes across Gaza that killed civilians and destroyed medical supplies, following intense efforts by the Board of Peace and mediators (Egypt, Turkiye, Qatar, and the US) to bring Palestinian factions to agree on a roadmap.

Show summary

Background: On July 30, 2026, mediators and Hamas officials in Cairo made rare progress toward implementing a U.S.-brokered plan to end the Gaza war, with discussions on a roadmap for decommissioning weapons, transferring authority to a Palestinian administration, and deploying an international force, though key sticking points remained. New development: On August 2, 2026, Board of Peace chief Nickolay Mladenov said mediators are working around the clock to de-escalate the situation in Gaza and implement the Comprehensive Plan and Sharm El Sheikh deal, which secured the release of all hostages. He stressed that both parties carry obligations under these agreements and that achieving lasting peace is hard but achievable. His statement came after two days of Israeli strikes across Gaza that killed civilians and destroyed medical supplies, following intense efforts by the Board of Peace and mediators (Egypt, Turkiye, Qatar, and the US) to bring Palestinian factions to agree on a roadmap.

tr40

Turkish opposition figures detained in high-security prisons amid political tensions

On the 500th day since Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu's detention, Turkish authorities placed Üsküdar Mayor Sinem Dedetaş in a high-security 'well-type' prison in Çorlu, joining other detainees linked to İmamoğlu's case. The article criticizes the use of such prisons for pretrial detainees and alleges judicial decisions are shifting political balances ahead of elections, including recent transfers of municipalities from CHP to AK Party.

Show summary

On the 500th day since Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu's detention, Turkish authorities placed Üsküdar Mayor Sinem Dedetaş in a high-security 'well-type' prison in Çorlu, joining other detainees linked to İmamoğlu's case. The article criticizes the use of such prisons for pretrial detainees and alleges judicial decisions are shifting political balances ahead of elections, including recent transfers of municipalities from CHP to AK Party.

tr39

Turkey Updates Military Readiness for Cyprus Amid Regional Tensions

Background: Turkish President Erdogan reaffirmed support for Turkish Cypriots and announced new infrastructure projects, including a subsea gas pipeline, while welcoming the UN chief's visit. Today, Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler stated in a written parliamentary response that Türkiye is updating the military readiness of its armed forces in response to developments on Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly growing cooperation among the US, Israel, Greece, and the Greek Cypriot administration. He noted that Türkiye is closely analyzing Israel's activities in areas controlled by the Greek Cypriot administration and taking necessary military and political measures. Güler emphasized preserving the sensitive balance on the island while ensuring the security of Türkiye and the TRNC. President Erdogan, after chairing a Cabinet meeting, reiterated that Türkiye will never abandon Turkish Cypriots and will continue infrastructure investments, including a subsea natural gas pipeline. He also stated that Türkiye is closely monitoring steps to make Cyprus part of new military alignments and geopolitical calculations.

Show summary

Background: Turkish President Erdogan reaffirmed support for Turkish Cypriots and announced new infrastructure projects, including a subsea gas pipeline, while welcoming the UN chief's visit. Today, Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler stated in a written parliamentary response that Türkiye is updating the military readiness of its armed forces in response to developments on Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly growing cooperation among the US, Israel, Greece, and the Greek Cypriot administration. He noted that Türkiye is closely analyzing Israel's activities in areas controlled by the Greek Cypriot administration and taking necessary military and political measures. Güler emphasized preserving the sensitive balance on the island while ensuring the security of Türkiye and the TRNC. President Erdogan, after chairing a Cabinet meeting, reiterated that Türkiye will never abandon Turkish Cypriots and will continue infrastructure investments, including a subsea natural gas pipeline. He also stated that Türkiye is closely monitoring steps to make Cyprus part of new military alignments and geopolitical calculations.

tr35

Turkey Captures Last Fugitive FETÖ Assassin from 2016 Coup Attempt

Turkish security forces, using MIT facial recognition, arrested Burkay Karatepe, a former Turkish Armed Forces captain and the last fugitive member of the FETÖ assassination team that targeted President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during the 2016 coup attempt. Karatepe had been hiding for about a decade, working menial jobs and using fake IDs. He was captured in Afyonkarahisar with cash, gold, and drugs, and faces aggravated life imprisonment for the assassination attempt and related charges.

Show summary

Turkish security forces, using MIT facial recognition, arrested Burkay Karatepe, a former Turkish Armed Forces captain and the last fugitive member of the FETÖ assassination team that targeted President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during the 2016 coup attempt. Karatepe had been hiding for about a decade, working menial jobs and using fake IDs. He was captured in Afyonkarahisar with cash, gold, and drugs, and faces aggravated life imprisonment for the assassination attempt and related charges.

tr33

Turkey Launches Judicial Probes into 44 Wildfires, Arrests Six

Turkey's Justice Ministry has initiated judicial investigations into 44 forest fires across 16 provinces since June 1, leading to the arrest of six suspects and judicial supervision of nine others. Justice Minister Akın Gürlek announced the measures, emphasizing that both deliberate arson and negligence will be prosecuted. The fires, exacerbated by high temperatures and strong winds, caused significant damage but no fatalities. Authorities are using forensic evidence, security footage, and witness statements to identify those responsible, underscoring the government's commitment to protecting Turkey's forests.

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Turkey's Justice Ministry has initiated judicial investigations into 44 forest fires across 16 provinces since June 1, leading to the arrest of six suspects and judicial supervision of nine others. Justice Minister Akın Gürlek announced the measures, emphasizing that both deliberate arson and negligence will be prosecuted. The fires, exacerbated by high temperatures and strong winds, caused significant damage but no fatalities. Authorities are using forensic evidence, security footage, and witness statements to identify those responsible, underscoring the government's commitment to protecting Turkey's forests.

tr30

Iraq and Turkey Sign Five Agreements to Diversify Dependencies

Background: During Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's first official visit to Ankara, Iraq offered to supply Turkey with up to 1 million barrels of oil per day and signed a deal for Turkish Petroleum to acquire a 15% stake in BP's Kirkuk oilfield, amid discussions on the Development Road and water management. Today: The visit concluded with five agreements covering police training and academic cooperation, youth and sports, industrial property, rail and road transport via the Ovaköy-Fishkhabour border crossing, and a framework for water management infrastructure financed by oil. The water framework links Iraq's energy revenues to investments in irrigation, dams, and canals, addressing domestic water deficiencies. Turkey's role is expanding beyond transit to include production and investment, as TPAO's 15% stake in Kirkuk field operations demonstrates. The comprehensive energy agreement remains under negotiation, and the northern corridor, including the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline and the Development Road, is seen as a strategic alternative to reduce Iraq's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz route. These agreements reflect Iraq's strategy to diversify its dependencies across security, energy, transport, and water, reducing reliance on any single partner or export corridor, particularly in light of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The agreements highlight Iraq's multi-partner foreign policy approach, engaging several partners in the same policy areas to distribute risks across security, energy, transport, and water.

Show summary

Background: During Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's first official visit to Ankara, Iraq offered to supply Turkey with up to 1 million barrels of oil per day and signed a deal for Turkish Petroleum to acquire a 15% stake in BP's Kirkuk oilfield, amid discussions on the Development Road and water management. Today: The visit concluded with five agreements covering police training and academic cooperation, youth and sports, industrial property, rail and road transport via the Ovaköy-Fishkhabour border crossing, and a framework for water management infrastructure financed by oil. The water framework links Iraq's energy revenues to investments in irrigation, dams, and canals, addressing domestic water deficiencies. Turkey's role is expanding beyond transit to include production and investment, as TPAO's 15% stake in Kirkuk field operations demonstrates. The comprehensive energy agreement remains under negotiation, and the northern corridor, including the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline and the Development Road, is seen as a strategic alternative to reduce Iraq's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz route. These agreements reflect Iraq's strategy to diversify its dependencies across security, energy, transport, and water, reducing reliance on any single partner or export corridor, particularly in light of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The agreements highlight Iraq's multi-partner foreign policy approach, engaging several partners in the same policy areas to distribute risks across security, energy, transport, and water.

tr28

Turkey and Iraq sign one-year extension of Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline agreement

Background: Turkey and Iraq had been negotiating a 12-month agreement to sustain crude oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, which had been offline for 2.5 years due to an arbitration dispute. The pipeline, largely idle since 2023, resumed limited exports last year and currently carries about 200,000 barrels per day. On August 2, 2026, the two countries formally signed the one-year extension, covering a minimum export capacity of 750,000 barrels per day. The deal was finalized after a meeting in Ankara between Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar and Iraqi Oil Minister Bassem Mohammed Khudair, following Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's visit to Ankara on Tuesday, where he met President Erdogan. Al-Zaidi described the deal as 'an important strategic milestone.' The extension is intended to bolster Iraq's oil export infrastructure and is seen as a boost to fragile global energy markets amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the U.S.-Iran war. Both governments will continue efforts toward a comprehensive framework agreement covering oil, electricity, and water resources.

Show summary

Background: Turkey and Iraq had been negotiating a 12-month agreement to sustain crude oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, which had been offline for 2.5 years due to an arbitration dispute. The pipeline, largely idle since 2023, resumed limited exports last year and currently carries about 200,000 barrels per day. On August 2, 2026, the two countries formally signed the one-year extension, covering a minimum export capacity of 750,000 barrels per day. The deal was finalized after a meeting in Ankara between Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar and Iraqi Oil Minister Bassem Mohammed Khudair, following Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's visit to Ankara on Tuesday, where he met President Erdogan. Al-Zaidi described the deal as 'an important strategic milestone.' The extension is intended to bolster Iraq's oil export infrastructure and is seen as a boost to fragile global energy markets amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the U.S.-Iran war. Both governments will continue efforts toward a comprehensive framework agreement covering oil, electricity, and water resources.

tr23

Turkey Launches Terminal Istanbul Tech Hub at Former Atatürk Airport

Turkey is transforming the former Atatürk Airport in Istanbul into Terminal Istanbul, a massive technology and entrepreneurship center. The first phase, covering 5,000 square meters, opens this month, with the full 200,000-square-meter campus expected to be operational next year. The project aims to become the world's largest entrepreneurship hub, attracting global startups, investors, and accelerator programs. It will include an AI and software school, a science center, and exhibition venues. The initiative is part of Turkey's broader strategy to boost its tech ecosystem and increase the number of Turkish unicorns, with over 60 startups already secured for the initial phase.

Show summary

Turkey is transforming the former Atatürk Airport in Istanbul into Terminal Istanbul, a massive technology and entrepreneurship center. The first phase, covering 5,000 square meters, opens this month, with the full 200,000-square-meter campus expected to be operational next year. The project aims to become the world's largest entrepreneurship hub, attracting global startups, investors, and accelerator programs. It will include an AI and software school, a science center, and exhibition venues. The initiative is part of Turkey's broader strategy to boost its tech ecosystem and increase the number of Turkish unicorns, with over 60 startups already secured for the initial phase.

Frequently Asked

5
What is Ozgur Ozel's New Party?
Ozgur Ozel's New Party is a Turkish political party formed after he left the CHP, quickly becoming the main opposition with 91 seats in parliament.
How many seats does the New Party hold in parliament?
The New Party holds 91 seats, making it the second largest group in the 600-seat parliament, behind the AKP's 277.
Why did Ozgur Ozel leave the CHP?
Ozgur Ozel left the CHP after a court took the party's leadership from him, leading him to form a new party.
What is the 'terror-free Turkiye' law?
The proposed law would allow reintegration for PKK members who surrender weapons and have no involvement in violent crime, excluding senior leaders and perpetrators of violence.
How many CHP mayors have been detained since October 2024?
At least 39 CHP mayors have been detained since October 2024, including Etimesgut mayor Erdal Besikcioglu.