Background: Ukrainian President Zelensky previously warned that Russia is preparing additional mobilization to compensate for heavy losses. Now, Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, states that Russia plans to call up 500,000 people this fall, with some deployed within two weeks to plug front-line gaps and others trained for a month for a potential new front. He cites Russia's failure to meet contract recruitment targets and high losses as reasons for the forecast. Kovalenko says Russian officials Sergei Kiriyenko and Valery Gerasimov have assured Putin the mobilization would help defeat Ukraine, but he believes they are mistaken. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reports that Russia signed only 195,000 military contracts against a target of 204,500, while losing 196,700 troops so far in 2026. Andriy Chernyak of Ukraine's Military Intelligence states that the Kremlin suppresses public discussion of mobilization ahead of the State Duma elections but that the probability of mobilization remains high post-election.

The Ukrainian 425th 'Skelia' Separate Assault Regiment claims to have cleared the city of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast of Russian forces, posting footage of strikes on Russian positions and Ukrainian soldiers raising the national flag. The claim counters a Russian assertion by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on 3 July that the city had been fully taken. Kostiantynivka is the southern gate of Ukraine's 'fortress belt'—a chain of cities including Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk—and its capture is central to Putin's goal of occupying all of the Donbas. The battle has been grinding, with Russia advancing at about 50 meters per day, one of the slowest rates in modern war. Meanwhile, Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation warns Russia may call up 500,000 troops this fall, with some thrown into battle within two weeks.

Ukraine has intensified drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, including the Omsk and Salavat complexes, as part of a 'long-range sanctions' campaign to degrade Russia's war economy. The EU has failed to agree on a 21st sanctions package, with divisions over LNG and maritime services. Kyiv calls for Europe to complement its military strikes with stronger economic measures.

Russian forces launched a series of strikes across Kharkiv, Sumy, Kherson, Chernihiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions using missiles, guided bombs, drones, and MLRS, killing at least four civilians and injuring dozens. In Kharkiv and its suburbs, attacks hit residential areas, a postal terminal, and infrastructure, killing three and injuring 20. In Izium, a drone strike injured 17. Guided bombs struck Sumy (three injured) and Bilozerka in Kherson (one killed, four injured, over 20 buildings damaged). A drone hit a passenger train in Zaporizhzhia, injuring a railway worker. In Chernihiv, a drone struck a family home, injuring five. These attacks occurred hours after a ballistic missile barrage on Kyiv.

A sanctioned Russian shadow fleet tanker, the Caroline Bezengi, is leaking oil in a marine conservation area off Oman, confirmed by satellite imagery from July 2-13. The vessel loaded oil at Novorossiysk and last broadcast its location on June 11 near Yemen, having experienced operational difficulties off Yemen in early June. Three independent experts identified the spill. Separately, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck 13 shadow fleet vessels in the Black and Azov Seas on July 18, bringing the total to 172 since July 6. The operation targets feeder vessels to paralyze logistics without causing spills.

Background: Russia has been adapting its Shahed drone campaign by fitting electronic-warfare systems, scaling jet-powered Geran-3 and Geran-4 variants, and shifting attacks toward border targets as Ukrainian interception rates rose to 95%. Now, Ukrainian drone and EW expert Serhii Beskrestnov reports that Russia is increasingly using single Shahed drones flown at altitudes as low as 22 meters under manual control, rather than mass swarms, to evade Ukraine's high interception rates (92-96%). This tactic was previously used in an assassination attempt on Beskrestnov in April. The shift follows Russia's earlier innovations of jet-powered Geran variants and EW additions.

Background: Ukraine previously installed over 1,170 km of anti-drone protection on frontline logistics routes by April 2025, with construction pace doubling to 8.5 km per day. As of May 2026, Ukraine had built 822 km of anti-drone protection since the start of the year. In a new development, Ukraine's State Special Transport Service has constructed 1,066 km of anti-drone netting along key logistics routes since early 2026, with the pace reaching 9.2 km per day in June. Kherson Oblast alone accounted for 207 km. Ukraine aims to cover 4,000 km by end of 2026. Ground robots have conducted over 66,000 logistics and evacuation missions in the first half of 2026. Restoration work has covered 369.6 km of roads since April, with 27 sections fully complete.

Russian forces carried out a double-tap strike on a passenger train in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, hitting the locomotive and carriages. All passengers and staff were evacuated safely due to early warning systems. Ukrainian officials condemned the deliberate targeting of civilian rail infrastructure, noting over 1,200 strikes on railways in 2025 and 40 railway workers killed since 2022. The double-tap tactic, where a second strike follows the first to maximize harm to responders, has been documented by Ukrainian prosecutors in thousands of attacks on civilians. Ukrzaliznytsia has installed over 800 mobile blast shelters at junctions and depots to protect crews.