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Today 13 July Briefing Read full brief

Erdoğan hosted the alliance in his own palace and left with a promise instead of a plane

Türkiye hosted NATO's 36th summit in Erdoğan's palace and left holding promises: Trump withheld the F-35, and the Iran ceasefire collapsed as the alliance met. Days later prosecutors ordered 968 Gülenist detentions across all 81 provinces and raided CHP-run Çankaya, arresting Ankara's district mayor at the airport, while a GENAR poll put the AK Party eight points clear at 36.2%. Ankara takes what it can take, and waits for what must be given.

Key Indicators
Full catalog · 18

Upcoming

22 key official events ahead
July 2026
Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (July)

Seventh of eight 2026 MPC meetings. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.

August 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (July data)

Monthly CPI print for July. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2026-III

Third of the CBRT's four quarterly Inflation Reports for 2026, presented at a Governor's briefing. Updates the bank's inflation forecasts and outlook, closely watched for any revision to the year-end inflation projection.

Statistics
TÜİK Labour Force Statistics release (July data)

Monthly unemployment and employment data for July, released in the mid-month window (around the 15th) at 10:00 Ankara time.

September 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Q2 2026 GDP release

Second-quarter gross domestic product print, the headline growth reading. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly two months after the quarter ends; the Q2 release lands around 1 September.

Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (August data)

Monthly CPI print for August. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (September)

Eighth scheduled 2026 MPC meeting (counting from January). Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.

October 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (September data)

Monthly CPI print for September; the 3rd falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (October)

Penultimate 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time.

November 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (October data)

Monthly CPI print for October. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2026-IV

Final quarterly Inflation Report of 2026, presented at a Governor's briefing. Sets out the bank's updated inflation forecasts heading into 2027.

Statistics
TÜİK Labour Force Statistics release (October data)

Monthly unemployment and employment data for October, released in the mid-month window (15th falls on a weekend, shifting to the next working day) at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Financial Stability Report (November)

Second of the CBRT's two semi-annual Financial Stability Reports for 2026, assessing risks in the banking system, credit, FX and external balances.

December 2026
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (November data)

Monthly CPI print for November. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (December)

Final 2026 MPC meeting. Policy-rate decision and statement published at 14:00 Ankara time; the last rate-setting decision of the year.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy text for 2027

Annual monetary-policy framework document for the coming year, which also publishes the full 2027 schedule of MPC meeting and report dates. Sets out the inflation target and policy approach for 2027.

Statistics
TÜİK Q3 2026 GDP release

Third-quarter gross domestic product print. TÜİK publishes quarterly GDP roughly 80 days after the quarter ends; the Q3 release lands in late December. (provisional date pending TÜİK release calendar)

January 2027
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (December data)

Monthly CPI print for December and the full-year 2026 inflation figure; 3 January falls on a weekend so the release shifts to the first working day. Published at 10:00 Ankara time.

Central Bank
CBRT Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision (January)

First MPC meeting of 2027, expected in the fourth week of January in line with the CBRT's usual cadence. (provisional date; the official 2027 schedule is published with the December 2026 monetary-policy text)

February 2027
Statistics
TÜİK Consumer Price Index release (January 2027 data)

Monthly CPI print for January 2027. Released around the 3rd of the month at 10:00 Ankara time. (provisional; based on TÜİK's standard ~3rd-of-month cadence)

Central Bank
CBRT Inflation Report 2027-I

First quarterly Inflation Report of 2027, presented at a Governor's briefing with updated inflation forecasts. (provisional date; the 2026-I report was published on 12 February 2026 and the exact 2027 date is confirmed with the December 2026 schedule)

April 2027
Election
Turkish constitutional referendum (potential)

AKP signals a possible referendum on a new constitution, linked to the renewed Kurdish peace process and a potential reset of presidential term limits. Targeted for autumn 2026 or, more likely, spring 2027. (provisional; no official date called, exact date is speculative)

Turkey

Recent events

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tr48

Turkey orders nearly 1,000 arrests ahead of coup anniversary

Turkish authorities have ordered the arrest of nearly 1,000 people with alleged ties to the Gülen movement, days before the tenth anniversary of the failed 2016 military coup. Justice Minister Akin Gürlek and Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi described the operation as a major purge targeting a 'treacherous network' threatening the state. The crackdown continues the pattern of mass arrests and dismissals that followed the coup attempt, which President Erdoğan used to consolidate power.

Show summary

Turkish authorities have ordered the arrest of nearly 1,000 people with alleged ties to the Gülen movement, days before the tenth anniversary of the failed 2016 military coup. Justice Minister Akin Gürlek and Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi described the operation as a major purge targeting a 'treacherous network' threatening the state. The crackdown continues the pattern of mass arrests and dismissals that followed the coup attempt, which President Erdoğan used to consolidate power.

tr48

Türkiye launches nationwide FETÖ sweep, seeks 968 suspects across all 81 provinces

Background: Turkish authorities have been conducting ongoing operations against the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), detaining 24 suspects across 11 provinces in May 2026. Today, on July 13, 2026, Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek announced a massive nationwide operation across all 81 provinces targeting 968 suspected FETÖ members, ahead of the 10th anniversary of the 2016 coup attempt. The provinces with the largest number of suspects are Ankara, Izmir, and Istanbul. The ministers stated that since 2013, proceedings have been initiated against 720,338 people, with 127,102 convicted, and that 1,065 operations were carried out in the first half of 2026, resulting in 2,451 detentions. Investigations and trials are ongoing for another 83,404 suspects.

Show summary

Background: Turkish authorities have been conducting ongoing operations against the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), detaining 24 suspects across 11 provinces in May 2026. Today, on July 13, 2026, Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek announced a massive nationwide operation across all 81 provinces targeting 968 suspected FETÖ members, ahead of the 10th anniversary of the 2016 coup attempt. The provinces with the largest number of suspects are Ankara, Izmir, and Istanbul. The ministers stated that since 2013, proceedings have been initiated against 720,338 people, with 127,102 convicted, and that 1,065 operations were carried out in the first half of 2026, resulting in 2,451 detentions. Investigations and trials are ongoing for another 83,404 suspects.

tr45

Erdoğan hails Ankara NATO summit as historic success boosting Turkey's global visibility

Background: The 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara was previously confirmed for July 7-8, with agenda items including alliance solidarity, defense industrial cooperation, Middle East security, and Black Sea security. Turkey positioned itself as a mediator and key ally amid transatlantic tensions. Today's development: After the summit, President Erdoğan praised the successful hosting of the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8, stating it increased Turkey's international visibility and showcased its state tradition. He noted positive responses from all leaders, including US President Donald Trump, and highlighted the summit's media attention. A detailed analysis published after the summit described Turkey as a key player in 'NATO 3.0', leveraging its strategic position on the Black Sea, defense-industrial capabilities, and regional influence in Syria, Libya, and the Middle East. The analysis noted that Trump signaled possible F-35 sales and sanctions relief, reflecting a shift in US-Turkish relations despite ongoing tensions over Russia, Israel, and democratic backsliding. The summit also featured a Defence Industry Forum where billions of dollars in deals were announced, and Turkey's role as a central partner in NATO's defense-industrial ecosystem was emphasized.

Show summary

Background: The 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara was previously confirmed for July 7-8, with agenda items including alliance solidarity, defense industrial cooperation, Middle East security, and Black Sea security. Turkey positioned itself as a mediator and key ally amid transatlantic tensions. Today's development: After the summit, President Erdoğan praised the successful hosting of the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8, stating it increased Turkey's international visibility and showcased its state tradition. He noted positive responses from all leaders, including US President Donald Trump, and highlighted the summit's media attention. A detailed analysis published after the summit described Turkey as a key player in 'NATO 3.0', leveraging its strategic position on the Black Sea, defense-industrial capabilities, and regional influence in Syria, Libya, and the Middle East. The analysis noted that Trump signaled possible F-35 sales and sanctions relief, reflecting a shift in US-Turkish relations despite ongoing tensions over Russia, Israel, and democratic backsliding. The summit also featured a Defence Industry Forum where billions of dollars in deals were announced, and Turkey's role as a central partner in NATO's defense-industrial ecosystem was emphasized.

tr43

Turkish Navy Frigate Makes First Port Visit to Post-Assad Syria

The Turkish navy frigate TCG Istanbul, carrying Admiral Ercüment Tatlıoğlu, visited the Syrian port of Latakia on July 13, 2026, marking the first such visit since the collapse of the Assad regime in 2024. The visit signals deepening military and diplomatic ties between Turkey and the new Syrian government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, following a comprehensive security agreement signed in 2025 and recent high-level meetings, including a meeting between Syrian President al-Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara during a NATO summit. The event also highlights Turkey's strategic interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly regarding maritime borders and hydrocarbon resources.

Show summary

The Turkish navy frigate TCG Istanbul, carrying Admiral Ercüment Tatlıoğlu, visited the Syrian port of Latakia on July 13, 2026, marking the first such visit since the collapse of the Assad regime in 2024. The visit signals deepening military and diplomatic ties between Turkey and the new Syrian government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, following a comprehensive security agreement signed in 2025 and recent high-level meetings, including a meeting between Syrian President al-Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara during a NATO summit. The event also highlights Turkey's strategic interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly regarding maritime borders and hydrocarbon resources.

tr40

Turkish singer Haluk Levent detained in money laundering probe involving earthquake charity

Turkish singer and Ahbap Association chair Haluk Levent was detained as part of an investigation into money laundering and financial irregularities, including allegations that donations collected for victims of the February 2023 earthquakes were misused. Prosecutors claim approximately TL 120 million flowed from the association to personal accounts, and that Levent placed large bets. The Financial Crimes Investigation Board (MASAK) is also examining transactions. The case involves 20 suspects and has drawn significant public attention due to the charity's role in disaster relief.

Show summary

Turkish singer and Ahbap Association chair Haluk Levent was detained as part of an investigation into money laundering and financial irregularities, including allegations that donations collected for victims of the February 2023 earthquakes were misused. Prosecutors claim approximately TL 120 million flowed from the association to personal accounts, and that Levent placed large bets. The Financial Crimes Investigation Board (MASAK) is also examining transactions. The case involves 20 suspects and has drawn significant public attention due to the charity's role in disaster relief.

tr39

Paris court upholds $1.5 billion arbitration award against Turkey over Iraq oil exports

Background: Turkey and Iraq had been negotiating a 12-month deal to resume oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline after a 2.5-year shutdown due to an arbitration dispute. The Paris Court of Appeal has now upheld the 2023 ICC arbitration award, confirming Turkey must pay Iraq approximately $1.5 billion for unauthorized oil exports from the Kurdistan Region via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline between 2014 and 2018. The ruling is final. The article argues that the real opportunity lies in using ongoing negotiations and a second arbitration case to build a broader energy partnership encompassing the Development Road Project and natural gas trade.

Show summary

Background: Turkey and Iraq had been negotiating a 12-month deal to resume oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline after a 2.5-year shutdown due to an arbitration dispute. The Paris Court of Appeal has now upheld the 2023 ICC arbitration award, confirming Turkey must pay Iraq approximately $1.5 billion for unauthorized oil exports from the Kurdistan Region via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline between 2014 and 2018. The ruling is final. The article argues that the real opportunity lies in using ongoing negotiations and a second arbitration case to build a broader energy partnership encompassing the Development Road Project and natural gas trade.

tr39

Turkey detains 25 suspects in expanded probe into 2009 helicopter crash that killed politician Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu

Turkish authorities detained 25 suspects in a sweeping operation linked to the investigation into the 2009 helicopter crash that killed former Grand Unity Party leader Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu. The probe, transferred to Ankara, alleges premeditated murder and ties to the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ). Evidence suggests suspects may have removed devices from the wreckage and hindered rescue efforts.

Show summary

Turkish authorities detained 25 suspects in a sweeping operation linked to the investigation into the 2009 helicopter crash that killed former Grand Unity Party leader Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu. The probe, transferred to Ankara, alleges premeditated murder and ties to the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ). Evidence suggests suspects may have removed devices from the wreckage and hindered rescue efforts.

tr38

MIT cyber operation decrypts ByLock messaging app, reveals FETÖ hierarchy

The Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT) conducted a cyber operation against the encrypted messaging application ByLock, gaining access to its servers in Lithuania in December 2015. The operation uncovered the internal communication network and organizational hierarchy of the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), yielding data on over 215,000 users, 17 million messages, and 4.7 million emails. This evidence became central to thousands of terrorism-related prosecutions following the July 2016 coup attempt.

Show summary

The Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT) conducted a cyber operation against the encrypted messaging application ByLock, gaining access to its servers in Lithuania in December 2015. The operation uncovered the internal communication network and organizational hierarchy of the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), yielding data on over 215,000 users, 17 million messages, and 4.7 million emails. This evidence became central to thousands of terrorism-related prosecutions following the July 2016 coup attempt.

Frequently Asked

5
What did Erdoğan achieve at the NATO summit?
Erdoğan raised Türkiye's international visibility and signed defence agreements with Canada, Romania, and Bulgaria, but failed to secure F-35 jets or CAATSA sanctions relief.
Why didn't Türkiye get the F-35 jets?
Trump did not restore Türkiye to the F-35 programme, citing a US law that bars transfer unless Türkiye no longer possesses the Russian S-400 system, which it still owns.
How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect Türkiye?
Türkiye imports 93% of its oil and 99% of its gas, so the closure raises energy costs and threatens its economy, with Brent crude potentially staying above $100 per barrel.
What domestic actions did Erdoğan take during summit week?
Erdoğan ordered detention of 968 suspected Gülenists, raided a CHP-run municipality, and continued a crackdown on opposition, including jailing Istanbul's mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.
What is the status of Türkiye's peace mediation efforts?
Türkiye claims readiness to host Russian-Ukrainian talks, but no progress has been made, and key decisions on the war are made in Paris by the Coalition of the Willing.