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Global Briefing July 13

US Imposes 20% Toll on Strait of Hormuz Shipping

Donald Trump declared the United States “guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz and said Washington would be reimbursed 20 percent on all cargo moving through it — the same toll Marco Rubio insisted in June that Iran had no right to levy. Iran answered by closing the strait after its Revolutionary Guard struck the container ship GFS Galaxy; crossings fell to six in two days and Brent closed at $78.82. In Paris, ten countries launched a missile-defence coalition of their own.

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us · United States

Trump Imposes 20% Hormuz Strait Toll as Senate Stalls War Funding

Trump declared the US "Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz" and demanded 20% of all cargo transiting it — a tax on world trade that no Congress voted. It landed as his $87.6bn war supplemental reached a Senate that has lost Lindsey Graham to an aortic dissection and Mitch McConnell to a month in hospital, with funding lapsing five weeks before the midterms. He threatened Iran with 1,000 missiles, then agreed to keep talking; Brent settled near $76.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Locks Decade of Commitments Before Burnham Takes Over

Andy Burnham becomes prime minister on 20 July with 322 of 403 Labour MPs behind him and less room to move than any incoming leader in a decade. In its final week Starmer's government cancelled the Type 83 destroyer, proscribed Iran's IRGC and joined an anti-ballistic missile pact in Paris. Counterterrorism police broke up an alleged far-right plot against a 15,000-strong Muslim gathering in Suffolk and took over the Ann Widdecombe murder inquiry; researchers put May and June heat deaths above 2,700.

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fr · France

Macron's Last Bastille Day: Building Europe the RN Opposes

Macron's last Bastille Day brought a missile-defence coalition with Ukraine and nine European states; the same week put Le Pen 54-46 ahead in a runoff. A court cut her ineligibility on 7 July and she declared for 2027 that night; Ifop gives her 36 percent to Édouard Philippe's 19. In the Assembly, the RN voted with the government to pass the police firearms bill 313-199. Fontainebleau burned, arson suspected, as three reactors shut in the heat.

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de · Germany

Merz Buys Tomahawks as US Sets 20% Hormuz Toll

Germany bought a US long-range strike force on 9 July, days before Washington reimposed its Hormuz blockade with a 20 percent levy on all transiting cargo. Up to 400 Tomahawk Block Vb rounds will sit on German soil by 2029 and Helsing raised $1.8bn at an $18bn valuation. At home parliament cut €18.8bn from health and offered its cities €1bn a year against a €30bn deficit, as the AfD hit 41 percent in Saxony-Anhalt.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine War Machine Outgrows State as Mobilization Crisis Deepens

Ukraine had its best military week of the war and one of its worst political ones: drone crews struck 76 Russian vessels in six days, shut the Kerch Strait and pushed Russian oil refining to a 21-year low. Yet not one of the 23 ballistic missiles fired at Kyiv on 5-6 July was intercepted, a Lviv crowd overturned an army recruitment van, and Zelensky's answer was to ask parliament for 90 more days of martial law and mobilisation.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Hosts NATO Summit, Leaves Without F-35 Jets

Türkiye hosted NATO's 36th summit in Erdoğan's palace and left holding promises: Trump withheld the F-35, and the Iran ceasefire collapsed as the alliance met. Days later prosecutors ordered 968 Gülenist detentions across all 81 provinces and raided CHP-run Çankaya, arresting Ankara's district mayor at the airport, while a GENAR poll put the AK Party eight points clear at 36.2%. Ankara takes what it can take, and waits for what must be given.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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fr48

Large wildfire in Fontainebleau forest south of Paris suspected arson, burns 800 hectares

A large wildfire in the Fontainebleau forest south of Paris has burned 800 hectares, forcing the closure of the A6 highway and disrupting rail services during a busy holiday weekend. Nearly 400 firefighters and water-bombing planes are battling the blaze, which Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said may have been deliberately set due to multiple ignition points. The fire occurs during a heatwave that has also forced the temporary shutdown of three nuclear power plants. The blaze is of exceptional scale and marks the first time firefighting planes from southern France have been deployed to the Paris region. The wildfire remains uncontained, with a new fire detected, and has now consumed 5% of the forest massif. Record heat on Sunday is giving way to slightly cooler temperatures on Monday in western France, but drought conditions continue to exacerbate the fire risk.

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A large wildfire in the Fontainebleau forest south of Paris has burned 800 hectares, forcing the closure of the A6 highway and disrupting rail services during a busy holiday weekend. Nearly 400 firefighters and water-bombing planes are battling the blaze, which Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said may have been deliberately set due to multiple ignition points. The fire occurs during a heatwave that has also forced the temporary shutdown of three nuclear power plants. The blaze is of exceptional scale and marks the first time firefighting planes from southern France have been deployed to the Paris region. The wildfire remains uncontained, with a new fire detected, and has now consumed 5% of the forest massif. Record heat on Sunday is giving way to slightly cooler temperatures on Monday in western France, but drought conditions continue to exacerbate the fire risk.

fr48

Marine Le Pen convicted of embezzlement, announces 2027 presidential bid amid legal battle

Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzling EU funds by the Paris Court of Appeal, receiving a 3-year sentence (1 year electronic bracelet), a fine, and a 45-month political ban (30 months suspended). She announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and will appeal to the Court of Cassation. The article profiles likely candidates Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Edouard Philippe, highlighting Le Pen's strong chance of reaching the second round but uncertainty over her opponent.

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Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzling EU funds by the Paris Court of Appeal, receiving a 3-year sentence (1 year electronic bracelet), a fine, and a 45-month political ban (30 months suspended). She announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and will appeal to the Court of Cassation. The article profiles likely candidates Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Edouard Philippe, highlighting Le Pen's strong chance of reaching the second round but uncertainty over her opponent.

us48

U.S. Deploys Kamikaze Drone Boats in Combat for First Time, Strikes Iranian Naval Facility

On July 12, 2026, U.S. Central Command used Saronic Corsair unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in a strike role for the first time in combat, hitting a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Iran's Bandar Abbas Naval Base. The attack escalates ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over control of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of a ceasefire. President Trump announced the U.S. would take over management of the Strait, reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and impose a 20% toll on cargo. This precedent-setting use of kamikaze USVs marks a new chapter in U.S. naval operations, potentially reducing reliance on crewed aircraft for strikes.

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On July 12, 2026, U.S. Central Command used Saronic Corsair unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in a strike role for the first time in combat, hitting a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Iran's Bandar Abbas Naval Base. The attack escalates ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities over control of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of a ceasefire. President Trump announced the U.S. would take over management of the Strait, reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and impose a 20% toll on cargo. This precedent-setting use of kamikaze USVs marks a new chapter in U.S. naval operations, potentially reducing reliance on crewed aircraft for strikes.

us48

Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade stalls US nuclear negotiations

Background: The US-Israeli war against Iran has entered its third month with no end in sight, characterized by an indefinite impasse, no good deal possible, Washington losing the initiative, Israel's complicating role, and Iran's asymmetric advantage in defining victory as regime survival. Today: A new analysis argues that Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevents the US from securing nuclear concessions, as Tehran uses its ability to disrupt shipping as leverage. The US military campaign has failed to break the impasse, and the standoff is harming both economies, with Iran facing domestic pressure from economic hardship. The analysis further emphasizes that Iran's blockade remains an effective asymmetric lever that the US cannot neutralize through military strikes, and that Iran has no incentive to reopen the strait before negotiations.

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Background: The US-Israeli war against Iran has entered its third month with no end in sight, characterized by an indefinite impasse, no good deal possible, Washington losing the initiative, Israel's complicating role, and Iran's asymmetric advantage in defining victory as regime survival. Today: A new analysis argues that Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevents the US from securing nuclear concessions, as Tehran uses its ability to disrupt shipping as leverage. The US military campaign has failed to break the impasse, and the standoff is harming both economies, with Iran facing domestic pressure from economic hardship. The analysis further emphasizes that Iran's blockade remains an effective asymmetric lever that the US cannot neutralize through military strikes, and that Iran has no incentive to reopen the strait before negotiations.

ua48

Ukrainian drones strike Kuban-Crimea power bridge and 11 energy hubs in occupied Crimea

On 12-13 July, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck the Kuban-Crimea power bridge, the main electricity supply line from mainland Russia to occupied Crimea, and 11 energy hubs in occupied territories. The operation, dubbed 'Crimean Switch Off and Air Defence Fall', also hit five air defense elements, including S-400, Pantsir-S1, Tor, and Nebo-U systems. On the night of July 13, Ukrainian Defense Forces additionally struck a Russian Nebo-U radar station and an S-400 surface-to-air missile system in the Kerch area of Crimea, along with multiple vessels in the Sea of Azov, including seven tankers, five dry cargo ships, two tugs, and one ferry. The tankers are used to transport Russian oil and petroleum products in circumvention of international sanctions, while the ferries support military logistics and cargo transportation for the Russian Armed Forces. The strikes have worsened electricity shortages in Crimea, with regions regularly experiencing prolonged blackouts. Russia has declared a regional state of emergency in Crimea and Sevastopol. The extent of the damage is being clarified.

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On 12-13 July, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck the Kuban-Crimea power bridge, the main electricity supply line from mainland Russia to occupied Crimea, and 11 energy hubs in occupied territories. The operation, dubbed 'Crimean Switch Off and Air Defence Fall', also hit five air defense elements, including S-400, Pantsir-S1, Tor, and Nebo-U systems. On the night of July 13, Ukrainian Defense Forces additionally struck a Russian Nebo-U radar station and an S-400 surface-to-air missile system in the Kerch area of Crimea, along with multiple vessels in the Sea of Azov, including seven tankers, five dry cargo ships, two tugs, and one ferry. The tankers are used to transport Russian oil and petroleum products in circumvention of international sanctions, while the ferries support military logistics and cargo transportation for the Russian Armed Forces. The strikes have worsened electricity shortages in Crimea, with regions regularly experiencing prolonged blackouts. Russia has declared a regional state of emergency in Crimea and Sevastopol. The extent of the damage is being clarified.

ua48

Russian oil refining output hits 21-year low after Ukrainian strikes

Background: Ukrainian drone strikes in May 2026 forced six major Russian refineries to halt operations, causing a 16-year low in refinery runs and a 20% drop in diesel production. Today: Russia's crude oil refining output fell to 3.91 million barrels per day in July 2026, the lowest since 2005, as Ukrainian drone and missile strikes hit at least 24 of 34 large refineries in 50 attacks over 100 days. The resulting domestic fuel crisis has forced Russia to ban gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel exports, ration fuel, and seek imports from India and Kazakhstan. According to Energy Aspects data cited by Bloomberg, the output drop exceeds 60%.

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Background: Ukrainian drone strikes in May 2026 forced six major Russian refineries to halt operations, causing a 16-year low in refinery runs and a 20% drop in diesel production. Today: Russia's crude oil refining output fell to 3.91 million barrels per day in July 2026, the lowest since 2005, as Ukrainian drone and missile strikes hit at least 24 of 34 large refineries in 50 attacks over 100 days. The resulting domestic fuel crisis has forced Russia to ban gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel exports, ration fuel, and seek imports from India and Kazakhstan. According to Energy Aspects data cited by Bloomberg, the output drop exceeds 60%.

gb48

UK counterterrorism police take over murder investigation of Ann Widdecombe, suspect rearrested on terrorism charges

Background: Ann Widdecombe, a former Conservative minister and Reform UK politician, was found dead at her home in Devon with serious injuries; a 26-year-old man was initially arrested on suspicion of murder but police did not treat it as terrorism. Counterterrorism police have since taken over the investigation after new information and evidence emerged. The suspect, a 28-year-old white British man from Rotherham, was rearrested on suspicion of commission, preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism, having previously been arrested on suspicion of murder on Saturday and released before being rearrested. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood confirmed a terrorist motive is now being considered, marking a significant shift from the initial assessment. Mahmood told Parliament the suspect was not known to the Prevent counter-extremism program. She offered Reform UK leader Nigel Farage a meeting with the chair of the Royal and VIP Executive Committee (RAVEC) to discuss security concerns. In the Commons, MPs debated online hate, social media accountability, and the need to protect MPs' private addresses. Mahmood said she would consider providing security guidance for former MPs and review lessons from the murder of MP David Amess. Police released CCTV footage showing the suspect in Rotherham hours before the attack, with a long object protruding from his pocket. A neighbor described armed police raiding the suspect's home. Police have received over 120 reports from the public. Police are pursuing multiple lines of inquiry to establish the motivation for the attack.

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Background: Ann Widdecombe, a former Conservative minister and Reform UK politician, was found dead at her home in Devon with serious injuries; a 26-year-old man was initially arrested on suspicion of murder but police did not treat it as terrorism. Counterterrorism police have since taken over the investigation after new information and evidence emerged. The suspect, a 28-year-old white British man from Rotherham, was rearrested on suspicion of commission, preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism, having previously been arrested on suspicion of murder on Saturday and released before being rearrested. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood confirmed a terrorist motive is now being considered, marking a significant shift from the initial assessment. Mahmood told Parliament the suspect was not known to the Prevent counter-extremism program. She offered Reform UK leader Nigel Farage a meeting with the chair of the Royal and VIP Executive Committee (RAVEC) to discuss security concerns. In the Commons, MPs debated online hate, social media accountability, and the need to protect MPs' private addresses. Mahmood said she would consider providing security guidance for former MPs and review lessons from the murder of MP David Amess. Police released CCTV footage showing the suspect in Rotherham hours before the attack, with a long object protruding from his pocket. A neighbor described armed police raiding the suspect's home. Police have received over 120 reports from the public. Police are pursuing multiple lines of inquiry to establish the motivation for the attack.

gb48

UK police arrest 12 over far-right terror plot targeting Islamic event in Suffolk

British counter-terrorism police arrested 12 individuals, including three on suspicion of conspiracy to murder, in connection with an alleged extreme right-wing plot to attack the UK Ijtima Islamic gathering at Shrubland Hall in Suffolk. The event, attended by 15,000 people, was closed early as a precaution. Arrests were made across multiple locations including Greater Manchester, London, Essex, Ipswich, and Surrey. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood stated the police response saved lives. The investigation is classified as right-wing terrorism related.

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British counter-terrorism police arrested 12 individuals, including three on suspicion of conspiracy to murder, in connection with an alleged extreme right-wing plot to attack the UK Ijtima Islamic gathering at Shrubland Hall in Suffolk. The event, attended by 15,000 people, was closed early as a precaution. Arrests were made across multiple locations including Greater Manchester, London, Essex, Ipswich, and Surrey. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood stated the police response saved lives. The investigation is classified as right-wing terrorism related.

tr48

Türkiye launches nationwide FETÖ sweep, seeks 968 suspects across all 81 provinces

Background: Turkish authorities have been conducting ongoing operations against the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), detaining 24 suspects across 11 provinces in May 2026. Today, on July 13, 2026, Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek announced a massive nationwide operation across all 81 provinces targeting 968 suspected FETÖ members, ahead of the 10th anniversary of the 2016 coup attempt. The provinces with the largest number of suspects are Ankara, Izmir, and Istanbul. The ministers stated that since 2013, proceedings have been initiated against 720,338 people, with 127,102 convicted, and that 1,065 operations were carried out in the first half of 2026, resulting in 2,451 detentions. Investigations and trials are ongoing for another 83,404 suspects.

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Background: Turkish authorities have been conducting ongoing operations against the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), detaining 24 suspects across 11 provinces in May 2026. Today, on July 13, 2026, Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek announced a massive nationwide operation across all 81 provinces targeting 968 suspected FETÖ members, ahead of the 10th anniversary of the 2016 coup attempt. The provinces with the largest number of suspects are Ankara, Izmir, and Istanbul. The ministers stated that since 2013, proceedings have been initiated against 720,338 people, with 127,102 convicted, and that 1,065 operations were carried out in the first half of 2026, resulting in 2,451 detentions. Investigations and trials are ongoing for another 83,404 suspects.

tr48

Turkey orders nearly 1,000 arrests ahead of coup anniversary

Turkish authorities have ordered the arrest of nearly 1,000 people with alleged ties to the Gülen movement, days before the tenth anniversary of the failed 2016 military coup. Justice Minister Akin Gürlek and Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi described the operation as a major purge targeting a 'treacherous network' threatening the state. The crackdown continues the pattern of mass arrests and dismissals that followed the coup attempt, which President Erdoğan used to consolidate power.

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Turkish authorities have ordered the arrest of nearly 1,000 people with alleged ties to the Gülen movement, days before the tenth anniversary of the failed 2016 military coup. Justice Minister Akin Gürlek and Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi described the operation as a major purge targeting a 'treacherous network' threatening the state. The crackdown continues the pattern of mass arrests and dismissals that followed the coup attempt, which President Erdoğan used to consolidate power.