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Today 20 July Briefing Read full brief

Trump can widen the Iran war or prepare to contest the midterms. This week he tried to do both.

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

Key Indicators
Full catalog · 86

Upcoming

28 key official events ahead
July 2026
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (July 28–29 meeting)

FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, followed by a 2:30pm Chair press conference. No new economic projections at this meeting.

Statistics
GDP — Q2 2026 advance estimate (BEA)

First (advance) estimate of second-quarter 2026 real GDP growth from the BEA, 8:30am ET.

August 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — July 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for July 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
CPI release — July 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for July 2026, 8:30am ET.

September 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — August 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for August 2026, 8:30am ET, ahead of the mid-September Fed meeting.

Statistics
CPI release — August 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for August 2026, 8:30am ET — last CPI print before the September Fed decision.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (September 15–16 meeting)

FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

Statistics
GDP — Q2 2026 third estimate (BEA)

Third (final) estimate of Q2 2026 GDP plus corporate profits and state-level data, 8:30am ET.

October 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — September 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for September 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
CPI release — September 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for September 2026, 8:30am ET.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (October 27–28 meeting)

FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, followed by a 2:30pm Chair press conference. No new economic projections at this meeting.

Statistics
GDP — Q3 2026 advance estimate (BEA)

First (advance) estimate of third-quarter 2026 real GDP growth from the BEA, 8:30am ET.

November 2026
Election
US midterm elections — House, one-third of Senate, governorships

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are contested (including Florida and Ohio special elections), alongside 36 governorships. Determines control of the 120th Congress.

Statistics
Employment Situation — October 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for October 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
CPI release — October 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for October 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
GDP — Q3 2026 second estimate (BEA)

Second estimate of Q3 2026 GDP plus corporate profits, 8:30am ET.

December 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — November 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for November 2026, 8:30am ET, ahead of the December Fed meeting.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (December 8–9 meeting)

Final FOMC meeting of 2026; policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

Summit
G20 Leaders' Summit — Miami (Doral), United States

United States hosts the G20 leaders' summit December 14–15 at Trump National Doral, Miami, capping the US G20 presidency year.

Statistics
CPI release — November 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for November 2026, 8:30am ET. Released later than the usual mid-month slot under the revised 2026 schedule.

Statistics
GDP — Q3 2026 third estimate (BEA)

Third (final) estimate of Q3 2026 GDP plus corporate profits and state-level data, 8:30am ET.

January 2027
Statistics
Employment Situation — December 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for December 2026, with annual benchmark revisions. (Provisional — exact 2027 monthly date not yet published by BLS.)

Statistics
CPI release — December 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for December 2026, completing the 2026 inflation picture. (Provisional — exact 2027 monthly date not yet published by BLS.)

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (January 26–27 2027 meeting)

First FOMC decision of 2027 (tentative schedule announced Sept 2025); policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

Statistics
GDP — Q4 2026 advance estimate (BEA)

First (advance) estimate of fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 GDP. (Provisional — exact 2027 date not yet published by BEA; date estimated from the usual late-January cadence.)

March 2027
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (March 16–17 2027 meeting)

2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

April 2027
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (April 27–28 2027 meeting)

2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

June 2027
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (June 8–9 2027 meeting)

2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

United States

Recent events

24
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us48

IRGC vows 'unforgettable lesson' to US as Iran signals openness to talks amid ninth day of strikes

Background: Iran's new leadership adopted a more aggressive military strategy after the US-Israeli war, closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks on US bases. Today: The IRGC issued a formal statement to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei vowing an 'unforgettable lesson' to the US, calling his message a 'binding command, a divine covenant and a clear roadmap.' Iranian and US forces exchanged strikes for the ninth consecutive day, with the US confirming three deaths and Iran reporting at least 50 killed and 500 injured. Cities in northwestern Iran, Tabriz and Urmia, were targeted for the first time. A Malta-flagged vessel caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz, with IRGC-affiliated media claiming it carried Saudi oil bound for the US. Iran's foreign ministry signaled diplomacy remains open, with mediators seeking a 10-day ceasefire to revive the framework deal. Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni's visit to Islamabad may carry a message from President Pezeshkian on possible negotiations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US is open to diplomacy but requires a real deal. Iranian military officials argued fighting must continue until a new deterrence balance is established. Parliament speaker Ghalibaf accused Washington of bad faith, saying the US brings new military equipment while claiming to seek an end to the war. President Pezeshkian said Iran would stand 'until the last breath' in defending the country. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, absent since the war began, described Trump's signature on the interim ceasefire agreement as 'worthless and invalid.'

Show summary

Background: Iran's new leadership adopted a more aggressive military strategy after the US-Israeli war, closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks on US bases. Today: The IRGC issued a formal statement to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei vowing an 'unforgettable lesson' to the US, calling his message a 'binding command, a divine covenant and a clear roadmap.' Iranian and US forces exchanged strikes for the ninth consecutive day, with the US confirming three deaths and Iran reporting at least 50 killed and 500 injured. Cities in northwestern Iran, Tabriz and Urmia, were targeted for the first time. A Malta-flagged vessel caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz, with IRGC-affiliated media claiming it carried Saudi oil bound for the US. Iran's foreign ministry signaled diplomacy remains open, with mediators seeking a 10-day ceasefire to revive the framework deal. Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni's visit to Islamabad may carry a message from President Pezeshkian on possible negotiations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US is open to diplomacy but requires a real deal. Iranian military officials argued fighting must continue until a new deterrence balance is established. Parliament speaker Ghalibaf accused Washington of bad faith, saying the US brings new military equipment while claiming to seek an end to the war. President Pezeshkian said Iran would stand 'until the last breath' in defending the country. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, absent since the war began, described Trump's signature on the interim ceasefire agreement as 'worthless and invalid.'

us45

Mediators propose 10-day halt to strikes to revive Iran-US deal

Background: US President Donald Trump postponed planned attacks on Iran after regional leaders signaled a deal to end the war is near. Mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes to explore ways to revive the interim Iran-US deal, according to senior Iranian sources.

Show summary

Background: US President Donald Trump postponed planned attacks on Iran after regional leaders signaled a deal to end the war is near. Mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes to explore ways to revive the interim Iran-US deal, according to senior Iranian sources.

us43

Senate Democrats release report accusing Trump of using presidency for personal profit

Background: A French investigative report previously revealed that President Donald Trump and his family leveraged his return to the White House for personal enrichment, including a Kazakhstan tungsten deal and other ventures. Today, Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, released a report titled 'The Cost of Corruption,' alleging Trump and his family have earned over $4 billion since his second term began. The report highlights a tungsten mining deal with Kazakhstan, defense technology investments generating $3.2 billion in government business, and the Trump family's cryptocurrency venture World Liberty Financial backed by UAE investments. Democrats formed an anti-corruption working group to expose alleged self-dealing and tie it to rising costs for American families.

Show summary

Background: A French investigative report previously revealed that President Donald Trump and his family leveraged his return to the White House for personal enrichment, including a Kazakhstan tungsten deal and other ventures. Today, Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, released a report titled 'The Cost of Corruption,' alleging Trump and his family have earned over $4 billion since his second term began. The report highlights a tungsten mining deal with Kazakhstan, defense technology investments generating $3.2 billion in government business, and the Trump family's cryptocurrency venture World Liberty Financial backed by UAE investments. Democrats formed an anti-corruption working group to expose alleged self-dealing and tie it to rising costs for American families.

us41

Trump Announces Giant Eagle Price Cuts on Over 300 Products Amid Affordability Crisis

President Trump announced via Truth Social that regional grocer Giant Eagle will lower prices on more than 300 products through Labor Day, following a similar initiative by Walmart. The move is part of Trump's push to address widespread public concern over affordability, with polls showing 95% of Americans view the country in an affordability crisis and 77% blame Trump for rising consumer costs. Trump urged other grocery chains to follow suit.

Show summary

President Trump announced via Truth Social that regional grocer Giant Eagle will lower prices on more than 300 products through Labor Day, following a similar initiative by Walmart. The move is part of Trump's push to address widespread public concern over affordability, with polls showing 95% of Americans view the country in an affordability crisis and 77% blame Trump for rising consumer costs. Trump urged other grocery chains to follow suit.

us40

Trump's political interventions overshadow 2026 World Cup as Spain wins final

Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 in the 2026 World Cup final, but U.S. President Donald Trump dominated the tournament through political interventions, including denying entry to a Somali FIFA referee, forcing Iran to train in Mexico, and successfully lobbying FIFA to overturn a red card suspension for U.S. striker Folarin Balogun. Experts say Trump weaponized the tournament for domestic political gain ahead of the November midterm elections, despite his low approval rating and ongoing war in Iran. The Balogun intervention backfired as the U.S. lost 4-1 to Belgium in the round of 16. Trump attended only the final, where he lingered on stage and was booed, and later proposed hosting future World Cups again. The tournament set profit records but drew international criticism for politicization.

Show summary

Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 in the 2026 World Cup final, but U.S. President Donald Trump dominated the tournament through political interventions, including denying entry to a Somali FIFA referee, forcing Iran to train in Mexico, and successfully lobbying FIFA to overturn a red card suspension for U.S. striker Folarin Balogun. Experts say Trump weaponized the tournament for domestic political gain ahead of the November midterm elections, despite his low approval rating and ongoing war in Iran. The Balogun intervention backfired as the U.S. lost 4-1 to Belgium in the round of 16. Trump attended only the final, where he lingered on stage and was booed, and later proposed hosting future World Cups again. The tournament set profit records but drew international criticism for politicization.

us39

Pakistan's Munir brokers US-Iran ceasefire, Vance holds highest-level talks in Islamabad

Pakistan has mediated between the US and Iran since February 2026, culminating in a ceasefire and peace talks in Switzerland. On April 7, Field Marshal Asim Munir personally pressed Trump and Iran's leadership to stop the war, leading to a ceasefire announcement within hours; Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly thanked Munir and PM Shehbaz Sharif. US Vice President JD Vance then held over 20 hours of direct talks with Iranian negotiators in Islamabad, the highest-level US-Iran contact since 1979. The article analyzes how Pakistan's cross-cutting relationships with China, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Iran; credible coercive leverage via a mutual defense pact with Riyadh; and risk-tolerant leadership enabled this mediation, positioning it as a model for nontraditional powers (Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman) filling gaps left by traditional powers and multilateral bodies in conflict resolution.

Show summary

Pakistan has mediated between the US and Iran since February 2026, culminating in a ceasefire and peace talks in Switzerland. On April 7, Field Marshal Asim Munir personally pressed Trump and Iran's leadership to stop the war, leading to a ceasefire announcement within hours; Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly thanked Munir and PM Shehbaz Sharif. US Vice President JD Vance then held over 20 hours of direct talks with Iranian negotiators in Islamabad, the highest-level US-Iran contact since 1979. The article analyzes how Pakistan's cross-cutting relationships with China, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Iran; credible coercive leverage via a mutual defense pact with Riyadh; and risk-tolerant leadership enabled this mediation, positioning it as a model for nontraditional powers (Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman) filling gaps left by traditional powers and multilateral bodies in conflict resolution.

us38

Oil prices remain subdued despite US-Iran war due to multiple factors

Despite a five-month US-Israel war with Iran that disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments, oil prices have not spiked as expected, averaging $101 per barrel. Key factors include China slashing crude imports to the lowest in nearly a decade by June, record US oil production reaching 13.93 million barrels per day by April, Trump's peace signals that repeatedly wrong-footed oil market bulls, increased Saudi Red Sea exports from Yanbu port, and ample supply of prompt physical cargoes. Brent peaked at $126, well below the 2008 record of $147, and briefly retreated to pre-war levels of $70 in early July. Oil market liquidity has dropped as traders became reluctant to make large bullish bets amid the risk of sudden market reversals.

Show summary

Despite a five-month US-Israel war with Iran that disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments, oil prices have not spiked as expected, averaging $101 per barrel. Key factors include China slashing crude imports to the lowest in nearly a decade by June, record US oil production reaching 13.93 million barrels per day by April, Trump's peace signals that repeatedly wrong-footed oil market bulls, increased Saudi Red Sea exports from Yanbu port, and ample supply of prompt physical cargoes. Brent peaked at $126, well below the 2008 record of $147, and briefly retreated to pre-war levels of $70 in early July. Oil market liquidity has dropped as traders became reluctant to make large bullish bets amid the risk of sudden market reversals.

us35

Iran accuses US of contradicting peace claims with new military deployments

Iran's parliament spokesperson Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the United States of claiming to seek an end to the war while simultaneously deploying new military equipment to the region. In a post on X, Ghalibaf stated that Iran has reached "master-level proficiency" in recognizing such American games and that actions must confirm claims, not contradict them.

Show summary

Iran's parliament spokesperson Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the United States of claiming to seek an end to the war while simultaneously deploying new military equipment to the region. In a post on X, Ghalibaf stated that Iran has reached "master-level proficiency" in recognizing such American games and that actions must confirm claims, not contradict them.

Frequently Asked

5
What did Trump do regarding Iran this week?
Trump escalated the Iran conflict by enforcing a renewed blockade with over 20 US warships and conducting a ninth consecutive night of airstrikes against Iranian command centers, air defenses, and missile launchers.
What did Trump claim about China and voter files?
Trump claimed China compromised 220 million American voter files, including names and addresses, and accused the CIA and NSA of withholding reports from his briefings.
How did Congress respond to the Iran war?
Senate Democrats unanimously blocked debate on the $1.15 trillion National Defense Authorization Act in a 50-46 vote, calling it a 'permission slip' for an unauthorized Iran war.
What is the current US gas price?
AAA reported the national average for regular gasoline at $4 a gallon on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate rising to $82 a barrel and Brent crude above $90.
What was the outcome of Trump's July 16 address?
Trump's address alleged Chinese election interference and demanded the SAVE America Act, but declassified documents showed no evidence of altered votes, and CNN, ABC, and NBC declined to carry it live.