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13 May Briefing Read full brief

Trump flies to Beijing under an Iran intelligence rebuke and a fresh 6% inflation print

Trump rejected Tehran's latest peace proposals as "garbage" and called the April 8 ceasefire "on massive life support" as Energy Secretary Chris Wright told lawmakers Iran was "frighteningly close" to a nuclear weapon and a New York Times-reported assessment found Iran kept ~70% of its prewar missile stockpile; wholesale and producer-price inflation both hit 6% — the largest jump since February 2023 — on a 15.6% monthly fuel surge, with 59% of an Economist/YouGov sample saying the economy is worsening, while the Pentagon sealed 10,000-missile framework deals and a federal appeals court temporarily paused the ruling against Trump's 10% Section 122 global tariff.

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Trump Says End of Russia-Ukraine War 'Very Close' as Russia Resumes Strikes After Ceasefire Expires

US President Donald Trump said Tuesday the end of Russia's war against Ukraine is "very close," expressing confidence in a settlement as he left for China. The comment came after a US-brokered three-day ceasefire expired May 11 and Russia resumed large-scale attacks, killing at least six people in Dnipropetrovsk region. President Volodymyr Zelensky cast doubt on the claim, saying Moscow showed no intention of ending the war.

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US wholesale inflation hits 6% as Iran war drives fuel and freight costs

US wholesale inflation rose to 6% in April, driven by surging fuel and freight costs linked to the conflict with Iran. The increase marks the highest level in over a year, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve as it weighs interest rate policy. The data underscores the economic ripple effects of the ongoing military engagement in the Middle East.

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59% of Americans say economy worsening, new survey finds

Nearly 6 in 10 Americans say the economy is getting worse, according to a new Economist/YouGov survey conducted May 9-11. The survey of 1,549 respondents found 59% said the economy is worsening, while 15% said it is improving. The grim sentiment comes as the U.S. annual inflation rate hit 3.8% in April, the highest since May 2023.

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Pentagon signs framework agreements for 10,000 low-cost containerized missiles amid Iran war depletion

The Pentagon on Wednesday announced framework agreements with Anduril, CoAspire, Leidos, and Zone 5 to acquire 10,000 low-cost containerized missiles under the new Low-Cost Containerized Missiles (LCCM) program. A separate agreement with Castelion sets a minimum annual purchase of 500 Blackbeard hypersonic missiles, with the Pentagon seeking authority to buy over 12,000 over five years. The deals aim to replenish stocks heavily depleted during the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, which is currently in a ceasefire.

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Every other event tracked in United States, with a one-line preview.

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US producer prices surge 6% year-over-year in April, highest since February 2023

The US Producer Price Index rose 6% year-over-year in April 2026, the highest since February 2023, driven by a 15.6% jump in energy costs. Month-on-month, prices increased 1.4%. Core prices excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 4.4%, the highest since 2023. Transportation and warehousing prices surged 5%, indicating second-order effects from higher fuel costs. The data reduces the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with some officials warning of possible rate increases. Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a challenging economic environment.

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The US Producer Price Index rose 6% year-over-year in April 2026, the highest since February 2023, driven by a 15.6% jump in energy costs. Month-on-month, prices increased 1.4%. Core prices excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 4.4%, the highest since 2023. Transportation and warehousing prices surged 5%, indicating second-order effects from higher fuel costs. The data reduces the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with some officials warning of possible rate increases. Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a challenging economic environment.

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China gains strategic leverage over U.S. after trade war, reshaping bilateral relations

Following the 2025 trade war, China has gained strategic leverage over the United States, reshaping bilateral relations. China has established an effective veto over U.S. export controls and national security measures, while Washington has separated its diplomacy with Beijing from global alliance management. The U.S. has ceded leverage on technology protections and Taiwan, and Beijing now uses the appearance of rapprochement to undermine trust in U.S. commitments to allies. This shift may embolden Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, particularly regarding Taiwan and technology protections.

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Following the 2025 trade war, China has gained strategic leverage over the United States, reshaping bilateral relations. China has established an effective veto over U.S. export controls and national security measures, while Washington has separated its diplomacy with Beijing from global alliance management. The U.S. has ceded leverage on technology protections and Taiwan, and Beijing now uses the appearance of rapprochement to undermine trust in U.S. commitments to allies. This shift may embolden Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, particularly regarding Taiwan and technology protections.

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China gains leverage over US ahead of Trump-Xi summit amid Iran crisis

An analysis argues that China enters the upcoming Trump-Xi summit with increased leverage due to the US-Israel war on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The US is seeking China's help to resolve the standoff, while Beijing is positioned to demand concessions on Taiwan and Japan's remilitarization. China has demonstrated resilience to the Hormuz closure through stockpiling and diversified supply chains, and is now pushing for a comprehensive grand bargain that includes a halt to US hostilities against Iran and a new multipolar security architecture in the Middle East.

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An analysis argues that China enters the upcoming Trump-Xi summit with increased leverage due to the US-Israel war on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The US is seeking China's help to resolve the standoff, while Beijing is positioned to demand concessions on Taiwan and Japan's remilitarization. China has demonstrated resilience to the Hormuz closure through stockpiling and diversified supply chains, and is now pushing for a comprehensive grand bargain that includes a halt to US hostilities against Iran and a new multipolar security architecture in the Middle East.

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US Supreme Court to decide major cases on independent agencies, birthright citizenship, guns, and transgender athletes

The US Supreme Court is set to issue rulings on a packed docket of 35 remaining cases, including Trump's ability to fire independent agency heads, birthright citizenship restrictions, transgender athlete bans, gun rights, campaign finance limits, and mail-in ballot deadlines. Decisions are expected through June, with significant implications for federal power, immigration, elections, and civil rights.

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The US Supreme Court is set to issue rulings on a packed docket of 35 remaining cases, including Trump's ability to fire independent agency heads, birthright citizenship restrictions, transgender athlete bans, gun rights, campaign finance limits, and mail-in ballot deadlines. Decisions are expected through June, with significant implications for federal power, immigration, elections, and civil rights.

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China's new supply chain security rules give Beijing power to punish firms for decoupling

China has introduced Regulations on Industrial and Supply Chain Security that give Beijing broad new powers to retaliate against foreign companies that move manufacturing out of China or comply with US and EU export controls and sanctions targeting Chinese entities. The rules, introduced in April 2025, follow China's blocking of Meta's $2 billion acquisition of AI startup Manus on national security grounds. The measures are designed to deter decoupling and de-risking efforts by the West, putting multinationals, especially German automakers, in a difficult position as they face conflicting regulatory pressures from China, the US, and the EU.

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China has introduced Regulations on Industrial and Supply Chain Security that give Beijing broad new powers to retaliate against foreign companies that move manufacturing out of China or comply with US and EU export controls and sanctions targeting Chinese entities. The rules, introduced in April 2025, follow China's blocking of Meta's $2 billion acquisition of AI startup Manus on national security grounds. The measures are designed to deter decoupling and de-risking efforts by the West, putting multinationals, especially German automakers, in a difficult position as they face conflicting regulatory pressures from China, the US, and the EU.

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Indo-Pacific security dynamics shift as Trump visits China amid military drills and arms deals

The first half of May has seen heightened Indo-Pacific security activity: US-Japan Balikatan drills in the Philippines included a Tomahawk missile launch from a Typhon launcher and Type 88 missiles; Japan signed a defense cooperation agreement with Indonesia after loosening arms export restrictions; Taiwan's legislature approved $25 billion in special funding for weapons purchases; and President Trump visited China for talks with President Xi Jinping covering AI, nuclear issues, and trade. Chinese officials criticized the regional military activities, with the foreign ministry describing Japan's rearmament as a 'gray rhino charging towards peace and order.' The Trump administration's temporary shift of military focus away from the Indo-Pacific and its distancing from allies creates uncertainty. The US-China relationship is described as 'the most important relationship on the globe,' with Taiwan's status a key issue in the talks. American business executives including Nvidia's Jensen Huang, Boeing's Kelly Ortberg, and GE Aerospace's Larry Culp are expected to accompany Trump.

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The first half of May has seen heightened Indo-Pacific security activity: US-Japan Balikatan drills in the Philippines included a Tomahawk missile launch from a Typhon launcher and Type 88 missiles; Japan signed a defense cooperation agreement with Indonesia after loosening arms export restrictions; Taiwan's legislature approved $25 billion in special funding for weapons purchases; and President Trump visited China for talks with President Xi Jinping covering AI, nuclear issues, and trade. Chinese officials criticized the regional military activities, with the foreign ministry describing Japan's rearmament as a 'gray rhino charging towards peace and order.' The Trump administration's temporary shift of military focus away from the Indo-Pacific and its distancing from allies creates uncertainty. The US-China relationship is described as 'the most important relationship on the globe,' with Taiwan's status a key issue in the talks. American business executives including Nvidia's Jensen Huang, Boeing's Kelly Ortberg, and GE Aerospace's Larry Culp are expected to accompany Trump.

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Top House Democrats urge Trump to approve $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan ahead of Xi meeting

Taiwan's parliament recently passed a record special defense budget of nearly €21 billion, funding US weapons purchases and a new missile defense shield, ahead of President Trump's visit to China. The US Congress approved a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan in January, but its formal transmission by the president was delayed. Top House Democrats on national security committees urged President Trump to approve the sale, warning that delays undermine cross-Strait deterrence and that China should not influence U.S. Taiwan policy. The sale includes Patriot interceptor missiles and anti-drone equipment. Trump stated that discussing arms sales to Taiwan will be on the agenda during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

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Taiwan's parliament recently passed a record special defense budget of nearly €21 billion, funding US weapons purchases and a new missile defense shield, ahead of President Trump's visit to China. The US Congress approved a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan in January, but its formal transmission by the president was delayed. Top House Democrats on national security committees urged President Trump to approve the sale, warning that delays undermine cross-Strait deterrence and that China should not influence U.S. Taiwan policy. The sale includes Patriot interceptor missiles and anti-drone equipment. Trump stated that discussing arms sales to Taiwan will be on the agenda during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

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Gordon Chang argues US AI regulations unenforceable against China as Trump arrives in Beijing

Lawyer and China hawk Gordon Chang stated that US AI regulations would be impossible to enforce against China due to Beijing's poor record of adhering to promises and the difficulty of policing AI development. He urged the US to race ahead on AI and set global standards while exempting China. His remarks coincided with President Trump's arrival in Beijing for a summit with President Xi Jinping, accompanied by tech CEOs including Elon Musk and Jensen Huang.

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Lawyer and China hawk Gordon Chang stated that US AI regulations would be impossible to enforce against China due to Beijing's poor record of adhering to promises and the difficulty of policing AI development. He urged the US to race ahead on AI and set global standards while exempting China. His remarks coincided with President Trump's arrival in Beijing for a summit with President Xi Jinping, accompanied by tech CEOs including Elon Musk and Jensen Huang.

Frequently Asked

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What did the classified intelligence assessment reveal about Iran's missile capabilities?
The assessment, reported by the New York Times, found Iran retained roughly 70% of its prewar missile stockpile and restored operational access to 30 of 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting the administration's 'decimated' framing.
How much did US wholesale and producer-price indices rise in April?
Both indices rose 6% year-over-year in April, the largest 12-month increase since February 2023, driven by a 15.6% monthly surge in fuel costs.
What is the estimated cost of the Golden Dome national missile-defense system?
A government report priced the proposed Golden Dome system at $1.3 trillion over 20 years, based on Trump's January 2025 executive order.
Why did Trump reject Tehran's latest peace proposals?
Trump called the proposals, passed via Pakistan, 'garbage' and 'totally unacceptable,' and said the April 8 ceasefire was 'on massive life support.'
What did Energy Secretary Chris Wright say about Iran's nuclear progress?
Wright told the House that Iran was 'frighteningly close' to a nuclear weapon and 'weeks away' from enriching one ton of uranium to weapons-grade.