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Global Briefing June 22

West Winning Wars, Turning on Itself Over How to End Them

The fighting in both of the world’s biggest wars finally began to stop this week: the US and Iran signed a 60-day roadmap at a Swiss resort, and a senior NATO official concluded Ukraine has cut Crimea off from Russian resupply. But the same days exposed a Western coalition splitting over the peace. António Costa’s secret outreach to Putin enraged Macron and Merz at a phone-free Brussels summit; Poland and Ukraine traded back wartime medals; and JD Vance told Israel that Trump is “your only ally left in the world.” Winning the war is turning out to be the easy part.

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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

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fr · France

France Arms Europe as Politics Turn Against EU

France spent the week as Europe’s indispensable power — hosting the G7 at Évian, extending its nuclear umbrella to eight allies, presiding over Eurosatory, the West’s biggest arms fair. Yet a new poll put the far right’s Jordan Bardella on 35 percent for 2027, fifteen points clear, on a platform of calling the EU “obsolete” and halving France’s payments to it — and a July 7 court ruling may leave his party with no eligible candidate at all.

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de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Offers to Freeze War by Escalating Strikes

Ukraine spent the week doing two things that only look contradictory: offering to freeze the war and fighting it harder than ever. Zelenskyy signalled he would accept halting the conflict along the current front line, and Europe lined up behind him. At the same time his long-range drones set Russia's fuel system alight, spreading petrol shortages to 25 regions. The escalation is not at odds with the peace offer — it is what gives the offer its weight. Whether Moscow ever picks it up depends less on the talks than on how dry Russia's pumps run.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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fr48

Europe faces second heatwave in a month with record temperatures and multiple deaths

Background: A heat dome over western Europe drove record-breaking May temperatures across the UK, France, Ireland, Spain, and Italy, with multiple deaths linked to the heatwave and UN climate chief Simon Stiell attributing the extreme heat to fossil fuel burning. New development: A second consecutive heatwave in less than a month has placed 49 of France's 96 mainland departments under red alert, with temperatures reaching 43°C in Bordeaux and 39°C in Paris. Two children aged 2 and 4 were found dead in a car in Carpentras, southern France, with heat suspected as the cause. Three elderly people died near Bordeaux due to heat-related causes, and 13 drowning deaths were reported in France. More than 1,300 schools were closed nationwide, and regional train services around Paris were reduced. Spain issued a red alert for the Basque country, with San Sebastian forecast to reach 40°C. Italy issued red alerts for 12 cities including Rome, Milan, and Florence. The UK Met Office issued a rare red warning for extreme heat in parts of England and Wales for Wednesday and Thursday. Belgium canceled some rush-hour trains due to the heat. Scientists attribute the recurring extreme heat to human-driven climate change.

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Background: A heat dome over western Europe drove record-breaking May temperatures across the UK, France, Ireland, Spain, and Italy, with multiple deaths linked to the heatwave and UN climate chief Simon Stiell attributing the extreme heat to fossil fuel burning. New development: A second consecutive heatwave in less than a month has placed 49 of France's 96 mainland departments under red alert, with temperatures reaching 43°C in Bordeaux and 39°C in Paris. Two children aged 2 and 4 were found dead in a car in Carpentras, southern France, with heat suspected as the cause. Three elderly people died near Bordeaux due to heat-related causes, and 13 drowning deaths were reported in France. More than 1,300 schools were closed nationwide, and regional train services around Paris were reduced. Spain issued a red alert for the Basque country, with San Sebastian forecast to reach 40°C. Italy issued red alerts for 12 cities including Rome, Milan, and Florence. The UK Met Office issued a rare red warning for extreme heat in parts of England and Wales for Wednesday and Thursday. Belgium canceled some rush-hour trains due to the heat. Scientists attribute the recurring extreme heat to human-driven climate change.

de46

European E5 Leaders to Meet in Berlin to Coordinate Ukraine Support

Leaders of the E5 group (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland) will meet in Berlin on Wednesday to improve coordination for supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion. The meeting follows a G7 summit where leaders agreed to increase air defense deliveries and sanctions against Russia. NATO chief Mark Rutte will join via video link. The meeting also covers preparations for the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8. Ukrainian President Zelensky has called for Europe to do more as US efforts to end the fighting have faded. EU chief Antonio Costa's office has made brief diplomatic contacts with Moscow, though some EU states are wary.

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Leaders of the E5 group (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland) will meet in Berlin on Wednesday to improve coordination for supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion. The meeting follows a G7 summit where leaders agreed to increase air defense deliveries and sanctions against Russia. NATO chief Mark Rutte will join via video link. The meeting also covers preparations for the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8. Ukrainian President Zelensky has called for Europe to do more as US efforts to end the fighting have faded. EU chief Antonio Costa's office has made brief diplomatic contacts with Moscow, though some EU states are wary.

gb46

UK issues rare red extreme heat warning as temperatures may reach 40°C

The UK Met Office issued a rare red weather warning for extreme heat covering London, parts of the Midlands, south-east Wales, and southern England from 9-21 BST on 25-26 June 2025. Temperatures could reach 40°C, close to the UK record of 40.3°C. The UK Health Security Agency issued its second-ever red heat health warning. Significant disruption is expected, including travel delays, school closures, and risks to health and life. The heatwave is part of a broader European heatwave.

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The UK Met Office issued a rare red weather warning for extreme heat covering London, parts of the Midlands, south-east Wales, and southern England from 9-21 BST on 25-26 June 2025. Temperatures could reach 40°C, close to the UK record of 40.3°C. The UK Health Security Agency issued its second-ever red heat health warning. Significant disruption is expected, including travel delays, school closures, and risks to health and life. The heatwave is part of a broader European heatwave.

ua45

Ukraine strikes Voronezh missile electronics plant and Dubna satellite center in deep Russia

On 22 June 2026, Ukraine's Air Force used high-precision air-launched cruise missiles to strike the Voronezh Semiconductor Devices Plant (VZPP-S) in Voronezh, Russia, which produces electronic components for Iskander and Kh-101 cruise missiles and Pantsir-S1 air defense systems. The attack caused a massive fire and significant damage, with Russian authorities reporting casualties. Separately, Ukrainian forces struck the Dubna satellite communications center in the Moscow region, causing heavy smoke. The strikes are part of Ukraine's ongoing campaign to degrade Russia's military-industrial capacity and reduce its ability to produce precision-guided munitions used against Ukrainian cities.

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On 22 June 2026, Ukraine's Air Force used high-precision air-launched cruise missiles to strike the Voronezh Semiconductor Devices Plant (VZPP-S) in Voronezh, Russia, which produces electronic components for Iskander and Kh-101 cruise missiles and Pantsir-S1 air defense systems. The attack caused a massive fire and significant damage, with Russian authorities reporting casualties. Separately, Ukrainian forces struck the Dubna satellite communications center in the Moscow region, causing heavy smoke. The strikes are part of Ukraine's ongoing campaign to degrade Russia's military-industrial capacity and reduce its ability to produce precision-guided munitions used against Ukrainian cities.

gb44

Former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson found guilty of child sexual offences including rape

Jeffrey Donaldson, former leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), was found guilty on 31 March 2025 of 18 sexual offences including rape, indecent assault, and gross indecency against two child victims spanning from 1985 to 2008. The jury at Newry Crown Court also found his wife Eleanor Donaldson aided and abetted the abuse, though she was deemed unfit to stand trial. Donaldson was remanded into custody pending sentencing on 25 September, with the judge indicating a lengthy prison sentence. The conviction marks a dramatic fall for a key figure in post-Brexit negotiations and Northern Ireland politics.

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Jeffrey Donaldson, former leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), was found guilty on 31 March 2025 of 18 sexual offences including rape, indecent assault, and gross indecency against two child victims spanning from 1985 to 2008. The jury at Newry Crown Court also found his wife Eleanor Donaldson aided and abetted the abuse, though she was deemed unfit to stand trial. Donaldson was remanded into custody pending sentencing on 25 September, with the judge indicating a lengthy prison sentence. The conviction marks a dramatic fall for a key figure in post-Brexit negotiations and Northern Ireland politics.

fr44

France heatwave triggers 20-30% surge in emergency calls, three elderly deaths

A severe heatwave in France has led to a 20-30% increase in emergency (Samu) calls, according to Health Minister Stéphanie Rist. The heatwave has placed 49 departments and 35 million people on red alert, caused three elderly deaths at home in Gironde, and forced the closure of 845 schools. The minister emphasized the importance of seeking early medical help for heat-related symptoms.

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A severe heatwave in France has led to a 20-30% increase in emergency (Samu) calls, according to Health Minister Stéphanie Rist. The heatwave has placed 49 departments and 35 million people on red alert, caused three elderly deaths at home in Gironde, and forced the closure of 845 schools. The minister emphasized the importance of seeking early medical help for heat-related symptoms.

ua44

Russian drone strike kills three generations of one family in Sumy Oblast

On June 22, a Russian drone struck a house in Znob-Novhorodske, Sumy Oblast, killing a 13-year-old boy, his 36-year-old father, and his 73-year-old grandmother. Three other family members—the mother, a 13-year-old sister, and a 10-year-old brother—were injured. Ukrainian prosecutors opened a war crimes investigation under Article 438 of the Criminal Code. The attack highlights the continued targeting of civilian homes in border communities near Russia.

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On June 22, a Russian drone struck a house in Znob-Novhorodske, Sumy Oblast, killing a 13-year-old boy, his 36-year-old father, and his 73-year-old grandmother. Three other family members—the mother, a 13-year-old sister, and a 10-year-old brother—were injured. Ukrainian prosecutors opened a war crimes investigation under Article 438 of the Criminal Code. The attack highlights the continued targeting of civilian homes in border communities near Russia.

de44

German industry association BDI cuts 2026 growth forecast to 0.4% citing Iran war impact

Germany's economy grew 0.3% in Q1 2026 amid Iran war headwinds, with unemployment above 3 million and Volkswagen profit down 28.4%. The Federation of German Industries (BDI) cut its 2026 growth forecast from 1.0% to 0.4%, citing lingering effects of the Iran war despite a recent Iran-US deal. BDI also revised eurozone growth to 1.1% and global growth to 2.9%. BDI President Peter Leibinger warned of continued job losses without stronger growth and called for tax relief, better depreciation rules, and innovation incentives. He cautioned against broad EU protective tariffs on China, arguing they would harm Germany's export-oriented economy.

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Germany's economy grew 0.3% in Q1 2026 amid Iran war headwinds, with unemployment above 3 million and Volkswagen profit down 28.4%. The Federation of German Industries (BDI) cut its 2026 growth forecast from 1.0% to 0.4%, citing lingering effects of the Iran war despite a recent Iran-US deal. BDI also revised eurozone growth to 1.1% and global growth to 2.9%. BDI President Peter Leibinger warned of continued job losses without stronger growth and called for tax relief, better depreciation rules, and innovation incentives. He cautioned against broad EU protective tariffs on China, arguing they would harm Germany's export-oriented economy.

ua43

Zelensky warns Russia may prolong war beyond WWII duration, urges stronger pressure

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia may seek to prolong its war against Ukraine indefinitely, comparing President Vladimir Putin's ambitions to those of past aggressors. Speaking on the anniversary of Nazi Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union, Zelensky noted that the full-scale invasion has already exceeded the duration of World War I and called for stronger international pressure to force Moscow into diplomacy. He cited overnight Russian strikes that killed civilians in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia regions and hit multiple other oblasts, arguing that only sustained pressure can bring Russia to the negotiating table.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia may seek to prolong its war against Ukraine indefinitely, comparing President Vladimir Putin's ambitions to those of past aggressors. Speaking on the anniversary of Nazi Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union, Zelensky noted that the full-scale invasion has already exceeded the duration of World War I and called for stronger international pressure to force Moscow into diplomacy. He cited overnight Russian strikes that killed civilians in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia regions and hit multiple other oblasts, arguing that only sustained pressure can bring Russia to the negotiating table.

us43

Vance Reports Progress in US-Iran Talks, Suggests Unfreezing Iranian Assets

US Vice President JD Vance announced significant progress in negotiations with Iran, stating that a 'successful foundation' has been laid for a final agreement. He revealed that the Iranian delegation threatened to walk out but talks continued, resulting in what he described as 'great progress'. Vance suggested the possibility of unfreezing Iranian assets under a mechanism involving Qatari oversight and purchases of American agricultural goods, a solution proposed by Jared Kushner. He also confirmed that IAEA nuclear inspectors are scheduled to arrive in Iran to verify compliance with the preliminary agreement. The negotiations also addressed the Israel-Lebanon conflict, though Vance did not commit to an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory.

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US Vice President JD Vance announced significant progress in negotiations with Iran, stating that a 'successful foundation' has been laid for a final agreement. He revealed that the Iranian delegation threatened to walk out but talks continued, resulting in what he described as 'great progress'. Vance suggested the possibility of unfreezing Iranian assets under a mechanism involving Qatari oversight and purchases of American agricultural goods, a solution proposed by Jared Kushner. He also confirmed that IAEA nuclear inspectors are scheduled to arrive in Iran to verify compliance with the preliminary agreement. The negotiations also addressed the Israel-Lebanon conflict, though Vance did not commit to an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory.