Second-quarter gross domestic product print, the headline growth reading. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly two months after the quarter ends; the Q2 release lands around 1 September.
Turkey is opening its alliances and closing its politics
Ankara invited Egypt toward a new defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan while transferring surveillance and censorship powers to an agency under the presidency. The opposition splintered around the imprisoned Ekrem İmamoğlu and a new Kurdish initiative advanced, giving Erdoğan more regional options and more domestic control at the same time.
Upcoming
28 key official events aheadMonthly CPI print for August. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.
Eighth scheduled 2026 MPC meeting (counting from January). Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.
Monthly CPI print for September; the 3rd falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.
Penultimate 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.
Monthly CPI print for October. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.
Final quarterly Inflation Report of 2026, presented at a Governor's briefing. Sets out the bank's updated inflation forecasts heading into 2027.
Monthly unemployment and employment data for October, released in the mid-month window (15th falls on a weekend, shifting to the next working day) at 10:00 Ankara time.
Second of the CBRT's two semi-annual Financial Stability Reports for 2026, assessing risks in the banking system, credit, FX and external balances.
Monthly CPI print for November. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.
Final 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time; the last rate-setting decision of the year.
Annual monetary-policy framework document for the coming year, which also publishes the full 2027 schedule of MPC meeting and report dates. Sets out the inflation target and policy approach for 2027.
Third-quarter gross domestic product print. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly 80 days after the quarter ends; the Q3 release lands in late December. (provisional date pending TÜİK release calendar)
Monthly CPI print for December and the full-year 2026 inflation figure; 3 January falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.
First MPC decision of 2027, now listed in the CBRT's official meetings and reports calendar.
First MPC meeting of 2027, expected in the fourth week of January in line with the CBRT's usual cadence. (provisional date; the official 2027 schedule is published with the December 2026 monetary-policy text)
Monthly CPI print for January 2027. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time. (provisional; based on TÜİK's standard ~3rd-of-month cadence)
First quarterly Inflation Report of 2027, presented at a Governor's briefing with updated inflation forecasts. (provisional date; the 2026-I report was published on 12 February 2026 and the exact 2027 date is confirmed with the December 2026 schedule)
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
AKP signals a possible referendum on a new constitution, linked to the renewed Kurdish peace process and a potential reset of presidential term limits. Targeted for autumn 2026 or, more likely, spring 2027. (provisional; no official date called, exact date is speculative)
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.
The Assembly's standard timetable begins the summer recess on 1 July, subject to a TBMM decision to continue sitting. (provisional; the Assembly can alter the recess timetable)
Recent events
tr43Süleymancılar leader Alihan Kuriş remanded in custody; gold and cash seized in raids
Background: Turkish authorities had detained Alihan Kuriş, leader of the Süleymancılar religious community, and 29 others in a nationwide operation on charges of running a criminal organization, money laundering, tax evasion, and fraud, with allegations of over $2.4 billion transferred abroad. Today: On August 16, 2026, Kuriş and 31 others were formally remanded in custody. Police raids uncovered large amounts of cash and jewelry at Kuriş's residence, and 200 kilograms of gold nuggets of unknown origin at a property owned by his brother Hilmi Tuna Kuriş, who remains at large. Documents were found being destroyed during a search in Istanbul's Ümraniye district. FETÖ members have publicly supported Kuriş, claiming the government is targeting a religious movement.
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Süleymancılar leader Alihan Kuriş remanded in custody; gold and cash seized in raids
Background: Turkish authorities had detained Alihan Kuriş, leader of the Süleymancılar religious community, and 29 others in a nationwide operation on charges of running a criminal organization, money laundering, tax evasion, and fraud, with allegations of over $2.4 billion transferred abroad. Today: On August 16, 2026, Kuriş and 31 others were formally remanded in custody. Police raids uncovered large amounts of cash and jewelry at Kuriş's residence, and 200 kilograms of gold nuggets of unknown origin at a property owned by his brother Hilmi Tuna Kuriş, who remains at large. Documents were found being destroyed during a search in Istanbul's Ümraniye district. FETÖ members have publicly supported Kuriş, claiming the government is targeting a religious movement.
Background: Turkish authorities had detained Alihan Kuriş, leader of the Süleymancılar religious community, and 29 others in a nationwide operation on charges of running a criminal organization, money laundering, tax evasion, and fraud, with allegations of over $2.4 billion transferred abroad. Today: On August 16, 2026, Kuriş and 31 others were formally remanded in custody. Police raids uncovered large amounts of cash and jewelry at Kuriş's residence, and 200 kilograms of gold nuggets of unknown origin at a property owned by his brother Hilmi Tuna Kuriş, who remains at large. Documents were found being destroyed during a search in Istanbul's Ümraniye district. FETÖ members have publicly supported Kuriş, claiming the government is targeting a religious movement.
tr41Erdogan in Al Jazeera interview: Hamas sincere, Israel aggressive on Gaza and Lebanon
In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Hamas has shown sincere solidarity, while criticizing Israel's military actions in Gaza and Lebanon as aggressive. He expressed serious concern over Israeli attacks on Lebanon, noting Ankara's unease over regional instability. Erdogan also mentioned that US President Trump is concerned about the situation and that Turkey will continue to warn against further escalation.
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Erdogan in Al Jazeera interview: Hamas sincere, Israel aggressive on Gaza and Lebanon
In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Hamas has shown sincere solidarity, while criticizing Israel's military actions in Gaza and Lebanon as aggressive. He expressed serious concern over Israeli attacks on Lebanon, noting Ankara's unease over regional instability. Erdogan also mentioned that US President Trump is concerned about the situation and that Turkey will continue to warn against further escalation.
In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Hamas has shown sincere solidarity, while criticizing Israel's military actions in Gaza and Lebanon as aggressive. He expressed serious concern over Israeli attacks on Lebanon, noting Ankara's unease over regional instability. Erdogan also mentioned that US President Trump is concerned about the situation and that Turkey will continue to warn against further escalation.
tr39Dutch-Turkish ISIS Convict Captured in Somalia After Rebuilding Jihadist Ties in Turkey
Hasan Rafet Atar, a Dutch-born Turkish national convicted in the Netherlands of preparing a terrorist attack and deported to Turkey in 2022, reconnected with ISIS while living in Turkey and traveled to Somalia, where he joined ISIS-Somalia. He was captured by Puntland forces in December 2024 carrying an AK-47 and is now imprisoned awaiting trial. The case raises questions about Turkish counterterrorism enforcement, as Atar was known to authorities and was able to establish contact with an ISIS recruiter and arrange travel to Somalia from Turkish soil. Turkish police reports also identify other Turkish nationals facilitating travel to ISIS-Somalia.
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Dutch-Turkish ISIS Convict Captured in Somalia After Rebuilding Jihadist Ties in Turkey
Hasan Rafet Atar, a Dutch-born Turkish national convicted in the Netherlands of preparing a terrorist attack and deported to Turkey in 2022, reconnected with ISIS while living in Turkey and traveled to Somalia, where he joined ISIS-Somalia. He was captured by Puntland forces in December 2024 carrying an AK-47 and is now imprisoned awaiting trial. The case raises questions about Turkish counterterrorism enforcement, as Atar was known to authorities and was able to establish contact with an ISIS recruiter and arrange travel to Somalia from Turkish soil. Turkish police reports also identify other Turkish nationals facilitating travel to ISIS-Somalia.
Hasan Rafet Atar, a Dutch-born Turkish national convicted in the Netherlands of preparing a terrorist attack and deported to Turkey in 2022, reconnected with ISIS while living in Turkey and traveled to Somalia, where he joined ISIS-Somalia. He was captured by Puntland forces in December 2024 carrying an AK-47 and is now imprisoned awaiting trial. The case raises questions about Turkish counterterrorism enforcement, as Atar was known to authorities and was able to establish contact with an ISIS recruiter and arrange travel to Somalia from Turkish soil. Turkish police reports also identify other Turkish nationals facilitating travel to ISIS-Somalia.
tr38Turkey Expands Wildfire Probe to 64 Fires, 43 Suspects Identified
Turkey's Justice Ministry has widened its investigation into forest fires, now covering 64 fires across 22 provinces since June 1, with 43 suspects identified. Of these, 11 have been arrested, 18 placed under judicial control, and three remain in custody. The update, announced by Justice Minister Akın Gürlek on August 16, follows a week that saw 10 new fires in eight provinces, including Antalya, Aydın, Kocaeli, and Sinop, prompting action against six suspects: two arrests, one judicial control, and three ongoing detention procedures. The government continues to pursue both deliberate arson and negligence, emphasizing accountability for threats to Turkey's forests, with Gürlek reiterating that no fire with criminal suspicion will remain unsolved.
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Turkey Expands Wildfire Probe to 64 Fires, 43 Suspects Identified
Turkey's Justice Ministry has widened its investigation into forest fires, now covering 64 fires across 22 provinces since June 1, with 43 suspects identified. Of these, 11 have been arrested, 18 placed under judicial control, and three remain in custody. The update, announced by Justice Minister Akın Gürlek on August 16, follows a week that saw 10 new fires in eight provinces, including Antalya, Aydın, Kocaeli, and Sinop, prompting action against six suspects: two arrests, one judicial control, and three ongoing detention procedures. The government continues to pursue both deliberate arson and negligence, emphasizing accountability for threats to Turkey's forests, with Gürlek reiterating that no fire with criminal suspicion will remain unsolved.
Turkey's Justice Ministry has widened its investigation into forest fires, now covering 64 fires across 22 provinces since June 1, with 43 suspects identified. Of these, 11 have been arrested, 18 placed under judicial control, and three remain in custody. The update, announced by Justice Minister Akın Gürlek on August 16, follows a week that saw 10 new fires in eight provinces, including Antalya, Aydın, Kocaeli, and Sinop, prompting action against six suspects: two arrests, one judicial control, and three ongoing detention procedures. The government continues to pursue both deliberate arson and negligence, emphasizing accountability for threats to Turkey's forests, with Gürlek reiterating that no fire with criminal suspicion will remain unsolved.
tr35Turkey reports record domestic oil and gas output, expands overseas operations
Background: Turkey has been expanding its energy footprint both domestically and internationally, with TPAO acquiring stakes in Kirkuk fields, drilling off Somalia, and signing agreements in Libya and other countries. Today, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced that domestic oil production reached 23.1 million barrels and natural gas production exceeded 1.6 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2026, driven by the Gabar oil field and Sakarya Gas Field. He also highlighted ongoing overseas activities, including drilling in Somalia, licenses in Libya, and a new partnership in five Kirkuk oil fields in Iraq, as part of Turkey's goal of 'Fully Independent Türkiye in Energy.' In the first half of 2026, Gabar field contributed 60% of domestic oil production, and Sakarya Gas Field accounted for 92% of natural gas output. Bayraktar stated that natural gas production in the Black Sea will double this year. He also confirmed drilling in Somalia, licenses for two fields in Libya (one offshore, one onshore), and a new partnership in five Kirkuk oil fields in Iraq estimated to hold 3 billion barrels of reserves.
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Turkey reports record domestic oil and gas output, expands overseas operations
Background: Turkey has been expanding its energy footprint both domestically and internationally, with TPAO acquiring stakes in Kirkuk fields, drilling off Somalia, and signing agreements in Libya and other countries. Today, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced that domestic oil production reached 23.1 million barrels and natural gas production exceeded 1.6 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2026, driven by the Gabar oil field and Sakarya Gas Field. He also highlighted ongoing overseas activities, including drilling in Somalia, licenses in Libya, and a new partnership in five Kirkuk oil fields in Iraq, as part of Turkey's goal of 'Fully Independent Türkiye in Energy.' In the first half of 2026, Gabar field contributed 60% of domestic oil production, and Sakarya Gas Field accounted for 92% of natural gas output. Bayraktar stated that natural gas production in the Black Sea will double this year. He also confirmed drilling in Somalia, licenses for two fields in Libya (one offshore, one onshore), and a new partnership in five Kirkuk oil fields in Iraq estimated to hold 3 billion barrels of reserves.
Background: Turkey has been expanding its energy footprint both domestically and internationally, with TPAO acquiring stakes in Kirkuk fields, drilling off Somalia, and signing agreements in Libya and other countries. Today, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced that domestic oil production reached 23.1 million barrels and natural gas production exceeded 1.6 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2026, driven by the Gabar oil field and Sakarya Gas Field. He also highlighted ongoing overseas activities, including drilling in Somalia, licenses in Libya, and a new partnership in five Kirkuk oil fields in Iraq, as part of Turkey's goal of 'Fully Independent Türkiye in Energy.' In the first half of 2026, Gabar field contributed 60% of domestic oil production, and Sakarya Gas Field accounted for 92% of natural gas output. Bayraktar stated that natural gas production in the Black Sea will double this year. He also confirmed drilling in Somalia, licenses for two fields in Libya (one offshore, one onshore), and a new partnership in five Kirkuk oil fields in Iraq estimated to hold 3 billion barrels of reserves.
tr34Turkey designates two new marine parks in Aegean amid maritime dispute with Greece
Background: Turkey proposed a draft maritime jurisdiction law under the 'Blue Homeland' doctrine, codifying exclusive economic zones and granting presidential authority, reigniting the long-standing Aegean maritime dispute with Greece. Today: Turkey has officially designated two new national marine parks in the Aegean Sea via presidential decrees published in the Official Gazette on Sunday. One park is located between Fethiye (Muğla) and Kaş (Antalya) in the south, and the other in the North Aegean near Tekirdağ and Çanakkale. The move is seen as an assertion of maritime rights amid ongoing disputes with Greece, which has also announced plans for marine parks. Turkey frames the parks as biodiversity protection but signals broader geopolitical intent, including a planned 'Blue Homeland law' to codify maritime jurisdiction. Greek media report that Greece's planned marine park decree in the southern Aegean is now before a top court and will be finalized in October. Turkey's 'Blue Homeland law' is expected to be debated in Parliament when the next legislative term starts in October.
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Turkey designates two new marine parks in Aegean amid maritime dispute with Greece
Background: Turkey proposed a draft maritime jurisdiction law under the 'Blue Homeland' doctrine, codifying exclusive economic zones and granting presidential authority, reigniting the long-standing Aegean maritime dispute with Greece. Today: Turkey has officially designated two new national marine parks in the Aegean Sea via presidential decrees published in the Official Gazette on Sunday. One park is located between Fethiye (Muğla) and Kaş (Antalya) in the south, and the other in the North Aegean near Tekirdağ and Çanakkale. The move is seen as an assertion of maritime rights amid ongoing disputes with Greece, which has also announced plans for marine parks. Turkey frames the parks as biodiversity protection but signals broader geopolitical intent, including a planned 'Blue Homeland law' to codify maritime jurisdiction. Greek media report that Greece's planned marine park decree in the southern Aegean is now before a top court and will be finalized in October. Turkey's 'Blue Homeland law' is expected to be debated in Parliament when the next legislative term starts in October.
Background: Turkey proposed a draft maritime jurisdiction law under the 'Blue Homeland' doctrine, codifying exclusive economic zones and granting presidential authority, reigniting the long-standing Aegean maritime dispute with Greece. Today: Turkey has officially designated two new national marine parks in the Aegean Sea via presidential decrees published in the Official Gazette on Sunday. One park is located between Fethiye (Muğla) and Kaş (Antalya) in the south, and the other in the North Aegean near Tekirdağ and Çanakkale. The move is seen as an assertion of maritime rights amid ongoing disputes with Greece, which has also announced plans for marine parks. Turkey frames the parks as biodiversity protection but signals broader geopolitical intent, including a planned 'Blue Homeland law' to codify maritime jurisdiction. Greek media report that Greece's planned marine park decree in the southern Aegean is now before a top court and will be finalized in October. Turkey's 'Blue Homeland law' is expected to be debated in Parliament when the next legislative term starts in October.
tr33Bayraktar Kızılelma demonstrates internal weapons capability, boosting stealth and export prospects
Background: Baykar plans to begin serial deliveries of its Bayraktar Kızılelma UCAV in 2026, with an export contract for 12 units to Indonesia. Today: In August 2026, Kızılelma successfully fired smart munitions from its internal weapon bay, striking ground targets. This capability reduces radar and thermal signatures, enhancing stealth and strategic value. The tests included Roketsan Teber-82 and Aselsan Sadak 4T multi-munition pods, allowing up to eight Tolun munitions to be launched internally. Kızılelma remains the only UCAV with such advanced features, including AESA radar, IRST, and EOTS. The export to Indonesia is confirmed, with deliveries expected in 2028.
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Bayraktar Kızılelma demonstrates internal weapons capability, boosting stealth and export prospects
Background: Baykar plans to begin serial deliveries of its Bayraktar Kızılelma UCAV in 2026, with an export contract for 12 units to Indonesia. Today: In August 2026, Kızılelma successfully fired smart munitions from its internal weapon bay, striking ground targets. This capability reduces radar and thermal signatures, enhancing stealth and strategic value. The tests included Roketsan Teber-82 and Aselsan Sadak 4T multi-munition pods, allowing up to eight Tolun munitions to be launched internally. Kızılelma remains the only UCAV with such advanced features, including AESA radar, IRST, and EOTS. The export to Indonesia is confirmed, with deliveries expected in 2028.
Background: Baykar plans to begin serial deliveries of its Bayraktar Kızılelma UCAV in 2026, with an export contract for 12 units to Indonesia. Today: In August 2026, Kızılelma successfully fired smart munitions from its internal weapon bay, striking ground targets. This capability reduces radar and thermal signatures, enhancing stealth and strategic value. The tests included Roketsan Teber-82 and Aselsan Sadak 4T multi-munition pods, allowing up to eight Tolun munitions to be launched internally. Kızılelma remains the only UCAV with such advanced features, including AESA radar, IRST, and EOTS. The export to Indonesia is confirmed, with deliveries expected in 2028.
tr30Turkey and Saudi Arabia to expand renewable energy cooperation to 5,000 MW at COP31
Background: Turkey and Saudi Arabia had previously signed a renewable energy agreement with extensive investor incentives, including a 30-year euro-denominated power purchase agreement. Today: At COP31 in Antalya, Turkey's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced an additional 3,000 MW renewable energy agreement with Saudi Arabia, bringing total planned capacity to 5,000 MW. He also detailed Turkey's energy progress, including quadrupled installed capacity, increased domestic production, and regional energy security opportunities amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Further details from the event: Turkey's installed electricity capacity has quadrupled to 126,000 MW, oil production tripled, natural gas production increased ninefold, and mineral exports rose tenfold. Domestic Black Sea gas output is set to double this year and quadruple by 2028, aiming to supply 17 million households. Gabar oil field output exceeds 83,000 bpd, with unconventional exploration in Diyarbakır potentially yielding two to three times more. Bayraktar discussed regional energy security opportunities from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, including Iraqi oil via Ceyhan, Qatari gas routes through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq, and Kuwaiti oil options. Turkey is also pursuing oil and gas exploration in Pakistan, with the Oruç Reis vessel heading there in September or October.
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Turkey and Saudi Arabia to expand renewable energy cooperation to 5,000 MW at COP31
Background: Turkey and Saudi Arabia had previously signed a renewable energy agreement with extensive investor incentives, including a 30-year euro-denominated power purchase agreement. Today: At COP31 in Antalya, Turkey's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced an additional 3,000 MW renewable energy agreement with Saudi Arabia, bringing total planned capacity to 5,000 MW. He also detailed Turkey's energy progress, including quadrupled installed capacity, increased domestic production, and regional energy security opportunities amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Further details from the event: Turkey's installed electricity capacity has quadrupled to 126,000 MW, oil production tripled, natural gas production increased ninefold, and mineral exports rose tenfold. Domestic Black Sea gas output is set to double this year and quadruple by 2028, aiming to supply 17 million households. Gabar oil field output exceeds 83,000 bpd, with unconventional exploration in Diyarbakır potentially yielding two to three times more. Bayraktar discussed regional energy security opportunities from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, including Iraqi oil via Ceyhan, Qatari gas routes through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq, and Kuwaiti oil options. Turkey is also pursuing oil and gas exploration in Pakistan, with the Oruç Reis vessel heading there in September or October.
Background: Turkey and Saudi Arabia had previously signed a renewable energy agreement with extensive investor incentives, including a 30-year euro-denominated power purchase agreement. Today: At COP31 in Antalya, Turkey's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced an additional 3,000 MW renewable energy agreement with Saudi Arabia, bringing total planned capacity to 5,000 MW. He also detailed Turkey's energy progress, including quadrupled installed capacity, increased domestic production, and regional energy security opportunities amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Further details from the event: Turkey's installed electricity capacity has quadrupled to 126,000 MW, oil production tripled, natural gas production increased ninefold, and mineral exports rose tenfold. Domestic Black Sea gas output is set to double this year and quadruple by 2028, aiming to supply 17 million households. Gabar oil field output exceeds 83,000 bpd, with unconventional exploration in Diyarbakır potentially yielding two to three times more. Bayraktar discussed regional energy security opportunities from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, including Iraqi oil via Ceyhan, Qatari gas routes through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq, and Kuwaiti oil options. Turkey is also pursuing oil and gas exploration in Pakistan, with the Oruç Reis vessel heading there in September or October.