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us · United States

Trump's 250th Birthday Speech: Iran War, Polls, Economy

Donald Trump marked America's 250th Independence Day by claiming Iran's military had been destroyed and warning of a "communist" threat, but the week's numbers cut against the pageantry: a Financial Times poll found 58 percent of voters say the $67 billion Iran war wasn't worth it, June payrolls rose just 57,000, and Republicans Mike DeWine and Mike Lawler broke with the White House over deporting 350,000 Haitian TPS holders.

Weekly brief
gb · United Kingdom

Britain's £300B Defence Plan Not Enough for Washington

Outgoing premier Keir Starmer took a record £298 billion defence plan — £63 billion of it for new nuclear submarines and warheads — to his final NATO summit, only for Washington's ambassador to brand Britain a laggard. The rebuke came as the IISS confirmed Russian drones had spied on US airbases in England and a Tu-142 shadowed carrier HMS Prince of Wales in the Arctic, while at home a maternity scandal forced new witness rules and Farage faced a fresh funding probe.

Weekly brief
fr · France

France 2027: Le Pen Ruling Looms as Philippe Launches Bid

France spent the week auditioning its 2027 presidential field hours before a Paris court's July 7 ruling on whether Marine Le Pen, running near-even with Jordan Bardella at roughly 35 percent in the polls, will even be allowed to stand. Edouard Philippe launched his centrist bid before more than 5,000 supporters in Paris; Fabien Roussel won re-election as Communist leader; and wildfires that burned past 10,000 hectares forced thousands to evacuate, reopening a government climate-response fight. Thales, meanwhile, agreed to buy Exail for 3.9 billion euros.

Weekly brief
de · Germany

Germany Unveils Reform Plan as AfD Surges in Polls

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's coalition struck a 34-point reform deal -- about €10 billion in tax relief and a doctor's-note requirement from day one of sick leave -- aimed at blunting the AfD, which now polls 41 percent in Saxony-Anhalt; days later the party re-elected Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla at its Erfurt congress as Defense Minister Boris Pistorius vowed to withhold state secrets from any AfD-led government. Berlin also summoned China's ambassador over reports it trained Russian troops and launched a sovereign combat-cloud project independent of France.

Weekly brief
ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Drones Win War Air Defences Cannot — $404K

Russia's heaviest strike on Kyiv in weeks -- 68 missiles and 351 drones, all 29 ballistic missiles getting through for want of Patriot interceptors -- killed at least 14 before Zelensky pressed NATO's Ankara summit for more. Ukraine's naval drones have destroyed roughly a third of Russia's Black Sea Fleet; June strikes hit a record 200,000 Russian targets. ISW called Putin's claimed capture of Kostiantynivka staged propaganda; Medvedev floated a "security zone" into Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv as a Zaluzhnyi challenge to Zelensky rattled Kyiv.

Weekly brief
tr · Turkey

NATO Summit in Ankara as Erdoğan Tightens Domestic Grip

Turkey hosts NATO's Ankara summit this week -- Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan vows Ankara will help define “NATO 3.0” -- even as courts ejected opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu from his own corruption trial and prosecutors arrested a comedian for mocking Erdoğan. Trump meets Zelensky and Syria's Ahmed al-Sharaa on the sidelines, while Ankara simultaneously deepens a Saudi-Egypt-Pakistan-Qatar axis built to hedge against the very alliance it is co-authoring.

Weekly brief
Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us49

Israel warns US of Iranian assassination plot against Trump, prompting Air Force One security change

Israel provided the Trump administration with intelligence about an Iranian plot to assassinate the US president, leading to a last-minute change in Trump's aircraft for his departure from the NATO summit in Ankara. Trump used an older Air Force One plane instead of the new one gifted by Qatar, citing security concerns. The development comes amid heightened US-Iran tensions following the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and Quds Force commander Soleimani.

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Israel provided the Trump administration with intelligence about an Iranian plot to assassinate the US president, leading to a last-minute change in Trump's aircraft for his departure from the NATO summit in Ankara. Trump used an older Air Force One plane instead of the new one gifted by Qatar, citing security concerns. The development comes amid heightened US-Iran tensions following the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and Quds Force commander Soleimani.

fr48

Marine Le Pen announces 2027 presidential bid as RN courts German conservatives

The French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) has been building diplomatic ties with foreign ambassadors ahead of the 2027 presidential election. On July 7, 2026, Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy after an appeals court upheld her embezzlement conviction and ordered her to wear an electronic ankle monitor. Party leader Jordan Bardella will not run. Polls show the RN candidate likely winning the first round with 32–38% of the vote, though a runoff against center-right candidate Edouard Philippe remains uncertain. The RN continues to distance itself from the German far-right AfD, excluding them from its European Parliament group, while Bardella has praised German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on climate and migration policy and met with the German ambassador. Analysts expect bilateral and EU-level conflicts if the RN wins, but note that Italy's Giorgia Meloni became a reliable partner after her election.

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The French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) has been building diplomatic ties with foreign ambassadors ahead of the 2027 presidential election. On July 7, 2026, Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy after an appeals court upheld her embezzlement conviction and ordered her to wear an electronic ankle monitor. Party leader Jordan Bardella will not run. Polls show the RN candidate likely winning the first round with 32–38% of the vote, though a runoff against center-right candidate Edouard Philippe remains uncertain. The RN continues to distance itself from the German far-right AfD, excluding them from its European Parliament group, while Bardella has praised German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on climate and migration policy and met with the German ambassador. Analysts expect bilateral and EU-level conflicts if the RN wins, but note that Italy's Giorgia Meloni became a reliable partner after her election.

us48

Oil prices jump after Trump declares Iran ceasefire over, US revokes Iranian oil waivers

President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire 'over' and the US conducted new strikes on Iran after renewed Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US revoked temporary waivers that had allowed Iranian oil sales under the MOU. Brent crude rose to $77.53 per barrel, about $5 above the start of the week, though analysts note markets are not pricing in a full return to war. Sustained price increases could reverse recent declines in US gasoline prices.

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President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire 'over' and the US conducted new strikes on Iran after renewed Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US revoked temporary waivers that had allowed Iranian oil sales under the MOU. Brent crude rose to $77.53 per barrel, about $5 above the start of the week, though analysts note markets are not pricing in a full return to war. Sustained price increases could reverse recent declines in US gasoline prices.

ua48

Ukraine strikes 48 Russian vessels in five-day campaign targeting maritime fuel supply to Crimea

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking 48 Russian vessels over five days, including tankers, cargo ships, and ferries in the Sea of Azov, as part of a campaign to disrupt maritime fuel and supply routes to occupied Crimea. The campaign targets Russia's shadow fleet under international sanctions. Satellite imagery shows burning tankers near the Kerch Strait, and Russian tanker traffic has declined sharply. Ukraine also struck the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, fuel depots in Taganrog and Azov, and the Ust-Luga gas condensate complex. The Institute for the Study of War assesses this marks a new phase in isolating Crimea after road and rail routes were degraded.

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Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking 48 Russian vessels over five days, including tankers, cargo ships, and ferries in the Sea of Azov, as part of a campaign to disrupt maritime fuel and supply routes to occupied Crimea. The campaign targets Russia's shadow fleet under international sanctions. Satellite imagery shows burning tankers near the Kerch Strait, and Russian tanker traffic has declined sharply. Ukraine also struck the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, fuel depots in Taganrog and Azov, and the Ust-Luga gas condensate complex. The Institute for the Study of War assesses this marks a new phase in isolating Crimea after road and rail routes were degraded.

ua46

Ukraine Announces New Air Defense Measures for Sumy Region After Over 12,000 Russian Strikes Since Start of 2026

Ukraine's Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced a new package of air defense measures for the Sumy region following intensified Russian strikes that have killed at least 122 people and injured over 1,200 since the start of 2026. The strikes include missiles, drones, guided bombs, and FPV drones, damaging over 2,600 residential buildings, schools, hospitals, and infrastructure. Fedorov stated that some decisions are classified but aimed at significantly strengthening protection against aerial threats, with additional measures to be announced soon.

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Ukraine's Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced a new package of air defense measures for the Sumy region following intensified Russian strikes that have killed at least 122 people and injured over 1,200 since the start of 2026. The strikes include missiles, drones, guided bombs, and FPV drones, damaging over 2,600 residential buildings, schools, hospitals, and infrastructure. Fedorov stated that some decisions are classified but aimed at significantly strengthening protection against aerial threats, with additional measures to be announced soon.

de44

Violence against railway employees in Germany rises sharply

A fatal attack on a train conductor in Rhineland-Palatinate in February 2026 has underscored a sharp increase in violence against railway staff in Germany. New government figures show an average of eight physical attacks per day on railway employees in 2026, up from five per day in 2025. In the first five months of 2026, 1,630 railway employees and 4,672 federal police officers were victims of criminal offenses. In response, Deutsche Bahn is expanding body cameras to long-distance trains, hiring 200 additional security personnel, and developing an emergency button. Experts attribute the rise to societal stress and passengers' frustration with delays, and call for better training and clear safety protocols, emphasizing that conductors should never touch passengers and should have the option to refuse ticket checks if unsafe.

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A fatal attack on a train conductor in Rhineland-Palatinate in February 2026 has underscored a sharp increase in violence against railway staff in Germany. New government figures show an average of eight physical attacks per day on railway employees in 2026, up from five per day in 2025. In the first five months of 2026, 1,630 railway employees and 4,672 federal police officers were victims of criminal offenses. In response, Deutsche Bahn is expanding body cameras to long-distance trains, hiring 200 additional security personnel, and developing an emergency button. Experts attribute the rise to societal stress and passengers' frustration with delays, and call for better training and clear safety protocols, emphasizing that conductors should never touch passengers and should have the option to refuse ticket checks if unsafe.

ua44

Ukrainian drone strike halts operations at Russia's largest oil refinery in Omsk

On June 24, 2026, Ukrainian drones struck the Gazprom Neft-owned Omsk oil refinery, Russia's largest, located over 3,000 km from the border. The attack damaged the CDU-10 crude distillation unit, causing a fire, and forced the shutdown of the CDU-11 unit due to infrastructure damage. The refinery, which processes about 440,000 barrels per day and is Russia's top gasoline producer, has halted operations. Russian Su-57 stealth fighters were deployed to intercept the drones but downed only one, highlighting limitations in their anti-drone capability. The halt is expected to exacerbate fuel shortages; Omsk's largest gas station chain, Topline, suspended gasoline sales to private customers. This is Kyiv's deepest strike into Russia to date.

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On June 24, 2026, Ukrainian drones struck the Gazprom Neft-owned Omsk oil refinery, Russia's largest, located over 3,000 km from the border. The attack damaged the CDU-10 crude distillation unit, causing a fire, and forced the shutdown of the CDU-11 unit due to infrastructure damage. The refinery, which processes about 440,000 barrels per day and is Russia's top gasoline producer, has halted operations. Russian Su-57 stealth fighters were deployed to intercept the drones but downed only one, highlighting limitations in their anti-drone capability. The halt is expected to exacerbate fuel shortages; Omsk's largest gas station chain, Topline, suspended gasoline sales to private customers. This is Kyiv's deepest strike into Russia to date.

gb44

UK confirms all eight Anglo-Dutch amphibious assault ships will be built in British shipyards

Background: The UK and Netherlands had previously announced a joint programme to develop a new class of amphibious transport ships, with a £500 million investment and plans for a combined fleet. Today: UK Defence Minister Luke Pollard confirmed to a joint session of the Treasury and Defence Committees on 8 July that all eight planned Anglo-Dutch Amphibious Transport Ships, including the four vessels destined for the Royal Netherlands Navy, will be built in British shipyards under a £2.4 billion agreement signed at the NATO summit in Ankara by Prime Ministers Keir Starmer and Rob Jetten. Pollard described the arrangement as an export success for British industry. The first ship is expected to enter service in the 2030s, restoring a dedicated amphibious capability for the Royal Navy after the retirement of HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark. The final allocation of work between UK shipyards has yet to be decided, with block construction across multiple sites possible. Navantia UK has publicly positioned its Harland and Wolff yard in Belfast for the programme.

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Background: The UK and Netherlands had previously announced a joint programme to develop a new class of amphibious transport ships, with a £500 million investment and plans for a combined fleet. Today: UK Defence Minister Luke Pollard confirmed to a joint session of the Treasury and Defence Committees on 8 July that all eight planned Anglo-Dutch Amphibious Transport Ships, including the four vessels destined for the Royal Netherlands Navy, will be built in British shipyards under a £2.4 billion agreement signed at the NATO summit in Ankara by Prime Ministers Keir Starmer and Rob Jetten. Pollard described the arrangement as an export success for British industry. The first ship is expected to enter service in the 2030s, restoring a dedicated amphibious capability for the Royal Navy after the retirement of HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark. The final allocation of work between UK shipyards has yet to be decided, with block construction across multiple sites possible. Navantia UK has publicly positioned its Harland and Wolff yard in Belfast for the programme.

ua43

Russian missile strike on Kharkiv kills two, injures 42 including three children

Russian forces launched a missile strike on Kharkiv on Wednesday morning, killing two people (a man and a woman in their 60s) and injuring 42, including three teenagers aged 14, 16, and 17. A missile struck a five-story apartment building in the Nemyshlianskyi district. Preliminary findings suggest the use of a Tornado-S multiple launch rocket system. A separate drone strike hit a gas station in the Kyivskyi district, causing a fire with no casualties. The attack occurred amid a broader overnight aerial assault across Ukraine involving missiles and 169 drones.

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Russian forces launched a missile strike on Kharkiv on Wednesday morning, killing two people (a man and a woman in their 60s) and injuring 42, including three teenagers aged 14, 16, and 17. A missile struck a five-story apartment building in the Nemyshlianskyi district. Preliminary findings suggest the use of a Tornado-S multiple launch rocket system. A separate drone strike hit a gas station in the Kyivskyi district, causing a fire with no casualties. The attack occurred amid a broader overnight aerial assault across Ukraine involving missiles and 169 drones.

tr43

Erdogan urges revival of Türkiye's EU membership process in meeting with EU leaders at NATO summit

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long called for revitalizing Türkiye's EU accession process and emphasized its role in European security and trade. On July 8, 2026, during a meeting with European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Erdogan urged the activation of EU membership mechanisms and launch of necessary meetings, and called for inclusion in planned EU trade and investment regulations, highlighting Türkiye's role as a major production hub in Europe through its Customs Union membership. He also emphasized Türkiye's contributions to European security and discussed diplomatic efforts regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the US-Iran war, and Israeli attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long called for revitalizing Türkiye's EU accession process and emphasized its role in European security and trade. On July 8, 2026, during a meeting with European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Erdogan urged the activation of EU membership mechanisms and launch of necessary meetings, and called for inclusion in planned EU trade and investment regulations, highlighting Türkiye's role as a major production hub in Europe through its Customs Union membership. He also emphasized Türkiye's contributions to European security and discussed diplomatic efforts regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the US-Iran war, and Israeli attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.