Quarterly macroeconomic forecast and Inflation Report accompanying the July key-rate decision, published per the official monetary-policy publications schedule.
Upcoming
19 key official events aheadMonthly Consumer Price Index release covering July 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.
Parliament's autumn session opens on the first Tuesday of September, as fixed by Article 83 of the Constitution. First plenary sittings set the autumn legislative agenda (budget 2027, mobilization, EU-accession laws).
Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering August 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.
Second review of the 48-month US$8.1bn EFF approved 26 Feb 2026, expected on or after 1 September 2026; completion would release a further 2026 tranche (the programme envisages about US$3.8bn across 2026). (Provisional — exact Board date depends on the staff mission and benchmarks.)
Scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. An interim 'risk-assessment' meeting (no new full forecast).
Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering September 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.
Next 90-day extension of martial law and general mobilization, voted before the period that began 2 August 2026 lapses (~late October / early November). (Provisional date within the window.)
Scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. A quarterly 'forecast' meeting accompanied by a new Inflation Report.
Quarterly macroeconomic forecast and Inflation Report accompanying the October key-rate decision, published per the official monetary-policy publications schedule.
Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering October 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.
Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering November 2026 (~9th-10th of the month). Provisional exact day.
Final scheduled NBU Board monetary policy meeting of 2026; decision and press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time. An interim 'risk-assessment' meeting closing out the year.
Monthly Consumer Price Index release covering December 2026, giving full-year 2026 inflation (~9th-11th of January). Provisional exact day.
First NBU Board monetary policy meeting of 2027, a quarterly forecast meeting with a new Inflation Report. (Provisional — the NBU had not yet published its 2027 meeting calendar; date estimated from the usual late-January Thursday slot.)
Parliament's spring session opens on the first Tuesday of February per Article 83 of the Constitution. (Provisional — exact opening sitting depends on the published 2027 sessional calendar.)
Interim 'risk-assessment' NBU Board monetary policy meeting. (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical mid-March Thursday slot.)
Quarterly forecast NBU Board meeting with a new Inflation Report; markets watch for the start of the easing cycle (the NBU signalled no cuts before Q2 2027). (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical late-April Thursday slot.)
Interim 'risk-assessment' NBU Board monetary policy meeting. (Provisional — 2027 calendar not yet published; date estimated from the typical mid-June Thursday slot.)
Recent events
ua50Russian Kh-101 missile crashes in Poland during massive strike on Ukraine
A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile violated Polish airspace and crashed near Tarnawa-Kolonia in Lublin Voivodeship during a massive Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine on July 30. Poland scrambled F-16s and was prepared to shoot the missile down. The incident, confirmed by Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk, marks a serious violation of NATO territory and has heightened concerns about the war spilling over into alliance territory. The same attack killed at least eight civilians in Ukraine, including a family in Radushne, and involved 74 missiles and 284 drones. NATO condemned the incursion as a reckless act, and Poland is considering providing additional Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
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Russian Kh-101 missile crashes in Poland during massive strike on Ukraine
A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile violated Polish airspace and crashed near Tarnawa-Kolonia in Lublin Voivodeship during a massive Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine on July 30. Poland scrambled F-16s and was prepared to shoot the missile down. The incident, confirmed by Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk, marks a serious violation of NATO territory and has heightened concerns about the war spilling over into alliance territory. The same attack killed at least eight civilians in Ukraine, including a family in Radushne, and involved 74 missiles and 284 drones. NATO condemned the incursion as a reckless act, and Poland is considering providing additional Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile violated Polish airspace and crashed near Tarnawa-Kolonia in Lublin Voivodeship during a massive Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine on July 30. Poland scrambled F-16s and was prepared to shoot the missile down. The incident, confirmed by Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk, marks a serious violation of NATO territory and has heightened concerns about the war spilling over into alliance territory. The same attack killed at least eight civilians in Ukraine, including a family in Radushne, and involved 74 missiles and 284 drones. NATO condemned the incursion as a reckless act, and Poland is considering providing additional Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
ua48Russia's mass strike kills family in Radushne, missile enters Poland; Ukraine orders shelter inspections and EU releases new defense funds
On day 1618 of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia launched a mass strike that killed a family in Radushne, with preliminary evidence suggesting a North Korean missile was used. A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile flew approximately 95 km into Poland before crashing, prompting Poland to consider deploying more Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Ukraine ordered nationwide bomb shelter inspections amid rising ballistic missile threats. The EU released €3.47 billion for Ukraine's defense, and the US Senate advanced a sanctions bill targeting Russian oil. Ukraine also struck Russian naval bases in Crimea, including a drone hangar and a jamming station, and continued its drone campaign against Russian logistics and refineries.
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Russia's mass strike kills family in Radushne, missile enters Poland; Ukraine orders shelter inspections and EU releases new defense funds
On day 1618 of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia launched a mass strike that killed a family in Radushne, with preliminary evidence suggesting a North Korean missile was used. A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile flew approximately 95 km into Poland before crashing, prompting Poland to consider deploying more Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Ukraine ordered nationwide bomb shelter inspections amid rising ballistic missile threats. The EU released €3.47 billion for Ukraine's defense, and the US Senate advanced a sanctions bill targeting Russian oil. Ukraine also struck Russian naval bases in Crimea, including a drone hangar and a jamming station, and continued its drone campaign against Russian logistics and refineries.
On day 1618 of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia launched a mass strike that killed a family in Radushne, with preliminary evidence suggesting a North Korean missile was used. A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile flew approximately 95 km into Poland before crashing, prompting Poland to consider deploying more Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Ukraine ordered nationwide bomb shelter inspections amid rising ballistic missile threats. The EU released €3.47 billion for Ukraine's defense, and the US Senate advanced a sanctions bill targeting Russian oil. Ukraine also struck Russian naval bases in Crimea, including a drone hangar and a jamming station, and continued its drone campaign against Russian logistics and refineries.
ua43Ukraine orders nationwide bomb shelter inspection after Russian ballistic missile attack
Ukraine's Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi ordered an urgent nationwide inspection of all civilian bomb shelters following a Russian ballistic missile attack that killed at least eight people and injured dozens. The order requires authorities to ensure shelters are accessible even before official air raid alerts, given the reduced warning times from ballistic missiles. During the attack, over 56,000 people took refuge in Kyiv's metro stations. The move comes as Ukraine continues to press partners for additional Patriot interceptors to counter Russia's ballistic missile campaign.
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Ukraine orders nationwide bomb shelter inspection after Russian ballistic missile attack
Ukraine's Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi ordered an urgent nationwide inspection of all civilian bomb shelters following a Russian ballistic missile attack that killed at least eight people and injured dozens. The order requires authorities to ensure shelters are accessible even before official air raid alerts, given the reduced warning times from ballistic missiles. During the attack, over 56,000 people took refuge in Kyiv's metro stations. The move comes as Ukraine continues to press partners for additional Patriot interceptors to counter Russia's ballistic missile campaign.
Ukraine's Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi ordered an urgent nationwide inspection of all civilian bomb shelters following a Russian ballistic missile attack that killed at least eight people and injured dozens. The order requires authorities to ensure shelters are accessible even before official air raid alerts, given the reduced warning times from ballistic missiles. During the attack, over 56,000 people took refuge in Kyiv's metro stations. The move comes as Ukraine continues to press partners for additional Patriot interceptors to counter Russia's ballistic missile campaign.
ua40Zelenskyy announces asymmetric measures to counter Russian ballistic missile campaign
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on July 30 that Ukraine is preparing 'asymmetric measures' and technological solutions to counter Russia's escalating ballistic missile attacks, following a high-level security meeting. The announcement came after a large-scale Russian attack in which only one of nine ballistic missiles was intercepted. Zelenskyy discussed frontline updates, General Staff reforms, and efforts to secure more air defense missiles from European partners. The measures aim to address the growing challenge posed by Russia's reliance on ballistic weapons, which have proven difficult to intercept with current defenses.
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Zelenskyy announces asymmetric measures to counter Russian ballistic missile campaign
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on July 30 that Ukraine is preparing 'asymmetric measures' and technological solutions to counter Russia's escalating ballistic missile attacks, following a high-level security meeting. The announcement came after a large-scale Russian attack in which only one of nine ballistic missiles was intercepted. Zelenskyy discussed frontline updates, General Staff reforms, and efforts to secure more air defense missiles from European partners. The measures aim to address the growing challenge posed by Russia's reliance on ballistic weapons, which have proven difficult to intercept with current defenses.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on July 30 that Ukraine is preparing 'asymmetric measures' and technological solutions to counter Russia's escalating ballistic missile attacks, following a high-level security meeting. The announcement came after a large-scale Russian attack in which only one of nine ballistic missiles was intercepted. Zelenskyy discussed frontline updates, General Staff reforms, and efforts to secure more air defense missiles from European partners. The measures aim to address the growing challenge posed by Russia's reliance on ballistic weapons, which have proven difficult to intercept with current defenses.
ua39Kerch Bridge Temporarily Closed as Explosions Reported Across Occupied Crimea
On the night of July 31–August 1, 2026, Russian occupation authorities temporarily closed the Kerch Bridge to road traffic from 12:29 a.m. to 2:53 a.m. Kyiv time after explosions were reported across occupied Crimea and air defenses opened fire over Sevastopol. Residents reported loud explosions in Simferopol and Sevastopol, with car alarms triggered in some areas. Kremlin-installed Sevastopol head Mikhail Razvozhayev said Russian forces were repelling a Ukrainian drone attack, claiming five drones were downed in the Balaklava district. The incident is part of an intensified Ukrainian campaign against Russian military logistics and energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea, with Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reporting strikes on 154 energy targets between July 1 and July 27, including 18 energy hubs hit from July 25–27, 14 of which were in occupied Crimea.
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Kerch Bridge Temporarily Closed as Explosions Reported Across Occupied Crimea
On the night of July 31–August 1, 2026, Russian occupation authorities temporarily closed the Kerch Bridge to road traffic from 12:29 a.m. to 2:53 a.m. Kyiv time after explosions were reported across occupied Crimea and air defenses opened fire over Sevastopol. Residents reported loud explosions in Simferopol and Sevastopol, with car alarms triggered in some areas. Kremlin-installed Sevastopol head Mikhail Razvozhayev said Russian forces were repelling a Ukrainian drone attack, claiming five drones were downed in the Balaklava district. The incident is part of an intensified Ukrainian campaign against Russian military logistics and energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea, with Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reporting strikes on 154 energy targets between July 1 and July 27, including 18 energy hubs hit from July 25–27, 14 of which were in occupied Crimea.
On the night of July 31–August 1, 2026, Russian occupation authorities temporarily closed the Kerch Bridge to road traffic from 12:29 a.m. to 2:53 a.m. Kyiv time after explosions were reported across occupied Crimea and air defenses opened fire over Sevastopol. Residents reported loud explosions in Simferopol and Sevastopol, with car alarms triggered in some areas. Kremlin-installed Sevastopol head Mikhail Razvozhayev said Russian forces were repelling a Ukrainian drone attack, claiming five drones were downed in the Balaklava district. The incident is part of an intensified Ukrainian campaign against Russian military logistics and energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea, with Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reporting strikes on 154 energy targets between July 1 and July 27, including 18 energy hubs hit from July 25–27, 14 of which were in occupied Crimea.
ua38Ukraine's drone campaign forces scaled-down Navy Day parade, disrupts Russian logistics
Background: Russia's 2026 Victory Day parade was dramatically scaled down due to Ukrainian drone threats, highlighting Putin's weakness and his doubling down on attrition warfare. Today: Ukraine's escalating long-range drone strikes have forced Russia's Navy Day parade to be held in a courtyard with no warships, as attacks on oil refineries and Wildberries logistics hubs cause fuel shortages and disrupt supply chains. The campaign, enabled by Ukraine's booming drone industry, is bringing the war to Russian territory and increasing pressure on Putin. Ukraine's domestic drone industry now produces millions of unmanned systems annually, enabling strikes that exploit gaps in Russia's air defense network. The campaign has expanded to include logistics targets in occupied Crimea, creating a 'logistics lockdown' and bringing the war's impact to Russian civilians.
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Ukraine's drone campaign forces scaled-down Navy Day parade, disrupts Russian logistics
Background: Russia's 2026 Victory Day parade was dramatically scaled down due to Ukrainian drone threats, highlighting Putin's weakness and his doubling down on attrition warfare. Today: Ukraine's escalating long-range drone strikes have forced Russia's Navy Day parade to be held in a courtyard with no warships, as attacks on oil refineries and Wildberries logistics hubs cause fuel shortages and disrupt supply chains. The campaign, enabled by Ukraine's booming drone industry, is bringing the war to Russian territory and increasing pressure on Putin. Ukraine's domestic drone industry now produces millions of unmanned systems annually, enabling strikes that exploit gaps in Russia's air defense network. The campaign has expanded to include logistics targets in occupied Crimea, creating a 'logistics lockdown' and bringing the war's impact to Russian civilians.
Background: Russia's 2026 Victory Day parade was dramatically scaled down due to Ukrainian drone threats, highlighting Putin's weakness and his doubling down on attrition warfare. Today: Ukraine's escalating long-range drone strikes have forced Russia's Navy Day parade to be held in a courtyard with no warships, as attacks on oil refineries and Wildberries logistics hubs cause fuel shortages and disrupt supply chains. The campaign, enabled by Ukraine's booming drone industry, is bringing the war to Russian territory and increasing pressure on Putin. Ukraine's domestic drone industry now produces millions of unmanned systems annually, enabling strikes that exploit gaps in Russia's air defense network. The campaign has expanded to include logistics targets in occupied Crimea, creating a 'logistics lockdown' and bringing the war's impact to Russian civilians.
ua28Russian strikes on Sumy Oblast cause fires and injuries
Background: Russian forces have repeatedly targeted civilian areas in Sumy Oblast with guided bombs and drones, causing casualties and damage. On 30 July, a Russian drone strike on the Krolevets community injured six people, three of whom were hospitalized, and damaged buildings and vehicles. Another drone strike on the Romny community on the same day injured two women. On 31 July, four guided bomb strikes on Sumy hromada caused major fires in an industrial area with significant damage; no casualties were reported as residents took shelter.
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Russian strikes on Sumy Oblast cause fires and injuries
Background: Russian forces have repeatedly targeted civilian areas in Sumy Oblast with guided bombs and drones, causing casualties and damage. On 30 July, a Russian drone strike on the Krolevets community injured six people, three of whom were hospitalized, and damaged buildings and vehicles. Another drone strike on the Romny community on the same day injured two women. On 31 July, four guided bomb strikes on Sumy hromada caused major fires in an industrial area with significant damage; no casualties were reported as residents took shelter.
Background: Russian forces have repeatedly targeted civilian areas in Sumy Oblast with guided bombs and drones, causing casualties and damage. On 30 July, a Russian drone strike on the Krolevets community injured six people, three of whom were hospitalized, and damaged buildings and vehicles. Another drone strike on the Romny community on the same day injured two women. On 31 July, four guided bomb strikes on Sumy hromada caused major fires in an industrial area with significant damage; no casualties were reported as residents took shelter.
ua26Poland Reviews Ukraine's Concrete MiG-29-for-Drones Proposal
Background: Poland and Ukraine had resumed negotiations on exchanging MiG-29 fighter jets for Ukrainian drone technology, with Poland offering to modernize the jets if costs were covered externally. Today: Ukraine has submitted a concrete proposal to Poland detailing the drone technology it will provide in exchange for the MiG-29s, according to Polish Deputy Defence Minister Paulina Sobkowiak-Czarnecka. The proposal has been on the table for several days and is under review by Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, with a decision expected within weeks. The earlier demand for Poland to pay for modernizing the jets has been dropped, making it a straight swap. Poland has not ruled out selling the jets to Bulgaria, but negotiations with Ukraine take priority.
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Poland Reviews Ukraine's Concrete MiG-29-for-Drones Proposal
Background: Poland and Ukraine had resumed negotiations on exchanging MiG-29 fighter jets for Ukrainian drone technology, with Poland offering to modernize the jets if costs were covered externally. Today: Ukraine has submitted a concrete proposal to Poland detailing the drone technology it will provide in exchange for the MiG-29s, according to Polish Deputy Defence Minister Paulina Sobkowiak-Czarnecka. The proposal has been on the table for several days and is under review by Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, with a decision expected within weeks. The earlier demand for Poland to pay for modernizing the jets has been dropped, making it a straight swap. Poland has not ruled out selling the jets to Bulgaria, but negotiations with Ukraine take priority.
Background: Poland and Ukraine had resumed negotiations on exchanging MiG-29 fighter jets for Ukrainian drone technology, with Poland offering to modernize the jets if costs were covered externally. Today: Ukraine has submitted a concrete proposal to Poland detailing the drone technology it will provide in exchange for the MiG-29s, according to Polish Deputy Defence Minister Paulina Sobkowiak-Czarnecka. The proposal has been on the table for several days and is under review by Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, with a decision expected within weeks. The earlier demand for Poland to pay for modernizing the jets has been dropped, making it a straight swap. Poland has not ruled out selling the jets to Bulgaria, but negotiations with Ukraine take priority.