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Global Briefing June 18

America Wins Wars by Walking Out, Leaving Europe the Bill

Donald Trump closed the Iran war on his own terms — a framework to lift every US sanction since 1979 and $300bn to help rebuild the country — and at the G7 in Evian told NATO to its face that America is leaving, ordering a six-month review of US forces in Europe and a “NATO 3.0.” But the wars are not over: Iran emerged controlling the Strait of Hormuz, Ukraine ran its largest-ever drone strike on Moscow, and Europe’s defence commissioner admits replacing the US nuclear umbrella will take a decade.

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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

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fr · France

France Arming Europe as Politics Shift Against EU

France spent the week as Europe’s indispensable power — hosting the G7 at Évian, extending its nuclear umbrella to eight allies, presiding over Eurosatory, the West’s biggest arms fair. Yet a new poll put the far right’s Jordan Bardella on 35 percent for 2027, fifteen points clear, on a platform of calling the EU “obsolete” and halving France’s payments to it — and a July 7 court ruling may leave his party with no eligible candidate at all.

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de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Offers to Freeze War by Escalating Strikes

Ukraine spent the week doing two things that only look contradictory: offering to freeze the war and fighting it harder than ever. Zelenskyy signalled he would accept halting the conflict along the current front line, and Europe lined up behind him. At the same time his long-range drones set Russia's fuel system alight, spreading petrol shortages to 25 regions. The escalation is not at odds with the peace offer — it is what gives the offer its weight. Whether Moscow ever picks it up depends less on the talks than on how dry Russia's pumps run.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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fr48

French far-right National Rally poised for potential presidential victory in 2027

France's far-right National Rally (RN), led by Jordan Bardella, holds a commanding lead in polls ahead of the April 2027 presidential election, with no candidate exceeding 17% support compared to RN's 30%+. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron cannot run again due to term limits, and Marine Le Pen is likely barred by a conviction for EU fund embezzlement. A far-right victory would mark a historic rupture for France and the EU, given France's status as a nuclear power, UN Security Council member, and EU founding member. An RN presidency could block EU aid to Ukraine, challenge EU budget rules and free movement, and potentially destabilize the eurozone through fiscal mismanagement. The outcome hinges on second-round dynamics and whether centrist candidates can unite against the far right.

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France's far-right National Rally (RN), led by Jordan Bardella, holds a commanding lead in polls ahead of the April 2027 presidential election, with no candidate exceeding 17% support compared to RN's 30%+. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron cannot run again due to term limits, and Marine Le Pen is likely barred by a conviction for EU fund embezzlement. A far-right victory would mark a historic rupture for France and the EU, given France's status as a nuclear power, UN Security Council member, and EU founding member. An RN presidency could block EU aid to Ukraine, challenge EU budget rules and free movement, and potentially destabilize the eurozone through fiscal mismanagement. The outcome hinges on second-round dynamics and whether centrist candidates can unite against the far right.

us48

US and Iran reach framework agreement to lift all sanctions

The United States and Iran have reached a framework agreement under which the US will take steps to lift all types of sanctions against Iran, including those imposed by UN Security Council resolutions, nuclear-related sanctions, and sanctions linked to terrorism, human rights, and missile programs. The agreement marks a significant shift in US policy, aiming to remove the comprehensive sanctions regime that has been in place since the 1979 hostage crisis. This development goes beyond the scope of the existing 14-point peace deal, which focused on ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the earlier memorandum that centered on a ceasefire and nuclear moratorium. The new framework addresses the full spectrum of US sanctions, signaling a potential comprehensive normalization of relations.

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The United States and Iran have reached a framework agreement under which the US will take steps to lift all types of sanctions against Iran, including those imposed by UN Security Council resolutions, nuclear-related sanctions, and sanctions linked to terrorism, human rights, and missile programs. The agreement marks a significant shift in US policy, aiming to remove the comprehensive sanctions regime that has been in place since the 1979 hostage crisis. This development goes beyond the scope of the existing 14-point peace deal, which focused on ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the earlier memorandum that centered on a ceasefire and nuclear moratorium. The new framework addresses the full spectrum of US sanctions, signaling a potential comprehensive normalization of relations.

ua48

Zelenskyy shows Trump photos of burning Lavra at G7, shifting US stance on Ukraine

At the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains on 16 June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy showed US President Donald Trump photographs of the burning Dormition Cathedral at Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, struck by a Russian missile the previous day. According to Politico, the images visibly affected Trump and were likely the final push that moved Washington toward firmer support for Ukraine. G7 leaders tailored their case to Trump's view of the war, casting Ukraine as winning. The G7 agreed to expand military support for Kyiv, including more air defense, interceptor missiles, and long-range capabilities, and backed new sanctions on Russia. Canada and Britain also announced new sanctions and aid packages. Diplomats cautioned that gains could be fragile if Trump shifts position.

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At the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains on 16 June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy showed US President Donald Trump photographs of the burning Dormition Cathedral at Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, struck by a Russian missile the previous day. According to Politico, the images visibly affected Trump and were likely the final push that moved Washington toward firmer support for Ukraine. G7 leaders tailored their case to Trump's view of the war, casting Ukraine as winning. The G7 agreed to expand military support for Kyiv, including more air defense, interceptor missiles, and long-range capabilities, and backed new sanctions on Russia. Canada and Britain also announced new sanctions and aid packages. Diplomats cautioned that gains could be fragile if Trump shifts position.

gb48

Man arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after boy injured in crocodile enclosure at UK zoo

A 30-year-old man from Norfolk was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy sustained critical injuries in a crocodile enclosure at Johnsons Zoo in Old Hurst, Cambridgeshire. Police stated the man and child were not known to each other. The boy is in stable condition at Addenbrooke's Hospital. The incident is being treated as a critical incident by police.

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A 30-year-old man from Norfolk was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a three-year-old boy sustained critical injuries in a crocodile enclosure at Johnsons Zoo in Old Hurst, Cambridgeshire. Police stated the man and child were not known to each other. The boy is in stable condition at Addenbrooke's Hospital. The incident is being treated as a critical incident by police.

ua46

Ukraine strikes Crimean railway bridge, Moscow Oil Refinery, and multiple fuel depots in coordinated logistics attack

Ukraine's General Staff reported a coordinated overnight strike on June 19-20 targeting Russian military logistics infrastructure. Ukrainian forces struck a railway bridge over the North Crimean Canal near Rozdolne in occupied Crimea and a road bridge over the Kalka River near Hranitne in Donetsk region. The Moscow Oil Refinery was hit, with at least five active fire zones reported, including damage to primary and secondary processing units and a tank farm. In Russia's Rostov region, the Gukovo oil depot was struck and set on fire. Additional strikes hit fuel depots in Mariupol and Piatypillia, a Russian command post near Soledar, and a logistics warehouse near Boikivske in Donetsk region. The General Staff also confirmed damage assessments from earlier strikes on June 13-14, including destruction of seven storage tanks at the Palkino oil pumping station in Yaroslavl region, damage to three tanks and a pipeline at the Kotovsky facility in Volgograd region, and damage to five vertical storage tanks at the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal in Krasnodar Krai. These strikes are part of Ukraine's ongoing campaign to disrupt Russian supply routes to occupied Crimea and front-line forces.

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Ukraine's General Staff reported a coordinated overnight strike on June 19-20 targeting Russian military logistics infrastructure. Ukrainian forces struck a railway bridge over the North Crimean Canal near Rozdolne in occupied Crimea and a road bridge over the Kalka River near Hranitne in Donetsk region. The Moscow Oil Refinery was hit, with at least five active fire zones reported, including damage to primary and secondary processing units and a tank farm. In Russia's Rostov region, the Gukovo oil depot was struck and set on fire. Additional strikes hit fuel depots in Mariupol and Piatypillia, a Russian command post near Soledar, and a logistics warehouse near Boikivske in Donetsk region. The General Staff also confirmed damage assessments from earlier strikes on June 13-14, including destruction of seven storage tanks at the Palkino oil pumping station in Yaroslavl region, damage to three tanks and a pipeline at the Kotovsky facility in Volgograd region, and damage to five vertical storage tanks at the Tamanneftegaz oil terminal in Krasnodar Krai. These strikes are part of Ukraine's ongoing campaign to disrupt Russian supply routes to occupied Crimea and front-line forces.

gb46

UK Border Force officer and Hong Kong trade official sentenced to 10 and 8 years for spying for China

Background: A London court convicted Bill Yuen, a senior manager at the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office, and UK Border Force officer Peter Wai under the UK National Security Act for surveilling Hong Kong dissidents in Britain. On Thursday, Judge Bobbie Cheema-Grubb sentenced Wai to 10 years and Yuen to 8 years at the Old Bailey, stating their actions threatened state sovereignty. Wai was also convicted of misconduct in public office for accessing Home Office databases to track Hong Kong dissidents. The court heard Wai messaged a former Hong Kong police superintendent, 'Will not let any cockroaches in,' and that special attention was paid to British politicians including MP Sir Iain Duncan Smith. A third man, Matthew Trickett, was found dead after being charged. The Hong Kong government dismissed the case as 'unfounded allegations and smearing.'

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Background: A London court convicted Bill Yuen, a senior manager at the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office, and UK Border Force officer Peter Wai under the UK National Security Act for surveilling Hong Kong dissidents in Britain. On Thursday, Judge Bobbie Cheema-Grubb sentenced Wai to 10 years and Yuen to 8 years at the Old Bailey, stating their actions threatened state sovereignty. Wai was also convicted of misconduct in public office for accessing Home Office databases to track Hong Kong dissidents. The court heard Wai messaged a former Hong Kong police superintendent, 'Will not let any cockroaches in,' and that special attention was paid to British politicians including MP Sir Iain Duncan Smith. A third man, Matthew Trickett, was found dead after being charged. The Hong Kong government dismissed the case as 'unfounded allegations and smearing.'

de45

Germany and Poland sign defense agreement; German ships head to Strait of Hormuz; SPD delays health reform

Germany and Poland signed a defense agreement to systematize military cooperation amid the Russian threat. German Defense Minister Pistorius announced that two German navy ships are en route to the Red Sea for a possible mine-clearing mission in the Strait of Hormuz. The SPD parliamentary group delayed the passage of a major health reform. Other developments include a call by Sahra Wagenknecht to include the AfD in Thuringia's government, an attack on an AfD politician, and a debate on cutting Germany's UN contributions after losing a Security Council seat.

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Germany and Poland signed a defense agreement to systematize military cooperation amid the Russian threat. German Defense Minister Pistorius announced that two German navy ships are en route to the Red Sea for a possible mine-clearing mission in the Strait of Hormuz. The SPD parliamentary group delayed the passage of a major health reform. Other developments include a call by Sahra Wagenknecht to include the AfD in Thuringia's government, an attack on an AfD politician, and a debate on cutting Germany's UN contributions after losing a Security Council seat.

tr45

Turkey excluded from G7 summit guest list amid trust deficit with West

Turkey was notably absent from the guest list of the G7 summit in Evian, France, while other middle powers such as India, Brazil, South Korea, Kenya, and Egypt were invited. The exclusion reflects a growing trust deficit in Western capitals due to concerns over democratic backsliding, unpredictability in foreign policy, and the S-400 crisis. Despite Turkey's strategic importance in NATO and the Ukraine war, its geopolitical power is not translating into political influence, and its democratic decline is harming its international image.

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Turkey was notably absent from the guest list of the G7 summit in Evian, France, while other middle powers such as India, Brazil, South Korea, Kenya, and Egypt were invited. The exclusion reflects a growing trust deficit in Western capitals due to concerns over democratic backsliding, unpredictability in foreign policy, and the S-400 crisis. Despite Turkey's strategic importance in NATO and the Ukraine war, its geopolitical power is not translating into political influence, and its democratic decline is harming its international image.

us44

US gas prices fall below $4 per gallon after Iran ceasefire agreement

Background: The Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove US gasoline prices to a national average of $4.39 per gallon, with prices falling as ceasefire talks progressed. New development: The national average gas price has dropped below $4 per gallon for the first time in months, reaching $3.9990, following an extended ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran aimed at restoring oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices fell to three-month lows. Diesel prices remain above $5 per gallon but have also fallen from recent highs. The economic mood among American households improved for the first time in five months, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. However, prices remain higher than pre-war levels, and the political fallout continues to affect President Trump ahead of midterm elections, with Democrats using his past comments in campaign ads. Analysts caution that the disrupted market will take time to reorient and that Gulf oil producers cannot immediately revive production.

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Background: The Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove US gasoline prices to a national average of $4.39 per gallon, with prices falling as ceasefire talks progressed. New development: The national average gas price has dropped below $4 per gallon for the first time in months, reaching $3.9990, following an extended ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran aimed at restoring oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices fell to three-month lows. Diesel prices remain above $5 per gallon but have also fallen from recent highs. The economic mood among American households improved for the first time in five months, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. However, prices remain higher than pre-war levels, and the political fallout continues to affect President Trump ahead of midterm elections, with Democrats using his past comments in campaign ads. Analysts caution that the disrupted market will take time to reorient and that Gulf oil producers cannot immediately revive production.

tr44

Turkey and Saudi Arabia lead Muslim condemnation of Israeli settler arson attacks on West Bank mosques

Foreign ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE, Qatar, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Egypt jointly condemned Israeli settler arson attacks on two mosques in the occupied West Bank villages of Jiljiliya and Mazari an-Nubani. They held Israel responsible as the occupying power. The attacks, which included graffiti from the radical Hilltop Youth group, occurred amid increased settler violence since October 2023.

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Foreign ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE, Qatar, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Egypt jointly condemned Israeli settler arson attacks on two mosques in the occupied West Bank villages of Jiljiliya and Mazari an-Nubani. They held Israel responsible as the occupying power. The attacks, which included graffiti from the radical Hilltop Youth group, occurred amid increased settler violence since October 2023.