A Politico poll conducted July 12-15 among 2,061 US adults found that roughly 3 in 5 Americans overestimate the rise in local gas prices, with nearly a quarter believing prices increased by $3 or more. The actual average price is around $4, up from $3 before the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated. The survey highlights public misperception as fighting in the Middle East, including Iranian restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi rebel activity, continues to affect global oil markets. 46% of voters said gas prices could influence their vote in upcoming primaries and midterms. The survey also noted that self-identified MAGA Republicans are more likely to underestimate cost increases than other GOP voters. A separate Politico poll found support for the Iran war among President Trump’s followers has dropped by 13 points in recent weeks. White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers attributed the price increases to temporary market disruptions and stated that as the U.S. military degrades Iran's ability to attack commercial vessels, oil and gas prices will return to pre-conflict levels.

The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on nine firms and four individuals linked to Iranian billionaire Babak Zanjani, targeting his Dot One conglomerate and associated entities in Turkey, UAE, and UK. The sanctions aim to disrupt Zanjani's sanctions evasion activities, including crypto exchanges allegedly used to launder money for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The move coincides with Senate efforts to add Iran penalties to a Russia sanctions bill.

Background: Over four consecutive days in July 2025, drone attacks hit four tankers loading Kazakh crude at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk, suspending loading and halting pipeline deliveries. Kazakhstan condemned the strikes as an infringement on its economic interests. New development: The Trump administration has formally warned Ukraine to stop attacking non-Russian vessels in the Black Sea, following drone strikes that disrupted oil operations linked to US energy giant Chevron. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth and other oil industry leaders met with senior US officials to protect their operations in Kazakhstan after Ukrainian forces struck four tankers near Novorossiysk, one chartered by Chevron. The US views the CPC as a vital conduit for Kazakh oil to European markets, and the attacks have forced Kazakhstan to reduce domestic oil production due to limited storage capacity at the Novorossiysk terminal. The administration considers attacks on non-Russian vessels unacceptable, as global oil prices have risen above $100 per barrel due to supply constraints from the Middle East.

Elon Musk stated in an Economist interview that a complete Russian withdrawal from Ukraine is unrealistic and advocated for a pragmatic peace agreement. He confirmed that Russian forces obtained Starlink terminals via smuggling networks from Ukraine, and that SpaceX worked with Ukraine to implement a whitelist, which inadvertently affected some civilian users. Musk also noted Russia's development of its own satellite constellation, Rassvet, as a domestic alternative to Starlink.

Background: The Saudi-led coalition launched airstrikes on Houthi military targets in Hodeidah after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, with Houthis vowing retaliation. On July 25, 2026, Saudi air defenses intercepted two Houthi ballistic missiles targeting oil refineries in Yanbu, while the coalition struck Houthi sites in Hodeidah the previous day. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi had previously warned that Saudi oil infrastructure would become targets. Saudi Civil Defense issued warnings for Yanbu and Jizan, where a 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery is located. Social media video showed smoke rising from the Jizan refinery, and two Asia-based trading sources reported some damage at the site. The interceptions were carried out by Greek personnel operating a U.S.-made Patriot battery deployed since 2021. President Trump vowed major military punishment for Tehran and the Houthis. The Houthi naval blockade threatens oil flows bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The Saudi-led coalition said it would respond uncompromisingly. Houthi-run media reported strikes on telecommunications facilities in Hodeidah and on Kamaran Island.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is facing criticism for his perceived absence and silence on the collapse of the Iran peace agreement and escalating strikes. Analysts suggest this is a calculated political move to balance loyalty to Donald Trump with his own presidential ambitions, rather than a diplomatic choice. The analysis notes his presence at an ASEAN summit where he met his Russian counterpart to discuss Ukraine.

Background: NATO countries have adopted low-cost interceptor drones like Merops to counter Iranian Shahed drones, with Merops downing over 4,000 Russian drones in Ukraine and being integrated by allies. The US military achieved its first combat interception using the Merops system, downing an Iranian Shahed-type drone in Kuwait. The system, tested extensively in Ukraine where Ukrainian forces destroyed over 1,000 Shahed drones, costs about $15,000 per unit and uses AI to counter electronic warfare. Poland, Romania, and Lithuania have procured or plan to purchase the system. The US Army initially deployed the system to the Middle East in March, and Secretary Dan Driscoll stated that increased production could bring per-unit cost below $10,000. The deployment is part of broader integration of anti-drone technologies, including the Ukrainian-developed Sky Map platform at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. The US Army aims to scale production.

Ukraine has conducted a multi-year campaign to win over American conservative and MAGA figures, leveraging visits by influencers like Ben Shapiro and Laura Loomer, targeted information campaigns, and personal testimony. This has shifted opinion among some Republicans, with polling showing increased support for Ukraine aid. However, a split remains in the MAGA camp between pro-Russia figures like Tucker Carlson and pro-Ukraine voices, reflecting ongoing ideological divisions. The article details efforts by the Ukraine Freedom Project and others to counter Russian propaganda and build bipartisan support.

Cecilia Vega, a former 60 Minutes correspondent, said at a journalism conference that CBS News executives pressured her to insert political bias into segments, including fabricating footage of protesters attacking ICE agents. She linked the pressure to the appointment of Bari Weiss as editor-in-chief, a Trump ally with no broadcast news background, and described a climate of censorship at the network. CBS has denied the claims.

Two small businesses, Burlap & Barrel and Collective Horology, filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade challenging the Trump administration's new Section 301 tariffs on products from 60 economies, which range from 10% to 12.5% and target forced labor. The plaintiffs argue the administration failed to demonstrate how the tariffs address forced labor policies or burden U.S. commerce. The lawsuit, represented by the Liberty Justice Center, contends the tariffs unlawfully replace expired IEEPA tariffs under a different statute. A separate suit was filed by Learning Resources, a plaintiff in the earlier Supreme Court case that struck down IEEPA tariffs.

The Bolsonaro family's electoral strategy has been undermined by US trade threats and internal scandals. On July 25, 2026, Flavio Bolsonaro was formally confirmed as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate at a convention in São Paulo, receiving in-person endorsement from Argentine President Javier Milei and a video message of support from Israeli PM Netanyahu, but lacking centrist backing and a running mate. The convention highlighted the absence of key figures, including stepmother Michelle Bolsonaro, though she later accepted his apology after a public feud. He trails Lula 43% to 48% in a potential runoff. The Trump administration imposed new tariffs of up to 37.5% on Brazilian exports, effective July 24, further complicating his campaign. A Supreme Court justice ordered an investigation into Flavio's request for film financing from jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, and another justice barred him from visiting his father until after the first round of voting.

During the RIMPAC 2026 sinking exercise, the decommissioned USS Peleliu was sunk by multiple allied weapons including helicopter-launched missiles, ground-based systems, and naval aircraft. In a new development, the U.S. Navy also deployed one-way attack unmanned surface vessels (USVs) that detonated at the ship's waterline, inspired by Ukrainian tactics in the Black Sea. This marks a milestone in the Navy's push to field autonomous attack drones across air, surface, and underwater domains, advancing the Pentagon's Drone Dominance initiative.

The Harris County District Attorney's Office confirmed that a substance found in the vehicle of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo, fatally shot by ICE officers on July 7, tested negative for narcotics. The shooting has drawn criticism from the ACLU and Rep. Sylvia Garcia, who call for an independent investigation. The FBI had obtained a search warrant based on visible bags that appeared to contain methamphetamine, but tests showed they were not drugs.

Background: Péter Magyar's electoral defeat of Viktor Orbán on April 12 threatened Orbán's illiberal axis and signaled a pivot away from Russian energy dependence. Today's development: The new government is dismantling Orbán-era institutions like the Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC), which hosted MAGA celebrities such as Tucker Carlson and JD Vance. MCC's funding model, reliant on dividends from state-transferred shares in MOL and Gedeon Richter, is being dissolved, with assets returning to state control. The loss of state power and funding threatens the infrastructure that supported the MAGA-Hungary alliance, leaving its future uncertain as Fidesz officials express hope for continued ties with figures like JD Vance. Balázs Orbán, former chairman of MCC, now holds a seat in the European Parliament and vows to continue the fight. The network of think tanks and conferences that turned Budapest into a hub for the international right faces an uncertain future.

Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin subsidiary, completed initial ground and flight testing of its Nomad 100 uncrewed aerial system under DARPA's EVADE programme. The drone uses rotor blown wing architecture for VTOL and fixed-wing flight, and is designed for crewed-uncrewed teaming in contested environments. The MATRIX autonomous technology, with over 1,000 flight hours, underpins the system.