BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for August 2026, 8:30am ET, ahead of the mid-September Fed meeting.
America is turning alliances into bargaining chips
Washington tied a last-minute reduction in US-South Korea exercises to Seoul's refusal to support the Iran war, even as the Hormuz campaign strained American weapons and economic leverage. Water-system attacks and record financial leverage show the same problem at home: security commitments are being repriced faster than resilience can be rebuilt.
Upcoming
25 key official events aheadBLS Consumer Price Index for August 2026, 8:30am ET — last CPI print before the September Fed decision.
FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.
Third (final) estimate of Q2 2026 GDP plus corporate profits and state-level data, 8:30am ET.
BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for September 2026, 8:30am ET.
BLS Consumer Price Index for September 2026, 8:30am ET.
FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, followed by a 2:30pm Chair press conference. No new economic projections at this meeting.
First (advance) estimate of third-quarter 2026 real GDP growth from the BEA, 8:30am ET.
All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are contested (including Florida and Ohio special elections), alongside 36 governorships. Determines control of the 120th Congress.
BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for October 2026, 8:30am ET.
Second estimate of Q3 2026 GDP plus corporate profits, 8:30am ET.
BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for November 2026, 8:30am ET, ahead of the December Fed meeting.
Final FOMC meeting of 2026; policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.
United States hosts the G20 leaders' summit December 14–15 at Trump National Doral, Miami, capping the US G20 presidency year.
BLS Consumer Price Index for November 2026, 8:30am ET. Released later than the usual mid-month slot under the revised 2026 schedule.
Third (final) estimate of Q3 2026 GDP plus corporate profits and state-level data, 8:30am ET.
BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for December 2026, with annual benchmark revisions. (Provisional — exact 2027 monthly date not yet published by BLS.)
BLS Consumer Price Index for December 2026, completing the 2026 inflation picture. (Provisional — exact 2027 monthly date not yet published by BLS.)
First FOMC decision of 2027 (tentative schedule announced Sept 2025); policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.
First (advance) estimate of fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 GDP. (Provisional — exact 2027 date not yet published by BEA; date estimated from the usual late-January cadence.)
2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.
2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.
2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.
Official tentative 2027 FOMC schedule; statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.
Recent events
us48US-Iran MoU expires as both sides trade accusations and Trump threatens to claim Strait of Hormuz
Background: The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June is collapsing, with the US revoking oil licenses and conducting strikes, and Iran retaliating. Today: The MoU is set to expire on Monday with no sign of extension, as both sides accuse each other of violations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Saturday that no decision has been made to restart negotiations with the US. President Trump announced plans to formally claim the Strait of Hormuz as US territory, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened unprecedented measures against Iran. Iran is pursuing a separate agreement with Oman on new shipping routes in the strait, contingent on a political solution. The US has not fully lifted sanctions, and the Pentagon fired on a Panama-flagged cargo vessel for violating the blockade. Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf declared Iran victorious in the war, and the appointment of Mohsen Rezaei as head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council signals a tougher stance. Analysts note the US has depleted military resources and few economic levers left, while Iran can disrupt global oil traffic, warning of renewed conflict and oil disruption.
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US-Iran MoU expires as both sides trade accusations and Trump threatens to claim Strait of Hormuz
Background: The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June is collapsing, with the US revoking oil licenses and conducting strikes, and Iran retaliating. Today: The MoU is set to expire on Monday with no sign of extension, as both sides accuse each other of violations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Saturday that no decision has been made to restart negotiations with the US. President Trump announced plans to formally claim the Strait of Hormuz as US territory, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened unprecedented measures against Iran. Iran is pursuing a separate agreement with Oman on new shipping routes in the strait, contingent on a political solution. The US has not fully lifted sanctions, and the Pentagon fired on a Panama-flagged cargo vessel for violating the blockade. Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf declared Iran victorious in the war, and the appointment of Mohsen Rezaei as head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council signals a tougher stance. Analysts note the US has depleted military resources and few economic levers left, while Iran can disrupt global oil traffic, warning of renewed conflict and oil disruption.
Background: The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June is collapsing, with the US revoking oil licenses and conducting strikes, and Iran retaliating. Today: The MoU is set to expire on Monday with no sign of extension, as both sides accuse each other of violations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Saturday that no decision has been made to restart negotiations with the US. President Trump announced plans to formally claim the Strait of Hormuz as US territory, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened unprecedented measures against Iran. Iran is pursuing a separate agreement with Oman on new shipping routes in the strait, contingent on a political solution. The US has not fully lifted sanctions, and the Pentagon fired on a Panama-flagged cargo vessel for violating the blockade. Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf declared Iran victorious in the war, and the appointment of Mohsen Rezaei as head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council signals a tougher stance. Analysts note the US has depleted military resources and few economic levers left, while Iran can disrupt global oil traffic, warning of renewed conflict and oil disruption.
us45Iran Offers $30,000 Bounty for Killing or Capturing US Soldiers
Iran's military has announced a $30,000 bounty for killing or capturing US soldiers, doubled for women, amid ongoing conflict with the US. Army chief Amir Hatami stated the reward is for 'invading American military personnel' and reiterated Iran's demand for the US to leave the Middle East, including the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The announcement follows a war that began in February with US-Israeli attacks on Iran, a ceasefire in April, and sporadic fighting since, with no known US ground troops deployed in Iran except for a rescue mission in April.
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Iran Offers $30,000 Bounty for Killing or Capturing US Soldiers
Iran's military has announced a $30,000 bounty for killing or capturing US soldiers, doubled for women, amid ongoing conflict with the US. Army chief Amir Hatami stated the reward is for 'invading American military personnel' and reiterated Iran's demand for the US to leave the Middle East, including the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The announcement follows a war that began in February with US-Israeli attacks on Iran, a ceasefire in April, and sporadic fighting since, with no known US ground troops deployed in Iran except for a rescue mission in April.
Iran's military has announced a $30,000 bounty for killing or capturing US soldiers, doubled for women, amid ongoing conflict with the US. Army chief Amir Hatami stated the reward is for 'invading American military personnel' and reiterated Iran's demand for the US to leave the Middle East, including the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The announcement follows a war that began in February with US-Israeli attacks on Iran, a ceasefire in April, and sporadic fighting since, with no known US ground troops deployed in Iran except for a rescue mission in April.
us43Trump orders reduction of US-South Korea military drills citing ties with Kim Jong-un
US President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to substantially reduce the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield joint military exercises with South Korea, citing their cost and the 'hostile' signal they send to North Korea, with whom he claims a 'very good relationship.' The order came just before the drills were scheduled to begin on August 17, 2026, and followed a North Korean ballistic missile test and warnings from Pyongyang. Trump also linked the decision to South Korea's refusal to join US efforts to denuclearize Iran. South Korea's defense ministry stated the exercises would proceed as scheduled, while US and South Korean military officials had earlier highlighted the drills' importance in countering North Korean capabilities learned from the Ukraine war. The move raises concerns about the strength of the US-South Korea alliance and regional deterrence posture.
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Trump orders reduction of US-South Korea military drills citing ties with Kim Jong-un
US President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to substantially reduce the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield joint military exercises with South Korea, citing their cost and the 'hostile' signal they send to North Korea, with whom he claims a 'very good relationship.' The order came just before the drills were scheduled to begin on August 17, 2026, and followed a North Korean ballistic missile test and warnings from Pyongyang. Trump also linked the decision to South Korea's refusal to join US efforts to denuclearize Iran. South Korea's defense ministry stated the exercises would proceed as scheduled, while US and South Korean military officials had earlier highlighted the drills' importance in countering North Korean capabilities learned from the Ukraine war. The move raises concerns about the strength of the US-South Korea alliance and regional deterrence posture.
US President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to substantially reduce the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield joint military exercises with South Korea, citing their cost and the 'hostile' signal they send to North Korea, with whom he claims a 'very good relationship.' The order came just before the drills were scheduled to begin on August 17, 2026, and followed a North Korean ballistic missile test and warnings from Pyongyang. Trump also linked the decision to South Korea's refusal to join US efforts to denuclearize Iran. South Korea's defense ministry stated the exercises would proceed as scheduled, while US and South Korean military officials had earlier highlighted the drills' importance in countering North Korean capabilities learned from the Ukraine war. The move raises concerns about the strength of the US-South Korea alliance and regional deterrence posture.
us41Trump Orders Reduction in US-South Korea Military Drills, Citing Kim Jong Un Ties
US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he has instructed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to substantially reduce planned joint military exercises with South Korea, citing their cost and his personal relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Trump stated on Truth Social that the drills send an inappropriate and hostile signal to Pyongyang, marking a significant shift in US-South Korea military cooperation and raising concerns about regional security dynamics.
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Trump Orders Reduction in US-South Korea Military Drills, Citing Kim Jong Un Ties
US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he has instructed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to substantially reduce planned joint military exercises with South Korea, citing their cost and his personal relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Trump stated on Truth Social that the drills send an inappropriate and hostile signal to Pyongyang, marking a significant shift in US-South Korea military cooperation and raising concerns about regional security dynamics.
US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he has instructed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to substantially reduce planned joint military exercises with South Korea, citing their cost and his personal relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Trump stated on Truth Social that the drills send an inappropriate and hostile signal to Pyongyang, marking a significant shift in US-South Korea military cooperation and raising concerns about regional security dynamics.
us39IRGC official warns of 'strategic surprises' as Iran shifts to offensive stance
Background: In June 2026, IRGC Brigadier General MohammadJafar Asadi warned that Iran has undisclosed military capabilities and is prepared for direct confrontation with the US and NATO, as nuclear negotiations stalled. On 17 August 2026, senior IRGC commander Yadollah Javani escalated the rhetoric, stating that Iran is transitioning from a defensive to an offensive posture and that adversaries must anticipate 'strategic surprises.' He asserted that the enemy cannot catch Iran off-guard and that all necessary actions to defend the country and neutralize threats will be executed at the appropriate time. This signals heightened military readiness and a more assertive Iranian stance amid ongoing regional tensions and stalled diplomacy.
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IRGC official warns of 'strategic surprises' as Iran shifts to offensive stance
Background: In June 2026, IRGC Brigadier General MohammadJafar Asadi warned that Iran has undisclosed military capabilities and is prepared for direct confrontation with the US and NATO, as nuclear negotiations stalled. On 17 August 2026, senior IRGC commander Yadollah Javani escalated the rhetoric, stating that Iran is transitioning from a defensive to an offensive posture and that adversaries must anticipate 'strategic surprises.' He asserted that the enemy cannot catch Iran off-guard and that all necessary actions to defend the country and neutralize threats will be executed at the appropriate time. This signals heightened military readiness and a more assertive Iranian stance amid ongoing regional tensions and stalled diplomacy.
Background: In June 2026, IRGC Brigadier General MohammadJafar Asadi warned that Iran has undisclosed military capabilities and is prepared for direct confrontation with the US and NATO, as nuclear negotiations stalled. On 17 August 2026, senior IRGC commander Yadollah Javani escalated the rhetoric, stating that Iran is transitioning from a defensive to an offensive posture and that adversaries must anticipate 'strategic surprises.' He asserted that the enemy cannot catch Iran off-guard and that all necessary actions to defend the country and neutralize threats will be executed at the appropriate time. This signals heightened military readiness and a more assertive Iranian stance amid ongoing regional tensions and stalled diplomacy.
us38Gulf allies question US ties over Iran conflict as frustration grows
Background: The Iran war has exposed US military vulnerabilities and strained Gulf alliances, prompting Gulf states to reassess security partnerships. Today: Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, are increasingly questioning the US military presence and expressing frustration with President Trump's unpredictable diplomacy. Anger toward Washington has peaked since the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, with the region paying the price for a war initiated by the US administration. A new mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signals diversification of security ties. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial traffic amid a US blockade, with Trump claiming it as US territory, while Iran's foreign minister rules out resuming negotiations with Washington, citing violations of the Islamabad Memorandum. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that technical talks with Oman on temporary maritime routes are separate from reopening the strait.
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Gulf allies question US ties over Iran conflict as frustration grows
Background: The Iran war has exposed US military vulnerabilities and strained Gulf alliances, prompting Gulf states to reassess security partnerships. Today: Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, are increasingly questioning the US military presence and expressing frustration with President Trump's unpredictable diplomacy. Anger toward Washington has peaked since the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, with the region paying the price for a war initiated by the US administration. A new mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signals diversification of security ties. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial traffic amid a US blockade, with Trump claiming it as US territory, while Iran's foreign minister rules out resuming negotiations with Washington, citing violations of the Islamabad Memorandum. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that technical talks with Oman on temporary maritime routes are separate from reopening the strait.
Background: The Iran war has exposed US military vulnerabilities and strained Gulf alliances, prompting Gulf states to reassess security partnerships. Today: Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, are increasingly questioning the US military presence and expressing frustration with President Trump's unpredictable diplomacy. Anger toward Washington has peaked since the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, with the region paying the price for a war initiated by the US administration. A new mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signals diversification of security ties. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial traffic amid a US blockade, with Trump claiming it as US territory, while Iran's foreign minister rules out resuming negotiations with Washington, citing violations of the Islamabad Memorandum. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that technical talks with Oman on temporary maritime routes are separate from reopening the strait.
us35Attorney General Blanche says Trump's views can factor into prosecutions
Background: Todd Blanche, Trump's former lawyer, was confirmed as Attorney General amid Democratic concerns about political retaliation. In his first week, Blanche refused to pledge DOJ independence from the White House, stating on NBC's 'Meet the Press' that President Trump's views can factor into individual prosecution decisions. He affirmed that Trump should have a voice in such decisions, while claiming Trump would expect him to say no when they disagree legally. Blanche also addressed the rescinded $1.776 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund, not ruling out Jan. 6 defendants receiving money through the government's claims process. His comments follow Trump's public calls for prosecutions of rivals and his remaking of the DOJ, including installing Blanche and directing U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro to revisit a vandalism case.
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Attorney General Blanche says Trump's views can factor into prosecutions
Background: Todd Blanche, Trump's former lawyer, was confirmed as Attorney General amid Democratic concerns about political retaliation. In his first week, Blanche refused to pledge DOJ independence from the White House, stating on NBC's 'Meet the Press' that President Trump's views can factor into individual prosecution decisions. He affirmed that Trump should have a voice in such decisions, while claiming Trump would expect him to say no when they disagree legally. Blanche also addressed the rescinded $1.776 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund, not ruling out Jan. 6 defendants receiving money through the government's claims process. His comments follow Trump's public calls for prosecutions of rivals and his remaking of the DOJ, including installing Blanche and directing U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro to revisit a vandalism case.
Background: Todd Blanche, Trump's former lawyer, was confirmed as Attorney General amid Democratic concerns about political retaliation. In his first week, Blanche refused to pledge DOJ independence from the White House, stating on NBC's 'Meet the Press' that President Trump's views can factor into individual prosecution decisions. He affirmed that Trump should have a voice in such decisions, while claiming Trump would expect him to say no when they disagree legally. Blanche also addressed the rescinded $1.776 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund, not ruling out Jan. 6 defendants receiving money through the government's claims process. His comments follow Trump's public calls for prosecutions of rivals and his remaking of the DOJ, including installing Blanche and directing U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro to revisit a vandalism case.
us33Mossad in turmoil after failed Iran destabilization plan leads to dismissals
Background: Israel's Mossad chief, Roman Gofman, fired two senior officials over a failed covert plan to topple Iran's government. Today: The dismissals have triggered a major controversy in Israel, with revelations that the plan involved fomenting a Kurdish uprising and striking Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions along the Iraq-Iran border, and was vetoed by US President Donald Trump, causing internal turmoil. The dismissals have triggered a major public controversy in Israel, with a wave of media revelations breaching the Mossad's secrecy. The failed plan specifically involved fomenting a Kurdish uprising in Iran and striking Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions along the Iraq-Iran border. The operation was reportedly vetoed by US President Donald Trump, leading to internal fallout and the subsequent firing of the two officials.
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Mossad in turmoil after failed Iran destabilization plan leads to dismissals
Background: Israel's Mossad chief, Roman Gofman, fired two senior officials over a failed covert plan to topple Iran's government. Today: The dismissals have triggered a major controversy in Israel, with revelations that the plan involved fomenting a Kurdish uprising and striking Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions along the Iraq-Iran border, and was vetoed by US President Donald Trump, causing internal turmoil. The dismissals have triggered a major public controversy in Israel, with a wave of media revelations breaching the Mossad's secrecy. The failed plan specifically involved fomenting a Kurdish uprising in Iran and striking Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions along the Iraq-Iran border. The operation was reportedly vetoed by US President Donald Trump, leading to internal fallout and the subsequent firing of the two officials.
Background: Israel's Mossad chief, Roman Gofman, fired two senior officials over a failed covert plan to topple Iran's government. Today: The dismissals have triggered a major controversy in Israel, with revelations that the plan involved fomenting a Kurdish uprising and striking Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions along the Iraq-Iran border, and was vetoed by US President Donald Trump, causing internal turmoil. The dismissals have triggered a major public controversy in Israel, with a wave of media revelations breaching the Mossad's secrecy. The failed plan specifically involved fomenting a Kurdish uprising in Iran and striking Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions along the Iraq-Iran border. The operation was reportedly vetoed by US President Donald Trump, leading to internal fallout and the subsequent firing of the two officials.