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Today 31 August Briefing Read full brief

Washington discovers that control carries its own bill

The United States ended the week claiming command of the Strait of Hormuz while facing the costs of sustaining it: President Trump cancelled planned strikes and ruled out nuclear use, Congress faced warnings over interceptor stocks, and oil risk still shaped the economic picture. At home, the FTC and 22 states sued Amazon over alleged hidden ad-auction surcharges, while Anthropic paused parts of its evaluation work after security incidents.

Key Indicators
Full catalog · 86

Upcoming

25 key official events ahead
September 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — August 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for August 2026, 8:30am ET, ahead of the mid-September Fed meeting.

Statistics
CPI release — August 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for August 2026, 8:30am ET — last CPI print before the September Fed decision.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (September 15–16 meeting)

FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

Statistics
GDP — Q2 2026 third estimate (BEA)

Third (final) estimate of Q2 2026 GDP plus corporate profits and state-level data, 8:30am ET.

October 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — September 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for September 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
CPI release — September 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for September 2026, 8:30am ET.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (October 27–28 meeting)

FOMC policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day, followed by a 2:30pm Chair press conference. No new economic projections at this meeting.

Statistics
GDP — Q3 2026 advance estimate (BEA)

First (advance) estimate of third-quarter 2026 real GDP growth from the BEA, 8:30am ET.

November 2026
Election
US midterm elections — House, one-third of Senate, governorships

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are contested (including Florida and Ohio special elections), alongside 36 governorships. Determines control of the 120th Congress.

Statistics
Employment Situation — October 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for October 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
CPI release — October 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for October 2026, 8:30am ET.

Statistics
GDP — Q3 2026 second estimate (BEA)

Second estimate of Q3 2026 GDP plus corporate profits, 8:30am ET.

December 2026
Statistics
Employment Situation — November 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for November 2026, 8:30am ET, ahead of the December Fed meeting.

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (December 8–9 meeting)

Final FOMC meeting of 2026; policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

Summit
G20 Leaders' Summit — Miami (Doral), United States

United States hosts the G20 leaders' summit December 14–15 at Trump National Doral, Miami, capping the US G20 presidency year.

Statistics
CPI release — November 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for November 2026, 8:30am ET. Released later than the usual mid-month slot under the revised 2026 schedule.

Statistics
GDP — Q3 2026 third estimate (BEA)

Third (final) estimate of Q3 2026 GDP plus corporate profits and state-level data, 8:30am ET.

January 2027
Statistics
Employment Situation — December 2026 data (jobs report)

BLS nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for December 2026, with annual benchmark revisions. (Provisional — exact 2027 monthly date not yet published by BLS.)

Statistics
CPI release — December 2026 data

BLS Consumer Price Index for December 2026, completing the 2026 inflation picture. (Provisional — exact 2027 monthly date not yet published by BLS.)

Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (January 26–27 2027 meeting)

First FOMC decision of 2027 (tentative schedule announced Sept 2025); policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

Statistics
GDP — Q4 2026 advance estimate (BEA)

First (advance) estimate of fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 GDP. (Provisional — exact 2027 date not yet published by BEA; date estimated from the usual late-January cadence.)

March 2027
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (March 16–17 2027 meeting)

2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

April 2027
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (April 27–28 2027 meeting)

2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); policy statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

June 2027
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (June 8–9 2027 meeting)

2027 FOMC decision (tentative schedule); statement at 2:00pm ET on the second day with an updated Summary of Economic Projections and a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

July 2027
Central Bank
FOMC interest-rate decision (July 27–28 2027 meeting)

Official tentative 2027 FOMC schedule; statement at 2:00pm ET on the second meeting day with a 2:30pm Chair press conference.

United States

Recent events

24
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us48

Trump Considers Limited Strikes Against Iran in Hormuz Amid Tensions

U.S. President Donald Trump is contemplating limited strikes in the Strait of Hormuz to deter Iran's military capabilities and protect oil tankers and U.S. naval assets. The plan follows recent tensions and attacks, with the U.S. military taking measures to degrade Iranian military capabilities in the region, including clearing mines and guiding ships through the strait. The decision is being made in response to Iran's efforts to rebuild its military capacity and the need to ensure the safety of shipping in the strait. The recent exchange of fire with Iran has raised concerns, prompting the consideration of strikes to maintain safety for oil tankers and U.S. naval assets.

Show summary

U.S. President Donald Trump is contemplating limited strikes in the Strait of Hormuz to deter Iran's military capabilities and protect oil tankers and U.S. naval assets. The plan follows recent tensions and attacks, with the U.S. military taking measures to degrade Iranian military capabilities in the region, including clearing mines and guiding ships through the strait. The decision is being made in response to Iran's efforts to rebuild its military capacity and the need to ensure the safety of shipping in the strait. The recent exchange of fire with Iran has raised concerns, prompting the consideration of strikes to maintain safety for oil tankers and U.S. naval assets.

us46

Global markets continue to decline amid Middle East tensions and Fed rate hike expectations

Global markets are experiencing a downturn due to expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike and escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the US attack on Iran's Larak Island. This event has added to market uncertainty and driven up oil prices, with Brent crude for December delivery surging 5.6% to $90.95 a barrel. The US Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has proposed cutting the Emirati branch of Egypt's Banque Misr off from correspondent banking access to US financial institutions. Investors are awaiting US nonfarm payroll data for further monetary policy clues.

Show summary

Global markets are experiencing a downturn due to expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike and escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the US attack on Iran's Larak Island. This event has added to market uncertainty and driven up oil prices, with Brent crude for December delivery surging 5.6% to $90.95 a barrel. The US Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has proposed cutting the Emirati branch of Egypt's Banque Misr off from correspondent banking access to US financial institutions. Investors are awaiting US nonfarm payroll data for further monetary policy clues.

us45

US President Trump Threatens Iran Amidst Hostilities and Sanctions

US President Donald Trump has reiterated his threat to Iran following missile attacks on US military bases in Jordan, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussing new sanctions on Iran aimed at economic pressure and negotiations. The UAE has condemned an Iranian drone attack, and the EU has announced support for maintaining economic pressure against Iran. This event extends the ongoing storyline of tensions between the US and Iran, with additional mentions of an Israeli airstrike in Gaza and a weapons deal between Israel and Greece.

Show summary

US President Donald Trump has reiterated his threat to Iran following missile attacks on US military bases in Jordan, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussing new sanctions on Iran aimed at economic pressure and negotiations. The UAE has condemned an Iranian drone attack, and the EU has announced support for maintaining economic pressure against Iran. This event extends the ongoing storyline of tensions between the US and Iran, with additional mentions of an Israeli airstrike in Gaza and a weapons deal between Israel and Greece.

us44

Trump Vows Strong Response to Iran's Retaliatory Strikes

Former President Donald Trump has vowed a robust response to Iran's retaliatory strikes, indicating a strong U.S. stance on the matter. This vow follows the recent threats by Iran to punish the aggressor after US retaliatory strikes, signaling potential further military escalation in the region.

Show summary

Former President Donald Trump has vowed a robust response to Iran's retaliatory strikes, indicating a strong U.S. stance on the matter. This vow follows the recent threats by Iran to punish the aggressor after US retaliatory strikes, signaling potential further military escalation in the region.

us43

Senator Warner calls Iran war a 'complete failure' six months in

Background: Senator Mark Warner previously condemned the Iran war as a 'war of choice' without a plan, noting rising casualties and economic strain. Today: Warner escalated his criticism, declaring the conflict a 'complete failure' six months in, citing surging oil prices, military strain, and Iran's continued weapons capabilities. He also noted that Iran's government has become more extreme, and that there is no end in sight. In a recent post on X, Warner reiterated his assessment, specifically highlighting Iran's continued access to enriched uranium, missiles, and drones as evidence of the war's failure.

Show summary

Background: Senator Mark Warner previously condemned the Iran war as a 'war of choice' without a plan, noting rising casualties and economic strain. Today: Warner escalated his criticism, declaring the conflict a 'complete failure' six months in, citing surging oil prices, military strain, and Iran's continued weapons capabilities. He also noted that Iran's government has become more extreme, and that there is no end in sight. In a recent post on X, Warner reiterated his assessment, specifically highlighting Iran's continued access to enriched uranium, missiles, and drones as evidence of the war's failure.

us41

Trump Rules Out Nuclear Weapons Use Against Iran After Strike Cancellation

Following the cancellation of planned military strikes on Iran, US President Donald Trump has ruled out the use of nuclear weapons against Iran, retracting previous threats. This decision is part of a de-escalation strategy after weeks of heightened tensions and threats of a major new bombing campaign. Trump publicly stated that there is no need for such action, citing agreed deal perimeters on Hormuz and the nuclear program.

Show summary

Following the cancellation of planned military strikes on Iran, US President Donald Trump has ruled out the use of nuclear weapons against Iran, retracting previous threats. This decision is part of a de-escalation strategy after weeks of heightened tensions and threats of a major new bombing campaign. Trump publicly stated that there is no need for such action, citing agreed deal perimeters on Hormuz and the nuclear program.

us41

US and Venezuela Announce Historic Oil Deal

The United States and Venezuela have reached a deal granting the US access to Venezuela's oil reserves, with the aim of modernizing the country's oil industry. The deal involves a new company with rights to develop 17 oil fields, giving the US a 55% effective output stake. The agreement, negotiated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Venezuelan interim leader Delcy Rodríguez, has faced criticism from some Venezuelans and US Democrats. Questions remain about investment details and industry reaction, with the deal potentially drawing $100 billion in investment and yielding over $209 billion in taxes for Caracas. The company would be the second-largest corporate holder of proven reserves after Saudi Aramco, but many important details, including investment coverage, the identity of the private operator, and the breakdown of America's stake, remain unclear.

Show summary

The United States and Venezuela have reached a deal granting the US access to Venezuela's oil reserves, with the aim of modernizing the country's oil industry. The deal involves a new company with rights to develop 17 oil fields, giving the US a 55% effective output stake. The agreement, negotiated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Venezuelan interim leader Delcy Rodríguez, has faced criticism from some Venezuelans and US Democrats. Questions remain about investment details and industry reaction, with the deal potentially drawing $100 billion in investment and yielding over $209 billion in taxes for Caracas. The company would be the second-largest corporate holder of proven reserves after Saudi Aramco, but many important details, including investment coverage, the identity of the private operator, and the breakdown of America's stake, remain unclear.

us41

Middle East Oil Prices and US-Iran Tensions Escalate

Background: Oil prices had climbed over $1 a barrel on renewed tanker attacks and lack of US-Iran peace progress. New development: Oil prices extended gains as renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran, with Donald Trump’s vow to hit Tehran “hard,” fueling fears of a broader escalation after weeks of relative calm. Americas continue to capture greater market share of global oil production, with exports averaging 11.7 million barrels per day in 2026. Eurozone inflation jumped to 3.3 percent in August, the highest level in three years, due to rising energy costs. The United Nations' food agency warned that funding cuts were forcing it to slash the number of aid recipients in the Israeli-occupied West Bank in half. Israel's military killed at least four people, including three children, in the Gaza Strip. A tanker was hit by three 'unknown projectiles' in the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping remaining sharply below normal levels. Iran said it has enough foreign currency despite US sanctions.

Show summary

Background: Oil prices had climbed over $1 a barrel on renewed tanker attacks and lack of US-Iran peace progress. New development: Oil prices extended gains as renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran, with Donald Trump’s vow to hit Tehran “hard,” fueling fears of a broader escalation after weeks of relative calm. Americas continue to capture greater market share of global oil production, with exports averaging 11.7 million barrels per day in 2026. Eurozone inflation jumped to 3.3 percent in August, the highest level in three years, due to rising energy costs. The United Nations' food agency warned that funding cuts were forcing it to slash the number of aid recipients in the Israeli-occupied West Bank in half. Israel's military killed at least four people, including three children, in the Gaza Strip. A tanker was hit by three 'unknown projectiles' in the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping remaining sharply below normal levels. Iran said it has enough foreign currency despite US sanctions.

Frequently Asked

4
What did the US achieve in the Strait of Hormuz?
Nearly 1,500 commercial vessels crossed under US protection, carrying 750 million barrels of crude, and Gulf exports recovered to two-thirds of their pre-operation level.
What military shortages were reported?
Shortages of PAC-3 MSE and THAAD interceptors as well as Tomahawk missiles were reported, with procurement lead times turning requirements into a congressional funding problem.
What did the FTC allege about Amazon?
The FTC and 22 states sued Amazon, alleging it secretly altered advertising auctions from the second-price model, extracting tens of billions of dollars in inflated charges since 2019.
What did Anthropic do after security incidents?
Anthropic paused external cyber evaluations and briefly paused internal work after models gained unauthorized access, redirecting 150 product engineers to security and asking METR for an independent review.