Subglacial Treasures and Global Competition: The Battle for Critical Minerals Enters the Geopolitical Deep Waters
14/01/2026
Year, Month, Day, Washington. A meeting attended by senior financial officials from the United States, Australia, India, South Korea, Mexico, and other countries convened in a tense atmosphere. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent framed the meeting’s theme as "urgency." This was no ordinary economic coordination session, but a strategic mobilization centered on the security of critical mineral supply chains. Beneath the conference table lay millions of tons of rare earth elements buried under kilometers of ice in Greenland, rare earth-rich mud in the depths of the Pacific Ocean being explored by Japanese vessels, and, more critically, China’s absolute dominance of 70% to 90% in global critical mineral processing. A new era of geo-economic competition—revolving around resources, leveraging technology as bargaining chips, and taking the form of alliances—is unfolding with unprecedented intensity.
Greenland: The Icy Strategic Chessboard and Geopolitical Minefield
Greenland, the world's largest island covered by millions of square kilometers of ice sheets, is rapidly evolving from a remote geographical concept into a focal point of global resource competition. Geological studies indicate that beneath its ice layers may lie one of the world's largest rare earth deposits, with reserves of dysprosium and neodymium expected to meet over a quarter of future global demand. Additionally, the northeastern region may contain resources equivalent to approximately billions of barrels of oil, comparable to the total proven oil reserves of the United States. For the Western world, which is vigorously promoting energy transition yet eager to reduce its dependence on China for critical minerals, the allure of Greenland is irresistible.
However, behind the allure lies an extremely harsh reality. The extraction of mineral resources in Greenland faces three nearly insurmountable obstacles: the extreme and hostile natural environment, almost non-existent infrastructure, and complex and unique geological structures. Less than % of the island's area is ice-free, and most of the known rare earth deposits are trapped in a complex rock called "eudialyte." Diogo Rosa, an economic geology researcher at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, points out: "The biggest challenge is undoubtedly remoteness. Even in the inhabited southern regions, there are hardly any roads or railways, and any mining project must create this infrastructure from scratch." Electricity must be generated locally, specialized labor must be brought in from outside, and the chemical separation processes required for extraction could cause severe pollution in the fragile Arctic ecosystem.
The United States' interest in Greenland is far from a purely economic calculation; it is heavily imbued with geopolitical strategic considerations. Former President Trump once bluntly stated: "We don't want Russia or China getting into Greenland. If we don't take Greenland, your next-door neighbor could be Russia or China. That will never happen." Such rhetoric pushed Greenland to the forefront of tensions within NATO. German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil made a clear statement before his trip to Washington: "The future of Greenland is solely determined by Denmark and Greenland. Territorial sovereignty and integrity must be respected. These principles of international law apply to everyone—including the United States." German Foreign Minister John Wadepool also reminded his American counterpart during their meeting not to forget the shared responsibility of NATO for freedom, self-determination, and security.
Greenland's dilemma reflects the core contradiction in the global competition for resources: the extraction of critical minerals to advance the green transition may itself cause significant environmental damage, especially against the backdrop of climate change, which has already accelerated the melting of Greenland's ice sheet. This creates a paradox: extracting resources to combat climate change could potentially hasten the environmental catastrophe of rising sea levels. Although Greenland's local government holds strict mining regulations, these rules are under immense pressure in the face of growing strategic interest from global powers.
China's Dominance: The Direct Drivers Behind Supply Chain "Chokepoints" and Alliances
The fundamental reason why the Washington meeting was permeated with a sense of "urgency" lies in the strategic vulnerability brought about by the high concentration of the global critical mineral supply chain. Data from the International Energy Agency clearly outlines China's dominant position: % to % of the world's refined processing of copper, lithium, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths is completed in China. These minerals are the lifeblood of defense technology, semiconductors, renewable energy components, batteries, and refining processes.
China not only dominates production but also uses critical minerals as a geopolitical economic tool. In 2010, during the Diaoyu Islands dispute, China abruptly cut off rare earth supplies to Japan, causing a major shock to Japanese industries and forcing Japan to become one of the earliest countries to initiate a supply chain diversification strategy. In 2023, China implemented export licensing controls on certain critical materials, once again sparking panic across multiple industries in Europe. Recently, reports have emerged that China has begun restricting exports of rare earths and rare earth magnets to Japanese companies and has banned the export of dual-use items to the Japanese military. These actions send a clear signal to the world: in the field of critical minerals, dependence equates to risk.
This dependency is not accidental but the result of long-term market and policy effects. The smelting process after rare earth mining produces radioactive waste. China, with its lenient environmental regulations and low costs, has consequently gradually captured the global market share, leading to the decline of related industries in other countries. Professor Kentaro Nakamura of the University of Tokyo warns: "Once an industry declines, talent and proprietary technology are lost. Japan still possesses the relevant technology; now is the critical time to scale it up in a timely manner."This dependency is not accidental but the result of long-term market and policy effects. The smelting process after rare earth mining produces radioactive waste. China, with its lenient environmental regulations and low costs, has consequently gradually captured the global market share, leading to the decline of related industries in other countries. Professor Kentaro Nakamura of the University of Tokyo warns: "Once an industry declines, talent and proprietary technology are lost. Japan still possesses the relevant technology; now is the critical time to scale it up in a timely manner."
China's market dominance grants it strong "pricing power" and "supply power," enabling it to suppress prices through dumping tactics and drive competitors out of the market. This is precisely the fundamental reason behind the meeting's discussion on establishing a "price floor." German Finance Minister Christian Lindner explained that setting a minimum price is not aimed at confronting anyone but rather at strengthening cooperation among partners. The benefit lies in providing the market with predictable prices and minimizing the influence of countries attempting to manipulate market prices. This is essentially an attempt to build an internal price stability mechanism within a "de-sinicized" supply chain.
Alliance Building and Diversification Pathways: A Race Against Time
In the face of China's dominant position, Western countries led by the United States are attempting to break the deadlock by forming alliances and exploring diversified supply pathways. The Washington Conference itself serves as a platform for alliance-building, with participating countries collectively accounting for % of global demand for critical minerals. The U.S. strategy is to demonstrate leadership and take the lead by uniting partners with a "shared sense of urgency."
Currently, the exploration of diversification is unfolding along several main lines:
First, develop alternative resource reserves. Greenland is one of the options, but as mentioned earlier, there are numerous obstacles. More realistic projects are distributed in friendly countries such as the United States itself and Australia. The United States has signed a critical minerals agreement with Australia aimed at countering China's dominance, involving an $85 billion project pipeline, and utilizing Australia's proposed strategic reserves to supply metals vulnerable to disruption, such as rare earths and lithium. Australia has stated that it has since received interest in cooperation from Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore.
The second is investing in and supporting existing supply chain nodes. The U.S. government has directly invested in the operating company of MP Materials, the only rare earth mine in the United States, as well as a lithium mining company and a company that recycles rare earth batteries and other products. In the business sector, companies like Noveon Magnetics are already producing over 2,000 metric tons of magnets annually at their Texas factory using elements sourced outside of China. Its CEO, Scott Dunn, believes that investing in these companies with a proven track record of successful delivery is the starting point where the U.S. government should focus its efforts.
The third is technological breakthroughs and the exploration of new resources. Japan's deep-sea rare earth exploration represents the most cutting-edge direction of exploration. The "Chikyu" research vessel of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology has headed to the waters near Minamitorishima, approximately 1,950 kilometers east of Tokyo, planning to excavate rare earth-containing mud from the seabed at a depth of about 6,000 meters for testing. This "rare earth mud" contains almost no radioactive substances such as uranium and thorium, and it is expected that the entire process from mining to refining can be completed within Japan. Professor Nakamura believes this could enable Japan to play a central role in the new rare earth supply chain decoupled from China.
However, all pathways face common challenges: time and cost. From exploration, feasibility studies, and environmental assessments to construction and production, the cycle of a new mine often spans over a decade and requires investments of tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. Ian Lange, a professor of economics specializing in rare earth research at the Colorado School of Mines in the United States, frankly stated, "Everyone is racing toward the finish line. And if you go to Greenland, it’s like starting all over again." The industry tends to favor projects that already have some foundation rather than starting from scratch.
European Prudence and the Future of Global Supply Chains
In this alliance-building actively promoted by the United States, Europe's attitude appears more complex and cautious. The statement by German Vice Chancellor Habeck is quite representative: on one hand, it expresses openness to "joint action" aimed at "reducing dependence and strengthening supply security"; on the other hand, it firmly defends the rules-based international order and explicitly opposes the U.S. claim to sovereignty over Greenland.
Europe's caution stems from its multifaceted interests. Firstly, Europe's economic ties with China are deeply intertwined, and adopting an overly confrontational stance on critical minerals could provoke countermeasures from China, thereby harming its own economic interests. Secondly, Europe has stringent requirements for environmental, social, and governance standards. Any mining project, whether in Greenland, Africa, or elsewhere, must undergo rigorous sustainability assessments, which inevitably increase costs and extend timelines. Lastly, Europe's pursuit of strategic autonomy makes it reluctant to follow the United States' lead entirely. Instead, it seeks to maintain its decision-making independence while preserving the transatlantic alliance.
The reshaping of the global critical mineral supply chain is destined to be a long, costly, and geopolitically risky trek. It is not merely about finding new mines, but about rebuilding an entire industrial system encompassing exploration, mining, smelting, separation, refining, and manufacturing, while ensuring it meets environmental and social standards. The advantages China has built over the past decades are the result of combined effects from economies of scale, cost control, technological accumulation, and industrial cluster integration, making them difficult to simply replicate or replace in the short term.
The Washington Conference may not yield a concrete joint action plan, but it marks a turning point: major industrialized nations have collectively recognized that tying the lifeline of strategic industries to a single country is an unacceptable risk. The future competition will be between alliances, between supply chain resilience, and between technological innovation and sustainable development capabilities. The ice and snow of Greenland, the deep-sea mud of the Pacific, and the mines of Australia will all become footnotes in this grand game. The ultimate winner may not be the country with the most resources, but the one that can most effectively integrate resources, technology, capital, and alliance networks to build the most resilient and sustainable supply chain system. This race has just begun, and its outcome will profoundly shape the global industrial landscape and balance of power for decades to come.
Reference materials
https://jp.reuters.com/markets/japan/4YTPYQ75ENNOHOMMHTYOTEJJZU-2026-01-12/
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/4f635c8a52657529cd34f0a0074607d4cbd2cd95