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Global Security Situation Brief

14/01/2026

Iran

  • President Trump stated on Saturday that his administration is ready to assist anti-government demonstrators in Iran, remarking that Iran is seeking freedom, perhaps more urgently than ever before. The United States stands ready to provide help!!! Over the weekend, Trump also repeatedly indicated that he would use force if the Iranian regime employs violence against the protesters. (Axios)
  • Yesterday, Trump stated that Iran proposed negotiations after he threatened to launch a military strike in protest of its crackdown on anti-government demonstrators. Meanwhile, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activist News Agency reported that the death toll has risen to at least 544 people. Trump added: "Meetings are being prepared, but given what happened before the meeting, we may have to take action." According to two sources, Trump and his national security team have been weighing a series of response measures, including cyberattacks and direct strikes by the United States or Israel. U.S. officials said they must proceed cautiously to ensure that military strikes do not provoke public support for the Tehran government or trigger retaliatory strikes. (Associated Press)
  • The spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated today: The communication channel between our Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and the U.S. Special Envoy (Steve Wittkopf) remains open, and both sides exchange information when necessary. The spokesperson added that contradictory messages from the United States indicate a lack of sincerity. While addressing ambassadors from various countries in Tehran, Araghchi reiterated that the Islamic Republic of Iran is prepared for war but is also willing to engage in dialogue. (Reuters)
  • According to U.S. officials, Trump will receive a briefing on Tuesday regarding plans to respond to the protests in Iran, which include strengthening anti-government cyber capabilities, deploying covert cyber weapons, imposing additional sanctions on the Iranian regime, and launching military strikes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Cain are expected to attend the meeting. (The Wall Street Journal)

U.S. Caribbean and Pacific Operations

  • On Friday, Trump stated that the United States and Venezuela are cooperating well, adding that due to this cooperation, he has canceled the previously anticipated second wave of strikes, and it seems this action is no longer necessary. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters that the United States may lift additional sanctions on Venezuela as early as this week to promote oil sales. He also mentioned that he will meet with the heads of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to discuss their re-engagement with Venezuela. (POLITICO)
  • Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez issued a statement saying that Venezuela is exploring the restoration of diplomatic relations and plans to send a delegation to Washington to inspect its long-closed embassy. A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department stated that American diplomats visited Caracas on Friday to assess the possibility of reopening the embassy. (The New York Times)
  • U.S. Southern Command stated on social media early Friday that the United States has seized another oil tanker in the Caribbean Sea. The tanker, named the Olena, was successfully seized, marking the fifth tanker related to Venezuela that the Trump administration has captured since December last year. (POLITICO)
  • The White House said on Saturday that Trump signed an executive order on Friday aimed at preventing courts or creditors from seizing revenue related to Venezuelan oil sales held in U.S. Treasury accounts. Several companies, including ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, have long held claims against Venezuela. The order declares that these revenues are sovereign property of Venezuela, held by the United States for governmental and diplomatic purposes, and are not subject to private claims. (Reuters)
  • Trump stated yesterday that he is inclined to block ExxonMobil from entering the Venezuelan market after the company's CEO expressed skepticism about investing in Venezuela's oil sector. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said: If we examine the current business structure and framework in Venezuela, we find that it is simply not suitable for investment at this time. (Associated Press)
  • Trump stated on social media yesterday that Venezuela will no longer supply oil or funds to Cuba, adding that the United States will distance itself from both countries. Trump urged Cuba to reach an agreement while there is still time, but the meaning behind his words remains unclear. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel responded to Trump, saying that Cuba is prepared to confront U.S. threats and adding that no one can tell us what to do. (The New York Times)
  • Sources said that although U.S. intelligence indicates key sectors of Cuba's economy are under significant strain due to frequent power outages, trade sanctions, and other issues, the CIA's recent assessment did not reach a definitive conclusion on whether economic deterioration would shake the foundations of the Cuban government. Notably, Trump and other U.S. officials have suggested that cutting off Cuba's oil supply from Venezuela could lead to the collapse of the Cuban government. Reuters could not determine whether the CIA has issued an updated assessment since Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was arrested last week. (Reuters)

Developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation

  • A Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian city of Voronezh killed one person and injured three, local officials said yesterday. Meanwhile, thousands of residents in Kyiv remain without power following Russian bombing that began Friday evening. (AP)

Israel-Hamas war

  • According to local health authorities, Israeli forces opened fire in two separate incidents in the Gaza Strip yesterday, resulting in the deaths of at least three Palestinians. Medical personnel reported that one Palestinian was killed in the Tuffah neighborhood of Gaza City (under Palestinian control), while two other Palestinians were killed in the town of Bani Suheila, east of Khan Younis in southern Gaza (an area still occupied by Israel). (Reuters)
  • Hamas stated yesterday that it will dissolve its existing government in Gaza once the Palestinian technocratic committee takes over the Gaza Strip under the U.S.-brokered peace plan. However, the organization did not disclose a specific timeline. An Egyptian official said that Hamas will meet with other Palestinian factions this week to finalize the formation of the technocratic committee. (AP)

Violent incidents in the West Bank

  • According to the organization, recently, due to harassment by Jewish settlers, more than a dozen families in the Palestinian Bedouin village of Ras al-Ain Oja in the West Bank packed their belongings and fled their homes. (AP)

Sudan Civil War

  • The spokesperson for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs stated on Friday: In Sudan, female-headed households are three times more likely to face food insecurity than other households. Three-quarters of these households report not having enough to eat. It is estimated that currently, over 21 million people across Sudan are facing severe food insecurity. According to the United Nations' Olivia Le Poidevin reporting for Reuters, approximately 34 million people require humanitarian assistance, half of whom are children.

Other Global Development Trends

  • A representative of the Yemeni separatist faction, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), announced the dissolution of the organization in Riyadh on Friday. However, a senior STC official stated on social media that the delegation was forced to announce the dissolution in a disgusting and absurd farce. Mohamed Al-Sahmi, the STC representative to the United Kingdom, said via phone that the decision to dissolve the separatist organization is invalid because it was made in Saudi Arabia and was not voted on by all STC members. (The New York Times)
  • Yesterday morning, following the announcement of the ceasefire agreement, the last few fighters of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces have withdrawn from the Syrian capital of Aleppo. According to local media reports, buses carrying the final group of Syrian Democratic Forces members were seen leaving the Kurdish-populated Sheikh Maqsoud district. ()
  • Hearings on whether Myanmar committed genocide against the Rohingya ethnic minority opened today at the International Court of Justice. The case was initially brought to the International Court of Justice by The Gambia in 2019, which argued that the so-called clearance operations carried out by the Myanmar military in 2017 violated the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. (Associated Press)

American relations

  • The United States launched a large-scale airstrike on Islamic State targets in Syria on Saturday. A spokesperson for the U.S. Central Command stated that approximately 20 Air Force attack aircraft, including F-15Es, A-10s, and AC-130J gunships, along with MQ-9 Reaper drones and Jordanian F-16 fighter jets, fired over 90 bombs and missiles at at least 35 targets. These targets included weapons depots, supply lines, and other infrastructure used by the Islamic State. (The New York Times)
  • According to a memo obtained by Axios, 15 former senior U.S. officials jointly wrote to the White House, the State Department, and members of Congress, warning against using force to seize Greenland. The memo states: The current president's threat to use force or other coercive means to seize Greenland from our ally Denmark is a strategic folly, both in the short and long term. The memo warns that our adversaries are eyeing the opportunities created by such division, waiting to replace us.
  • On Thursday, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem quietly ordered new restrictions on congressional visits to immigration detention centers. The restrictions, disclosed in court on Saturday, require lawmakers to apply for approval one week in advance before conducting oversight visits to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities. These restrictions are nearly identical to a policy halted last month by a federal judge, who ruled that the policy appeared to violate a provision in the appropriations bill funding ICE. Noem stated that she would bypass this ruling by injecting funds into ICE through the Great Act ( ).
  • The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced on Friday that it will review approximately refugee applications from Minnesota, conducting new interviews and background checks on individuals who have already been granted status. (The New York Times)
  • Noem stated yesterday that the Trump administration will deploy hundreds of additional federal agents to Minneapolis today or tomorrow to support the enforcement efforts of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). She pointed out that this move is in response to a major welfare fraud scandal in Minnesota. Noem also mentioned that several nonprofit organizations in Minnesota are under investigation due to their funding sources, alleging that these organizations have trained protesters to obstruct law enforcement operations and equipped vehicles to confront ICE agents. (The New York Times)
  • According to officials, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia has launched an investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters building and whether Powell lied about the scale of the project. Powell admitted yesterday that the Department of Justice recently served the Federal Reserve with a grand jury subpoena. Powell stated that Trump is attempting to use the threat of criminal prosecution to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Following this news, stock index futures fell, the dollar weakened, and gold prices surged to a record high. In a statement, Tom Tillis, a key swing vote on the Senate Banking Committee and a Republican senator from North Carolina, said: If there was any doubt before about whether Trump administration advisors are actively working to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should be no doubt now. He added: What is now in question is the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice. (The New York Times)
  • Christopher LaJa, a veteran agent who has long served as the head of the FBI's New York Field Office, has been appointed as the bureau's new deputy director, succeeding Dan Bongino. He is expected to assume the position next week. (The New York Times)

Trump Administration Lawsuit

  • On Friday, a federal judge blocked the Trump administration from enforcing part of an executive order that directed the government to withhold federal election funds from states that did not make changes to their voting procedures as demanded by Trump. (The New York Times)
  • On Friday, a federal judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration from freezing billions of dollars in welfare funds originally planned to be allocated to five Democrat-led states.
  • On Saturday, a federal judge suspended a Trump administration policy that terminated an immigration program allowing immigrants from several Central and South American countries to reunite with their families in the United States while awaiting visas. This order extends the family reunification parole status for these immigrants, which was originally set to expire on Wednesday. (The New York Times)