Second-quarter gross domestic product print, the headline growth reading. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly two months after the quarter ends; the Q2 release lands around 1 September.
Erdoğan is turning every opening into a claim on more time
A proposed one-round presidential election, a conditional PKK pardon and Ankara’s request for an Interpol notice against Benjamin Netanyahu all widened Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s room to act. Peace at home and leverage abroad could be genuine gains, but each is being organised around the presidency’s need to outlast a fragmented opposition.
Upcoming
28 key official events aheadMonthly CPI print for August. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.
Eighth scheduled 2026 MPC meeting (counting from January). Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.
Monthly CPI print for September; the 3rd falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.
Penultimate 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.
Monthly CPI print for October. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.
Final quarterly Inflation Report of 2026, presented at a Governor's briefing. Sets out the bank's updated inflation forecasts heading into 2027.
Monthly unemployment and employment data for October, released in the mid-month window (15th falls on a weekend, shifting to the next working day) at 10:00 Ankara time.
Second of the CBRT's two semi-annual Financial Stability Reports for 2026, assessing risks in the banking system, credit, FX and external balances.
Monthly CPI print for November. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.
Final 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time; the last rate-setting decision of the year.
Annual monetary-policy framework document for the coming year, which also publishes the full 2027 schedule of MPC meeting and report dates. Sets out the inflation target and policy approach for 2027.
Third-quarter gross domestic product print. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly 80 days after the quarter ends; the Q3 release lands in late December. (provisional date pending TÜİK release calendar)
Monthly CPI print for December and the full-year 2026 inflation figure; 3 January falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.
First MPC decision of 2027, now listed in the CBRT's official meetings and reports calendar.
First MPC meeting of 2027, expected in the fourth week of January in line with the CBRT's usual cadence. (provisional date; the official 2027 schedule is published with the December 2026 monetary-policy text)
Monthly CPI print for January 2027. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time. (provisional; based on TÜİK's standard ~3rd-of-month cadence)
First quarterly Inflation Report of 2027, presented at a Governor's briefing with updated inflation forecasts. (provisional date; the 2026-I report was published on 12 February 2026 and the exact 2027 date is confirmed with the December 2026 schedule)
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
AKP signals a possible referendum on a new constitution, linked to the renewed Kurdish peace process and a potential reset of presidential term limits. Targeted for autumn 2026 or, more likely, spring 2027. (provisional; no official date called, exact date is speculative)
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
The Assembly's standard timetable begins the summer recess on 1 July, subject to a TBMM decision to continue sitting. (provisional; the Assembly can alter the recess timetable)
Recent events
tr45Turkey Extracts First Shale Oil in Diyarbakır, Aims to Become Oil Hub
Turkey has achieved a milestone in its domestic energy strategy by extracting its first shale oil from a depth of approximately 4,000 meters in Diyarbakır province, between Silvan and Bismil districts. The operation, conducted by Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) in partnership with a U.S. company, yields oil of quality comparable to Middle Eastern grades. Officials estimate reserves could be worth $540 billion, with potential annual economic contribution of $8 billion. This development is part of Turkey's 'Domestic and National Energy' initiative, aiming to reduce energy imports and position Diyarbakır as a future oil hub.
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Turkey Extracts First Shale Oil in Diyarbakır, Aims to Become Oil Hub
Turkey has achieved a milestone in its domestic energy strategy by extracting its first shale oil from a depth of approximately 4,000 meters in Diyarbakır province, between Silvan and Bismil districts. The operation, conducted by Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) in partnership with a U.S. company, yields oil of quality comparable to Middle Eastern grades. Officials estimate reserves could be worth $540 billion, with potential annual economic contribution of $8 billion. This development is part of Turkey's 'Domestic and National Energy' initiative, aiming to reduce energy imports and position Diyarbakır as a future oil hub.
Turkey has achieved a milestone in its domestic energy strategy by extracting its first shale oil from a depth of approximately 4,000 meters in Diyarbakır province, between Silvan and Bismil districts. The operation, conducted by Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) in partnership with a U.S. company, yields oil of quality comparable to Middle Eastern grades. Officials estimate reserves could be worth $540 billion, with potential annual economic contribution of $8 billion. This development is part of Turkey's 'Domestic and National Energy' initiative, aiming to reduce energy imports and position Diyarbakır as a future oil hub.
tr43TRNC PM Defends Gas Pipeline Deal as Greek Cypriots Take Complaint to UN
Background: Turkish President Erdogan reaffirmed support for Turkish Cypriots and announced new infrastructure projects, including a subsea natural gas pipeline. The project, formalized via a memorandum of understanding on July 10, would connect Anamur in Türkiye to Teknecik in the TRNC, aiming to supply gas and potentially export future Cypriot production. Today, the Greek Cypriot administration has formally complained to the UN, urging intervention to halt the planned pipeline. TRNC Prime Minister Unal Ustel defended the agreement as a matter of TRNC sovereignty and energy security, dismissing the complaint as an attempt to hinder Turkish Cypriot development and ties with Türkiye.
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TRNC PM Defends Gas Pipeline Deal as Greek Cypriots Take Complaint to UN
Background: Turkish President Erdogan reaffirmed support for Turkish Cypriots and announced new infrastructure projects, including a subsea natural gas pipeline. The project, formalized via a memorandum of understanding on July 10, would connect Anamur in Türkiye to Teknecik in the TRNC, aiming to supply gas and potentially export future Cypriot production. Today, the Greek Cypriot administration has formally complained to the UN, urging intervention to halt the planned pipeline. TRNC Prime Minister Unal Ustel defended the agreement as a matter of TRNC sovereignty and energy security, dismissing the complaint as an attempt to hinder Turkish Cypriot development and ties with Türkiye.
Background: Turkish President Erdogan reaffirmed support for Turkish Cypriots and announced new infrastructure projects, including a subsea natural gas pipeline. The project, formalized via a memorandum of understanding on July 10, would connect Anamur in Türkiye to Teknecik in the TRNC, aiming to supply gas and potentially export future Cypriot production. Today, the Greek Cypriot administration has formally complained to the UN, urging intervention to halt the planned pipeline. TRNC Prime Minister Unal Ustel defended the agreement as a matter of TRNC sovereignty and energy security, dismissing the complaint as an attempt to hinder Turkish Cypriot development and ties with Türkiye.
tr35Turkey's Aselsan unveils indigenous infrared detector for defense platforms
Aselsan, Turkey's leading defense electronics company, has unveiled an indigenous infrared detector, placing Turkey among a select group of nations capable of producing this advanced technology. The detector is set to be integrated into key platforms including the Altay main battle tank, Bayraktar Kızılelma UCAV, and the Steel Dome air defense system, enhancing night vision and target detection in adverse weather. This development underscores Turkey's broader strategy to bolster its defense industry and achieve technological independence, with the sector already generating $11.2 billion in exports and aiming for $15 billion including services.
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Turkey's Aselsan unveils indigenous infrared detector for defense platforms
Aselsan, Turkey's leading defense electronics company, has unveiled an indigenous infrared detector, placing Turkey among a select group of nations capable of producing this advanced technology. The detector is set to be integrated into key platforms including the Altay main battle tank, Bayraktar Kızılelma UCAV, and the Steel Dome air defense system, enhancing night vision and target detection in adverse weather. This development underscores Turkey's broader strategy to bolster its defense industry and achieve technological independence, with the sector already generating $11.2 billion in exports and aiming for $15 billion including services.
Aselsan, Turkey's leading defense electronics company, has unveiled an indigenous infrared detector, placing Turkey among a select group of nations capable of producing this advanced technology. The detector is set to be integrated into key platforms including the Altay main battle tank, Bayraktar Kızılelma UCAV, and the Steel Dome air defense system, enhancing night vision and target detection in adverse weather. This development underscores Turkey's broader strategy to bolster its defense industry and achieve technological independence, with the sector already generating $11.2 billion in exports and aiming for $15 billion including services.
tr33Turkey's Finance Minister Announces TL 484 Billion Public Sector Savings for 2024-2025
Turkish Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek announced that public sector savings reached TL 484 billion (about $10 billion) in 2024-2025, exceeding the combined 2026 budgets of six ministries. The savings, achieved through austerity measures including strengthened expenditure controls and a monitoring system covering 260 public administrations, are part of Ankara's fiscal discipline strategy to direct resources to priority areas and support disinflation. The measures also reduced the share of austerity-scope expenditures in the budget from 4.6% to 2.9% over the period.
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Turkey's Finance Minister Announces TL 484 Billion Public Sector Savings for 2024-2025
Turkish Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek announced that public sector savings reached TL 484 billion (about $10 billion) in 2024-2025, exceeding the combined 2026 budgets of six ministries. The savings, achieved through austerity measures including strengthened expenditure controls and a monitoring system covering 260 public administrations, are part of Ankara's fiscal discipline strategy to direct resources to priority areas and support disinflation. The measures also reduced the share of austerity-scope expenditures in the budget from 4.6% to 2.9% over the period.
Turkish Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek announced that public sector savings reached TL 484 billion (about $10 billion) in 2024-2025, exceeding the combined 2026 budgets of six ministries. The savings, achieved through austerity measures including strengthened expenditure controls and a monitoring system covering 260 public administrations, are part of Ankara's fiscal discipline strategy to direct resources to priority areas and support disinflation. The measures also reduced the share of austerity-scope expenditures in the budget from 4.6% to 2.9% over the period.
tr30CHP under Kılıçdaroğlu sets convention timetable amid internal restructuring
Background: Özgür Özel and 91 other MPs founded the New Party (Yeni Parti) after a court reinstated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as CHP leader, making the YP the main opposition. Today, Kılıçdaroğlu is convening the CHP's central administrative board and party assembly on August 26, 2026, to set a timetable for the next party convention and provincial/district congresses ahead of the September launch of the pre-election process. He remains uncontested as Özel has left to form the YP. The meeting will also discuss increasing the number of provincial and district board members, pardoning some members facing disciplinary proceedings, and continuing his pledge to 'cleanse' the party of corruption linked to mayors and officials, including expulsion processes for Özel loyalists implicated in corruption investigations.
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CHP under Kılıçdaroğlu sets convention timetable amid internal restructuring
Background: Özgür Özel and 91 other MPs founded the New Party (Yeni Parti) after a court reinstated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as CHP leader, making the YP the main opposition. Today, Kılıçdaroğlu is convening the CHP's central administrative board and party assembly on August 26, 2026, to set a timetable for the next party convention and provincial/district congresses ahead of the September launch of the pre-election process. He remains uncontested as Özel has left to form the YP. The meeting will also discuss increasing the number of provincial and district board members, pardoning some members facing disciplinary proceedings, and continuing his pledge to 'cleanse' the party of corruption linked to mayors and officials, including expulsion processes for Özel loyalists implicated in corruption investigations.
Background: Özgür Özel and 91 other MPs founded the New Party (Yeni Parti) after a court reinstated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as CHP leader, making the YP the main opposition. Today, Kılıçdaroğlu is convening the CHP's central administrative board and party assembly on August 26, 2026, to set a timetable for the next party convention and provincial/district congresses ahead of the September launch of the pre-election process. He remains uncontested as Özel has left to form the YP. The meeting will also discuss increasing the number of provincial and district board members, pardoning some members facing disciplinary proceedings, and continuing his pledge to 'cleanse' the party of corruption linked to mayors and officials, including expulsion processes for Özel loyalists implicated in corruption investigations.
tr28Turkey arrests 35 in crackdown on Kuytul crime network
Turkish authorities arrested 35 individuals, including Alparslan Kuytul and his wife, on charges of running a criminal organization, fraud, and money laundering. The arrests followed a coordinated operation across six provinces targeting the 'Kuytulcular' group, linked to the Furkan Education and Service Foundation. Authorities also blocked 349 social media accounts and appointed trustees to five companies. The crackdown is part of a broader effort against religious movements accused of illicit financial activities.
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Turkey arrests 35 in crackdown on Kuytul crime network
Turkish authorities arrested 35 individuals, including Alparslan Kuytul and his wife, on charges of running a criminal organization, fraud, and money laundering. The arrests followed a coordinated operation across six provinces targeting the 'Kuytulcular' group, linked to the Furkan Education and Service Foundation. Authorities also blocked 349 social media accounts and appointed trustees to five companies. The crackdown is part of a broader effort against religious movements accused of illicit financial activities.
Turkish authorities arrested 35 individuals, including Alparslan Kuytul and his wife, on charges of running a criminal organization, fraud, and money laundering. The arrests followed a coordinated operation across six provinces targeting the 'Kuytulcular' group, linked to the Furkan Education and Service Foundation. Authorities also blocked 349 social media accounts and appointed trustees to five companies. The crackdown is part of a broader effort against religious movements accused of illicit financial activities.
tr25Russia Expands Air Shadow Fleet and Libyan Bases to Support Sahel Operations
Background: A C4ADS report documented at least 75 Russian state-aligned military flights to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger between January 2025 and July 2026, using operators like Flight Unit 224 and refueling at Russian bases in Syria and Libya. Today's development: New details reveal additional unsanctioned operators (Sapsan Airlines, Liz Aviation, Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry) and the use of commercial hubs in Turkey, Algeria, and the UAE. Czech MEP Tomáš Zdechovský urged EU sanctions. Russia is also expanding infrastructure at six Libyan air bases to support its Africa Corps, according to US NGA data.
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Russia Expands Air Shadow Fleet and Libyan Bases to Support Sahel Operations
Background: A C4ADS report documented at least 75 Russian state-aligned military flights to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger between January 2025 and July 2026, using operators like Flight Unit 224 and refueling at Russian bases in Syria and Libya. Today's development: New details reveal additional unsanctioned operators (Sapsan Airlines, Liz Aviation, Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry) and the use of commercial hubs in Turkey, Algeria, and the UAE. Czech MEP Tomáš Zdechovský urged EU sanctions. Russia is also expanding infrastructure at six Libyan air bases to support its Africa Corps, according to US NGA data.
Background: A C4ADS report documented at least 75 Russian state-aligned military flights to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger between January 2025 and July 2026, using operators like Flight Unit 224 and refueling at Russian bases in Syria and Libya. Today's development: New details reveal additional unsanctioned operators (Sapsan Airlines, Liz Aviation, Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry) and the use of commercial hubs in Turkey, Algeria, and the UAE. Czech MEP Tomáš Zdechovský urged EU sanctions. Russia is also expanding infrastructure at six Libyan air bases to support its Africa Corps, according to US NGA data.
tr23Turkish Opposition Leaders Meet as Future Party Dissolves
Background: Former Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoğlu dissolved his Future Party and exited party politics, citing the political system's inability to reform, amid opposition fragmentation. On August 23, 2026, leaders of five Turkish opposition parties without parliamentary seats—Victory Party (ZP), National Path Party (MYP), Independent Party of Türkiye (BTP), Justice Party (AP), and Blessed Party (Kutlu Party)—met in Ankara for consultations. While they denied immediate alliance plans, MYP chair Remzi Çayır hinted at possible future alliance, and ZP chair Ümit Özdağ called it a platform for fruitful consultations. The meeting coincided with the formal dissolution of the Future Party (GP), which had lost most of its lawmakers over the past three years, with remaining members joining the New Path bloc led by the Felicity Party (SP). The meeting underscores ongoing realignment among Turkey's fragmented opposition ahead of the next election, expected to be a two-horse race between the ruling AK Party and the main opposition New Party (YP).
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Turkish Opposition Leaders Meet as Future Party Dissolves
Background: Former Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoğlu dissolved his Future Party and exited party politics, citing the political system's inability to reform, amid opposition fragmentation. On August 23, 2026, leaders of five Turkish opposition parties without parliamentary seats—Victory Party (ZP), National Path Party (MYP), Independent Party of Türkiye (BTP), Justice Party (AP), and Blessed Party (Kutlu Party)—met in Ankara for consultations. While they denied immediate alliance plans, MYP chair Remzi Çayır hinted at possible future alliance, and ZP chair Ümit Özdağ called it a platform for fruitful consultations. The meeting coincided with the formal dissolution of the Future Party (GP), which had lost most of its lawmakers over the past three years, with remaining members joining the New Path bloc led by the Felicity Party (SP). The meeting underscores ongoing realignment among Turkey's fragmented opposition ahead of the next election, expected to be a two-horse race between the ruling AK Party and the main opposition New Party (YP).
Background: Former Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoğlu dissolved his Future Party and exited party politics, citing the political system's inability to reform, amid opposition fragmentation. On August 23, 2026, leaders of five Turkish opposition parties without parliamentary seats—Victory Party (ZP), National Path Party (MYP), Independent Party of Türkiye (BTP), Justice Party (AP), and Blessed Party (Kutlu Party)—met in Ankara for consultations. While they denied immediate alliance plans, MYP chair Remzi Çayır hinted at possible future alliance, and ZP chair Ümit Özdağ called it a platform for fruitful consultations. The meeting coincided with the formal dissolution of the Future Party (GP), which had lost most of its lawmakers over the past three years, with remaining members joining the New Path bloc led by the Felicity Party (SP). The meeting underscores ongoing realignment among Turkey's fragmented opposition ahead of the next election, expected to be a two-horse race between the ruling AK Party and the main opposition New Party (YP).