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Trump's 250th Birthday Speech: Iran War, Polls, Economy
Donald Trump marked America's 250th Independence Day by claiming Iran's military had been destroyed and warning of a "communist" threat, but the week's numbers cut against the pageantry: a Financial Times poll found 58 percent of voters say the $67 billion Iran war wasn't worth it, June payrolls rose just 57,000, and Republicans Mike DeWine and Mike Lawler broke with the White House over deporting 350,000 Haitian TPS holders.
Weekly briefBritain's £300B Defence Plan Not Enough for Washington
Outgoing premier Keir Starmer took a record £298 billion defence plan — £63 billion of it for new nuclear submarines and warheads — to his final NATO summit, only for Washington's ambassador to brand Britain a laggard. The rebuke came as the IISS confirmed Russian drones had spied on US airbases in England and a Tu-142 shadowed carrier HMS Prince of Wales in the Arctic, while at home a maternity scandal forced new witness rules and Farage faced a fresh funding probe.
Weekly briefFrance 2027: Le Pen Ruling Looms as Philippe Launches Bid
France spent the week auditioning its 2027 presidential field hours before a Paris court's July 7 ruling on whether Marine Le Pen, running near-even with Jordan Bardella at roughly 35 percent in the polls, will even be allowed to stand. Edouard Philippe launched his centrist bid before more than 5,000 supporters in Paris; Fabien Roussel won re-election as Communist leader; and wildfires that burned past 10,000 hectares forced thousands to evacuate, reopening a government climate-response fight. Thales, meanwhile, agreed to buy Exail for 3.9 billion euros.
Weekly briefGermany Unveils Reform Plan as AfD Surges in Polls
Chancellor Friedrich Merz's coalition struck a 34-point reform deal -- about €10 billion in tax relief and a doctor's-note requirement from day one of sick leave -- aimed at blunting the AfD, which now polls 41 percent in Saxony-Anhalt; days later the party re-elected Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla at its Erfurt congress as Defense Minister Boris Pistorius vowed to withhold state secrets from any AfD-led government. Berlin also summoned China's ambassador over reports it trained Russian troops and launched a sovereign combat-cloud project independent of France.
Weekly briefUkraine Drones Win War Air Defences Cannot — $404K
Russia's heaviest strike on Kyiv in weeks -- 68 missiles and 351 drones, all 29 ballistic missiles getting through for want of Patriot interceptors -- killed at least 14 before Zelensky pressed NATO's Ankara summit for more. Ukraine's naval drones have destroyed roughly a third of Russia's Black Sea Fleet; June strikes hit a record 200,000 Russian targets. ISW called Putin's claimed capture of Kostiantynivka staged propaganda; Medvedev floated a "security zone" into Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv as a Zaluzhnyi challenge to Zelensky rattled Kyiv.
Weekly briefNATO Summit in Ankara as Erdoğan Tightens Domestic Grip
Turkey hosts NATO's Ankara summit this week -- Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan vows Ankara will help define “NATO 3.0” -- even as courts ejected opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu from his own corruption trial and prosecutors arrested a comedian for mocking Erdoğan. Trump meets Zelensky and Syria's Ahmed al-Sharaa on the sidelines, while Ankara simultaneously deepens a Saudi-Egypt-Pakistan-Qatar axis built to hedge against the very alliance it is co-authoring.
Weekly briefAll Events
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de48German coalition agrees on major reform package including tax relief, pension changes, and labor market flexibilization
Germany's coalition government of CDU/CSU and SPD has agreed on a comprehensive 34-point reform package aimed at reviving the stagnant economy. The deal includes €10 billion in annual income tax relief for small and middle incomes, a timeline for pension reform with a new investment-based element, labor market flexibilization (extending fixed-term contracts up to 48 months, easing dismissal rules for high earners, abolishing telephone sick notes), support for strategic industries, and bureaucratic simplification. The package was presented with a show of unity by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, SPD leaders Bärbel Bas and Lars Klingbeil, and CSU leader Markus Söder. Reactions are mixed: business groups and Deutsche Bank welcome the reforms, while unions (Verdi, IG Metall) and the Green Party criticize them as mistrustful of workers and insufficient.
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German coalition agrees on major reform package including tax relief, pension changes, and labor market flexibilization
Germany's coalition government of CDU/CSU and SPD has agreed on a comprehensive 34-point reform package aimed at reviving the stagnant economy. The deal includes €10 billion in annual income tax relief for small and middle incomes, a timeline for pension reform with a new investment-based element, labor market flexibilization (extending fixed-term contracts up to 48 months, easing dismissal rules for high earners, abolishing telephone sick notes), support for strategic industries, and bureaucratic simplification. The package was presented with a show of unity by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, SPD leaders Bärbel Bas and Lars Klingbeil, and CSU leader Markus Söder. Reactions are mixed: business groups and Deutsche Bank welcome the reforms, while unions (Verdi, IG Metall) and the Green Party criticize them as mistrustful of workers and insufficient.
Germany's coalition government of CDU/CSU and SPD has agreed on a comprehensive 34-point reform package aimed at reviving the stagnant economy. The deal includes €10 billion in annual income tax relief for small and middle incomes, a timeline for pension reform with a new investment-based element, labor market flexibilization (extending fixed-term contracts up to 48 months, easing dismissal rules for high earners, abolishing telephone sick notes), support for strategic industries, and bureaucratic simplification. The package was presented with a show of unity by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, SPD leaders Bärbel Bas and Lars Klingbeil, and CSU leader Markus Söder. Reactions are mixed: business groups and Deutsche Bank welcome the reforms, while unions (Verdi, IG Metall) and the Green Party criticize them as mistrustful of workers and insufficient.
ua45Ukraine's algorithmic warfare and naval drones reshape Black Sea conflict
Ukraine has successfully integrated AI, satellite communications, cloud infrastructure, and private tech firms into its military operations, creating a new model of algorithmic warfare. This is most evident in the Black Sea, where Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs) have destroyed or damaged roughly 30% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet assets. The campaign relies on resilient satellite connectivity, commercial ISR data, and rapid innovation cycles. Ukraine is now poised to share battlefield data with NATO allies to train AI systems, and the article highlights potential for US-Turkey-Ukraine trilateral cooperation on USV development.
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Ukraine's algorithmic warfare and naval drones reshape Black Sea conflict
Ukraine has successfully integrated AI, satellite communications, cloud infrastructure, and private tech firms into its military operations, creating a new model of algorithmic warfare. This is most evident in the Black Sea, where Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs) have destroyed or damaged roughly 30% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet assets. The campaign relies on resilient satellite connectivity, commercial ISR data, and rapid innovation cycles. Ukraine is now poised to share battlefield data with NATO allies to train AI systems, and the article highlights potential for US-Turkey-Ukraine trilateral cooperation on USV development.
Ukraine has successfully integrated AI, satellite communications, cloud infrastructure, and private tech firms into its military operations, creating a new model of algorithmic warfare. This is most evident in the Black Sea, where Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs) have destroyed or damaged roughly 30% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet assets. The campaign relies on resilient satellite connectivity, commercial ISR data, and rapid innovation cycles. Ukraine is now poised to share battlefield data with NATO allies to train AI systems, and the article highlights potential for US-Turkey-Ukraine trilateral cooperation on USV development.
us44US lifts export controls on Anthropic's Fable 5 AI model, restoring public access
Background: The Trump administration previously imposed export controls on Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models, then authorized Mythos 5 restoration for critical infrastructure organizations. Today: The administration lifted export controls on Fable 5 on Tuesday evening, with public access restored Wednesday. Anthropic implemented a new safeguard blocking 99% of the targeted jailbreak. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated his office worked closely with Anthropic to analyze and approve Fable 5. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles praised unprecedented government-private sector collaboration. Commerce's Center for AI Standards and Innovation tested the model's safeguards. The administration faces an August deadline to create standardized AI security benchmarks under a recent executive order. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 remains restricted to approved customers pending government consultation.
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US lifts export controls on Anthropic's Fable 5 AI model, restoring public access
Background: The Trump administration previously imposed export controls on Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models, then authorized Mythos 5 restoration for critical infrastructure organizations. Today: The administration lifted export controls on Fable 5 on Tuesday evening, with public access restored Wednesday. Anthropic implemented a new safeguard blocking 99% of the targeted jailbreak. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated his office worked closely with Anthropic to analyze and approve Fable 5. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles praised unprecedented government-private sector collaboration. Commerce's Center for AI Standards and Innovation tested the model's safeguards. The administration faces an August deadline to create standardized AI security benchmarks under a recent executive order. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 remains restricted to approved customers pending government consultation.
Background: The Trump administration previously imposed export controls on Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models, then authorized Mythos 5 restoration for critical infrastructure organizations. Today: The administration lifted export controls on Fable 5 on Tuesday evening, with public access restored Wednesday. Anthropic implemented a new safeguard blocking 99% of the targeted jailbreak. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated his office worked closely with Anthropic to analyze and approve Fable 5. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles praised unprecedented government-private sector collaboration. Commerce's Center for AI Standards and Innovation tested the model's safeguards. The administration faces an August deadline to create standardized AI security benchmarks under a recent executive order. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 remains restricted to approved customers pending government consultation.
ua43Monaco explosion targeting Ukrainian businessman treated as attempted murder; SBU involvement suspected
Background: Ukrainian-born businessman Vadym Yermolaiev, who renounced his Ukrainian citizenship in 2017 and was sanctioned by Kyiv in 2023 for business activities in occupied Crimea, was critically injured in a deliberate explosion at a Monaco residential building on June 29. A woman and a 13-year-old were also injured. The suspect placed a backpack containing an explosive device in the lobby and fled. On July 1, Monaco Prosecutor General Stephane Thibault confirmed the incident is being treated as attempted murder, with investigators pursuing a lead suggesting possible involvement of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU). The search for the suspect continues. Yermolaiev has prior scandals involving his family, including the 'Monaco Battalion' exposé and his son's extradition to Estonia in 2025 for involvement in the Milton Group fraud network.
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Monaco explosion targeting Ukrainian businessman treated as attempted murder; SBU involvement suspected
Background: Ukrainian-born businessman Vadym Yermolaiev, who renounced his Ukrainian citizenship in 2017 and was sanctioned by Kyiv in 2023 for business activities in occupied Crimea, was critically injured in a deliberate explosion at a Monaco residential building on June 29. A woman and a 13-year-old were also injured. The suspect placed a backpack containing an explosive device in the lobby and fled. On July 1, Monaco Prosecutor General Stephane Thibault confirmed the incident is being treated as attempted murder, with investigators pursuing a lead suggesting possible involvement of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU). The search for the suspect continues. Yermolaiev has prior scandals involving his family, including the 'Monaco Battalion' exposé and his son's extradition to Estonia in 2025 for involvement in the Milton Group fraud network.
Background: Ukrainian-born businessman Vadym Yermolaiev, who renounced his Ukrainian citizenship in 2017 and was sanctioned by Kyiv in 2023 for business activities in occupied Crimea, was critically injured in a deliberate explosion at a Monaco residential building on June 29. A woman and a 13-year-old were also injured. The suspect placed a backpack containing an explosive device in the lobby and fled. On July 1, Monaco Prosecutor General Stephane Thibault confirmed the incident is being treated as attempted murder, with investigators pursuing a lead suggesting possible involvement of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU). The search for the suspect continues. Yermolaiev has prior scandals involving his family, including the 'Monaco Battalion' exposé and his son's extradition to Estonia in 2025 for involvement in the Milton Group fraud network.
tr43Israeli Mafia Boss Used Turkey as Safe Haven Despite INTERPOL Notice
US court documents reveal that Israeli organized crime figure Eran Hiya, wanted for attempted murder and conspiracy, used Turkey as his base, acquiring Turkish citizenship and residing in a guarded compound. Despite an INTERPOL Red Notice, Turkish authorities did not arrest him. The case highlights Turkey's role as a safe haven for transnational criminals, facilitated by citizenship-for-investment schemes and alleged protection networks. Hiya traveled internationally using a Turkish passport. He was arrested in Malaysia in April 2024 and extradited to the US on passport fraud charges, while Israel seeks his extradition for attempted murder.
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Israeli Mafia Boss Used Turkey as Safe Haven Despite INTERPOL Notice
US court documents reveal that Israeli organized crime figure Eran Hiya, wanted for attempted murder and conspiracy, used Turkey as his base, acquiring Turkish citizenship and residing in a guarded compound. Despite an INTERPOL Red Notice, Turkish authorities did not arrest him. The case highlights Turkey's role as a safe haven for transnational criminals, facilitated by citizenship-for-investment schemes and alleged protection networks. Hiya traveled internationally using a Turkish passport. He was arrested in Malaysia in April 2024 and extradited to the US on passport fraud charges, while Israel seeks his extradition for attempted murder.
US court documents reveal that Israeli organized crime figure Eran Hiya, wanted for attempted murder and conspiracy, used Turkey as his base, acquiring Turkish citizenship and residing in a guarded compound. Despite an INTERPOL Red Notice, Turkish authorities did not arrest him. The case highlights Turkey's role as a safe haven for transnational criminals, facilitated by citizenship-for-investment schemes and alleged protection networks. Hiya traveled internationally using a Turkish passport. He was arrested in Malaysia in April 2024 and extradited to the US on passport fraud charges, while Israel seeks his extradition for attempted murder.
us41Trump administration pivots to blocking pregnant foreign women from entering US after birthright citizenship ruling
After the Supreme Court struck down President Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship, the administration and its allies are shifting strategy to bar pregnant foreign women from entering the United States to prevent 'birth tourism.' The Justice Department has issued a memo urging prosecutors to investigate such schemes under visa fraud, wire fraud, and other charges. Critics warn of dangerous privacy implications as officials consider how to identify pregnant travelers. The move opens a new immigration battle over pregnancy, travel, and citizenship.
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Trump administration pivots to blocking pregnant foreign women from entering US after birthright citizenship ruling
After the Supreme Court struck down President Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship, the administration and its allies are shifting strategy to bar pregnant foreign women from entering the United States to prevent 'birth tourism.' The Justice Department has issued a memo urging prosecutors to investigate such schemes under visa fraud, wire fraud, and other charges. Critics warn of dangerous privacy implications as officials consider how to identify pregnant travelers. The move opens a new immigration battle over pregnancy, travel, and citizenship.
After the Supreme Court struck down President Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship, the administration and its allies are shifting strategy to bar pregnant foreign women from entering the United States to prevent 'birth tourism.' The Justice Department has issued a memo urging prosecutors to investigate such schemes under visa fraud, wire fraud, and other charges. Critics warn of dangerous privacy implications as officials consider how to identify pregnant travelers. The move opens a new immigration battle over pregnancy, travel, and citizenship.
ua40Ukraine converts Sea Baby naval drone into FPV attack drone launch platform
Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) has modified its Sea Baby naval drone to carry and launch 6-8 FPV attack drones, extending strike range beyond the coast. The system, with a 930-mile range and 4,400-pound payload, has been used to strike Russian ports. The Magura variant was used by U.S. special forces in a Philippine exercise. Ukraine's naval drones have sunk or damaged roughly a dozen Russian warships since 2022, forcing the Black Sea Fleet to retreat. The Pentagon is studying the technology for potential use in the Indo-Pacific.
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Ukraine converts Sea Baby naval drone into FPV attack drone launch platform
Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) has modified its Sea Baby naval drone to carry and launch 6-8 FPV attack drones, extending strike range beyond the coast. The system, with a 930-mile range and 4,400-pound payload, has been used to strike Russian ports. The Magura variant was used by U.S. special forces in a Philippine exercise. Ukraine's naval drones have sunk or damaged roughly a dozen Russian warships since 2022, forcing the Black Sea Fleet to retreat. The Pentagon is studying the technology for potential use in the Indo-Pacific.
Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) has modified its Sea Baby naval drone to carry and launch 6-8 FPV attack drones, extending strike range beyond the coast. The system, with a 930-mile range and 4,400-pound payload, has been used to strike Russian ports. The Magura variant was used by U.S. special forces in a Philippine exercise. Ukraine's naval drones have sunk or damaged roughly a dozen Russian warships since 2022, forcing the Black Sea Fleet to retreat. The Pentagon is studying the technology for potential use in the Indo-Pacific.
gb36Analysts urge Europe and Gulf states to unite as middle powers to counter great-power instability
Amid US ambivalence on global norms and the Iran war, analysts argue that Europe and Gulf states must leverage their geographic and economic strengths to secure shared interests. Key areas include protecting maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, building a joint defense industry using Ukrainian battlefield data and Gulf AI infrastructure, and deepening multilateral cooperation. The article highlights recent defense deals between Ukraine and Gulf states, and the UK-GCC free trade agreement, as steps toward a new strategic axis.
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Analysts urge Europe and Gulf states to unite as middle powers to counter great-power instability
Amid US ambivalence on global norms and the Iran war, analysts argue that Europe and Gulf states must leverage their geographic and economic strengths to secure shared interests. Key areas include protecting maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, building a joint defense industry using Ukrainian battlefield data and Gulf AI infrastructure, and deepening multilateral cooperation. The article highlights recent defense deals between Ukraine and Gulf states, and the UK-GCC free trade agreement, as steps toward a new strategic axis.
Amid US ambivalence on global norms and the Iran war, analysts argue that Europe and Gulf states must leverage their geographic and economic strengths to secure shared interests. Key areas include protecting maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, building a joint defense industry using Ukrainian battlefield data and Gulf AI infrastructure, and deepening multilateral cooperation. The article highlights recent defense deals between Ukraine and Gulf states, and the UK-GCC free trade agreement, as steps toward a new strategic axis.
us35Top central bankers align on moving away from forward guidance
Heads of the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and U.S. Federal Reserve, meeting at the ECB's annual conference in Sintra, expressed striking alignment in their criticism of forward guidance as a policy tool. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a longtime critic, joined ECB President Christine Lagarde and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey in advocating for a return to first principles in monetary policy communication. Lagarde distinguished between rejecting forward guidance and embracing 'framework guidance.' Warsh noted that five Fed task forces will be announced next week, with findings due by year-end, and former BOE governor Mervyn King will lead a task force on communication. The shift marks a potential global turning point in central banking strategy, with implications for financial markets and economic forecasting.
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Top central bankers align on moving away from forward guidance
Heads of the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and U.S. Federal Reserve, meeting at the ECB's annual conference in Sintra, expressed striking alignment in their criticism of forward guidance as a policy tool. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a longtime critic, joined ECB President Christine Lagarde and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey in advocating for a return to first principles in monetary policy communication. Lagarde distinguished between rejecting forward guidance and embracing 'framework guidance.' Warsh noted that five Fed task forces will be announced next week, with findings due by year-end, and former BOE governor Mervyn King will lead a task force on communication. The shift marks a potential global turning point in central banking strategy, with implications for financial markets and economic forecasting.
Heads of the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and U.S. Federal Reserve, meeting at the ECB's annual conference in Sintra, expressed striking alignment in their criticism of forward guidance as a policy tool. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a longtime critic, joined ECB President Christine Lagarde and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey in advocating for a return to first principles in monetary policy communication. Lagarde distinguished between rejecting forward guidance and embracing 'framework guidance.' Warsh noted that five Fed task forces will be announced next week, with findings due by year-end, and former BOE governor Mervyn King will lead a task force on communication. The shift marks a potential global turning point in central banking strategy, with implications for financial markets and economic forecasting.
de35Germany permanently protects Hambach forest from coal mining after 50-year fight
After a 50-year struggle, the German government has permanently protected the remaining 14% of the Hambach forest from open-pit lignite mining by RWE, designating it a nature conservation area. The 12,000-year-old forest, located between Aachen and Cologne, had been the site of a long conflict between environmentalists and the energy company. The decision follows years of protests, a 2018 court order halting clearing, and a 2019 recommendation by Germany's Coal Commission to protect the forest and phase out coal by 2038. The Hambach mine is scheduled to stop extracting coal by 2029. The remaining forest will become a publicly-managed wilderness development area from 2035, with two ecological corridors connecting it to neighboring woodland and a cycle and pedestrian path for public access. This marks a significant victory for climate and environmental activists in Germany.
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Germany permanently protects Hambach forest from coal mining after 50-year fight
After a 50-year struggle, the German government has permanently protected the remaining 14% of the Hambach forest from open-pit lignite mining by RWE, designating it a nature conservation area. The 12,000-year-old forest, located between Aachen and Cologne, had been the site of a long conflict between environmentalists and the energy company. The decision follows years of protests, a 2018 court order halting clearing, and a 2019 recommendation by Germany's Coal Commission to protect the forest and phase out coal by 2038. The Hambach mine is scheduled to stop extracting coal by 2029. The remaining forest will become a publicly-managed wilderness development area from 2035, with two ecological corridors connecting it to neighboring woodland and a cycle and pedestrian path for public access. This marks a significant victory for climate and environmental activists in Germany.
After a 50-year struggle, the German government has permanently protected the remaining 14% of the Hambach forest from open-pit lignite mining by RWE, designating it a nature conservation area. The 12,000-year-old forest, located between Aachen and Cologne, had been the site of a long conflict between environmentalists and the energy company. The decision follows years of protests, a 2018 court order halting clearing, and a 2019 recommendation by Germany's Coal Commission to protect the forest and phase out coal by 2038. The Hambach mine is scheduled to stop extracting coal by 2029. The remaining forest will become a publicly-managed wilderness development area from 2035, with two ecological corridors connecting it to neighboring woodland and a cycle and pedestrian path for public access. This marks a significant victory for climate and environmental activists in Germany.