Bill Gates' Prophecy: The Ultimate Transformation and the Future Under the Shadow of Bioterrorism
14/01/2026
Bill Gates' Prophecy: The Ultimate Transformation and the Future Under the Shadow of Bioterrorism
In early 2025, Bill Gates, in his annual essay titled "Optimism in Footnotes," presented an assertion that left global policymakers, tech leaders, and ordinary readers holding their breath: Artificial intelligence will be the most transformative invention in human history, and its impact on society will surpass that of any previous technology. The Microsoft co-founder and influential voice in global public health did not stop at praising the technology's potential. He cautioned, in an almost warning tone, that if mismanaged, the risks posed by AI—especially the possibility of it being used to design bioterrorism weapons—could be more destructive than a naturally occurring pandemic. This was not the first time Gates had issued such a warning. Ten years ago, he bluntly stated in a TED talk that the world was unprepared for a large-scale epidemic, and the tragic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic unfortunately validated his foresight. Today, he has turned his attention to a more complex and dangerous intersection: the combination of open-source AI tools and synthetic biology knowledge.
Beyond Fire and the Wheel: The Historical Positioning as the Ultimate Universal Technology
Placing artificial intelligence within the coordinate system of human invention history, Bill Gates assigns it an unprecedented apex position. This positioning surpasses the steam engine, electricity, the internet, and even the personal computer. Analysis reveals that Gates’ judgment is based on its characteristic as a **"meta-technology"**—it is not merely a tool but an engine of capability that creates new tools, new knowledge, and even redefines the paradigms of "problems" and "solutions."
From the Agricultural Revolution to the Industrial Revolution, technological leaps have always revolved around the extension and replacement of human physical labor. The Information Revolution, however, focuses on expanding human perception and information-processing capabilities. Generative and large language models, in particular, directly touch upon the core domains of human cognition: learning, reasoning, creation, and decision-making. This implies that their impact will permeate all production processes reliant on knowledge and intelligence. Gates predicts that by 2029, society should be prepared to respond to the profound transformations they will bring about. This timeline is not arbitrarily set; it roughly corresponds to a potential tipping point that current model capabilities may reach as they develop along an exponential curve. By then, the role of AI assistants in supporting or even replacing many white-collar tasks will become widespread and impossible to ignore.
Observations indicate that Gates' optimism is centered on the potential to address global resource inequality. He envisions it becoming an omnipresent super-tutor and health advisor, providing nearly free, high-level services to regions lacking quality teachers and doctors. In the medical field, AI-driven drug development and disease diagnosis could shorten the攻克周期 for some疑难病症 by several times within the next decade. However, the realization of this inclusive vision heavily depends on the choice of technological pathways, data access rights, and governance frameworks. If the system and its benefits are monopolized by a few giants or deeply entangled in geopolitical divisions, it may not only fail to bridge the digital divide but could widen it into an insurmountable cliff.
Pandora's Box: When Open Source Meets Synthetic Biology
The most unsettling part of Bill Gates' warning is undoubtedly his direct link between AI and the risk of bioterrorism. He pointed out that one of the "greater risks than a pandemic caused by natural causes" facing the world today is non-governmental organizations using open-source AI tools to design bioterrorism weapons. This warning is not unfounded; it is built upon the convergence of two major trends in recent years. The most unsettling part of Bill Gates' warning is undoubtedly his direct link between AI and the risk of bioterrorism. He pointed out that one of the "greater risks than a pandemic caused by natural causes" facing the world today is non-governmental organizations using open-source AI tools to design bioterrorism weapons. This warning is not unfounded; it is built upon the convergence of two major trends in recent years.
First, the field of synthetic biology is becoming increasingly "democratized." The costs of gene sequencing and editing (e.g., CRISPR) have plummeted, while related knowledge and experimental protocols are widely disseminated on the internet. This means that the technical barriers and material costs required to create or modify pathogens have been significantly reduced. Second, artificial intelligence, represented by large language models, has demonstrated remarkable capabilities in understanding and generating complex instructions, designing molecular structures, and predicting protein folding. In 2023, a team of experts from the Nuclear Threat Initiative and the Munich Security Conference explicitly pointed out that leveraging existing and emerging AI-based biodesign tools to create new pathogens is becoming a realistic threat.
Combining these two elements reveals a dangerous scenario: a malicious actor with basic biological knowledge, though not a top expert, could leverage an open-source biological design platform by inputting prompts such as "design a respiratory pathogen with high transmissibility, resistance to existing antibiotics, and a long incubation period." The model could scan vast amounts of publicly available research literature, genetic databases, and patent information, generating multiple feasible pathogen design plans, synthesis pathways, and even methods to evade detection in a short time. This would essentially equip a potential bioterrorist with an "evil scientist" assistant possessing the entirety of human biomedical knowledge and tireless efficiency.
Gates' warning actually points to a grim reality: we are on the eve of a paradigm shift in biosecurity. Traditional biodefense primarily targets known pathogens that evolve naturally or are studied by state actors. In contrast, AI-enabled biodesign threats are unknown, on-demand, and potentially initiated by small non-state actors. The difficulty of defense has escalated from "identifying known threats" to "predicting infinite possible unknown threats." The investigation by UK regulators into the use of the X platform's AI chatbot Grok for generating illegal content is merely a superficial manifestation of AI capabilities being abused. When abuse shifts from the information domain to the biological realm of the physical world, its potential consequences will be catastrophic.
The Shockwaves of Social Structure: Employment, Power, and the Reconstruction of Human Self-Worth
Beyond extreme security threats, Bill Gates is equally deeply concerned about the systemic impact on the global job market and social structure. He foresees that AI-driven automation will replace humans in "most activities," which is not a distant science fiction scenario but an imminent challenge. Unlike the Industrial Revolution, which replaced manual labor, this shockwave will directly strike at the heart of knowledge workers and the creative class.
This substitution is not a simple disappearance of positions, but a complex process of value transfer and power restructuring. Highly structured jobs reliant on information processing and pattern recognition—such as basic legal document review, routine medical image analysis, standardized financial reporting, content translation, and customer service—will be the first to bear the brunt. But this is just the beginning. With the development of multimodal and embodied intelligence, more fields involving physical operations and real-time decision-making, such as advanced manufacturing, logistics management, and even certain surgical procedures, will also be gradually impacted.
Gates proposed a socially reformative vision: with the release of immense productive forces, humanity might be able to shorten the weekly working hours and even collectively decide to prohibit certain areas. This suggests a possibility: transforming technological dividends into "time benefits" and "freedom of choice" for all citizens. However, this path is fraught with challenges. It requires society to undertake fundamental changes in wealth distribution mechanisms, such as exploring universal basic income (UBI) or similar social dividend systems, to ensure that displaced workers can share in the wealth created by automation rather than being plunged into unemployment.
A deeper tremor concerns humanity's self-perception and value. If AI reaches or even surpasses human levels in an increasing number of cognitive and creative tasks, the philosophical question of "what constitutes the unique value of humanity" will become extremely urgent. The goal of education may need to shift from knowledge indoctrination to areas that are difficult to replicate: ethical judgment in complex situations, cross-cultural empathy and communication, the ability to pose disruptive questions, and the intrinsic drive to pursue meaning itself. Society must guide AI to become a tool for enhancing human capabilities ( ) rather than a mere substitute ( ), but this requires forward-looking policy design, a reshaping of the education system, and constraints on corporate ethics.
Narrow Time Window: The Urgency of Governance, Preparation, and Global Cooperation
A strong sense of urgency runs throughout Bill Gates' discussion. He emphasizes that the window of opportunity to address both immense potential and risks is narrowing. The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the devastating human and economic costs when the global response to clear warnings is delayed. In the face of AI, we must not repeat the mistake of being "underprepared."
An effective governance framework is at the core of addressing these challenges. This is by no means a task that any single country can accomplish; it requires unprecedented global coordination. The list of governance issues is long and complex: How can international safety testing and certification standards be established for the development and release of powerful AI models (especially open-source models)? How can we globally monitor and prevent AI technology from being used for malicious purposes such as biological weapons design, without stifling legitimate scientific research? How can balanced rules for cross-border data flow and privacy protection be established? How can consensus be reached on the identification, copyright, and legal liability of AI-generated content?
Gates hinted that the year 2025, as a preparatory milestone, represents the final buffer period for governments, international organizations, tech companies, and civil society to establish these rules and enhance response capabilities. Preparations include technical aspects, such as heavily investing in safety alignment research, developing defenses capable of detecting generated biological designs, and building more robust public health monitoring and response systems. They also encompass social and policy dimensions, such as implementing large-scale workforce retraining programs, piloting new social security models, and integrating literacy and ethics courses into education at all levels.
Ultimately, Bill Gates' warning serves as a parable about choice. Devoid of its own will, it amplifies human intention and capability. It can be a torch illuminating the dark corners of global health and educational inequality, or a key unlocking the Pandora's box of bioterrorism; it can be a tool liberating humanity from repetitive labor, or a wedge tearing apart the fabric of social employment. We stand at this crossroads. The optimism Gates preserves in his "footnote" rests entirely on one assumption: that collective human wisdom can act preemptively—with sufficient foresight, courage, and spirit of cooperation—to harness this most powerful technological force in history, steering it ultimately toward the well-being of all humanity, rather than toward destruction.
History will judge whether our generation became wise Prometheuses or clumsy Dr. Frankensteins. The answer lies in our actions at this very moment.