Ukraine Strikes Deep Into Russia as Air Defense Gap Widens

Ukraine ended the week able to strike an oil refinery and a strategic-bomber base deep inside Russia, yet unable to stop most of the ballistic missiles aimed at its own capital. That is the central imbalance of the war now. Kyiv's domestically built long-range arsenal is expanding quickly; the Western-supplied shield above its cities is not.

Russia made the vulnerability explicit on August 1. It launched 35 missiles, including 27 ballistic weapons, and 185 drones at Kyiv and surrounding districts. At least nine people were killed and more than 30 wounded, including four children. Air defences intercepted only one ballistic missile. Homes, a school, the Lithuanian embassy and an ambulance depot were damaged, and five ambulances were destroyed. President Volodymyr Zelensky again asked partners for Patriot interceptors.

ACLED's assessment is blunt: Russia has increased its reliance on ballistic and Zircon missiles precisely to exploit the Patriot shortage. The organisation described a recent attack as probably the largest ballistic barrage on Kyiv since the full-scale invasion began. The trend is not a question of one empty launcher. Moscow is learning that it can concentrate weapons Ukraine cannot reliably stop, while the US-Iran war competes for the same interceptor inventories.

Ukraine's answer is to make Russian depth less safe. On August 2 it launched what Moscow said was a 635-drone attack, targeting the Saratov refinery, Engels airbase, a fuel depot in Kaluga and launch sites in Bryansk. Earlier in the week Ukrainian forces struck the Volgograd refinery, Yevpatoriia aircraft plant and Taman port; the Volgograd facility alone can process about 15 million tonnes of oil a year. Commander Robert Brovdi said Operation MoLoChKa had hit more than 200 vessels in Russia's shadow fleet since July 6 and helped block the Kerch Strait.

That campaign is not a substitute for air defence. Ukrainian drones killed civilians in Russia during the weekend attack, while Russian strikes killed civilians in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk. A Russian missile also crossed roughly 95 kilometres into Poland before crashing, forcing NATO aircraft into the air. The escalation is widening the geography of danger without giving either side the protection it seeks.

Europe is paying for future capacity. The EU disbursed EUR3.47 billion for Ukrainian drones, missiles, air defence and Gripen fighters, including a EUR2.5 billion contract for 16 aircraft. Britain separately committed EUR300 million toward a Gripen squadron, but the jets are due by 2029. Zelensky has discussed licences to make Patriot interceptors and technology exchanges with Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. Those projects could change the balance later; they do not stop a ballistic missile tonight.

The ground war makes delay costly. A Western official said Russia controlled about 80% of Kostiantynivka's urban centre, while the Institute for the Study of War has documented sustained Russian gains enabled by glide bombs and infiltration. Ukraine can damage the refineries, depots and bomber bases supporting that advance, but it still has to hold cities and protect civilians.

The next few weeks will test whether Ukraine's two campaigns can converge. Its long-range weapons must impose enough cost to disrupt Russian operations, while partners turn pledges into interceptor deliveries before Moscow normalises daily ballistic attacks. Kyiv has proved it can reach farther. Survival depends on whether its shield can catch up.