FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, followed by a 2:30pm Chair press conference. No new economic projections at this meeting.
Trump can widen the Iran war or prepare to contest the midterms. This week he tried to do both.
Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.
Upcoming
28 key official events aheadFirst (advance) estimate of second-quarter 2026 real GDP growth from the BEA, 8:30am ET.
BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for July 2026, 8:30am ET.
BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for August 2026, 8:30am ET, ahead of the mid-September Fed meeting.
BLS Consumer Price Index for August 2026, 8:30am ET — last CPI print before the September Fed decision.
FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.
Third (final) estimate of Q2 2026 GDP plus corporate profits and state-level data, 8:30am ET.
BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for September 2026, 8:30am ET.
BLS Consumer Price Index for September 2026, 8:30am ET.
FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, followed by a 2:30pm Chair press conference. No new economic projections at this meeting.
First (advance) estimate of third-quarter 2026 real GDP growth from the BEA, 8:30am ET.
All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are contested (including Florida and Ohio special elections), alongside 36 governorships. Determines control of the 120th Congress.
BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for October 2026, 8:30am ET.
Second estimate of Q3 2026 GDP plus corporate profits, 8:30am ET.
BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for November 2026, 8:30am ET, ahead of the December Fed meeting.
Final FOMC meeting of 2026; policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.
United States hosts the G20 leaders' summit December 14–15 at Trump National Doral, Miami, capping the US G20 presidency year.
BLS Consumer Price Index for November 2026, 8:30am ET. Released later than the usual mid-month slot under the revised 2026 schedule.
Third (final) estimate of Q3 2026 GDP plus corporate profits and state-level data, 8:30am ET.
BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for December 2026, with annual benchmark revisions. (Provisional — exact 2027 monthly date not yet published by BLS.)
BLS Consumer Price Index for December 2026, completing the 2026 inflation picture. (Provisional — exact 2027 monthly date not yet published by BLS.)
First FOMC decision of 2027 (tentative schedule announced Sept 2025); policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.
First (advance) estimate of fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 GDP. (Provisional — exact 2027 date not yet published by BEA; date estimated from the usual late-January cadence.)
2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.
2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.
2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.
Recent events
us48IRGC vows 'unforgettable lesson' to US as Iran signals openness to talks amid ninth day of strikes
Background: Iran's new leadership adopted a more aggressive military strategy after the US-Israeli war, closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks on US bases. Today: The IRGC issued a formal statement to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei vowing an 'unforgettable lesson' to the US, calling his message a 'binding command, a divine covenant and a clear roadmap.' Iranian and US forces exchanged strikes for the ninth consecutive day, with the US confirming three deaths and Iran reporting at least 50 killed and 500 injured. Cities in northwestern Iran, Tabriz and Urmia, were targeted for the first time. A Malta-flagged vessel caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz, with IRGC-affiliated media claiming it carried Saudi oil bound for the US. Iran's foreign ministry signaled diplomacy remains open, with mediators seeking a 10-day ceasefire to revive the framework deal. Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni's visit to Islamabad may carry a message from President Pezeshkian on possible negotiations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US is open to diplomacy but requires a real deal. Iranian military officials argued fighting must continue until a new deterrence balance is established. Parliament speaker Ghalibaf accused Washington of bad faith, saying the US brings new military equipment while claiming to seek an end to the war. President Pezeshkian said Iran would stand 'until the last breath' in defending the country. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, absent since the war began, described Trump's signature on the interim ceasefire agreement as 'worthless and invalid.'
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IRGC vows 'unforgettable lesson' to US as Iran signals openness to talks amid ninth day of strikes
Background: Iran's new leadership adopted a more aggressive military strategy after the US-Israeli war, closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks on US bases. Today: The IRGC issued a formal statement to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei vowing an 'unforgettable lesson' to the US, calling his message a 'binding command, a divine covenant and a clear roadmap.' Iranian and US forces exchanged strikes for the ninth consecutive day, with the US confirming three deaths and Iran reporting at least 50 killed and 500 injured. Cities in northwestern Iran, Tabriz and Urmia, were targeted for the first time. A Malta-flagged vessel caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz, with IRGC-affiliated media claiming it carried Saudi oil bound for the US. Iran's foreign ministry signaled diplomacy remains open, with mediators seeking a 10-day ceasefire to revive the framework deal. Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni's visit to Islamabad may carry a message from President Pezeshkian on possible negotiations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US is open to diplomacy but requires a real deal. Iranian military officials argued fighting must continue until a new deterrence balance is established. Parliament speaker Ghalibaf accused Washington of bad faith, saying the US brings new military equipment while claiming to seek an end to the war. President Pezeshkian said Iran would stand 'until the last breath' in defending the country. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, absent since the war began, described Trump's signature on the interim ceasefire agreement as 'worthless and invalid.'
Background: Iran's new leadership adopted a more aggressive military strategy after the US-Israeli war, closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks on US bases. Today: The IRGC issued a formal statement to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei vowing an 'unforgettable lesson' to the US, calling his message a 'binding command, a divine covenant and a clear roadmap.' Iranian and US forces exchanged strikes for the ninth consecutive day, with the US confirming three deaths and Iran reporting at least 50 killed and 500 injured. Cities in northwestern Iran, Tabriz and Urmia, were targeted for the first time. A Malta-flagged vessel caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz, with IRGC-affiliated media claiming it carried Saudi oil bound for the US. Iran's foreign ministry signaled diplomacy remains open, with mediators seeking a 10-day ceasefire to revive the framework deal. Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni's visit to Islamabad may carry a message from President Pezeshkian on possible negotiations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US is open to diplomacy but requires a real deal. Iranian military officials argued fighting must continue until a new deterrence balance is established. Parliament speaker Ghalibaf accused Washington of bad faith, saying the US brings new military equipment while claiming to seek an end to the war. President Pezeshkian said Iran would stand 'until the last breath' in defending the country. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, absent since the war began, described Trump's signature on the interim ceasefire agreement as 'worthless and invalid.'
us45Mediators propose 10-day halt to strikes to revive Iran-US deal
Background: US President Donald Trump postponed planned attacks on Iran after regional leaders signaled a deal to end the war is near. Mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes to explore ways to revive the interim Iran-US deal, according to senior Iranian sources.
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Mediators propose 10-day halt to strikes to revive Iran-US deal
Background: US President Donald Trump postponed planned attacks on Iran after regional leaders signaled a deal to end the war is near. Mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes to explore ways to revive the interim Iran-US deal, according to senior Iranian sources.
Background: US President Donald Trump postponed planned attacks on Iran after regional leaders signaled a deal to end the war is near. Mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes to explore ways to revive the interim Iran-US deal, according to senior Iranian sources.
us43Senate Democrats release report accusing Trump of using presidency for personal profit
Background: A French investigative report previously revealed that President Donald Trump and his family leveraged his return to the White House for personal enrichment, including a Kazakhstan tungsten deal and other ventures. Today, Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, released a report titled 'The Cost of Corruption,' alleging Trump and his family have earned over $4 billion since his second term began. The report highlights a tungsten mining deal with Kazakhstan, defense technology investments generating $3.2 billion in government business, and the Trump family's cryptocurrency venture World Liberty Financial backed by UAE investments. Democrats formed an anti-corruption working group to expose alleged self-dealing and tie it to rising costs for American families.
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Senate Democrats release report accusing Trump of using presidency for personal profit
Background: A French investigative report previously revealed that President Donald Trump and his family leveraged his return to the White House for personal enrichment, including a Kazakhstan tungsten deal and other ventures. Today, Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, released a report titled 'The Cost of Corruption,' alleging Trump and his family have earned over $4 billion since his second term began. The report highlights a tungsten mining deal with Kazakhstan, defense technology investments generating $3.2 billion in government business, and the Trump family's cryptocurrency venture World Liberty Financial backed by UAE investments. Democrats formed an anti-corruption working group to expose alleged self-dealing and tie it to rising costs for American families.
Background: A French investigative report previously revealed that President Donald Trump and his family leveraged his return to the White House for personal enrichment, including a Kazakhstan tungsten deal and other ventures. Today, Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, released a report titled 'The Cost of Corruption,' alleging Trump and his family have earned over $4 billion since his second term began. The report highlights a tungsten mining deal with Kazakhstan, defense technology investments generating $3.2 billion in government business, and the Trump family's cryptocurrency venture World Liberty Financial backed by UAE investments. Democrats formed an anti-corruption working group to expose alleged self-dealing and tie it to rising costs for American families.
us41Trump Announces Giant Eagle Price Cuts on Over 300 Products Amid Affordability Crisis
President Trump announced via Truth Social that regional grocer Giant Eagle will lower prices on more than 300 products through Labor Day, following a similar initiative by Walmart. The move is part of Trump's push to address widespread public concern over affordability, with polls showing 95% of Americans view the country in an affordability crisis and 77% blame Trump for rising consumer costs. Trump urged other grocery chains to follow suit.
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Trump Announces Giant Eagle Price Cuts on Over 300 Products Amid Affordability Crisis
President Trump announced via Truth Social that regional grocer Giant Eagle will lower prices on more than 300 products through Labor Day, following a similar initiative by Walmart. The move is part of Trump's push to address widespread public concern over affordability, with polls showing 95% of Americans view the country in an affordability crisis and 77% blame Trump for rising consumer costs. Trump urged other grocery chains to follow suit.
President Trump announced via Truth Social that regional grocer Giant Eagle will lower prices on more than 300 products through Labor Day, following a similar initiative by Walmart. The move is part of Trump's push to address widespread public concern over affordability, with polls showing 95% of Americans view the country in an affordability crisis and 77% blame Trump for rising consumer costs. Trump urged other grocery chains to follow suit.
us40Trump's political interventions overshadow 2026 World Cup as Spain wins final
Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 in the 2026 World Cup final, but U.S. President Donald Trump dominated the tournament through political interventions, including denying entry to a Somali FIFA referee, forcing Iran to train in Mexico, and successfully lobbying FIFA to overturn a red card suspension for U.S. striker Folarin Balogun. Experts say Trump weaponized the tournament for domestic political gain ahead of the November midterm elections, despite his low approval rating and ongoing war in Iran. The Balogun intervention backfired as the U.S. lost 4-1 to Belgium in the round of 16. Trump attended only the final, where he lingered on stage and was booed, and later proposed hosting future World Cups again. The tournament set profit records but drew international criticism for politicization.
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Trump's political interventions overshadow 2026 World Cup as Spain wins final
Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 in the 2026 World Cup final, but U.S. President Donald Trump dominated the tournament through political interventions, including denying entry to a Somali FIFA referee, forcing Iran to train in Mexico, and successfully lobbying FIFA to overturn a red card suspension for U.S. striker Folarin Balogun. Experts say Trump weaponized the tournament for domestic political gain ahead of the November midterm elections, despite his low approval rating and ongoing war in Iran. The Balogun intervention backfired as the U.S. lost 4-1 to Belgium in the round of 16. Trump attended only the final, where he lingered on stage and was booed, and later proposed hosting future World Cups again. The tournament set profit records but drew international criticism for politicization.
Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 in the 2026 World Cup final, but U.S. President Donald Trump dominated the tournament through political interventions, including denying entry to a Somali FIFA referee, forcing Iran to train in Mexico, and successfully lobbying FIFA to overturn a red card suspension for U.S. striker Folarin Balogun. Experts say Trump weaponized the tournament for domestic political gain ahead of the November midterm elections, despite his low approval rating and ongoing war in Iran. The Balogun intervention backfired as the U.S. lost 4-1 to Belgium in the round of 16. Trump attended only the final, where he lingered on stage and was booed, and later proposed hosting future World Cups again. The tournament set profit records but drew international criticism for politicization.
us39Pakistan's Munir brokers US-Iran ceasefire, Vance holds highest-level talks in Islamabad
Pakistan has mediated between the US and Iran since February 2026, culminating in a ceasefire and peace talks in Switzerland. On April 7, Field Marshal Asim Munir personally pressed Trump and Iran's leadership to stop the war, leading to a ceasefire announcement within hours; Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly thanked Munir and PM Shehbaz Sharif. US Vice President JD Vance then held over 20 hours of direct talks with Iranian negotiators in Islamabad, the highest-level US-Iran contact since 1979. The article analyzes how Pakistan's cross-cutting relationships with China, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Iran; credible coercive leverage via a mutual defense pact with Riyadh; and risk-tolerant leadership enabled this mediation, positioning it as a model for nontraditional powers (Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman) filling gaps left by traditional powers and multilateral bodies in conflict resolution.
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Pakistan's Munir brokers US-Iran ceasefire, Vance holds highest-level talks in Islamabad
Pakistan has mediated between the US and Iran since February 2026, culminating in a ceasefire and peace talks in Switzerland. On April 7, Field Marshal Asim Munir personally pressed Trump and Iran's leadership to stop the war, leading to a ceasefire announcement within hours; Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly thanked Munir and PM Shehbaz Sharif. US Vice President JD Vance then held over 20 hours of direct talks with Iranian negotiators in Islamabad, the highest-level US-Iran contact since 1979. The article analyzes how Pakistan's cross-cutting relationships with China, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Iran; credible coercive leverage via a mutual defense pact with Riyadh; and risk-tolerant leadership enabled this mediation, positioning it as a model for nontraditional powers (Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman) filling gaps left by traditional powers and multilateral bodies in conflict resolution.
Pakistan has mediated between the US and Iran since February 2026, culminating in a ceasefire and peace talks in Switzerland. On April 7, Field Marshal Asim Munir personally pressed Trump and Iran's leadership to stop the war, leading to a ceasefire announcement within hours; Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly thanked Munir and PM Shehbaz Sharif. US Vice President JD Vance then held over 20 hours of direct talks with Iranian negotiators in Islamabad, the highest-level US-Iran contact since 1979. The article analyzes how Pakistan's cross-cutting relationships with China, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Iran; credible coercive leverage via a mutual defense pact with Riyadh; and risk-tolerant leadership enabled this mediation, positioning it as a model for nontraditional powers (Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman) filling gaps left by traditional powers and multilateral bodies in conflict resolution.
us38Oil prices remain subdued despite US-Iran war due to multiple factors
Despite a five-month US-Israel war with Iran that disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments, oil prices have not spiked as expected, averaging $101 per barrel. Key factors include China slashing crude imports to the lowest in nearly a decade by June, record US oil production reaching 13.93 million barrels per day by April, Trump's peace signals that repeatedly wrong-footed oil market bulls, increased Saudi Red Sea exports from Yanbu port, and ample supply of prompt physical cargoes. Brent peaked at $126, well below the 2008 record of $147, and briefly retreated to pre-war levels of $70 in early July. Oil market liquidity has dropped as traders became reluctant to make large bullish bets amid the risk of sudden market reversals.
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Oil prices remain subdued despite US-Iran war due to multiple factors
Despite a five-month US-Israel war with Iran that disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments, oil prices have not spiked as expected, averaging $101 per barrel. Key factors include China slashing crude imports to the lowest in nearly a decade by June, record US oil production reaching 13.93 million barrels per day by April, Trump's peace signals that repeatedly wrong-footed oil market bulls, increased Saudi Red Sea exports from Yanbu port, and ample supply of prompt physical cargoes. Brent peaked at $126, well below the 2008 record of $147, and briefly retreated to pre-war levels of $70 in early July. Oil market liquidity has dropped as traders became reluctant to make large bullish bets amid the risk of sudden market reversals.
Despite a five-month US-Israel war with Iran that disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments, oil prices have not spiked as expected, averaging $101 per barrel. Key factors include China slashing crude imports to the lowest in nearly a decade by June, record US oil production reaching 13.93 million barrels per day by April, Trump's peace signals that repeatedly wrong-footed oil market bulls, increased Saudi Red Sea exports from Yanbu port, and ample supply of prompt physical cargoes. Brent peaked at $126, well below the 2008 record of $147, and briefly retreated to pre-war levels of $70 in early July. Oil market liquidity has dropped as traders became reluctant to make large bullish bets amid the risk of sudden market reversals.
us35Iran accuses US of contradicting peace claims with new military deployments
Iran's parliament spokesperson Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the United States of claiming to seek an end to the war while simultaneously deploying new military equipment to the region. In a post on X, Ghalibaf stated that Iran has reached "master-level proficiency" in recognizing such American games and that actions must confirm claims, not contradict them.
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Iran accuses US of contradicting peace claims with new military deployments
Iran's parliament spokesperson Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the United States of claiming to seek an end to the war while simultaneously deploying new military equipment to the region. In a post on X, Ghalibaf stated that Iran has reached "master-level proficiency" in recognizing such American games and that actions must confirm claims, not contradict them.
Iran's parliament spokesperson Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the United States of claiming to seek an end to the war while simultaneously deploying new military equipment to the region. In a post on X, Ghalibaf stated that Iran has reached "master-level proficiency" in recognizing such American games and that actions must confirm claims, not contradict them.