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Today 13 July Briefing Read full brief

A president tolling the world's oil route, and a Senate too broken to fund his war

Trump declared the US "Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz" and demanded 20% of all cargo transiting it — a tax on world trade that no Congress voted. It landed as his $87.6bn war supplemental reached a Senate that has lost Lindsey Graham to an aortic dissection and Mitch McConnell to a month in hospital, with funding lapsing five weeks before the midterms. He threatened Iran with 1,000 missiles, then agreed to keep talking; Brent settled near $76.

Key Indicators
Full catalog · 86

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29 key official events ahead
July 2026
Statistics
CPI release — June 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for June 2026, 8:30am ET. Headline and core inflation print ahead of the late-July Fed meeting.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (July 28–29 meeting)

FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, followed by a 2:30pm Chair press conference. No new economic projections at this meeting.

Statistics
GDP — Q2 2026 advance estimate (BEA)

First (advance) estimate of second-quarter 2026 real GDP growth from the BEA, 8:30am ET.

August 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — July 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for July 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
CPI release — July 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for July 2026, 8:30am ET.

September 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — August 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for August 2026, 8:30am ET, ahead of the mid-September Fed meeting.

Statistics
CPI release — August 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for August 2026, 8:30am ET — last CPI print before the September Fed decision.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (September 15–16 meeting)

FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

Statistics
GDP — Q2 2026 third estimate (BEA)

Third (final) estimate of Q2 2026 GDP plus corporate profits and state-level data, 8:30am ET.

October 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — September 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for September 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
CPI release — September 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for September 2026, 8:30am ET.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (October 27–28 meeting)

FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, followed by a 2:30pm Chair press conference. No new economic projections at this meeting.

Statistics
GDP — Q3 2026 advance estimate (BEA)

First (advance) estimate of third-quarter 2026 real GDP growth from the BEA, 8:30am ET.

November 2026
Election
US midterm elections — House, one-third of Senate, governorships

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are contested (including Florida and Ohio special elections), alongside 36 governorships. Determines control of the 120th Congress.

Statistics
Employment Situation — October 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for October 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
CPI release — October 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for October 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
GDP — Q3 2026 second estimate (BEA)

Second estimate of Q3 2026 GDP plus corporate profits, 8:30am ET.

December 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — November 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for November 2026, 8:30am ET, ahead of the December Fed meeting.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (December 8–9 meeting)

Final FOMC meeting of 2026; policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

Summit
G20 Leaders' Summit — Miami (Doral), United States

United States hosts the G20 leaders' summit December 14–15 at Trump National Doral, Miami, capping the US G20 presidency year.

Statistics
CPI release — November 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for November 2026, 8:30am ET. Released later than the usual mid-month slot under the revised 2026 schedule.

Statistics
GDP — Q3 2026 third estimate (BEA)

Third (final) estimate of Q3 2026 GDP plus corporate profits and state-level data, 8:30am ET.

January 2027
Statistics
Employment Situation — December 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for December 2026, with annual benchmark revisions. (Provisional — exact 2027 monthly date not yet published by BLS.)

Statistics
CPI release — December 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for December 2026, completing the 2026 inflation picture. (Provisional — exact 2027 monthly date not yet published by BLS.)

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (January 26–27 2027 meeting)

First FOMC decision of 2027 (tentative schedule announced Sept 2025); policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

Statistics
GDP — Q4 2026 advance estimate (BEA)

First (advance) estimate of fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 GDP. (Provisional — exact 2027 date not yet published by BEA; date estimated from the usual late-January cadence.)

March 2027
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (March 16–17 2027 meeting)

2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

April 2027
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (April 27–28 2027 meeting)

2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

June 2027
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (June 8–9 2027 meeting)

2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

United States

Recent events

24
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us48

Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade stalls US nuclear negotiations

Background: The US-Israeli war against Iran has entered its third month with no end in sight, characterized by an indefinite impasse, no good deal possible, Washington losing the initiative, Israel's complicating role, and Iran's asymmetric advantage in defining victory as regime survival. Today: A new analysis argues that Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevents the US from securing nuclear concessions, as Tehran uses its ability to disrupt shipping as leverage. The US military campaign has failed to break the impasse, and the standoff is harming both economies, with Iran facing domestic pressure from economic hardship. The analysis further emphasizes that Iran's blockade remains an effective asymmetric lever that the US cannot neutralize through military strikes, and that Iran has no incentive to reopen the strait before negotiations.

Show summary

Background: The US-Israeli war against Iran has entered its third month with no end in sight, characterized by an indefinite impasse, no good deal possible, Washington losing the initiative, Israel's complicating role, and Iran's asymmetric advantage in defining victory as regime survival. Today: A new analysis argues that Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevents the US from securing nuclear concessions, as Tehran uses its ability to disrupt shipping as leverage. The US military campaign has failed to break the impasse, and the standoff is harming both economies, with Iran facing domestic pressure from economic hardship. The analysis further emphasizes that Iran's blockade remains an effective asymmetric lever that the US cannot neutralize through military strikes, and that Iran has no incentive to reopen the strait before negotiations.

us48

U.S. Deploys Kamikaze Drone Boats in Combat for First Time, Strikes Iranian Naval Facility

On July 12, 2026, U.S. Central Command used Saronic Corsair unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in a strike role for the first time in combat, hitting a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Iran's Bandar Abbas Naval Base. The attack escalates ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over control of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of a ceasefire. President Trump announced the U.S. would take over management of the Strait, reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and impose a 20% toll on cargo. This precedent-setting use of kamikaze USVs marks a new chapter in U.S. naval operations, potentially reducing reliance on crewed aircraft for strikes.

Show summary

On July 12, 2026, U.S. Central Command used Saronic Corsair unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in a strike role for the first time in combat, hitting a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Iran's Bandar Abbas Naval Base. The attack escalates ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over control of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of a ceasefire. President Trump announced the U.S. would take over management of the Strait, reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and impose a 20% toll on cargo. This precedent-setting use of kamikaze USVs marks a new chapter in U.S. naval operations, potentially reducing reliance on crewed aircraft for strikes.

us45

US launches new wave of strikes on Iran; oil rises, shipping slows in Strait of Hormuz

Background: Iran's new leadership adopted a more aggressive military strategy after the US-Israeli war, closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks on US bases. Today: The US completed a new wave of offensive strikes against dozens of Iranian military sites, targeting air-defense, coastal radar, missile, drone, and naval capabilities to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by targeting US positions in the region. Oil prices rose and shipping through the strait slowed sharply.

Show summary

Background: Iran's new leadership adopted a more aggressive military strategy after the US-Israeli war, closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks on US bases. Today: The US completed a new wave of offensive strikes against dozens of Iranian military sites, targeting air-defense, coastal radar, missile, drone, and naval capabilities to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by targeting US positions in the region. Oil prices rose and shipping through the strait slowed sharply.

us45

Centcom denies Iranian propaganda of US casualties in Kuwait as Iran closes Strait of Hormuz and Trump announces naval blockade

Background: The IRGC denied US claims of a direct hotline regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump accused Iran of violating a ceasefire by launching suicide drones at ships. Today: U.S. Central Command refuted Iranian propaganda claiming three American service members were killed and HIMARS systems destroyed in Kuwait. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after striking a Cyprus-flagged container ship, the GFS Galaxy, for using an unauthorized route. President Trump announced the resumption of a U.S. naval blockade in the strait, declaring the U.S. would keep the strait open and impose a 20% fee on cargo, claiming the US would act as 'Guardian of the Strait.' Ship traffic hit a five-week low with only six ships passing through on Sunday. Iran's military command warned it would not allow US intervention and threatened severe consequences for any cooperation with the US. The UN shipping agency opposed the fee. Oil prices rose 5% to $79.37 a barrel, and global stock markets fell sharply. The UK announced it would list Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization. Iran's IRGC claimed it struck US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and hit radar systems in Oman. The US military conducted a fourth wave of strikes, including the first use of sea drones, targeting Iranian air defense, radar, missile, and drone sites. Iran's foreign ministry said the June memorandum of understanding was 'in crisis.' The E-3 (France, Germany, UK) condemned Iran's attacks on shipping and regional states, calling for a ceasefire and resumption of negotiations.

Show summary

Background: The IRGC denied US claims of a direct hotline regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump accused Iran of violating a ceasefire by launching suicide drones at ships. Today: U.S. Central Command refuted Iranian propaganda claiming three American service members were killed and HIMARS systems destroyed in Kuwait. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after striking a Cyprus-flagged container ship, the GFS Galaxy, for using an unauthorized route. President Trump announced the resumption of a U.S. naval blockade in the strait, declaring the U.S. would keep the strait open and impose a 20% fee on cargo, claiming the US would act as 'Guardian of the Strait.' Ship traffic hit a five-week low with only six ships passing through on Sunday. Iran's military command warned it would not allow US intervention and threatened severe consequences for any cooperation with the US. The UN shipping agency opposed the fee. Oil prices rose 5% to $79.37 a barrel, and global stock markets fell sharply. The UK announced it would list Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization. Iran's IRGC claimed it struck US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and hit radar systems in Oman. The US military conducted a fourth wave of strikes, including the first use of sea drones, targeting Iranian air defense, radar, missile, and drone sites. Iran's foreign ministry said the June memorandum of understanding was 'in crisis.' The E-3 (France, Germany, UK) condemned Iran's attacks on shipping and regional states, calling for a ceasefire and resumption of negotiations.

us43

US strikes on Iran's Abadan kill at least two

US missile strikes targeted three locations in the Iranian city of Abadan in Khuzestan province, killing at least two people and wounding three others, as reported by the deputy governor of the province. The strikes mark a significant escalation in US-Iran hostilities, with oil prices spiking in response.

Show summary

US missile strikes targeted three locations in the Iranian city of Abadan in Khuzestan province, killing at least two people and wounding three others, as reported by the deputy governor of the province. The strikes mark a significant escalation in US-Iran hostilities, with oil prices spiking in response.

us38

Trump threatens to hit Iran 'very hard' over alleged deal violation

President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating an interim agreement and threatened severe retaliation, stating 'we're just going to hit them very hard.' In a Fox News interview, he called Iran 'a bad group of people' and claimed they have broken ten previous deals. This escalates tensions between the US and Iran amid mutual accusations of non-compliance.

Show summary

President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating an interim agreement and threatened severe retaliation, stating 'we're just going to hit them very hard.' In a Fox News interview, he called Iran 'a bad group of people' and claimed they have broken ten previous deals. This escalates tensions between the US and Iran amid mutual accusations of non-compliance.

us35

China test-fires nuclear-capable submarine missile into Pacific near Solomon Islands amid Iran-Israel conflict

Background: On July 6, 2026, China's People's Liberation Army Navy test-launched a long-range ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the South Pacific, drawing regional condemnation. Today: China conducted its first submarine-launched ballistic missile test from a nuclear-powered vessel since 1982, firing a JL-2 missile with a range of approximately 7,000 km into the Pacific Ocean near the Solomon Islands. The test, overshadowed by the Iran-Israel conflict, drew condemnation from the US and is seen as a demonstration of China's naval power projection aimed at Pacific nations, the US, and domestic audiences. It coincided with joint Chinese-Russian naval exercises off Qingdao.

Show summary

Background: On July 6, 2026, China's People's Liberation Army Navy test-launched a long-range ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the South Pacific, drawing regional condemnation. Today: China conducted its first submarine-launched ballistic missile test from a nuclear-powered vessel since 1982, firing a JL-2 missile with a range of approximately 7,000 km into the Pacific Ocean near the Solomon Islands. The test, overshadowed by the Iran-Israel conflict, drew condemnation from the US and is seen as a demonstration of China's naval power projection aimed at Pacific nations, the US, and domestic audiences. It coincided with joint Chinese-Russian naval exercises off Qingdao.

us35

Pentagon and DOJ form joint task force to prosecute leakers

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a joint task force between the Pentagon and the Department of Justice to identify and prosecute individuals leaking classified information. The task force will prioritize requests from the Pentagon's Office of General Counsel, requiring full responses within two days. This move is part of a broader crackdown on leaks, following investigations into Hegseth's own aides and a controversial policy barring reporters from the Pentagon.

Show summary

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a joint task force between the Pentagon and the Department of Justice to identify and prosecute individuals leaking classified information. The task force will prioritize requests from the Pentagon's Office of General Counsel, requiring full responses within two days. This move is part of a broader crackdown on leaks, following investigations into Hegseth's own aides and a controversial policy barring reporters from the Pentagon.

Frequently Asked

5
What did Trump announce regarding the Hormuz Strait?
Trump declared the US the 'Guardian of the Hormuz Strait' and imposed a 20% fee on all cargo shipped through it, while reinstating a naval blockade on Iranian vessels.
Why is the Senate struggling to fund the war?
The Senate faces a $87.6 billion supplemental request, but Lindsey Graham died on Saturday, and Mitch McConnell has been hospitalized since June 14, leaving the chamber short of key votes.
What actions did Trump take unilaterally this week?
Trump reimposed the Iran blockade, ordered a third round of strikes inside Iran, fired the last three federal election commissioners, and tied counterterrorism funding to voter-citizenship checks.
How did the international community react to the Hormuz Strait fee?
The International Maritime Organization opposed the fee, EU foreign-policy chief Kaja Kallas called for freedom of navigation, and former US energy diplomat David Goldwyn called it 'bluster.'
What is the SAVE America Act and why is it stalled?
The SAVE America Act requires photo ID and citizenship proof to vote, but cannot pass the Senate, leading Trump to fire election commissioners and withhold FEMA grants to enforce it.