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Global Briefing June 26

Both Wars Nearly Won, No One Can Turn Victory Into Peace

Both of the world's biggest wars edged toward their end this week — Turkish ships cleared the Strait of Hormuz after 100 days, Ukraine all but severed occupied Crimea, the US Senate voted 50-48 to halt the Iran war — yet none produced a peace. Iran called the signed memorandum a "US defeat" and Trump threatened to scrap it; Moscow met the loss of Crimea with nuclear talk as New START lay expired; and a heat-struck Europe, reactors offline and Volkswagen shedding 100,000 jobs, was in no state to backstop anyone.

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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

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fr · France

France Arms Europe as Politics Turn Against EU

France spent the week as Europe’s indispensable power — hosting the G7 at Évian, extending its nuclear umbrella to eight allies, presiding over Eurosatory, the West’s biggest arms fair. Yet a new poll put the far right’s Jordan Bardella on 35 percent for 2027, fifteen points clear, on a platform of calling the EU “obsolete” and halving France’s payments to it — and a July 7 court ruling may leave his party with no eligible candidate at all.

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de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Wins Deep War but Struggles to Hold Skies

Ukraine's bet on strangulation over storming paid off this week: a destroyed rail bridge and a regional state of emergency left occupied Crimea all but cut off, a NATO official said Russia can no longer resupply it, and drones hit refineries and defense plants deep inside Russia. On the front, Russia's offensive stalled — just 14 sq km gained in May. But the win has a ceiling: Ukraine needs about 60 Patriot interceptors a month and the Iran war has drained the US stockpile, even as Russian strikes killed civilians in Kharkiv, Sumy and Oleshky.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us49

US considers relocating Gulf military bases to Israel after Iranian retaliatory strikes

The United States is reportedly considering moving some of its military bases from the Gulf region to Israel, following extensive damage inflicted by Iranian retaliatory strikes on US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon may refurbish its base in Bahrain while winding down operations in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with two officials suggesting a possible relocation to Israel. The strikes were launched by Iran after the US-Israeli attack on Iran began on 28 February, and the US Navy base in Bahrain suffered repeated attacks between late February and June, causing damage to command headquarters and at least a dozen other buildings. The Pentagon has not acknowledged the full extent of the destruction. This development comes amid shifting US public opinion, with a Quinnipiac University poll showing 60% of Americans believe the war with Iran was not worth it, and 61% believing Iran remains likely to develop nuclear weapons despite the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.

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The United States is reportedly considering moving some of its military bases from the Gulf region to Israel, following extensive damage inflicted by Iranian retaliatory strikes on US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon may refurbish its base in Bahrain while winding down operations in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with two officials suggesting a possible relocation to Israel. The strikes were launched by Iran after the US-Israeli attack on Iran began on 28 February, and the US Navy base in Bahrain suffered repeated attacks between late February and June, causing damage to command headquarters and at least a dozen other buildings. The Pentagon has not acknowledged the full extent of the destruction. This development comes amid shifting US public opinion, with a Quinnipiac University poll showing 60% of Americans believe the war with Iran was not worth it, and 61% believing Iran remains likely to develop nuclear weapons despite the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.

fr48

Heatwave forces shutdowns at French nuclear plants, raising climate concerns

A record-breaking heatwave in France has forced state-owned utility EDF to shut down or reduce output at three nuclear reactors—Golfech, Bugey, and Nogent-sur-Seine—after river temperatures exceeded environmental limits for cooling. The disruptions, though limited to 2.2 GW of capacity, highlight growing vulnerability of France's aging nuclear fleet, which supplies about 70% of the country's electricity, to climate change. Experts warn that projected freshwater declines of up to 40% by 2050 could make it increasingly difficult to maintain both agriculture and nuclear operations. EDF plans to invest €8.7 billion by 2040 to adapt its plants, but critics argue the technology is fundamentally ill-suited to a warming world.

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A record-breaking heatwave in France has forced state-owned utility EDF to shut down or reduce output at three nuclear reactors—Golfech, Bugey, and Nogent-sur-Seine—after river temperatures exceeded environmental limits for cooling. The disruptions, though limited to 2.2 GW of capacity, highlight growing vulnerability of France's aging nuclear fleet, which supplies about 70% of the country's electricity, to climate change. Experts warn that projected freshwater declines of up to 40% by 2050 could make it increasingly difficult to maintain both agriculture and nuclear operations. EDF plans to invest €8.7 billion by 2040 to adapt its plants, but critics argue the technology is fundamentally ill-suited to a warming world.

us48

Bolton pleads guilty, Supreme Court allows TPS termination, Trump threatens NATO allies

In a series of developments in the United States, former National Security Advisor John Bolton pleaded guilty to one count of unlawful retention of classified documents, agreeing to pay over $2 million as part of a plea deal. The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the Trump administration can terminate Temporary Protected Status for Haitians and Syrians, affecting over 350,000 people. President Trump threatened to withhold support from NATO allies over their lack of backing in the Iran war. Other events include the closure of the 'Alligator Alcatraz' detention center in Florida, a federal judge halting investigations into Minnesota officials for obstructing immigration enforcement, and Trump's opening of the 250th Independence Day celebrations.

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In a series of developments in the United States, former National Security Advisor John Bolton pleaded guilty to one count of unlawful retention of classified documents, agreeing to pay over $2 million as part of a plea deal. The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the Trump administration can terminate Temporary Protected Status for Haitians and Syrians, affecting over 350,000 people. President Trump threatened to withhold support from NATO allies over their lack of backing in the Iran war. Other events include the closure of the 'Alligator Alcatraz' detention center in Florida, a federal judge halting investigations into Minnesota officials for obstructing immigration enforcement, and Trump's opening of the 250th Independence Day celebrations.

ua48

Russian hardliners urge Putin to abandon US talks and escalate Ukraine war, including nuclear option

Russian nationalist figures are calling on President Vladimir Putin to quit negotiations with the United States and escalate the war in Ukraine, including considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons, following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow and other targets. The Kremlin has so far resisted these demands but faces growing pressure from pro-war commentators who argue that diplomacy has failed. Analysts warn that nationalist pressure could raise public expectations for a broader military campaign and complicate future diplomatic decisions.

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Russian nationalist figures are calling on President Vladimir Putin to quit negotiations with the United States and escalate the war in Ukraine, including considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons, following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow and other targets. The Kremlin has so far resisted these demands but faces growing pressure from pro-war commentators who argue that diplomacy has failed. Analysts warn that nationalist pressure could raise public expectations for a broader military campaign and complicate future diplomatic decisions.

de48

Volkswagen plans up to 100,000 job cuts and closure of four German plants

Volkswagen is reportedly planning to cut up to 100,000 jobs and close four German factories, including Audi and VW sites, as part of a deep cost-cutting overhaul. The plan, double previous reductions, reflects the automaker's struggle with Chinese competition, the EV transition, and tariffs. The proposals will be discussed at a supervisory board meeting next month and have already sparked political backlash in Germany.

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Volkswagen is reportedly planning to cut up to 100,000 jobs and close four German factories, including Audi and VW sites, as part of a deep cost-cutting overhaul. The plan, double previous reductions, reflects the automaker's struggle with Chinese competition, the EV transition, and tariffs. The proposals will be discussed at a supervisory board meeting next month and have already sparked political backlash in Germany.

tr48

Turkish-owned ships safely depart Strait of Hormuz after 100-day closure

Background: The Strait of Hormuz standoff, triggered by US-Israeli attacks on Iran, stranded 20,000 seafarers and saw ship transits plummet. On June 26, 2026, 15 Turkish-owned ships with 99 personnel safely departed the region after over 100 days of closure, as confirmed by the Turkish transport minister. Three other Turkish vessels chose to remain for commercial activities.

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Background: The Strait of Hormuz standoff, triggered by US-Israeli attacks on Iran, stranded 20,000 seafarers and saw ship transits plummet. On June 26, 2026, 15 Turkish-owned ships with 99 personnel safely departed the region after over 100 days of closure, as confirmed by the Turkish transport minister. Three other Turkish vessels chose to remain for commercial activities.

fr47

France heatwave overwhelms hospitals, forces Pride march delay and school closures

A severe heatwave in France has overwhelmed hospitals, with emergency services at Paris's Hôpital européen Georges Pompidou reporting dangerously overcrowded wards, a fourfold increase in heat-related emergency visits, and a surge in cardiac arrests. Authorities banned evening alcohol sales and public consumption in Paris, postponed the annual Pride march to September, and cancelled the Solidays festival and Charléty athletics meeting. Over €130 million has been allocated to install cooling systems in schools and nurseries. At least 55 drownings have occurred since mid-June, and a three-year-old boy died in a hot car. Scientists attribute the record-breaking temperatures to human-caused climate change.

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A severe heatwave in France has overwhelmed hospitals, with emergency services at Paris's Hôpital européen Georges Pompidou reporting dangerously overcrowded wards, a fourfold increase in heat-related emergency visits, and a surge in cardiac arrests. Authorities banned evening alcohol sales and public consumption in Paris, postponed the annual Pride march to September, and cancelled the Solidays festival and Charléty athletics meeting. Over €130 million has been allocated to install cooling systems in schools and nurseries. At least 55 drownings have occurred since mid-June, and a three-year-old boy died in a hot car. Scientists attribute the record-breaking temperatures to human-caused climate change.

ua46

Russia claims downing 660 Ukrainian drones in one of Kyiv's largest long-range strikes; Ukraine intercepts 177 of 189 drones and three Iskander-M missiles

On June 25-26, 2026, Russia and Ukraine exchanged large-scale overnight airstrikes. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed its air defenses shot down 660 Ukrainian drones across 13 regions, including Moscow and occupied Crimea, in what is described as one of Kyiv's largest long-range strikes. Ukraine's Air Force reported intercepting 177 of 189 drones and three of seven Iskander-M missiles launched by Russia. Both sides reported casualties and damage: one person injured in Tula, two in Kyiv, and three in Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian strikes targeted energy infrastructure, causing fuel shortages and power cuts in Russia and Crimea. Russia denied seeking Belarusian war aid, while Ukraine accused Moscow of pressuring Belarus to join the conflict. Belarusian President Lukashenko stated Belarus has no intention of fighting Ukraine.

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On June 25-26, 2026, Russia and Ukraine exchanged large-scale overnight airstrikes. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed its air defenses shot down 660 Ukrainian drones across 13 regions, including Moscow and occupied Crimea, in what is described as one of Kyiv's largest long-range strikes. Ukraine's Air Force reported intercepting 177 of 189 drones and three of seven Iskander-M missiles launched by Russia. Both sides reported casualties and damage: one person injured in Tula, two in Kyiv, and three in Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian strikes targeted energy infrastructure, causing fuel shortages and power cuts in Russia and Crimea. Russia denied seeking Belarusian war aid, while Ukraine accused Moscow of pressuring Belarus to join the conflict. Belarusian President Lukashenko stated Belarus has no intention of fighting Ukraine.

de46

Germany: Magdeburg attacker sentenced to life, VW plans massive job cuts, AfD ban debate reignited

A German court sentenced Taleb A., a 51-year-old Saudi psychiatrist, to life imprisonment for driving a hire car through the Magdeburg Christmas market in 2024, killing six people and injuring many others; the court rejected his claim that the act was unintentional. Volkswagen reportedly plans up to 100,000 job cuts worldwide as part of a 2030 cost-cutting strategy, potentially closing four German plants. Thuringia's interior minister called for a new attempt to ban the far-right AfD party, citing an expert report that proceedings would likely succeed. Germany pushed back against EU methane rules, with Economy Minister Katherina Reiche seeking a three-year delay to avoid disruptions to gas and petroleum imports. The IAB labor market barometer fell below 100 for the first time since COVID, signaling falling employment. Two suspected supporters of the far-right group Last Wave of Defense were arrested for an attempted arson attack on an asylum shelter. An Istanbul court sentenced four defendants for the pesticide poisoning deaths of a German family. The UN World Drug Report named Germany a top European transit hub for illegal ketamine. The Berlin Philharmonic relaxed its dress code for an outdoor concert amid a heatwave.

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A German court sentenced Taleb A., a 51-year-old Saudi psychiatrist, to life imprisonment for driving a hire car through the Magdeburg Christmas market in 2024, killing six people and injuring many others; the court rejected his claim that the act was unintentional. Volkswagen reportedly plans up to 100,000 job cuts worldwide as part of a 2030 cost-cutting strategy, potentially closing four German plants. Thuringia's interior minister called for a new attempt to ban the far-right AfD party, citing an expert report that proceedings would likely succeed. Germany pushed back against EU methane rules, with Economy Minister Katherina Reiche seeking a three-year delay to avoid disruptions to gas and petroleum imports. The IAB labor market barometer fell below 100 for the first time since COVID, signaling falling employment. Two suspected supporters of the far-right group Last Wave of Defense were arrested for an attempted arson attack on an asylum shelter. An Istanbul court sentenced four defendants for the pesticide poisoning deaths of a German family. The UN World Drug Report named Germany a top European transit hub for illegal ketamine. The Berlin Philharmonic relaxed its dress code for an outdoor concert amid a heatwave.

fr45

Paris faces ice shortage as record heat wave strains emergency services

A historic heat wave in Paris, with temperatures around 40°C, has caused a shortage of ice needed by firefighters to treat heat stroke victims. City officials appealed to large food retailers for supplies, and Carrefour donated four tons of ice. Authorities restricted takeaway alcohol sales to reduce hospital pressure. The health minister reported 25 cardiac arrests in 24 hours in Paris, and drowning deaths rose to 55.

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A historic heat wave in Paris, with temperatures around 40°C, has caused a shortage of ice needed by firefighters to treat heat stroke victims. City officials appealed to large food retailers for supplies, and Carrefour donated four tons of ice. Authorities restricted takeaway alcohol sales to reduce hospital pressure. The health minister reported 25 cardiac arrests in 24 hours in Paris, and drowning deaths rose to 55.