Panda's Return and Diplomatic Chill: The Changing Sino-Japanese Relations Behind Japan's "Panda Vacuum"

On January 27, 2026, at Ueno Zoo in Tokyo. Three-year-old twin giant pandas Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei boarded a special plane under the reluctant gazes of thousands of Japanese people, returning to their homeland, China. As the cargo hatch closed, Japan entered its first period without giant pandas in half a century. This seemingly routine animal return was shrouded in a heavy political cloud due to the ongoing chill in China-Japan relations. The departure of the pandas not only took away a generation of collective memories for the Japanese but also acted like a prism, reflecting the complex and subtle geopolitical reality between the two nations.

Ueno's Farewell: A National-Level Emotional Detachment

On January 25, Sunday. Before Ueno Zoo opened, the queue had already stretched for hundreds of meters. Many people were dressed in black and white clothing, holding panda plush toys in their arms. They had secured this final opportunity through intense competition—the zoo's online lottery system had a winning rate of only 1 in 24.6. Each group of approved visitors was allowed only 60 seconds of viewing time, but this did not diminish their enthusiasm in the slightest. The sound of camera shutters clicked continuously, mingled with soft calls of the names Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei.

This farewell-like scene is not the first in Japan, yet it may mark the beginning of the longest one.

The integration of pandas into Japanese society far exceeds that of ordinary animals. Since the arrival of the first giant pandas, Kang Kang and Lan Lan, at Ueno in 1972 as gifts marking the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations, these black-and-white creatures have swiftly captured the hearts of the Japanese people. Over the past half-century, more than 20 pandas have lived in Japan, becoming not only zoo celebrities but also icons of popular culture. In Ueno, panda imagery is ubiquitous: sculptures outside train stations, cartoon signs in shop windows, packaging for biscuits and candies, stationery, and photo collections. A department store even features a dedicated panda merchandise section.

Pandas are the symbol and stars of Ueno. The concerns of souvenir shop manager Asao Ezure are representative. His store's sign still features cartoon images of Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei. We are worried about the impact the pandas' departure might bring. However, he chooses not to replace the sign because he believes they will return.

This emotional bond is even more profound on an individual level. Network engineer Takahiro Takauji has visited Ueno Zoo every day for the past 15 years to photograph pandas. He began documenting them from the era of Shin Shin and Ri Ri, the parents of Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei, accumulating over 10 million photos and publishing several panda photo collections. In his Tokyo home, one room is filled with panda mascots and decorations. During his final viewing, he continuously shot about 5000 photos in one minute, capturing every movement of the twins.

From the moment they were born, I have been watching over them, just like my own children. Takashi Takahiro said, I never imagined a day when Japan would be without pandas.

Kansai University economics professor Katsuhiro Miyamoto's calculations provide an economic footnote to this emotional value: The absence of pandas would cause Ueno Zoo to lose approximately 20 billion yen (about 128 million US dollars) annually. If this situation persists for several years, the negative economic impact could reach hundreds of billions of yen. For panda-loving Japanese people, including myself, I hope they can return as soon as possible.

Fifty Years of Panda Diplomacy: From Gifts to Political Thermometers

The panda's departure from Japan, ostensibly a routine arrangement following the expiration of the lease agreement, is in fact deeply embedded within the broader framework of the evolving China-Japan relationship. To understand the uniqueness of the current situation, it is necessary to trace back the half-century journey of panda diplomacy.

October 28, 1972, a symbolic moment in time. Just one month earlier, Japanese Prime Minister Tanaka Kakuei and Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai signed the "Joint Communique of the Government of Japan and the Government of the People's Republic of China," normalizing diplomatic relations between the two countries. In the communique, Japan expressed its full understanding and respect for China's position that Taiwan is an inalienable part of its territory. The arrival of pandas Kang Kang and Lan Lan served as a heartwarming footnote to this historic breakthrough.

At that time, China also gifted the first batch of giant pandas to Western countries such as the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and West Germany, marking an attempt to use this unique creature as a vehicle of soft power during China's return to the international community. Panda diplomacy, from the very beginning, transcended mere animal exchange and became a barometer of relations between nations.

In the 1980s, China shifted from a gifting model to a leasing program, requiring overseas zoos to pay an annual fee for habitat conservation or scientific research. This change reflected the growing awareness of panda protection and made panda exchanges more sustainable and standardized. However, regardless of the form, the essence of pandas as diplomatic tools has never changed—they remain a scarce resource controlled by the Chinese government, and their flow is closely tied to the warmth of bilateral relations.

Japan has long understood the political nature of panda diplomacy. After the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, there was a plan to gift a panda to the affected city of Sendai as a gesture of sympathy and support. However, this plan was shelved in 2012 due to territorial disputes. Whether pandas come or not, and when they come, has never been solely a matter for zoos.

Returning Home in the Cold Current: How Geopolitical Tensions Affect the Fate of Pandas

The reason why Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei's return to their home country has attracted widespread attention lies in the critical timing of the event—Sino-Japanese relations are at their lowest point in years. Analysis indicates that the departure of the pandas and the cooling of bilateral relations have formed a synchrony that is hard to ignore.

The Taiwan issue has become the focal point of recent friction. In November 2025, during a parliamentary debate, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae stated that potential military crises in the Taiwan Strait constitute an existential threat, which could prompt Tokyo to exercise its right to collective self-defense. These remarks triggered a strong reaction from China, which lodged a solemn representation with Japan. China views Taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory and firmly opposes any external interference. Takaichi Sanae's comments touched a red line for China, directly leading to an escalation of bilateral tensions.

This tense situation has permeated the level of diplomatic practice. In late January, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara acknowledged that the position of Consul General at the Japanese Consulate General in Chongqing had been vacant for a month due to China's delayed approval of the successor candidate. Such obstruction in diplomatic personnel arrangements often serves as a clear signal of cooling relations between nations.

The broader geopolitical context is equally significant. The relationship between China and Japan has been complex since Japan's invasion of China in the 19th century, and territorial disputes persist in the East China Sea today. With China's rise bringing security concerns and expanding economic influence, tensions between the two nations in political, trade, and security domains continue to escalate. In this environment, the panda—an animal once symbolizing friendship—inevitably becomes a pawn on the diplomatic chessboard.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiacun's response when asked whether new pandas would be sent to Japan was thought-provoking: I know that giant pandas are deeply loved by many Japanese people, and we welcome Japanese friends to come to China to visit them. This statement about coming to China to see them in the future, rather than sending them to Japan, while not directly closing the door to future cooperation, clearly indicates the direction of panda exchanges under current conditions.

After the Vacuum: The Future of Japanese Panda Culture and the Direction of Sino-Japanese Relations

With the departure of Xiaoxiao and Leilei, Japan has entered a panda vacuum period. How long this situation will last depends not only on the technical arrangements for panda breeding and conservation but is also closely linked to the process of repairing China-Japan relations.

From a cultural psychology perspective, pandas have formed a unique subcultural ecosystem in Japanese society. Panda enthusiasts like Takashi Takahiro are not isolated cases; they form stable fan communities that sustain the vitality of panda culture through blogs, social media, and offline activities. Even after pandas physically leave, related merchandise, images, and memories continue to preserve this cultural presence for some time. The souvenir shop manager Ezure's insistence on not removing the panda signage reflects confidence in this cultural resilience.

However, cultural memories fade over time, while economic impacts are immediate and quantifiable. Professor Katsuhiro Miyamoto's prediction of an annual loss of 20 billion yen primarily stems from decreased ticket sales, reduced merchandise revenue, and the weakened tourism boost previously driven by pandas. If the vacancy period extends, both Ueno Zoo and the broader Ueno commercial district may face structural adjustments.

From a diplomatic perspective, the absence of pandas itself has become a political signal. China holds an absolute monopoly on global panda resources (except for one special-case panda in Mexico), and this monopoly grants Beijing asymmetric influence in panda diplomacy. Whether and when to provide new pandas to Japan will serve as a tangible indicator for measuring the improvement of China-Japan relations.

Historical experience shows that the resumption of panda diplomacy often lags behind the warming of political relations. The two countries need to find ways at the diplomatic level to ease tensions and rebuild mutual trust in order to create conditions for the return of pandas. This involves a series of complex issues: mutual understanding on the Taiwan issue, management mechanisms for disputes in the East China Sea, and the balance between economic cooperation and strategic competition.

For ordinary Japanese citizens, what they care more about is whether they can see these creatures that bring immense comfort again. The words of long-time panda enthusiast Seki Michiko represent this common sentiment: I don't want pandas to be caught in diplomatic disputes. They are animals that provide great solace. Japan needs pandas, and I hope politicians can find a way to resolve this.

The Interweaving of Soft Power and Hard Reality

The departure of pandas from Japan, ostensibly a technical event due to the expiration of their lease, actually reveals the complex interplay of soft power and hard power in contemporary international relations. The goodwill conveyed by China through pandas can quickly establish emotional connections, but the maintenance and deepening of these connections ultimately depend on deeper political mutual trust and strategic coordination between nations.

Half a century ago, pandas arrived in Japan as ice-breaking envoys, witnessing the historic turning point in Sino-Japanese relations from hostility to normalization. Today, the temporary departure of pandas similarly reflects the challenges and tests faced by the bilateral relationship. These black-and-white creatures present rich shades of gray on the diplomatic stage—they are both symbols of friendship and can become carriers of political pressure; they can bring economic benefits, but their departure may also cause losses.

The length of Japan's panda vacuum period will become a unique window to observe the direction of Sino-Japanese relations. When pandas set foot on Japanese soil again, it will not only signify progress in animal conservation cooperation but also mean that the two countries have found the wisdom to transcend differences and coexist in shared prosperity. Until then, the panda pavilion at Ueno Zoo will remain temporarily vacant, awaiting not just new residents but also a more stable and predictable future for bilateral relations.

In this era of uncertainty, the comings and goings of pandas remind us that even the softest cultural symbols cannot be entirely separated from the hard realities of geopolitics. True diplomatic wisdom may lie in finding a way for the two to coexist harmoniously, allowing pandas not only to serve as diplomatic tools but also to become enduring bridges connecting the hearts of people from both nations.