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Today 17 August Briefing Read full brief

Turkey is opening its alliances and closing its politics

Ankara invited Egypt toward a new defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan while transferring surveillance and censorship powers to an agency under the presidency. The opposition splintered around the imprisoned Ekrem İmamoğlu and a new Kurdish initiative advanced, giving Erdoğan more regional options and more domestic control at the same time.

Key Indicators
Full catalog · 18

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28 key official events ahead
September 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Q2 2026 GDP release

Second-quarter gross domestic product print, the headline growth reading. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly two months after the quarter ends; the Q2 release lands around 1 September.

Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (August data)

Monthly CPI print for August. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (September)

Eighth scheduled 2026 MPC meeting (counting from January). Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.

October 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (September data)

Monthly CPI print for September; the 3rd falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (October)

Penultimate 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.

November 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (October data)

Monthly CPI print for October. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2026-IV

Final quarterly Inflation Report of 2026, presented at a Governor's briefing. Sets out the bank's updated inflation forecasts heading into 2027.

Statistics
TÜİK Labour Force Statistics release (October data)

Monthly unemployment and employment data for October, released in the mid-month window (15th falls on a weekend, shifting to the next working day) at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Financial Stability Report (November)

Second of the CBRT's two semi-annual Financial Stability Reports for 2026, assessing risks in the banking system, credit, FX and external balances.

December 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (November data)

Monthly CPI print for November. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (December)

Final 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time; the last rate-setting decision of the year.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy text for 2027

Annual monetary-policy framework document for the coming year, which also publishes the full 2027 schedule of MPC meeting and report dates. Sets out the inflation target and policy approach for 2027.

Statistics
TÜİK Q3 2026 GDP release

Third-quarter gross domestic product print. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly 80 days after the quarter ends; the Q3 release lands in late December. (provisional date pending TÜİK release calendar)

January 2027
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (December data)

Monthly CPI print for December and the full-year 2026 inflation figure; 3 January falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (January)

First MPC decision of 2027, now listed in the CBRT's official meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (January)

First MPC meeting of 2027, expected in the fourth week of January in line with the CBRT's usual cadence. (provisional date; the official 2027 schedule is published with the December 2026 monetary-policy text)

February 2027
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (January 2027 data)

Monthly CPI print for January 2027. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time. (provisional; based on TÜİK's standard ~3rd-of-month cadence)

Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2027-I

First quarterly Inflation Report of 2027, presented at a Governor's briefing with updated inflation forecasts. (provisional date; the 2026-I report was published on 12 February 2026 and the exact 2027 date is confirmed with the December 2026 schedule)

March 2027
Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest-rate decision (March)

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT publishes summary of the March MPC meeting

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

April 2027
Election
Turkish constitutional referendum (potential)

AKP signals a possible referendum on a new constitution, linked to the renewed Kurdish peace process and a potential reset of presidential term limits. Targeted for autumn 2026 or, more likely, spring 2027. (provisional; no official date called, exact date is speculative)

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest-rate decision (April)

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT publishes summary of the April MPC meeting

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

May 2027
Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2027-II

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT Financial Stability Report (May 2027)

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

June 2027
Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest-rate decision (June)

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

Central Bank
CBRT publishes summary of the June MPC meeting

Official CBRT 2027 meetings and reports calendar.

July 2027
Parliament
TBMM summer recess begins under the standard timetable

The Assembly's standard timetable begins the summer recess on 1 July, subject to a TBMM decision to continue sitting. (provisional; the Assembly can alter the recess timetable)

Turkey

Recent events

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Süleymancılar leader Alihan Kuriş remanded in custody; gold and cash seized in raids

Background: Turkish authorities had detained Alihan Kuriş, leader of the Süleymancılar religious community, and 29 others in a nationwide operation on charges of running a criminal organization, money laundering, tax evasion, and fraud, with allegations of over $2.4 billion transferred abroad. Today: On August 16, 2026, Kuriş and 31 others were formally remanded in custody. Police raids uncovered large amounts of cash and jewelry at Kuriş's residence, and 200 kilograms of gold nuggets of unknown origin at a property owned by his brother Hilmi Tuna Kuriş, who remains at large. Documents were found being destroyed during a search in Istanbul's Ümraniye district. FETÖ members have publicly supported Kuriş, claiming the government is targeting a religious movement.

Show summary

Background: Turkish authorities had detained Alihan Kuriş, leader of the Süleymancılar religious community, and 29 others in a nationwide operation on charges of running a criminal organization, money laundering, tax evasion, and fraud, with allegations of over $2.4 billion transferred abroad. Today: On August 16, 2026, Kuriş and 31 others were formally remanded in custody. Police raids uncovered large amounts of cash and jewelry at Kuriş's residence, and 200 kilograms of gold nuggets of unknown origin at a property owned by his brother Hilmi Tuna Kuriş, who remains at large. Documents were found being destroyed during a search in Istanbul's Ümraniye district. FETÖ members have publicly supported Kuriş, claiming the government is targeting a religious movement.

tr41

Erdogan in Al Jazeera interview: Hamas sincere, Israel aggressive on Gaza and Lebanon

In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Hamas has shown sincere solidarity, while criticizing Israel's military actions in Gaza and Lebanon as aggressive. He expressed serious concern over Israeli attacks on Lebanon, noting Ankara's unease over regional instability. Erdogan also mentioned that US President Trump is concerned about the situation and that Turkey will continue to warn against further escalation.

Show summary

In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Hamas has shown sincere solidarity, while criticizing Israel's military actions in Gaza and Lebanon as aggressive. He expressed serious concern over Israeli attacks on Lebanon, noting Ankara's unease over regional instability. Erdogan also mentioned that US President Trump is concerned about the situation and that Turkey will continue to warn against further escalation.

tr39

Dutch-Turkish ISIS Convict Captured in Somalia After Rebuilding Jihadist Ties in Turkey

Hasan Rafet Atar, a Dutch-born Turkish national convicted in the Netherlands of preparing a terrorist attack and deported to Turkey in 2022, reconnected with ISIS while living in Turkey and traveled to Somalia, where he joined ISIS-Somalia. He was captured by Puntland forces in December 2024 carrying an AK-47 and is now imprisoned awaiting trial. The case raises questions about Turkish counterterrorism enforcement, as Atar was known to authorities and was able to establish contact with an ISIS recruiter and arrange travel to Somalia from Turkish soil. Turkish police reports also identify other Turkish nationals facilitating travel to ISIS-Somalia.

Show summary

Hasan Rafet Atar, a Dutch-born Turkish national convicted in the Netherlands of preparing a terrorist attack and deported to Turkey in 2022, reconnected with ISIS while living in Turkey and traveled to Somalia, where he joined ISIS-Somalia. He was captured by Puntland forces in December 2024 carrying an AK-47 and is now imprisoned awaiting trial. The case raises questions about Turkish counterterrorism enforcement, as Atar was known to authorities and was able to establish contact with an ISIS recruiter and arrange travel to Somalia from Turkish soil. Turkish police reports also identify other Turkish nationals facilitating travel to ISIS-Somalia.

tr38

Turkey Expands Wildfire Probe to 64 Fires, 43 Suspects Identified

Turkey's Justice Ministry has widened its investigation into forest fires, now covering 64 fires across 22 provinces since June 1, with 43 suspects identified. Of these, 11 have been arrested, 18 placed under judicial control, and three remain in custody. The update, announced by Justice Minister Akın Gürlek on August 16, follows a week that saw 10 new fires in eight provinces, including Antalya, Aydın, Kocaeli, and Sinop, prompting action against six suspects: two arrests, one judicial control, and three ongoing detention procedures. The government continues to pursue both deliberate arson and negligence, emphasizing accountability for threats to Turkey's forests, with Gürlek reiterating that no fire with criminal suspicion will remain unsolved.

Show summary

Turkey's Justice Ministry has widened its investigation into forest fires, now covering 64 fires across 22 provinces since June 1, with 43 suspects identified. Of these, 11 have been arrested, 18 placed under judicial control, and three remain in custody. The update, announced by Justice Minister Akın Gürlek on August 16, follows a week that saw 10 new fires in eight provinces, including Antalya, Aydın, Kocaeli, and Sinop, prompting action against six suspects: two arrests, one judicial control, and three ongoing detention procedures. The government continues to pursue both deliberate arson and negligence, emphasizing accountability for threats to Turkey's forests, with Gürlek reiterating that no fire with criminal suspicion will remain unsolved.

tr35

Turkey reports record domestic oil and gas output, expands overseas operations

Background: Turkey has been expanding its energy footprint both domestically and internationally, with TPAO acquiring stakes in Kirkuk fields, drilling off Somalia, and signing agreements in Libya and other countries. Today, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced that domestic oil production reached 23.1 million barrels and natural gas production exceeded 1.6 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2026, driven by the Gabar oil field and Sakarya Gas Field. He also highlighted ongoing overseas activities, including drilling in Somalia, licenses in Libya, and a new partnership in five Kirkuk oil fields in Iraq, as part of Turkey's goal of 'Fully Independent Türkiye in Energy.' In the first half of 2026, Gabar field contributed 60% of domestic oil production, and Sakarya Gas Field accounted for 92% of natural gas output. Bayraktar stated that natural gas production in the Black Sea will double this year. He also confirmed drilling in Somalia, licenses for two fields in Libya (one offshore, one onshore), and a new partnership in five Kirkuk oil fields in Iraq estimated to hold 3 billion barrels of reserves.

Show summary

Background: Turkey has been expanding its energy footprint both domestically and internationally, with TPAO acquiring stakes in Kirkuk fields, drilling off Somalia, and signing agreements in Libya and other countries. Today, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced that domestic oil production reached 23.1 million barrels and natural gas production exceeded 1.6 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2026, driven by the Gabar oil field and Sakarya Gas Field. He also highlighted ongoing overseas activities, including drilling in Somalia, licenses in Libya, and a new partnership in five Kirkuk oil fields in Iraq, as part of Turkey's goal of 'Fully Independent Türkiye in Energy.' In the first half of 2026, Gabar field contributed 60% of domestic oil production, and Sakarya Gas Field accounted for 92% of natural gas output. Bayraktar stated that natural gas production in the Black Sea will double this year. He also confirmed drilling in Somalia, licenses for two fields in Libya (one offshore, one onshore), and a new partnership in five Kirkuk oil fields in Iraq estimated to hold 3 billion barrels of reserves.

tr34

Turkey designates two new marine parks in Aegean amid maritime dispute with Greece

Background: Turkey proposed a draft maritime jurisdiction law under the 'Blue Homeland' doctrine, codifying exclusive economic zones and granting presidential authority, reigniting the long-standing Aegean maritime dispute with Greece. Today: Turkey has officially designated two new national marine parks in the Aegean Sea via presidential decrees published in the Official Gazette on Sunday. One park is located between Fethiye (Muğla) and Kaş (Antalya) in the south, and the other in the North Aegean near Tekirdağ and Çanakkale. The move is seen as an assertion of maritime rights amid ongoing disputes with Greece, which has also announced plans for marine parks. Turkey frames the parks as biodiversity protection but signals broader geopolitical intent, including a planned 'Blue Homeland law' to codify maritime jurisdiction. Greek media report that Greece's planned marine park decree in the southern Aegean is now before a top court and will be finalized in October. Turkey's 'Blue Homeland law' is expected to be debated in Parliament when the next legislative term starts in October.

Show summary

Background: Turkey proposed a draft maritime jurisdiction law under the 'Blue Homeland' doctrine, codifying exclusive economic zones and granting presidential authority, reigniting the long-standing Aegean maritime dispute with Greece. Today: Turkey has officially designated two new national marine parks in the Aegean Sea via presidential decrees published in the Official Gazette on Sunday. One park is located between Fethiye (Muğla) and Kaş (Antalya) in the south, and the other in the North Aegean near Tekirdağ and Çanakkale. The move is seen as an assertion of maritime rights amid ongoing disputes with Greece, which has also announced plans for marine parks. Turkey frames the parks as biodiversity protection but signals broader geopolitical intent, including a planned 'Blue Homeland law' to codify maritime jurisdiction. Greek media report that Greece's planned marine park decree in the southern Aegean is now before a top court and will be finalized in October. Turkey's 'Blue Homeland law' is expected to be debated in Parliament when the next legislative term starts in October.

tr33

Bayraktar Kızılelma demonstrates internal weapons capability, boosting stealth and export prospects

Background: Baykar plans to begin serial deliveries of its Bayraktar Kızılelma UCAV in 2026, with an export contract for 12 units to Indonesia. Today: In August 2026, Kızılelma successfully fired smart munitions from its internal weapon bay, striking ground targets. This capability reduces radar and thermal signatures, enhancing stealth and strategic value. The tests included Roketsan Teber-82 and Aselsan Sadak 4T multi-munition pods, allowing up to eight Tolun munitions to be launched internally. Kızılelma remains the only UCAV with such advanced features, including AESA radar, IRST, and EOTS. The export to Indonesia is confirmed, with deliveries expected in 2028.

Show summary

Background: Baykar plans to begin serial deliveries of its Bayraktar Kızılelma UCAV in 2026, with an export contract for 12 units to Indonesia. Today: In August 2026, Kızılelma successfully fired smart munitions from its internal weapon bay, striking ground targets. This capability reduces radar and thermal signatures, enhancing stealth and strategic value. The tests included Roketsan Teber-82 and Aselsan Sadak 4T multi-munition pods, allowing up to eight Tolun munitions to be launched internally. Kızılelma remains the only UCAV with such advanced features, including AESA radar, IRST, and EOTS. The export to Indonesia is confirmed, with deliveries expected in 2028.

tr30

Turkey and Saudi Arabia to expand renewable energy cooperation to 5,000 MW at COP31

Background: Turkey and Saudi Arabia had previously signed a renewable energy agreement with extensive investor incentives, including a 30-year euro-denominated power purchase agreement. Today: At COP31 in Antalya, Turkey's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced an additional 3,000 MW renewable energy agreement with Saudi Arabia, bringing total planned capacity to 5,000 MW. He also detailed Turkey's energy progress, including quadrupled installed capacity, increased domestic production, and regional energy security opportunities amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Further details from the event: Turkey's installed electricity capacity has quadrupled to 126,000 MW, oil production tripled, natural gas production increased ninefold, and mineral exports rose tenfold. Domestic Black Sea gas output is set to double this year and quadruple by 2028, aiming to supply 17 million households. Gabar oil field output exceeds 83,000 bpd, with unconventional exploration in Diyarbakır potentially yielding two to three times more. Bayraktar discussed regional energy security opportunities from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, including Iraqi oil via Ceyhan, Qatari gas routes through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq, and Kuwaiti oil options. Turkey is also pursuing oil and gas exploration in Pakistan, with the Oruç Reis vessel heading there in September or October.

Show summary

Background: Turkey and Saudi Arabia had previously signed a renewable energy agreement with extensive investor incentives, including a 30-year euro-denominated power purchase agreement. Today: At COP31 in Antalya, Turkey's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced an additional 3,000 MW renewable energy agreement with Saudi Arabia, bringing total planned capacity to 5,000 MW. He also detailed Turkey's energy progress, including quadrupled installed capacity, increased domestic production, and regional energy security opportunities amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Further details from the event: Turkey's installed electricity capacity has quadrupled to 126,000 MW, oil production tripled, natural gas production increased ninefold, and mineral exports rose tenfold. Domestic Black Sea gas output is set to double this year and quadruple by 2028, aiming to supply 17 million households. Gabar oil field output exceeds 83,000 bpd, with unconventional exploration in Diyarbakır potentially yielding two to three times more. Bayraktar discussed regional energy security opportunities from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, including Iraqi oil via Ceyhan, Qatari gas routes through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq, and Kuwaiti oil options. Turkey is also pursuing oil and gas exploration in Pakistan, with the Oruç Reis vessel heading there in September or October.

Frequently Asked

5
What is the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement?
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement was signed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan on August 7. It formalizes longstanding ties and includes joint production, intelligence, and air defence cooperation.
What does Turkey's Law No. 7590 do?
Law No. 7590 transfers powers over wiretapping, internet restrictions, and communications infrastructure from the telecommunications regulator BTK to the Cyber Security Presidency, which reports directly to President Erdoğan.
Who is Ekrem İmamoğlu and why is he in detention?
Ekrem İmamoğlu is the imprisoned Istanbul mayor and Erdoğan's principal electoral rival. He is in pre-trial detention on charges he denies and recently left the CHP to join the New Party.
How did Turkey's Kurdish peace process advance?
President Erdoğan met with DEM Party representatives Pervin Buldan and Mithat Sancar for about 1 hour and 40 minutes, following parliament's passage of a law on national solidarity and social integration.
What is the Süleymancılar investigation about?
Authorities detained leader Alihan Kuriş and 29 others across 17 provinces over allegations including money laundering, tax evasion, and fraud, with more than 100 billion lira (about $2.4 billion) moved abroad.