Third of the CBRT's four quarterly Inflation Reports for 2026, presented at a Governor's briefing. Updates the bank's inflation forecasts and outlook, closely watched for any revision to the year-end inflation projection.
Turkey is turning regional disorder into leverage it may struggle to control
Turkey converted a week of surrounding conflict into diplomatic leverage: it joined Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in a mutual-defence pact, restricted Black Sea traffic after attacks on Turkish-owned ships, and pressed for a merchant-vessel moratorium. At home, ?zg?r ?zel's New Party deepened the opposition split as parliament prepared a conditional-amnesty framework for PKK members.
Upcoming
30 key official events aheadMonthly unemployment and employment data for July, released in the mid-month window (around the 15th) at 10:00 Ankara time.
Second-quarter gross domestic product print, the headline growth reading. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly two months after the quarter ends; the Q2 release lands around 1 September.
Monthly CPI print for August. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.
Eighth scheduled 2026 MPC meeting (counting from January). Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.
Monthly CPI print for September; the 3rd falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.
Penultimate 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.
Monthly CPI print for October. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.
Final quarterly Inflation Report of 2026, presented at a Governor's briefing. Sets out the bank's updated inflation forecasts heading into 2027.
Monthly unemployment and employment data for October, released in the mid-month window (15th falls on a weekend, shifting to the next working day) at 10:00 Ankara time.
Second of the CBRT's two semi-annual Financial Stability Reports for 2026, assessing risks in the banking system, credit, FX and external balances.
Monthly CPI print for November. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.
Final 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time; the last rate-setting decision of the year.
Annual monetary-policy framework document for the coming year, which also publishes the full 2027 schedule of MPC meeting and report dates. Sets out the inflation target and policy approach for 2027.
Third-quarter gross domestic product print. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly 80 days after the quarter ends; the Q3 release lands in late December. (provisional date pending TÜİK release calendar)
Monthly CPI print for December and the full-year 2026 inflation figure; 3 January falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.
First MPC decision of 2027, now listed in the CBRT's official meetings and reports calendar.
First MPC meeting of 2027, expected in the fourth week of January in line with the CBRT's usual cadence. (provisional date; the official 2027 schedule is published with the December 2026 monetary-policy text)
Monthly CPI print for January 2027. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time. (provisional; based on TÜİK's standard ~3rd-of-month cadence)
First quarterly Inflation Report of 2027, presented at a Governor's briefing with updated inflation forecasts. (provisional date; the 2026-I report was published on 12 February 2026 and the exact 2027 date is confirmed with the December 2026 schedule)
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
AKP signals a possible referendum on a new constitution, linked to the renewed Kurdish peace process and a potential reset of presidential term limits. Targeted for autumn 2026 or, more likely, spring 2027. (provisional; no official date called, exact date is speculative)
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
The Assembly's standard timetable begins the summer recess on 1 July, subject to a TBMM decision to continue sitting. (provisional; the Assembly can alter the recess timetable)
Recent events
tr44CHP loses supporters as former leader Özel founds new party
Background: Özgür Özel and 91 other MPs founded the New Party (Yeni Parti) after a court reinstated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as CHP leader, making the YP the main opposition. Today, the CHP reports that most resignations to the YP involve members who joined during Özel's tenure (2024-2026), with the party claiming approximately 450,000 new members in that period. The YP claims nearly 700,000 resignations, a figure CHP officials dispute. The CHP is conducting an internal review, finding that the majority of resignations are from 'stacked members' recruited by local figures close to Özel to secure internal election victories. Nearly all of those resigning are reportedly helping establish the YP's local organizations. Additionally, Özel had previously expelled nearly 2,500 Kılıçdaroğlu supporters between 2024 and 2026 and placed newcomers in key local positions.
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CHP loses supporters as former leader Özel founds new party
Background: Özgür Özel and 91 other MPs founded the New Party (Yeni Parti) after a court reinstated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as CHP leader, making the YP the main opposition. Today, the CHP reports that most resignations to the YP involve members who joined during Özel's tenure (2024-2026), with the party claiming approximately 450,000 new members in that period. The YP claims nearly 700,000 resignations, a figure CHP officials dispute. The CHP is conducting an internal review, finding that the majority of resignations are from 'stacked members' recruited by local figures close to Özel to secure internal election victories. Nearly all of those resigning are reportedly helping establish the YP's local organizations. Additionally, Özel had previously expelled nearly 2,500 Kılıçdaroğlu supporters between 2024 and 2026 and placed newcomers in key local positions.
Background: Özgür Özel and 91 other MPs founded the New Party (Yeni Parti) after a court reinstated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as CHP leader, making the YP the main opposition. Today, the CHP reports that most resignations to the YP involve members who joined during Özel's tenure (2024-2026), with the party claiming approximately 450,000 new members in that period. The YP claims nearly 700,000 resignations, a figure CHP officials dispute. The CHP is conducting an internal review, finding that the majority of resignations are from 'stacked members' recruited by local figures close to Özel to secure internal election victories. Nearly all of those resigning are reportedly helping establish the YP's local organizations. Additionally, Özel had previously expelled nearly 2,500 Kılıçdaroğlu supporters between 2024 and 2026 and placed newcomers in key local positions.
tr43Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş Criticizes Government's Kurdish Peace Process as Election-Driven
Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş issued a manifesto-like statement ahead of the Turkish parliament's vote on the 'Terror-Free Turkey' framework law, arguing that peace cannot be achieved solely through legislation. He criticized the government for undermining trust in justice and democracy, citing operations against CHP municipalities, court-appointed trustees, and the judicial targeting of political rivals. Yavaş insisted that the Kurdish issue resolution should not be tied to electoral calculations and called for full implementation of constitutional and court decisions, judicial independence, and protection of elected officials' mandates.
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Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş Criticizes Government's Kurdish Peace Process as Election-Driven
Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş issued a manifesto-like statement ahead of the Turkish parliament's vote on the 'Terror-Free Turkey' framework law, arguing that peace cannot be achieved solely through legislation. He criticized the government for undermining trust in justice and democracy, citing operations against CHP municipalities, court-appointed trustees, and the judicial targeting of political rivals. Yavaş insisted that the Kurdish issue resolution should not be tied to electoral calculations and called for full implementation of constitutional and court decisions, judicial independence, and protection of elected officials' mandates.
Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş issued a manifesto-like statement ahead of the Turkish parliament's vote on the 'Terror-Free Turkey' framework law, arguing that peace cannot be achieved solely through legislation. He criticized the government for undermining trust in justice and democracy, citing operations against CHP municipalities, court-appointed trustees, and the judicial targeting of political rivals. Yavaş insisted that the Kurdish issue resolution should not be tied to electoral calculations and called for full implementation of constitutional and court decisions, judicial independence, and protection of elected officials' mandates.
tr41Turkey's FM warns Russia may use 'last option' as Ukraine war expands
Background: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Russia and stated that Russia's position on Ukraine remains unchanged, insisting on resolving the 'Donetsk issue' before any settlement, while Turkey offered to host peace talks. Today: In an interview with Anadolu's Editor's Desk, Fidan warned that the Russia-Ukraine war could escalate to the point where Russia uses its 'last option' as the conflict expands geographically and in targets and methods. He described the war's evolution from a 'front-line war of attrition' to a 'war of destruction' targeting civilians, and said that when neither side makes concessions, the war continues with growing violence until it creates its own area for concessions. He urged international intervention, noting that Western countries are aware of this danger. Fidan also revealed that during his Russia visit, the issue of Russia's 'last option' nearly came up in talks, as 'the public is now demanding such a thing.' He stressed that the sides seem to be waiting until they have completely exhausted each other before embracing peace talks, and that some parties believe ending the war under current conditions would cost them more than continuing it.
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Turkey's FM warns Russia may use 'last option' as Ukraine war expands
Background: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Russia and stated that Russia's position on Ukraine remains unchanged, insisting on resolving the 'Donetsk issue' before any settlement, while Turkey offered to host peace talks. Today: In an interview with Anadolu's Editor's Desk, Fidan warned that the Russia-Ukraine war could escalate to the point where Russia uses its 'last option' as the conflict expands geographically and in targets and methods. He described the war's evolution from a 'front-line war of attrition' to a 'war of destruction' targeting civilians, and said that when neither side makes concessions, the war continues with growing violence until it creates its own area for concessions. He urged international intervention, noting that Western countries are aware of this danger. Fidan also revealed that during his Russia visit, the issue of Russia's 'last option' nearly came up in talks, as 'the public is now demanding such a thing.' He stressed that the sides seem to be waiting until they have completely exhausted each other before embracing peace talks, and that some parties believe ending the war under current conditions would cost them more than continuing it.
Background: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Russia and stated that Russia's position on Ukraine remains unchanged, insisting on resolving the 'Donetsk issue' before any settlement, while Turkey offered to host peace talks. Today: In an interview with Anadolu's Editor's Desk, Fidan warned that the Russia-Ukraine war could escalate to the point where Russia uses its 'last option' as the conflict expands geographically and in targets and methods. He described the war's evolution from a 'front-line war of attrition' to a 'war of destruction' targeting civilians, and said that when neither side makes concessions, the war continues with growing violence until it creates its own area for concessions. He urged international intervention, noting that Western countries are aware of this danger. Fidan also revealed that during his Russia visit, the issue of Russia's 'last option' nearly came up in talks, as 'the public is now demanding such a thing.' He stressed that the sides seem to be waiting until they have completely exhausted each other before embracing peace talks, and that some parties believe ending the war under current conditions would cost them more than continuing it.
tr40Board of Peace envoy says Israel not required to withdraw from Gaza before disarmament
Background: The Board of Peace's envoy Nickolay Mladenov had previously blamed Hamas for the ceasefire stalemate, accusing it of refusing disarmament. Today, Mladenov told Israel's Channel 12 that Israel is not required to withdraw from Gaza until verified decommissioning of Palestinian weapons, contradicting his earlier position. He said Turkey and Qatar would help verify compliance under US control, and that the plan is not based on trust. This follows Israeli PM Netanyahu's rejection of the Board's 15-point roadmap, with Israel retaining the right to attack imminent threats. In the same Channel 12 interview, Mladenov reiterated these points, emphasizing the verification mechanism and the lack of reliance on trust, hours after Netanyahu's rejection.
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Board of Peace envoy says Israel not required to withdraw from Gaza before disarmament
Background: The Board of Peace's envoy Nickolay Mladenov had previously blamed Hamas for the ceasefire stalemate, accusing it of refusing disarmament. Today, Mladenov told Israel's Channel 12 that Israel is not required to withdraw from Gaza until verified decommissioning of Palestinian weapons, contradicting his earlier position. He said Turkey and Qatar would help verify compliance under US control, and that the plan is not based on trust. This follows Israeli PM Netanyahu's rejection of the Board's 15-point roadmap, with Israel retaining the right to attack imminent threats. In the same Channel 12 interview, Mladenov reiterated these points, emphasizing the verification mechanism and the lack of reliance on trust, hours after Netanyahu's rejection.
Background: The Board of Peace's envoy Nickolay Mladenov had previously blamed Hamas for the ceasefire stalemate, accusing it of refusing disarmament. Today, Mladenov told Israel's Channel 12 that Israel is not required to withdraw from Gaza until verified decommissioning of Palestinian weapons, contradicting his earlier position. He said Turkey and Qatar would help verify compliance under US control, and that the plan is not based on trust. This follows Israeli PM Netanyahu's rejection of the Board's 15-point roadmap, with Israel retaining the right to attack imminent threats. In the same Channel 12 interview, Mladenov reiterated these points, emphasizing the verification mechanism and the lack of reliance on trust, hours after Netanyahu's rejection.
tr39Jordanian drug trafficker operated in Turkey under false identity, evading extradition for years
An investigative report reveals that Waleed Issa Ahmad Khamees, a Jordanian drug trafficker with a 30-year criminal record, settled in Turkey under a false Serbian identity, obtained a residence permit, and established a company in Istanbul. Despite being subject to INTERPOL Red Notices and known to Turkish authorities, he operated freely until Brazilian officials provided his location. His extradition was repeatedly delayed by Turkish courts, raising concerns about corruption and Turkey's role as a haven for international criminals.
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Jordanian drug trafficker operated in Turkey under false identity, evading extradition for years
An investigative report reveals that Waleed Issa Ahmad Khamees, a Jordanian drug trafficker with a 30-year criminal record, settled in Turkey under a false Serbian identity, obtained a residence permit, and established a company in Istanbul. Despite being subject to INTERPOL Red Notices and known to Turkish authorities, he operated freely until Brazilian officials provided his location. His extradition was repeatedly delayed by Turkish courts, raising concerns about corruption and Turkey's role as a haven for international criminals.
An investigative report reveals that Waleed Issa Ahmad Khamees, a Jordanian drug trafficker with a 30-year criminal record, settled in Turkey under a false Serbian identity, obtained a residence permit, and established a company in Istanbul. Despite being subject to INTERPOL Red Notices and known to Turkish authorities, he operated freely until Brazilian officials provided his location. His extradition was repeatedly delayed by Turkish courts, raising concerns about corruption and Turkey's role as a haven for international criminals.
tr38Turkey's new cyber law transfers sweeping powers to presidency
Turkey has enacted a cyber law that shifts significant powers to the presidency, raising concerns about centralization of authority and potential impacts on digital rights and cybersecurity governance.
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Turkey's new cyber law transfers sweeping powers to presidency
Turkey has enacted a cyber law that shifts significant powers to the presidency, raising concerns about centralization of authority and potential impacts on digital rights and cybersecurity governance.
Turkey has enacted a cyber law that shifts significant powers to the presidency, raising concerns about centralization of authority and potential impacts on digital rights and cybersecurity governance.
tr35Turkey accelerates global energy expansion, targets 1 million boe/d via TPAO partnerships
Background: Turkey and Iraq signed a one-year extension of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline agreement, and Turkey announced plans to build new pipelines to transport Iraqi and Gulf oil and gas to Europe. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has since unveiled an accelerated international expansion strategy for TPAO, aiming to transform it into a global energy company producing 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). Current combined domestic and international production stands at around 330,000 boe/d, expected to approach 600,000 boe/d by 2028 as Sakarya Gas Field output increases. Key moves include a 15% stake in BP's Kirkuk fields, deep-sea drilling off Somalia, production-sharing agreements in Libya, and partnerships in Oman, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Kazakhstan, boosting Turkey's energy security and regional influence. In an exclusive interview with Anadolu Agency, Bayraktar detailed these developments: TPAO acquired a 15% stake in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited, partnering with BP and ConocoPhillips in the Baba, Avanah, Bai Hassan, Jambur, and Khabbaz fields, with estimated resources exceeding 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent. In Somalia, seismic surveys were completed in three offshore blocks over 234 days, and the drilling vessel Çağrı Bey is conducting Türkiye's first deep-sea exploration drilling abroad at the Curad-1 well. Production-sharing agreements signed in June enable exploration in Libya's onshore and offshore areas. The Oruç Reis vessel will move to Pakistan after the monsoon season for seismic work. In Oman, a Concession Agreement and Joint Operating Agreement were signed for Block 80. New operations are being developed in Guinea-Bissau, Angola, and Liberia. A June 1 agreement with SOCAR, TotalEnergies, and ADNOC will supply Türkiye with 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Azerbaijan over 15 years starting in 2029. Strategic cooperation agreements on natural gas exploration were signed with ExxonMobil (January), Chevron (February), BP (around same time), and TotalEnergies (April). In Hungary, 3D seismic data acquisition at the Buzsak field is complete, with surveys continuing at Tamasi. Joint exploration with Shell continues at Bulgaria's Khan Tervel field. A memorandum of understanding with KazMunayGas covers hydrocarbon exploration and oilfield services in Kazakhstan.
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Turkey accelerates global energy expansion, targets 1 million boe/d via TPAO partnerships
Background: Turkey and Iraq signed a one-year extension of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline agreement, and Turkey announced plans to build new pipelines to transport Iraqi and Gulf oil and gas to Europe. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has since unveiled an accelerated international expansion strategy for TPAO, aiming to transform it into a global energy company producing 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). Current combined domestic and international production stands at around 330,000 boe/d, expected to approach 600,000 boe/d by 2028 as Sakarya Gas Field output increases. Key moves include a 15% stake in BP's Kirkuk fields, deep-sea drilling off Somalia, production-sharing agreements in Libya, and partnerships in Oman, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Kazakhstan, boosting Turkey's energy security and regional influence. In an exclusive interview with Anadolu Agency, Bayraktar detailed these developments: TPAO acquired a 15% stake in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited, partnering with BP and ConocoPhillips in the Baba, Avanah, Bai Hassan, Jambur, and Khabbaz fields, with estimated resources exceeding 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent. In Somalia, seismic surveys were completed in three offshore blocks over 234 days, and the drilling vessel Çağrı Bey is conducting Türkiye's first deep-sea exploration drilling abroad at the Curad-1 well. Production-sharing agreements signed in June enable exploration in Libya's onshore and offshore areas. The Oruç Reis vessel will move to Pakistan after the monsoon season for seismic work. In Oman, a Concession Agreement and Joint Operating Agreement were signed for Block 80. New operations are being developed in Guinea-Bissau, Angola, and Liberia. A June 1 agreement with SOCAR, TotalEnergies, and ADNOC will supply Türkiye with 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Azerbaijan over 15 years starting in 2029. Strategic cooperation agreements on natural gas exploration were signed with ExxonMobil (January), Chevron (February), BP (around same time), and TotalEnergies (April). In Hungary, 3D seismic data acquisition at the Buzsak field is complete, with surveys continuing at Tamasi. Joint exploration with Shell continues at Bulgaria's Khan Tervel field. A memorandum of understanding with KazMunayGas covers hydrocarbon exploration and oilfield services in Kazakhstan.
Background: Turkey and Iraq signed a one-year extension of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline agreement, and Turkey announced plans to build new pipelines to transport Iraqi and Gulf oil and gas to Europe. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has since unveiled an accelerated international expansion strategy for TPAO, aiming to transform it into a global energy company producing 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). Current combined domestic and international production stands at around 330,000 boe/d, expected to approach 600,000 boe/d by 2028 as Sakarya Gas Field output increases. Key moves include a 15% stake in BP's Kirkuk fields, deep-sea drilling off Somalia, production-sharing agreements in Libya, and partnerships in Oman, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Kazakhstan, boosting Turkey's energy security and regional influence. In an exclusive interview with Anadolu Agency, Bayraktar detailed these developments: TPAO acquired a 15% stake in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited, partnering with BP and ConocoPhillips in the Baba, Avanah, Bai Hassan, Jambur, and Khabbaz fields, with estimated resources exceeding 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent. In Somalia, seismic surveys were completed in three offshore blocks over 234 days, and the drilling vessel Çağrı Bey is conducting Türkiye's first deep-sea exploration drilling abroad at the Curad-1 well. Production-sharing agreements signed in June enable exploration in Libya's onshore and offshore areas. The Oruç Reis vessel will move to Pakistan after the monsoon season for seismic work. In Oman, a Concession Agreement and Joint Operating Agreement were signed for Block 80. New operations are being developed in Guinea-Bissau, Angola, and Liberia. A June 1 agreement with SOCAR, TotalEnergies, and ADNOC will supply Türkiye with 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Azerbaijan over 15 years starting in 2029. Strategic cooperation agreements on natural gas exploration were signed with ExxonMobil (January), Chevron (February), BP (around same time), and TotalEnergies (April). In Hungary, 3D seismic data acquisition at the Buzsak field is complete, with surveys continuing at Tamasi. Joint exploration with Shell continues at Bulgaria's Khan Tervel field. A memorandum of understanding with KazMunayGas covers hydrocarbon exploration and oilfield services in Kazakhstan.
tr33Turkish Red Crescent Expands Water and Hygiene Aid in Gaza Amid Disease Risk
The Turkish Red Crescent (Kızılay) is distributing 100 tons of clean water daily and hygiene kits in Gaza to combat rising infectious diseases caused by high temperatures, poor sanitation, and damaged infrastructure. The organization has delivered about 200,000 hygiene packages, supports hospitals, operates soup kitchens providing 30,000 hot meals daily, and runs psychosocial programs for children amid the ongoing crisis.
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Turkish Red Crescent Expands Water and Hygiene Aid in Gaza Amid Disease Risk
The Turkish Red Crescent (Kızılay) is distributing 100 tons of clean water daily and hygiene kits in Gaza to combat rising infectious diseases caused by high temperatures, poor sanitation, and damaged infrastructure. The organization has delivered about 200,000 hygiene packages, supports hospitals, operates soup kitchens providing 30,000 hot meals daily, and runs psychosocial programs for children amid the ongoing crisis.
The Turkish Red Crescent (Kızılay) is distributing 100 tons of clean water daily and hygiene kits in Gaza to combat rising infectious diseases caused by high temperatures, poor sanitation, and damaged infrastructure. The organization has delivered about 200,000 hygiene packages, supports hospitals, operates soup kitchens providing 30,000 hot meals daily, and runs psychosocial programs for children amid the ongoing crisis.