Global Security Situation Brief

Iran

• An Iranian official told Reuters today that approximately 2,000 people have been killed in Iran's protests. The Iranian official stated that terrorists are behind the deaths of protesters and security personnel. The official did not provide specific information about the deceased. The U.S.-based human rights activist news agency reported last night that 10,721 people have been arrested and confirmed the names of hundreds of those killed in anti-government protests.
• According to sources in Tehran, Iran eased some restrictions on the public today, allowing them to make international long-distance calls via mobile phones. However, internet restrictions have not been lifted, and SMS services have not been restored. (Associated Press)
• Reuters reported yesterday, citing three Iranian sources, that despite nationwide communication disruptions in Iran, some Iranians are still using Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet service.
• U.S. officials said yesterday that President Trump is exploring various diplomatic options with Iran while also weighing whether to launch an attack on Iran in response to ongoing violence against anti-government protesters. One official stated that the range of strike options presented to Trump by the Pentagon is broader than previously reported, including targets such as Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile bases. However, more specific options such as cyberattacks or strikes on Iran’s domestic security agencies remain more likely, adding that any attack would still take at least several days. Trump is expected to meet with his senior national security team today to discuss these options. (The New York Times)
• Trump stated yesterday that countries trading with Iran could immediately face penalties of additional % tariffs on the United States. According to data from the trade monitoring agency ( ), , Turkey, Pakistan, and India are Iran's largest trading partners. (Financial Times)

U.S. Caribbean and Pacific Operations

• According to officials, in a certain month last year, the Pentagon first used a secret aircraft disguised as a civilian plane to attack a vessel accused by the Trump administration of drug smuggling, resulting in several deaths. Since then, the U.S. military has shifted to using visibly military aircraft for maritime strikes, including MQ-9 Reaper drones. (The New York Times)
• According to U.S. government officials, Trump will meet with Venezuelan opposition activist María Corina Machado at the White House on Thursday. (The Wall Street Journal)
• The Venezuelan government stated yesterday that 116 prisoners have been released so far, but opposition and human rights organizations report much lower figures. The opposition alliance Unidad Venezuela claimed that only 65 individuals have been released to date. The legal advocacy group Foro Penal reported the number of releases as 49. Reuters reported that the Venezuelan prison administration indicated that the released individuals were involved in activities disrupting constitutional order and undermining national stability.
• London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) shipping data released yesterday shows that two supertankers flying the Chinese flag, originally scheduled to sail to Venezuela to deliver oil for debt repayment, have now returned to Asia. These two very large crude carriers, Xingye and Qianyang, are not under sanctions. Affected by the U.S. blockade and the political crisis in Venezuela, they have been anchored in the Atlantic for several weeks, awaiting instructions. (Reuters)

Developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation

• Officials stated today that Russia launched its second large-scale drone and missile bombardment against Ukraine in four days, resulting in four deaths and multiple injuries. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on social media that Russia fired nearly 300 drones, 18 ballistic missiles, and 7 cruise missiles overnight at eight regions of Ukraine. U.S. Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Tammy Bruce accused Russia yesterday of dangerously and inexplicably escalating the war, noting that Russia launched a nuclear-capable Oleshnyk ballistic missile last week, along with shocking casualty figures. (Associated Press)

Israel-Hamas war

• According to an analysis of satellite imagery by The New York Times, since the ceasefire in October, Israel has demolished over 1,000 buildings in the Gaza Strip. Most of the demolitions occurred in areas of Gaza controlled by Israel, but dozens of buildings were also destroyed in areas under Hamas’s actual control, beyond the Yellow Line. (The New York Times)
• Hospital officials said three Palestinians were killed yesterday by an Israeli drone strike after they crossed the ceasefire line near the Morag corridor in central Gaza. The Israeli military stated that the three individuals had approached Israeli forces, posing an immediate threat. (AP)
• A Palestinian militia group supported by Israel claimed yesterday that they killed a senior Hamas police officer in southern Gaza. Hamas stated that the gunman fired from a passing car, resulting in the death of Mahmoud Al-Astal, and referred to the attackers as accomplices of the occupiers. Reuters could not independently verify the specific circumstances of the attack. An Israeli military official stated that the military was not aware of any military operations in the area. (Reuters)

American relations

• EU Commissioner for Defense and Space Affairs, Andrius Kubilius, stated yesterday that the European Union could help Greenland ensure its security if Denmark makes a request. He also warned that if the United States were to militarily take over Greenland, NATO would cease to exist. Kubilius expressed his belief that the United States would not launch a military invasion, but Article of the EU Treaty stipulates that if Denmark faces military aggression, EU member states are obligated to provide assistance to Denmark. (Reuters)
• NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated yesterday that NATO member states are discussing the next steps to ensure Arctic security. Rutte told reporters in Croatia: All allies recognize the importance of the Arctic and its security. As maritime routes open up, Russia and China may become more active. (Reuters)
• Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated yesterday that she had a very good conversation with Trump, and the governments of the two countries will continue to cooperate on security issues without the need for U.S. intervention in combating drug cartels. Sheinbaum said: (Trump) asked for my opinion on what they have done in Venezuela, and I made it very clear to him that our constitution is very clear—we do not agree with any intervention, and that is all. Trump still insisted that if we made a request, they could provide military assistance. Sheinbaum indicated that she once again declined this offer. (Associated Press)
• The U.S. State Department said yesterday that more than 10,000 visas have been revoked since Trump took office last year, setting a new record. (Reuters)
• A spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security, Tricia McLaughlin, said yesterday that the Trump administration will send approximately Customs and Border Protection officers to Minnesota to join the Department of Homeland Security officials and agents already deployed there. (The New York Times)
• According to three sources, at least four heads of the Justice Department's unit investigating police killings have resigned in protest of the Trump administration's handling of last week's shooting of an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent in Minneapolis. The sources stated that this followed the decision by Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights, Hamid Dilan, not to open an investigation into the incident, despite the fact that the unit's criminal section typically handles investigations into any fatal shootings by law enforcement officers.
• According to sources, federal investigators looking into the shooting death of a woman by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) are examining whether she was connected to activist groups protesting the Trump administration's immigration enforcement policies. Sources also indicated that the likelihood of criminal charges being filed against the law enforcement officer who fired three shots at the unarmed woman appears to be diminishing. (The New York Times)
• The U.S. Department of Justice announced yesterday that the man who was shot by Customs and Border Protection agents in East Portland last week has been charged with the serious assault of a federal officer. ()
• New Jersey lawmakers yesterday submitted a series of bills supporting immigrants to Governor Phil Murphy (Democrat), including legislation that restricts state and local governments from cooperating with federal immigration authorities. This is similar to the Murphy administration's "Immigrant Trust Directive," so it remains unclear whether Murphy will sign it. Murphy told POLITICO yesterday: This directive works. It really works, even for judges appointed by Trump. So, initially—without commenting on the final outcome—my thought was, 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it.' (POLITICO)
• According to multiple sources, the Department of Justice has dismissed senior prosecutor Robert McBride due to his refusal to work on the prosecution of former FBI Director James Comey. McBride was previously transferred to the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of Virginia, where he served as the first assistant to U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan and took on a more significant role after Halligan's position was questioned last year. Sources stated that McBride had informed senior officials at the Department of Justice that he believed it would be challenging to simultaneously handle the Comey case and the day-to-day operations of the office.
• According to Representative Jim Jordan, a Republican from Ohio and Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, former Special Counsel Jack Smith will attend a public hearing of the House Judiciary Committee on [date]. (Reuters)
• Former U.S. Navy sailor Wei Jinchao was sentenced to several years in prison yesterday on charges of engaging in espionage and using his security clearance to sell confidential information about the performance of U.S. warships. (The New York Times)

Actions of the Trump administration

• According to government officials and other sources, Trump has repeatedly complained to his aides in recent weeks about Attorney General Pam Bondi, calling her weak and ineffective in enforcing his policies. Some officials noted that these criticisms appear to be part of Trump's efforts to pressure the Justice Department into more aggressively advancing his agenda. Sources said Trump is most dissatisfied with Bondi's failure to prosecute Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James. (The Wall Street Journal)
• According to Axios, two sources revealed that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Trump on Sunday evening that the federal government's investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was a mess and could adversely affect financial markets. "The Secretary is very unhappy and has already informed the President of the situation," one of the sources said. The sources also added that the office of U.S. Attorney Jenny Pirro in Washington D.C. initiated the investigation without prior notice to the Treasury Department, senior White House officials, or the Department of Justice. One of the sources stated, "Trump did not instruct Pirro to do this. But I cannot say he would instruct her to withdraw the investigation." Mark Caputo reported: "The President is very angry with Powell. What more can I say?"
• According to four sources, the U.S. Department of Defense has spent over a year testing a device acquired during a covert operation. Some investigators believe the device may be linked to Havana Syndrome, a series of unexplained illnesses affecting American spies, diplomats, and soldiers. The syndrome first emerged in 2016 among U.S. diplomats stationed in Cuba and has since been reported worldwide, with symptoms resembling head trauma, such as dizziness, headaches, and cognitive impairment. One source stated that the device, purchased by Homeland Security Investigations, emits pulsed radio waves, contains some Russian components, and is compact enough to fit into a backpack. The device is still under study, and whether it is connected to dozens of anomalous health incidents remains a subject of debate. (CNN)

Trump Administration Lawsuit

• Yesterday, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction, allowing the Revolution Wind project to resume construction near the coast of Rhode Island. The judge stated that Revolution Wind has demonstrated a likelihood of success on the merits of its claims and would likely suffer irreparable harm without the injunction. (Axios)
• Arizona Democratic Senator Mark Kelly filed a lawsuit against Defense Secretary Pete Haghes yesterday, alleging that the Pentagon's process of demoting him from retired Navy captain violated his freedom of speech because he had urged U.S. military personnel to refuse to carry out illegal orders. (Reuters)
• Minnesota and Illinois filed separate lawsuits against the Trump administration yesterday, alleging that the administration is conducting mandatory immigration enforcement operations that ultimately lead to the militarization and illegal deployment of federal immigration enforcement personnel. Illinois requested a judge to prevent U.S. Customs and Border Protection from carrying out civil immigration enforcement operations in the state without explicit authorization from Congress. Minnesota’s lawsuit seeks to block the federal government from implementing an unprecedented troop surge in the state. (The New York Times)