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Today 24 August Briefing Read full brief

Erdoğan is turning every opening into a claim on more time

A proposed one-round presidential election, a conditional PKK pardon and Ankara’s request for an Interpol notice against Benjamin Netanyahu all widened Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s room to act. Peace at home and leverage abroad could be genuine gains, but each is being organised around the presidency’s need to outlast a fragmented opposition.

Key Indicators
Full catalog · 18

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28 key official events ahead
September 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Q2 2026 GDP release

Second-quarter gross domestic product print, the headline growth reading. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly two months after the quarter ends; the Q2 release lands around 1 September.

Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (August data)

Monthly CPI print for August. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (September)

Eighth scheduled 2026 MPC meeting (counting from January). Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.

October 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (September data)

Monthly CPI print for September; the 3rd falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (October)

Penultimate 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.

November 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (October data)

Monthly CPI print for October. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2026-IV

Final quarterly Inflation Report of 2026, presented at a Governor's briefing. Sets out the bank's updated inflation forecasts heading into 2027.

Statistics
TÜİK Labour Force Statistics release (October data)

Monthly unemployment and employment data for October, released in the mid-month window (15th falls on a weekend, shifting to the next working day) at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Financial Stability Report (November)

Second of the CBRT's two semi-annual Financial Stability Reports for 2026, assessing risks in the banking system, credit, FX and external balances.

December 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (November data)

Monthly CPI print for November. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (December)

Final 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time; the last rate-setting decision of the year.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy text for 2027

Annual monetary-policy framework document for the coming year, which also publishes the full 2027 schedule of MPC meeting and report dates. Sets out the inflation target and policy approach for 2027.

Statistics
TÜİK Q3 2026 GDP release

Third-quarter gross domestic product print. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly 80 days after the quarter ends; the Q3 release lands in late December. (provisional date pending TÜİK release calendar)

January 2027
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (December data)

Monthly CPI print for December and the full-year 2026 inflation figure; 3 January falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (January)

First MPC decision of 2027, now listed in the CBRT's official meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (January)

First MPC meeting of 2027, expected in the fourth week of January in line with the CBRT's usual cadence. (provisional date; the official 2027 schedule is published with the December 2026 monetary-policy text)

February 2027
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (January 2027 data)

Monthly CPI print for January 2027. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time. (provisional; based on TÜİK's standard ~3rd-of-month cadence)

Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2027-I

First quarterly Inflation Report of 2027, presented at a Governor's briefing with updated inflation forecasts. (provisional date; the 2026-I report was published on 12 February 2026 and the exact 2027 date is confirmed with the December 2026 schedule)

March 2027
Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest-rate decision (March)

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT publishes summary of the March MPC meeting

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

April 2027
Election
Turkish constitutional referendum (potential)

AKP signals a possible referendum on a new constitution, linked to the renewed Kurdish peace process and a potential reset of presidential term limits. Targeted for autumn 2026 or, more likely, spring 2027. (provisional; no official date called, exact date is speculative)

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest-rate decision (April)

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT publishes summary of the April MPC meeting

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

May 2027
Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2027-II

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT Financial Stability Report (May 2027)

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

June 2027
Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest-rate decision (June)

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT publishes summary of the June MPC meeting

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

July 2027
Parliament
TBMM summer recess begins under the standard timetable

The Assembly's standard timetable begins the summer recess on 1 July, subject to a TBMM decision to continue sitting. (provisional; the Assembly can alter the recess timetable)

Turkey

Recent events

24
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Turkey Extracts First Shale Oil in Diyarbakır, Aims to Become Oil Hub

Turkey has achieved a milestone in its domestic energy strategy by extracting its first shale oil from a depth of approximately 4,000 meters in Diyarbakır province, between Silvan and Bismil districts. The operation, conducted by Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) in partnership with a U.S. company, yields oil of quality comparable to Middle Eastern grades. Officials estimate reserves could be worth $540 billion, with potential annual economic contribution of $8 billion. This development is part of Turkey's 'Domestic and National Energy' initiative, aiming to reduce energy imports and position Diyarbakır as a future oil hub.

Show summary

Turkey has achieved a milestone in its domestic energy strategy by extracting its first shale oil from a depth of approximately 4,000 meters in Diyarbakır province, between Silvan and Bismil districts. The operation, conducted by Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) in partnership with a U.S. company, yields oil of quality comparable to Middle Eastern grades. Officials estimate reserves could be worth $540 billion, with potential annual economic contribution of $8 billion. This development is part of Turkey's 'Domestic and National Energy' initiative, aiming to reduce energy imports and position Diyarbakır as a future oil hub.

tr43

TRNC PM Defends Gas Pipeline Deal as Greek Cypriots Take Complaint to UN

Background: Turkish President Erdogan reaffirmed support for Turkish Cypriots and announced new infrastructure projects, including a subsea natural gas pipeline. The project, formalized via a memorandum of understanding on July 10, would connect Anamur in Türkiye to Teknecik in the TRNC, aiming to supply gas and potentially export future Cypriot production. Today, the Greek Cypriot administration has formally complained to the UN, urging intervention to halt the planned pipeline. TRNC Prime Minister Unal Ustel defended the agreement as a matter of TRNC sovereignty and energy security, dismissing the complaint as an attempt to hinder Turkish Cypriot development and ties with Türkiye.

Show summary

Background: Turkish President Erdogan reaffirmed support for Turkish Cypriots and announced new infrastructure projects, including a subsea natural gas pipeline. The project, formalized via a memorandum of understanding on July 10, would connect Anamur in Türkiye to Teknecik in the TRNC, aiming to supply gas and potentially export future Cypriot production. Today, the Greek Cypriot administration has formally complained to the UN, urging intervention to halt the planned pipeline. TRNC Prime Minister Unal Ustel defended the agreement as a matter of TRNC sovereignty and energy security, dismissing the complaint as an attempt to hinder Turkish Cypriot development and ties with Türkiye.

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Turkey's Aselsan unveils indigenous infrared detector for defense platforms

Aselsan, Turkey's leading defense electronics company, has unveiled an indigenous infrared detector, placing Turkey among a select group of nations capable of producing this advanced technology. The detector is set to be integrated into key platforms including the Altay main battle tank, Bayraktar Kızılelma UCAV, and the Steel Dome air defense system, enhancing night vision and target detection in adverse weather. This development underscores Turkey's broader strategy to bolster its defense industry and achieve technological independence, with the sector already generating $11.2 billion in exports and aiming for $15 billion including services.

Show summary

Aselsan, Turkey's leading defense electronics company, has unveiled an indigenous infrared detector, placing Turkey among a select group of nations capable of producing this advanced technology. The detector is set to be integrated into key platforms including the Altay main battle tank, Bayraktar Kızılelma UCAV, and the Steel Dome air defense system, enhancing night vision and target detection in adverse weather. This development underscores Turkey's broader strategy to bolster its defense industry and achieve technological independence, with the sector already generating $11.2 billion in exports and aiming for $15 billion including services.

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Turkey's Finance Minister Announces TL 484 Billion Public Sector Savings for 2024-2025

Turkish Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek announced that public sector savings reached TL 484 billion (about $10 billion) in 2024-2025, exceeding the combined 2026 budgets of six ministries. The savings, achieved through austerity measures including strengthened expenditure controls and a monitoring system covering 260 public administrations, are part of Ankara's fiscal discipline strategy to direct resources to priority areas and support disinflation. The measures also reduced the share of austerity-scope expenditures in the budget from 4.6% to 2.9% over the period.

Show summary

Turkish Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek announced that public sector savings reached TL 484 billion (about $10 billion) in 2024-2025, exceeding the combined 2026 budgets of six ministries. The savings, achieved through austerity measures including strengthened expenditure controls and a monitoring system covering 260 public administrations, are part of Ankara's fiscal discipline strategy to direct resources to priority areas and support disinflation. The measures also reduced the share of austerity-scope expenditures in the budget from 4.6% to 2.9% over the period.

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CHP under Kılıçdaroğlu sets convention timetable amid internal restructuring

Background: Özgür Özel and 91 other MPs founded the New Party (Yeni Parti) after a court reinstated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as CHP leader, making the YP the main opposition. Today, Kılıçdaroğlu is convening the CHP's central administrative board and party assembly on August 26, 2026, to set a timetable for the next party convention and provincial/district congresses ahead of the September launch of the pre-election process. He remains uncontested as Özel has left to form the YP. The meeting will also discuss increasing the number of provincial and district board members, pardoning some members facing disciplinary proceedings, and continuing his pledge to 'cleanse' the party of corruption linked to mayors and officials, including expulsion processes for Özel loyalists implicated in corruption investigations.

Show summary

Background: Özgür Özel and 91 other MPs founded the New Party (Yeni Parti) after a court reinstated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as CHP leader, making the YP the main opposition. Today, Kılıçdaroğlu is convening the CHP's central administrative board and party assembly on August 26, 2026, to set a timetable for the next party convention and provincial/district congresses ahead of the September launch of the pre-election process. He remains uncontested as Özel has left to form the YP. The meeting will also discuss increasing the number of provincial and district board members, pardoning some members facing disciplinary proceedings, and continuing his pledge to 'cleanse' the party of corruption linked to mayors and officials, including expulsion processes for Özel loyalists implicated in corruption investigations.

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Turkey arrests 35 in crackdown on Kuytul crime network

Turkish authorities arrested 35 individuals, including Alparslan Kuytul and his wife, on charges of running a criminal organization, fraud, and money laundering. The arrests followed a coordinated operation across six provinces targeting the 'Kuytulcular' group, linked to the Furkan Education and Service Foundation. Authorities also blocked 349 social media accounts and appointed trustees to five companies. The crackdown is part of a broader effort against religious movements accused of illicit financial activities.

Show summary

Turkish authorities arrested 35 individuals, including Alparslan Kuytul and his wife, on charges of running a criminal organization, fraud, and money laundering. The arrests followed a coordinated operation across six provinces targeting the 'Kuytulcular' group, linked to the Furkan Education and Service Foundation. Authorities also blocked 349 social media accounts and appointed trustees to five companies. The crackdown is part of a broader effort against religious movements accused of illicit financial activities.

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Russia Expands Air Shadow Fleet and Libyan Bases to Support Sahel Operations

Background: A C4ADS report documented at least 75 Russian state-aligned military flights to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger between January 2025 and July 2026, using operators like Flight Unit 224 and refueling at Russian bases in Syria and Libya. Today's development: New details reveal additional unsanctioned operators (Sapsan Airlines, Liz Aviation, Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry) and the use of commercial hubs in Turkey, Algeria, and the UAE. Czech MEP Tomáš Zdechovský urged EU sanctions. Russia is also expanding infrastructure at six Libyan air bases to support its Africa Corps, according to US NGA data.

Show summary

Background: A C4ADS report documented at least 75 Russian state-aligned military flights to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger between January 2025 and July 2026, using operators like Flight Unit 224 and refueling at Russian bases in Syria and Libya. Today's development: New details reveal additional unsanctioned operators (Sapsan Airlines, Liz Aviation, Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry) and the use of commercial hubs in Turkey, Algeria, and the UAE. Czech MEP Tomáš Zdechovský urged EU sanctions. Russia is also expanding infrastructure at six Libyan air bases to support its Africa Corps, according to US NGA data.

tr23

Turkish Opposition Leaders Meet as Future Party Dissolves

Background: Former Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoğlu dissolved his Future Party and exited party politics, citing the political system's inability to reform, amid opposition fragmentation. On August 23, 2026, leaders of five Turkish opposition parties without parliamentary seats—Victory Party (ZP), National Path Party (MYP), Independent Party of Türkiye (BTP), Justice Party (AP), and Blessed Party (Kutlu Party)—met in Ankara for consultations. While they denied immediate alliance plans, MYP chair Remzi Çayır hinted at possible future alliance, and ZP chair Ümit Özdağ called it a platform for fruitful consultations. The meeting coincided with the formal dissolution of the Future Party (GP), which had lost most of its lawmakers over the past three years, with remaining members joining the New Path bloc led by the Felicity Party (SP). The meeting underscores ongoing realignment among Turkey's fragmented opposition ahead of the next election, expected to be a two-horse race between the ruling AK Party and the main opposition New Party (YP).

Show summary

Background: Former Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoğlu dissolved his Future Party and exited party politics, citing the political system's inability to reform, amid opposition fragmentation. On August 23, 2026, leaders of five Turkish opposition parties without parliamentary seats—Victory Party (ZP), National Path Party (MYP), Independent Party of Türkiye (BTP), Justice Party (AP), and Blessed Party (Kutlu Party)—met in Ankara for consultations. While they denied immediate alliance plans, MYP chair Remzi Çayır hinted at possible future alliance, and ZP chair Ümit Özdağ called it a platform for fruitful consultations. The meeting coincided with the formal dissolution of the Future Party (GP), which had lost most of its lawmakers over the past three years, with remaining members joining the New Path bloc led by the Felicity Party (SP). The meeting underscores ongoing realignment among Turkey's fragmented opposition ahead of the next election, expected to be a two-horse race between the ruling AK Party and the main opposition New Party (YP).

Frequently Asked

5
What election change is Erdoğan promoting?
Erdoğan and MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli are promoting replacing Turkey's two-round presidential vote with a single-round plurality contest, which could return Erdoğan with less than half the vote.
What does Turkey's new PKK law do?
Turkey signed a law offering conditional pardons and sentence relief to thousands of PKK members after Abdullah Öcalan's call for disarmament and the group's declared dissolution.
Why are Kurdish activists wary of the peace process?
Kurdish activists are wary because Öcalan and Selahattin Demirtaş remain imprisoned, and the law addresses disarmament more clearly than language rights, local democracy, or political representation.
What is the potential value of Turkey's shale oil find?
Officials put the potential resource value at $540 billion and the possible annual contribution at $8 billion, though these are preliminary estimates, not revenue.
What is the Mecca defence pact?
Turkey signed a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which IISS calls a formal sign of regional realignment after the Iran war, though analysts caution military support will be specific.