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Today 13 July Briefing Read full brief

Ukraine's war machine has outgrown the state that has to feed it

Ukraine had its best military week of the war and one of its worst political ones: drone crews struck 76 Russian vessels in six days, shut the Kerch Strait and pushed Russian oil refining to a 21-year low. Yet not one of the 23 ballistic missiles fired at Kyiv on 5-6 July was intercepted, a Lviv crowd overturned an army recruitment van, and Zelensky's answer was to ask parliament for 90 more days of martial law and mobilisation.

Key Indicators
Full catalog · 12

Upcoming

21 key official events ahead
July 2026
Parliament
Verkhovna Rada vote — martial law and mobilization extension

Parliament must extend martial law and general mobilization before the current 90-day period expires on 2 August 2026; the vote is taken in the days beforehand. (Provisional date within the late-July window.)

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (July)

Scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. A quarterly 'forecast' meeting accompanied by a new Inflation Report. Key rate currently 15%.

August 2026
Statistics
NBU Inflation Report (Q3) publication

Quarterly macroeconomic forecast and Inflation Report accompanying the July key-rate decision, published per the official monetary-policy publications schedule.

Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — July 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering July 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

September 2026
Parliament
Verkhovna Rada opens autumn session (Ninth convocation)

Parliament's autumn session opens on the first Tuesday of September, as fixed by Article 83 of the Constitution. First plenary sittings set the autumn legislative agenda (budget 2027, mobilization, EU-accession laws).

Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — August 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering August 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

Other
IMF Executive Board — second review of EFF arrangement

Second review of the 48-month US$8.1bn EFF approved 26 Feb 2026, expected on or after 1 September 2026; completion would release a further 2026 tranche (the programme envisages about US$3.8bn across 2026). (Provisional — exact Board date depends on the staff mission and benchmarks.)

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (September)

Scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. An interim 'risk-assessment' meeting (no new full forecast).

October 2026
Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — September 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering September 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

Parliament
Verkhovna Rada vote — martial law and mobilization extension

Next 90-day extension of martial law and general mobilization, voted before the period that began 2 August 2026 lapses (~late October / early November). (Provisional date within the window.)

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (October)

Scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. A quarterly 'forecast' meeting accompanied by a new Inflation Report.

November 2026
Statistics
NBU Inflation Report (Q4) publication

Quarterly macroeconomic forecast and Inflation Report accompanying the October key-rate decision, published per the official monetary-policy publications schedule.

Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — October 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering October 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

December 2026
Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — November 2026 inflation

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering November 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (December)

Final scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting of 2026; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. An interim 'risk-assessment' meeting closing out the year.

January 2027
Statistics
Derzhstat CPI release — December 2026 inflation (full-year)

Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering December 2026, giving full-year 2026 inflation (~9th-11th of January). Provisional exact day.

Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (January) — provisional

First NBU Board monetary policy meeting of 2027, a quarterly forecast meeting with a new Inflation Report. (Provisional — the NBU had not yet published its 2027 meeting calendar; date estimated from the usual late-January Thursday slot.)

February 2027
Parliament
Verkhovna Rada opens spring session (Ninth convocation)

Parliament's spring session opens on the first Tuesday of February per Article 83 of the Constitution. (Provisional — exact opening sitting depends on the published 2027 sessional calendar.)

March 2027
Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (March) — provisional

Interim 'risk-assessment' NBU Board monetary policy meeting. (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical mid-March Thursday slot.)

April 2027
Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (April) — provisional

Quarterly forecast NBU Board meeting with a new Inflation Report; markets watch for the start of the easing cycle (the NBU signalled no cuts before Q2 2027). (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical late-April Thursday slot.)

June 2027
Central Bank
NBU key policy rate decision (June) — provisional

Interim 'risk-assessment' NBU Board monetary policy meeting. (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical mid-June Thursday slot.)

Ukraine

Recent events

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ua48

Russian oil refining output hits 21-year low after Ukrainian strikes

Background: Ukrainian drone strikes in May 2026 forced six major Russian refineries to halt operations, causing a 16-year low in refinery runs and a 20% drop in diesel production. Today: Russia's crude oil refining output fell to 3.91 million barrels per day in July 2026, the lowest since 2005, as Ukrainian drone and missile strikes hit at least 24 of 34 large refineries in 50 attacks over 100 days. The resulting domestic fuel crisis has forced Russia to ban gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel exports, ration fuel, and seek imports from India and Kazakhstan. According to Energy Aspects data cited by Bloomberg, the output drop exceeds 60%.

Show summary

Background: Ukrainian drone strikes in May 2026 forced six major Russian refineries to halt operations, causing a 16-year low in refinery runs and a 20% drop in diesel production. Today: Russia's crude oil refining output fell to 3.91 million barrels per day in July 2026, the lowest since 2005, as Ukrainian drone and missile strikes hit at least 24 of 34 large refineries in 50 attacks over 100 days. The resulting domestic fuel crisis has forced Russia to ban gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel exports, ration fuel, and seek imports from India and Kazakhstan. According to Energy Aspects data cited by Bloomberg, the output drop exceeds 60%.

ua48

Ukrainian drones strike Kuban-Crimea power bridge and 11 energy hubs in occupied Crimea

On 12-13 July, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck the Kuban-Crimea power bridge, the main electricity supply line from mainland Russia to occupied Crimea, and 11 energy hubs in occupied territories. The operation, dubbed 'Crimean Switch Off and Air Defence Fall', also hit five air defense elements, including S-400, Pantsir-S1, Tor, and Nebo-U systems. On the night of July 13, Ukrainian Defense Forces additionally struck a Russian Nebo-U radar station and an S-400 surface-to-air missile system in the Kerch area of Crimea, along with multiple vessels in the Sea of Azov, including seven tankers, five dry cargo ships, two tugs, and one ferry. The tankers are used to transport Russian oil and petroleum products in circumvention of international sanctions, while the ferries support military logistics and cargo transportation for the Russian Armed Forces. The strikes have worsened electricity shortages in Crimea, with regions regularly experiencing prolonged blackouts. Russia has declared a regional state of emergency in Crimea and Sevastopol. The extent of the damage is being clarified.

Show summary

On 12-13 July, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck the Kuban-Crimea power bridge, the main electricity supply line from mainland Russia to occupied Crimea, and 11 energy hubs in occupied territories. The operation, dubbed 'Crimean Switch Off and Air Defence Fall', also hit five air defense elements, including S-400, Pantsir-S1, Tor, and Nebo-U systems. On the night of July 13, Ukrainian Defense Forces additionally struck a Russian Nebo-U radar station and an S-400 surface-to-air missile system in the Kerch area of Crimea, along with multiple vessels in the Sea of Azov, including seven tankers, five dry cargo ships, two tugs, and one ferry. The tankers are used to transport Russian oil and petroleum products in circumvention of international sanctions, while the ferries support military logistics and cargo transportation for the Russian Armed Forces. The strikes have worsened electricity shortages in Crimea, with regions regularly experiencing prolonged blackouts. Russia has declared a regional state of emergency in Crimea and Sevastopol. The extent of the damage is being clarified.

ua46

Ukrainian drone strike kills three near Moscow; Kremlin propagandists celebrate Lindsey Graham's death

A Ukrainian drone attack on the village of Pionersky in the Moscow region killed three people and injured several others, marking one of the deadliest strikes near the capital. Russia's Investigative Committee opened a terrorism case. Kremlin propagandists celebrated the death of US Senator Lindsey Graham, who died shortly after returning from Kyiv. President Trump, during a visit to Ankara, supported Ukrainian strikes and hinted at Patriot missile licenses for Kyiv, unsettling the Kremlin.

Show summary

A Ukrainian drone attack on the village of Pionersky in the Moscow region killed three people and injured several others, marking one of the deadliest strikes near the capital. Russia's Investigative Committee opened a terrorism case. Kremlin propagandists celebrated the death of US Senator Lindsey Graham, who died shortly after returning from Kyiv. President Trump, during a visit to Ankara, supported Ukrainian strikes and hinted at Patriot missile licenses for Kyiv, unsettling the Kremlin.

ua46

Russian strike on Odesa port kills five crew members, injures ten

On July 13, Russian forces attacked port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, striking a Togo-flagged merchant vessel unloading mineral fertilizers. The strike damaged the ship's superstructure and caused a fire, initially killing three crew members and injuring five others. During firefighting efforts, two more bodies were found, raising the death toll to five crew members, with a total of ten injured. Port infrastructure and civilian facilities were also damaged. The Odesa Oblast Prosecutor's Office opened a war crimes investigation under Article 438.2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine. Local officials denounced the attack as a deliberate act against global food security and civilian shipping. The attack is part of an intensified Russian campaign against civilian shipping in the Black Sea, which Ukraine says has hit 59 merchant vessels since 2022.

Show summary

On July 13, Russian forces attacked port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, striking a Togo-flagged merchant vessel unloading mineral fertilizers. The strike damaged the ship's superstructure and caused a fire, initially killing three crew members and injuring five others. During firefighting efforts, two more bodies were found, raising the death toll to five crew members, with a total of ten injured. Port infrastructure and civilian facilities were also damaged. The Odesa Oblast Prosecutor's Office opened a war crimes investigation under Article 438.2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine. Local officials denounced the attack as a deliberate act against global food security and civilian shipping. The attack is part of an intensified Russian campaign against civilian shipping in the Black Sea, which Ukraine says has hit 59 merchant vessels since 2022.

ua44

Zelensky proposes extending martial law and mobilization in Ukraine by 90 days

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted draft laws to the Verkhovna Rada to extend martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days, until October 31, 2026. The current extension was set to expire on August 2, 2026. The texts of the bills approving the presidential decrees have not yet been published on the parliament's website. Martial law and general mobilization have been in effect since February 24, 2022, reflecting the ongoing state of war with Russia.

Show summary

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted draft laws to the Verkhovna Rada to extend martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days, until October 31, 2026. The current extension was set to expire on August 2, 2026. The texts of the bills approving the presidential decrees have not yet been published on the parliament's website. Martial law and general mobilization have been in effect since February 24, 2022, reflecting the ongoing state of war with Russia.

ua44

Ukraine conducts first combat mission deploying armed ground robot from sea drone on Kinburn Spit

Ukraine's 123rd Separate Territorial Defense Brigade executed the world's first known combat operation in which an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) transported and deployed an armed uncrewed ground vehicle (UGV) on the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv region. The mission, led by Col. Oleg Makukha and involving the 1st Unmanned Systems Battalion under Maj. Denys Gipik, used a Rys-family UGV armed with a 7.62mm machine gun. The USV beached itself, lowered a ramp, and the UGV drove ashore to engage targets before the USV departed. This milestone demonstrates Ukraine's rapid innovation in uncrewed systems to reduce troop exposure and marks a new phase in robotic amphibious warfare.

Show summary

Ukraine's 123rd Separate Territorial Defense Brigade executed the world's first known combat operation in which an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) transported and deployed an armed uncrewed ground vehicle (UGV) on the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv region. The mission, led by Col. Oleg Makukha and involving the 1st Unmanned Systems Battalion under Maj. Denys Gipik, used a Rys-family UGV armed with a 7.62mm machine gun. The USV beached itself, lowered a ramp, and the UGV drove ashore to engage targets before the USV departed. This milestone demonstrates Ukraine's rapid innovation in uncrewed systems to reduce troop exposure and marks a new phase in robotic amphibious warfare.

ua43

Zelensky says stronger anti-ballistic defenses could push Putin to negotiate

Background: Ukrainian President Zelensky has been urging European partners to strengthen air defenses amid a global shortage of anti-ballistic systems. In a new statement, Zelensky said that sufficient anti-ballistic capabilities are essential to ending Russia's war, as they would remove Putin's last argument. He thanked France for hosting the first meeting of the European Anti-Ballistic Coalition and highlighted the FREYJA joint system as a supplement to existing defenses.

Show summary

Background: Ukrainian President Zelensky has been urging European partners to strengthen air defenses amid a global shortage of anti-ballistic systems. In a new statement, Zelensky said that sufficient anti-ballistic capabilities are essential to ending Russia's war, as they would remove Putin's last argument. He thanked France for hosting the first meeting of the European Anti-Ballistic Coalition and highlighted the FREYJA joint system as a supplement to existing defenses.

ua41

Ukraine Establishes Joint Rapid Reaction Forces from Most Combat-Capable Units

Ukraine's General Staff announced the creation of a new Joint Rapid Reaction Forces (JRRF) branch within the Ground Forces, composed of the most combat-capable units with offensive experience. The JRRF will be tasked with rapid response, offensive operations, and stabilizing critical front-line sectors, integrating assault troops, unmanned systems, artillery, and ground robotics under a unified command led by Hero of Ukraine Dmytro Voloshyn. This restructuring aims to enhance Ukraine's offensive potential and operational flexibility amid the ongoing war with Russia.

Show summary

Ukraine's General Staff announced the creation of a new Joint Rapid Reaction Forces (JRRF) branch within the Ground Forces, composed of the most combat-capable units with offensive experience. The JRRF will be tasked with rapid response, offensive operations, and stabilizing critical front-line sectors, integrating assault troops, unmanned systems, artillery, and ground robotics under a unified command led by Hero of Ukraine Dmytro Voloshyn. This restructuring aims to enhance Ukraine's offensive potential and operational flexibility amid the ongoing war with Russia.

Frequently Asked

5
What did Ukraine's drone strikes achieve in July 2026?
Ukraine's drone crews hit 76 vessels in the Sea of Azov, including 21 tankers in one night, and struck 24 of Russia's 34 large refineries, disabling 43% of refining capacity. Russian wheat exports and refinery output dropped significantly.
Why is Ukraine facing a mobilization crisis?
Roughly two million men are wanted for registration violations, and 200,000 soldiers have deserted since 2022. A crowd in Lviv overturned a recruitment vehicle, reflecting deep distrust in the state's conscription system.
What is the significance of the Patriot interceptor license?
The US granted Ukraine a license to build PAC-3 interceptors, but Lockheed Martin has not signed, and production will take at least a year. Ukraine needs 2,000 interceptors annually but global production is only 500-600.
How did Russia respond to Ukraine's strikes?
Russia hit a grain ship in Odesa, killing five crew, and damaged Ukrainian grain terminals. Moscow can move grain by rail, while Ukraine's sea corridor is vital for its budget.
What is the key date for Ukraine's political future?
October 31, 2026, when martial law lapses and the mobilization question returns. Zelensky extended martial law and general mobilization for 90 days until that date.