US intelligence finds Iran retains 70% of missile stockpile despite Trump claims of decimation

Classified US intelligence assessments circulated in early May show Iran retains roughly 70% of its prewar missile stockpile and mobile launchers, according to a New York Times report published May 13. The findings directly contradict repeated claims by US President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that Iran's military had been "decimated" during the US-Israeli campaign that began on Feb. 28.

The intelligence assessments, cited by the Times, indicate Iran has restored operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply passes. Around 90% of Iran's underground missile storage and launch facilities nationwide are now "partially or fully operational," the assessments found. Sources familiar with the intelligence said Tehran can use mobile launchers inside some sites to move missiles to other locations and, in some cases, launch missiles directly from surviving launchpads. Only three missile sites along the strait were assessed as fully inaccessible.

The Pentagon said on May 13 that the cost of the war has climbed to nearly $29 billion, an increase of about $4 billion from the $25 billion estimate presented by Hegseth two weeks earlier. The US expended roughly 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles and over 1,300 Patriot interceptor missiles during the war, the Times reported. US military planners opted to seal entrances to some underground missile facilities rather than fully destroy them due to limited stocks of bunker-busting munitions and concerns over preserving weapons reserves for potential future conflicts involving China or North Korea.

White House spokesperson Olivia Wales rejected the intelligence findings. "Iran's military was crushed," Wales said, adding that anyone suggesting otherwise was "either delusional or a mouthpiece" for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Acting Pentagon press secretary Joel Valdez said: "It is so disgraceful that The New York Times and others are acting as public relations agents for the Iranian regime."

Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a House appropriations subcommittee on May 13: "We have sufficient munitions for what we're tasked to do right now."

The assessments come as the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran, which took effect April 8 through Pakistani mediation, remains under strain. Trump described the ceasefire on May 12 as on "massive life support" with "one percent chance" of surviving. Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on X: "There is no alternative but to accept the rights of the Iranian people as laid out in the 14-point proposal. Any other approach will be completely inconclusive, nothing but one failure after another."

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on May 13 that Iran is likely preparing for renewed conflict with the US and Israel, citing military drills and asset repositioning. The Tehran Province IRGC Mohammad Rasoul Ollah Unit — one of the regime's primary internal security formations — conducted an exercise on May 13 "to confront any movement of the ... enemy," state media reported. Separately, Iran has expanded the defined area of the Strait of Hormuz from the city of Jask in the east to Siri Island in the west, IRGC Navy officer Mohammad Akbarsadeh said, according to state news agency Fars.