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US July jobs report shows first payroll decline since February, complicating Fed rate path

Background: The US labor market had shown signs of weakening in June 2026, with payrolls rising by only 57,000 and a sharp drop in labor force participation. Today's new development: The July jobs report revealed a loss of 23,000 jobs, the first negative month since February, with significant downward revisions to prior months. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% as nearly 1 million people left the labor force over two months. This weakens the case for a Fed rate hike in September, though inflation data remains the key factor. The July report also showed that downward revisions wiped out more than 100,000 payrolls from May and June, bringing the three-month average of monthly job gains to just 20,000. The labor force shrank by 264,000 in July, following a 720,000 drop in June, totaling nearly 1 million people leaving the labor force in two months. The headline decline was distorted by a 50,000 drop in local government education, but leisure and hospitality shed another 40,000 jobs, and financial sector employment fell by 14,000. Health care added only 22,000 jobs, below its average. Following the release, market-based odds of a September Fed rate hike fell from 55% to 44%.

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Background: The US labor market had shown signs of weakening in June 2026, with payrolls rising by only 57,000 and a sharp drop in labor force participation. Today's new development: The July jobs report revealed a loss of 23,000 jobs, the first negative month since February, with significant downward revisions to prior months. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% as nearly 1 million people left the labor force over two months. This weakens the case for a Fed rate hike in September, though inflation data remains the key factor. The July report also showed that downward revisions wiped out more than 100,000 payrolls from May and June, bringing the three-month average of monthly job gains to just 20,000. The labor force shrank by 264,000 in July, following a 720,000 drop in June, totaling nearly 1 million people leaving the labor force in two months. The headline decline was distorted by a 50,000 drop in local government education, but leisure and hospitality shed another 40,000 jobs, and financial sector employment fell by 14,000. Health care added only 22,000 jobs, below its average. Following the release, market-based odds of a September Fed rate hike fell from 55% to 44%.

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US intelligence warns Russia may attack NATO within years

Background: The US has repeatedly warned Poland of possible Russian armed provocations to test NATO resolve, including limited incursions, drone strikes, or simulated air attacks. Today's development: New US intelligence reports, cited by The Wall Street Journal, warn that Putin may attempt a limited strike against a NATO member state within the next few years, ranging from cyberattacks to a small-scale ground incursion, to test Alliance resolve and split NATO. The assessment changed earlier this year due to Putin's cornered position in Ukraine and domestic pressure, amid US stockpile shortages of critical munitions depleted by support to Ukraine and conflict with Iran. Possible actions could occur between autumn 2026 and 2029, with the probability of a ground incursion low but growing.

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Background: The US has repeatedly warned Poland of possible Russian armed provocations to test NATO resolve, including limited incursions, drone strikes, or simulated air attacks. Today's development: New US intelligence reports, cited by The Wall Street Journal, warn that Putin may attempt a limited strike against a NATO member state within the next few years, ranging from cyberattacks to a small-scale ground incursion, to test Alliance resolve and split NATO. The assessment changed earlier this year due to Putin's cornered position in Ukraine and domestic pressure, amid US stockpile shortages of critical munitions depleted by support to Ukraine and conflict with Iran. Possible actions could occur between autumn 2026 and 2029, with the probability of a ground incursion low but growing.

us43

US intelligence warns Putin may test NATO with limited attack by 2029

Background: The US has repeatedly warned Poland of possible Russian armed provocations to test NATO resolve, including limited incursions, drone strikes, or simulated air attacks. Today's development: New US intelligence reports, cited by The Wall Street Journal and CNN, warn that Putin may attempt a limited strike against a NATO member state within the next few years, ranging from cyberattacks to a small-scale ground incursion, to test Alliance resolve and split NATO. The assessment changed earlier this year due to Putin's cornered position in Ukraine and domestic pressure, amid US stockpile shortages of critical munitions depleted by support to Ukraine and conflict with Iran. Possible actions could occur between autumn 2026 and 2029, with the probability of a ground incursion low but growing. The most likely targets are the Baltic states or Poland, and Lithuania's intelligence suggests Russia may use Ukrainian drones for attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltics. The new intelligence assessment, reported by The Wall Street Journal and CNN, indicates that the US has revised its earlier stance that Putin would avoid provoking NATO while fighting in Ukraine. The assessment now warns of a possible limited attack on a NATO member, with scenarios ranging from cyberattacks to small-scale incursions or sending soldiers in unmarked uniforms to occupy territory. The most likely targets are the Baltic states or Poland, though a full-scale incursion into NATO's eastern flank is considered unlikely but increasingly possible over time. The estimated timeframe for any potential attack is from this autumn to 2029. The report also highlights depleted US weapons stockpiles after supplying Ukraine and fighting with Iran, with stocks of ATACMS, PrSM, Patriot interceptors, Stinger missiles, and THAAD systems reportedly depleted. President Trump pushed back against these reports, insisting the US has massive amounts of munitions. Additionally, Lithuania's military intelligence has information suggesting Russia may consider attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltics using Ukrainian drones.

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Background: The US has repeatedly warned Poland of possible Russian armed provocations to test NATO resolve, including limited incursions, drone strikes, or simulated air attacks. Today's development: New US intelligence reports, cited by The Wall Street Journal and CNN, warn that Putin may attempt a limited strike against a NATO member state within the next few years, ranging from cyberattacks to a small-scale ground incursion, to test Alliance resolve and split NATO. The assessment changed earlier this year due to Putin's cornered position in Ukraine and domestic pressure, amid US stockpile shortages of critical munitions depleted by support to Ukraine and conflict with Iran. Possible actions could occur between autumn 2026 and 2029, with the probability of a ground incursion low but growing. The most likely targets are the Baltic states or Poland, and Lithuania's intelligence suggests Russia may use Ukrainian drones for attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltics. The new intelligence assessment, reported by The Wall Street Journal and CNN, indicates that the US has revised its earlier stance that Putin would avoid provoking NATO while fighting in Ukraine. The assessment now warns of a possible limited attack on a NATO member, with scenarios ranging from cyberattacks to small-scale incursions or sending soldiers in unmarked uniforms to occupy territory. The most likely targets are the Baltic states or Poland, though a full-scale incursion into NATO's eastern flank is considered unlikely but increasingly possible over time. The estimated timeframe for any potential attack is from this autumn to 2029. The report also highlights depleted US weapons stockpiles after supplying Ukraine and fighting with Iran, with stocks of ATACMS, PrSM, Patriot interceptors, Stinger missiles, and THAAD systems reportedly depleted. President Trump pushed back against these reports, insisting the US has massive amounts of munitions. Additionally, Lithuania's military intelligence has information suggesting Russia may consider attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltics using Ukrainian drones.

us41

US top general urges off-ramp from Iran war

Background: The US has paused escalation of its military campaign against Iran over concerns about depleting Patriot and THAAD interceptor stocks, with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen Dan Caine warning of risks to US troops. Today, CNN reports that General Caine has privately urged the need for an 'off-ramp' from the war with Iran, fearing that airstrikes alone are unlikely to achieve the administration's goals. He has discussed this with Vice President JD Vance, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, signaling internal pressure for a diplomatic solution. This internal push for a diplomatic exit comes amid ongoing concerns about military escalation and interceptor stockpiles.

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Background: The US has paused escalation of its military campaign against Iran over concerns about depleting Patriot and THAAD interceptor stocks, with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen Dan Caine warning of risks to US troops. Today, CNN reports that General Caine has privately urged the need for an 'off-ramp' from the war with Iran, fearing that airstrikes alone are unlikely to achieve the administration's goals. He has discussed this with Vice President JD Vance, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, signaling internal pressure for a diplomatic solution. This internal push for a diplomatic exit comes amid ongoing concerns about military escalation and interceptor stockpiles.

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Trump faces calls for windfall tax on oil profits amid Iran war

Background: Democratic lawmakers have proposed a 100% windfall tax on oil company profits above $75 per barrel, with revenue returned to consumers, as an alternative to Trump's gas tax suspension. Today, President Trump criticized oil companies for making 'too much money' from the Iran war, prompting environmental groups and lawmakers to urge him to endorse a windfall profits tax. ExxonMobil and Chevron reported massive profit increases, and Senators Whitehouse and Khanna have proposed legislation to tax these profits and return proceeds to American families. The Trump administration has rejected export restrictions and defended its energy policies. Recently, environmental groups and some lawmakers have renewed their calls for a windfall profits tax after Trump's remarks, emphasizing that oil companies should return some of their record earnings to the public. Trump has stated that these companies should give money back, and legislative proposals have been introduced in both the Senate and House to tax excess profits and distribute the revenue to American families. The administration continues to oppose export restrictions and maintains its current energy stance.

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Background: Democratic lawmakers have proposed a 100% windfall tax on oil company profits above $75 per barrel, with revenue returned to consumers, as an alternative to Trump's gas tax suspension. Today, President Trump criticized oil companies for making 'too much money' from the Iran war, prompting environmental groups and lawmakers to urge him to endorse a windfall profits tax. ExxonMobil and Chevron reported massive profit increases, and Senators Whitehouse and Khanna have proposed legislation to tax these profits and return proceeds to American families. The Trump administration has rejected export restrictions and defended its energy policies. Recently, environmental groups and some lawmakers have renewed their calls for a windfall profits tax after Trump's remarks, emphasizing that oil companies should return some of their record earnings to the public. Trump has stated that these companies should give money back, and legislative proposals have been introduced in both the Senate and House to tax excess profits and distribute the revenue to American families. The administration continues to oppose export restrictions and maintains its current energy stance.

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US Senate confirms Todd Blanche as attorney general in narrow vote

The US Senate confirmed Todd Blanche, President Donald Trump's former personal lawyer, as attorney general in a 50-49 vote early Saturday. The confirmation ends a weeks-long standoff and installs a staunch Trump loyalist atop the Justice Department. Blanche, who had been serving as acting attorney general since April, overcame opposition from all Democrats and two Republicans, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, with Senator Bill Cassidy casting the decisive vote. His confirmation follows written assurances to GOP holdouts that he would scrap a controversial $1.8 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund and limit a tax audit immunity agreement with Trump to past years. Democrats and critics warn the appointment cements the politicization of the DOJ, which under Blanche has pursued Trump's perceived opponents and faced criticism over its handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files.

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The US Senate confirmed Todd Blanche, President Donald Trump's former personal lawyer, as attorney general in a 50-49 vote early Saturday. The confirmation ends a weeks-long standoff and installs a staunch Trump loyalist atop the Justice Department. Blanche, who had been serving as acting attorney general since April, overcame opposition from all Democrats and two Republicans, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, with Senator Bill Cassidy casting the decisive vote. His confirmation follows written assurances to GOP holdouts that he would scrap a controversial $1.8 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund and limit a tax audit immunity agreement with Trump to past years. Democrats and critics warn the appointment cements the politicization of the DOJ, which under Blanche has pursued Trump's perceived opponents and faced criticism over its handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files.

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Ex-US Marine Robert Gilman Near Death in Russian Custody, Family Says

Former US Marine Robert Gilman, imprisoned in Russia since 2022, is in critical condition after being transferred to a psychiatric hospital in June. His family and advocacy groups report he is unable to communicate and being fed through a tube, allegedly after torture and forced injections. The White House and State Department have urged Moscow to release him for medical treatment, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio raised the case with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Gilman's death could further strain US-Russia relations amid the Ukraine war.

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Former US Marine Robert Gilman, imprisoned in Russia since 2022, is in critical condition after being transferred to a psychiatric hospital in June. His family and advocacy groups report he is unable to communicate and being fed through a tube, allegedly after torture and forced injections. The White House and State Department have urged Moscow to release him for medical treatment, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio raised the case with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Gilman's death could further strain US-Russia relations amid the Ukraine war.

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Republicans to Host First-Ever Midterm Convention in Dallas with Anti-Socialism Telethon

Republicans will hold their first-ever midterm convention in Dallas on September 9-10, using a made-for-prime-time telethon to paint Democrats as captive to the activist left and socialism. The convention will feature footage of progressive figures, focus on kitchen-table issues, and highlight Trump administration achievements. President Trump and Vice President Vance will speak, with the event aimed at shifting focus from Trump's unpopular war in Iran and domestic agenda.

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Republicans will hold their first-ever midterm convention in Dallas on September 9-10, using a made-for-prime-time telethon to paint Democrats as captive to the activist left and socialism. The convention will feature footage of progressive figures, focus on kitchen-table issues, and highlight Trump administration achievements. President Trump and Vice President Vance will speak, with the event aimed at shifting focus from Trump's unpopular war in Iran and domestic agenda.