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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

Weekly brief
gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

Weekly brief
fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

Weekly brief
de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

Weekly brief
ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

Weekly brief
tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

Weekly brief
Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us48

Oil prices surge above $90 as Iran attacks tankers and Kuwaiti infrastructure

Iranian attacks on oil tankers and Kuwaiti infrastructure escalated the Middle East conflict, pushing Brent crude above $90 per barrel for the first time since June. The violence follows the deaths of three U.S. service members and a breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei accused President Trump of violating the agreement and pledged a strong response, while Trump dismissed the remarks. Higher oil prices risk increasing gasoline costs and global inflation, as market shock absorbers like strategic reserves erode. The U.S. national average gasoline price is near $4 per gallon and expected to rise. Additionally, Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have prompted Russia to ban diesel exports, adding to refined product market strains.

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Iranian attacks on oil tankers and Kuwaiti infrastructure escalated the Middle East conflict, pushing Brent crude above $90 per barrel for the first time since June. The violence follows the deaths of three U.S. service members and a breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei accused President Trump of violating the agreement and pledged a strong response, while Trump dismissed the remarks. Higher oil prices risk increasing gasoline costs and global inflation, as market shock absorbers like strategic reserves erode. The U.S. national average gasoline price is near $4 per gallon and expected to rise. Additionally, Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have prompted Russia to ban diesel exports, adding to refined product market strains.

ua48

Estonian FM Tsahkna calls for deeper sanctions after Russia's massive ballistic missile attack on Kyiv

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called for intensified international sanctions and continued strategic isolation of Russia following a Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv that involved approximately 40 missiles, including Iskander-M, Zircon, and S-400 types. The attack caused one fatality, 17 injuries, and damage across multiple districts. Tsahkna argued that Moscow resorts to terror when strategic gains slip away and that pressure must be sustained.

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Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called for intensified international sanctions and continued strategic isolation of Russia following a Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv that involved approximately 40 missiles, including Iskander-M, Zircon, and S-400 types. The attack caused one fatality, 17 injuries, and damage across multiple districts. Tsahkna argued that Moscow resorts to terror when strategic gains slip away and that pressure must be sustained.

us46

US gas prices hit $4 per gallon as Iran conflict reignites and Strait of Hormuz blockade resumes

The US national average gas price has risen to $4 per gallon as the US-Iran conflict escalates following the collapse of a ceasefire. Iran resumed attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US reinstated a naval blockade, reducing ship traffic. Oil prices surged, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising from $67 to $82 per barrel and Brent crude from $70 to $88 per barrel. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated the US will ensure traffic flow through the strait with or without Iranian cooperation. The price increase threatens Republican prospects in the midterm elections, as studies show a 10-cent rise in gas prices correlates with a 0.6% drop in presidential approval.

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The US national average gas price has risen to $4 per gallon as the US-Iran conflict escalates following the collapse of a ceasefire. Iran resumed attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US reinstated a naval blockade, reducing ship traffic. Oil prices surged, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising from $67 to $82 per barrel and Brent crude from $70 to $88 per barrel. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated the US will ensure traffic flow through the strait with or without Iranian cooperation. The price increase threatens Republican prospects in the midterm elections, as studies show a 10-cent rise in gas prices correlates with a 0.6% drop in presidential approval.

gb45

UK PM Burnham scraps digital ID scheme, redirects funds to cost of living

Incoming UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has scrapped the proposed 'BritCard' digital ID scheme, redirecting an estimated £1.8 billion ($2.4 billion) over three years to cost-of-living priorities. The decision reverses a policy introduced by predecessor Sir Keir Starmer, which faced widespread opposition from civil liberties and digital inclusion campaigners and was criticized as a 'fiasco' by the Home Affairs Committee. The scheme had already been downgraded from mandatory to voluntary after nearly three million people signed a petition against it. Burnham's move, his first major policy pledge, will be formalized after he meets King Charles III on Monday. The funds will be redirected to 'helping with the cost of living', though some warn other government systems could evolve into a de facto digital ID.

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Incoming UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has scrapped the proposed 'BritCard' digital ID scheme, redirecting an estimated £1.8 billion ($2.4 billion) over three years to cost-of-living priorities. The decision reverses a policy introduced by predecessor Sir Keir Starmer, which faced widespread opposition from civil liberties and digital inclusion campaigners and was criticized as a 'fiasco' by the Home Affairs Committee. The scheme had already been downgraded from mandatory to voluntary after nearly three million people signed a petition against it. Burnham's move, his first major policy pledge, will be formalized after he meets King Charles III on Monday. The funds will be redirected to 'helping with the cost of living', though some warn other government systems could evolve into a de facto digital ID.

fr44

Mélenchon attacks Franco-German nuclear cooperation, threatens to break ties

French left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon has attacked the emerging nuclear cooperation between France and Germany, accusing President Macron of planning to share command of French nuclear weapons with Berlin. Mélenchon's rhetoric taps into French anxieties about declining influence and is seen as a campaign tactic ahead of elections, risking geopolitical tensions.

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French left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon has attacked the emerging nuclear cooperation between France and Germany, accusing President Macron of planning to share command of French nuclear weapons with Berlin. Mélenchon's rhetoric taps into French anxieties about declining influence and is seen as a campaign tactic ahead of elections, risking geopolitical tensions.

ua44

ISW: Gerasimov Exaggerates Gains; Ukraine Strikes Russian Logistics and Energy Targets

The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov overstated Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast on July 18, with no confirmed gains by either side. Ukrainian strikes on vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov are forcing Russia to redeploy elite drone units from the front, disrupting logistics. Ukraine also struck two Wildberries logistics facilities and Russian oil/energy infrastructure. Mykolaiv Governor Vitaly Kim resigned. Russia launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, two Onyx anti-ship missiles, three Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 90 drones against Ukraine overnight.

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The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov overstated Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast on July 18, with no confirmed gains by either side. Ukrainian strikes on vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov are forcing Russia to redeploy elite drone units from the front, disrupting logistics. Ukraine also struck two Wildberries logistics facilities and Russian oil/energy infrastructure. Mykolaiv Governor Vitaly Kim resigned. Russia launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, two Onyx anti-ship missiles, three Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 90 drones against Ukraine overnight.

de44

Algeria seeks larger EU energy role amid regional tensions

During President Abdelmadjid Tebboune's first official visit to Berlin since 2019, Algeria and Germany agreed to deepen energy ties, including expanding natural gas supplies and establishing a southern hydrogen corridor from North Africa to Germany. The war in Iran and disruption of Gulf oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz have reinforced Algeria's strategic importance for European energy security, as its pipeline gas reaches southern Europe without passing through Gulf shipping lanes. Algeria's state-owned Sonatrach delivered its first LNG shipment directly to Germany's Wilhelmshaven 1 terminal on July 2, 2026. Algeria also offers cooperation on counterterrorism, migration management, and Mediterranean stability. However, Algeria continues to grapple with domestic political repression, high youth unemployment (estimated 29–30%), and regional isolation over the Western Sahara issue, with the US, Spain, France, and several African nations recognizing Morocco's sovereignty. Algeria is also seeking to repair ties with Mali and Niger and supports a political solution for Libya.

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During President Abdelmadjid Tebboune's first official visit to Berlin since 2019, Algeria and Germany agreed to deepen energy ties, including expanding natural gas supplies and establishing a southern hydrogen corridor from North Africa to Germany. The war in Iran and disruption of Gulf oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz have reinforced Algeria's strategic importance for European energy security, as its pipeline gas reaches southern Europe without passing through Gulf shipping lanes. Algeria's state-owned Sonatrach delivered its first LNG shipment directly to Germany's Wilhelmshaven 1 terminal on July 2, 2026. Algeria also offers cooperation on counterterrorism, migration management, and Mediterranean stability. However, Algeria continues to grapple with domestic political repression, high youth unemployment (estimated 29–30%), and regional isolation over the Western Sahara issue, with the US, Spain, France, and several African nations recognizing Morocco's sovereignty. Algeria is also seeking to repair ties with Mali and Niger and supports a political solution for Libya.

tr43

Turkish Vice President and Top Military Officials Visit TRNC for 52nd Anniversary of Cyprus Peace Operation

Background: The TRNC and Turkey have been strengthening security and diplomatic ties amid tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Today: Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, Defense Minister Yasar Guler, Chief of General Staff Gen. Selcuk Bayraktaroglu, Land Forces Commander Gen. Metin Tokel, and Deputy National Defense Minister Salih Ayhan visited the TRNC for the 52nd anniversary of the Turkish Peace Operation. They inspected Turkish military units, including the 28th Mechanized Infantry Division Command, met TRNC President Tufan Erhurman, and visited the Museum of Barbarism, which documents EOKA atrocities against Turkish Cypriots. President Erdogan and Foreign Minister Fidan issued statements reaffirming Turkey's commitment to the TRNC.

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Background: The TRNC and Turkey have been strengthening security and diplomatic ties amid tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Today: Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, Defense Minister Yasar Guler, Chief of General Staff Gen. Selcuk Bayraktaroglu, Land Forces Commander Gen. Metin Tokel, and Deputy National Defense Minister Salih Ayhan visited the TRNC for the 52nd anniversary of the Turkish Peace Operation. They inspected Turkish military units, including the 28th Mechanized Infantry Division Command, met TRNC President Tufan Erhurman, and visited the Museum of Barbarism, which documents EOKA atrocities against Turkish Cypriots. President Erdogan and Foreign Minister Fidan issued statements reaffirming Turkey's commitment to the TRNC.

ua41

Russian drone strikes passenger train in Zaporizhzhia, injuring conductor

A Russian drone struck a passenger train in the Zaporizhzhia region, injuring a railway conductor. Ukrainian Railways reported that an advanced evacuation command prevented widespread casualties among passengers. The injured conductor received light injuries. Passengers were transported to Zaporizhzhia city by bus. The attack followed a massive ballistic missile barrage on Kyiv earlier the same day.

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A Russian drone struck a passenger train in the Zaporizhzhia region, injuring a railway conductor. Ukrainian Railways reported that an advanced evacuation command prevented widespread casualties among passengers. The injured conductor received light injuries. Passengers were transported to Zaporizhzhia city by bus. The attack followed a massive ballistic missile barrage on Kyiv earlier the same day.

us40

Trump urges adding Iran to Russia sanctions bill in honor of Lindsey Graham

President Donald Trump called on Congress to add Iran-related provisions to the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, a bipartisan bill authored by the late Senator Lindsey Graham, framing the addition as fulfilling Graham's intent. The bill, which includes secondary tariffs on major purchasers of Russian oil and gas to pressure Moscow into Ukraine peace negotiations, had stalled amid Trump's negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin but gained momentum after Graham's death. Trump's push comes amid escalating US-Iran conflict, with retaliatory US strikes following Iranian attacks that killed two US service members in Jordan. Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal expressed concern that reopening the bill could cause delays.

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President Donald Trump called on Congress to add Iran-related provisions to the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, a bipartisan bill authored by the late Senator Lindsey Graham, framing the addition as fulfilling Graham's intent. The bill, which includes secondary tariffs on major purchasers of Russian oil and gas to pressure Moscow into Ukraine peace negotiations, had stalled amid Trump's negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin but gained momentum after Graham's death. Trump's push comes amid escalating US-Iran conflict, with retaliatory US strikes following Iranian attacks that killed two US service members in Jordan. Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal expressed concern that reopening the bill could cause delays.