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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

Weekly brief
gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

Weekly brief
fr · France

France Arming Europe as Politics Shift Against EU

France spent the week as Europe’s indispensable power — hosting the G7 at Évian, extending its nuclear umbrella to eight allies, presiding over Eurosatory, the West’s biggest arms fair. Yet a new poll put the far right’s Jordan Bardella on 35 percent for 2027, fifteen points clear, on a platform of calling the EU “obsolete” and halving France’s payments to it — and a July 7 court ruling may leave his party with no eligible candidate at all.

Weekly brief
de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

Weekly brief
ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Offers to Freeze War by Escalating Strikes

Ukraine spent the week doing two things that only look contradictory: offering to freeze the war and fighting it harder than ever. Zelenskyy signalled he would accept halting the conflict along the current front line, and Europe lined up behind him. At the same time his long-range drones set Russia's fuel system alight, spreading petrol shortages to 25 regions. The escalation is not at odds with the peace offer — it is what gives the offer its weight. Whether Moscow ever picks it up depends less on the talks than on how dry Russia's pumps run.

Weekly brief
tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

Weekly brief
Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us49

US-Iran war ends with negotiated settlement, reshaping Middle East alignments

Background: Middle Eastern rivals including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt collectively pushed the Trump administration toward a tentative peace deal with Iran, with talks mediated by Pakistan and supported by Gulf allies. The US-Iran war launched in late February ended with a negotiated settlement announced by President Trump on June 14, reopening the Strait of Hormuz but leaving Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and regional proxy network largely intact. The conflict accelerated a geopolitical realignment in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia leading an 'Islamic coalition' (including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt) to counter both Iran and perceived Israeli unilateralism, while the UAE anchors a pro-Israel 'Abrahamic coalition' with deepened US ties. China emerged as a key beneficiary, positioning itself as a mediator and economic partner to both blocs. The war eroded global confidence in US reliability, pushing regional states toward greater strategic autonomy and diversification of partnerships.

Show summary

Background: Middle Eastern rivals including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt collectively pushed the Trump administration toward a tentative peace deal with Iran, with talks mediated by Pakistan and supported by Gulf allies. The US-Iran war launched in late February ended with a negotiated settlement announced by President Trump on June 14, reopening the Strait of Hormuz but leaving Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and regional proxy network largely intact. The conflict accelerated a geopolitical realignment in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia leading an 'Islamic coalition' (including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt) to counter both Iran and perceived Israeli unilateralism, while the UAE anchors a pro-Israel 'Abrahamic coalition' with deepened US ties. China emerged as a key beneficiary, positioning itself as a mediator and economic partner to both blocs. The war eroded global confidence in US reliability, pushing regional states toward greater strategic autonomy and diversification of partnerships.

fr48

Macron expands nuclear arsenal, ends transparency, and launches European 'advanced deterrence' framework

Background: In March 2026, Macron announced a 'forward deterrence' doctrine to disperse nuclear-capable Rafale fighters across allied European bases. New development: Macron has now deepened this shift by increasing the warhead stockpile, ending transparency on arsenal size, and launching an 'advanced deterrence' framework that includes strategic dialogues and potential forward basing of French nuclear-capable aircraft. Eight NATO allies (Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, UK) have signed on. A Franco-German nuclear steering group has been formed, with German forces participating in French nuclear exercises for the first time. The initiative faces political opposition from the far-right National Rally ahead of the 2027 election and questions about the credibility of France's smaller counter-value arsenal compared to US extended deterrence. Additionally, the Future Combat Air System program has collapsed, and Germany remains committed to the US nuclear umbrella via F-35 procurement.

Show summary

Background: In March 2026, Macron announced a 'forward deterrence' doctrine to disperse nuclear-capable Rafale fighters across allied European bases. New development: Macron has now deepened this shift by increasing the warhead stockpile, ending transparency on arsenal size, and launching an 'advanced deterrence' framework that includes strategic dialogues and potential forward basing of French nuclear-capable aircraft. Eight NATO allies (Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, UK) have signed on. A Franco-German nuclear steering group has been formed, with German forces participating in French nuclear exercises for the first time. The initiative faces political opposition from the far-right National Rally ahead of the 2027 election and questions about the credibility of France's smaller counter-value arsenal compared to US extended deterrence. Additionally, the Future Combat Air System program has collapsed, and Germany remains committed to the US nuclear umbrella via F-35 procurement.

us48

Trump says he would rather not have USMCA trade deal, raising collapse risk

The USMCA trade agreement faces severe strain as U.S. and Canadian officials exchange barbs ahead of a mandatory joint review by July 1 that will decide whether to extend the deal for 16 years. President Trump stated in Paris that he would rather not have the USMCA and would prefer to terminate it, though he added he may sign it. He argued the US does better without an agreement and noted he originally wanted the USMCA because there was no way out of NAFTA. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, at the G7 summit, called for a 'Fortress North America,' hinting at the deal's importance. The USMCA has shielded much US trade from tariffs, but Trump's comments signal increased risk of the deal collapsing, which could disrupt deeply integrated North American supply chains in autos, energy, and manufacturing. Disputes include U.S. concerns about China using Mexico or Canada as a back door into the North American market, and Canadian provinces banning U.S. wine and liquor in retaliation for U.S. tariffs. Trade experts estimate only a 10% chance of renewal, with risks of annual reviews or full withdrawal.

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The USMCA trade agreement faces severe strain as U.S. and Canadian officials exchange barbs ahead of a mandatory joint review by July 1 that will decide whether to extend the deal for 16 years. President Trump stated in Paris that he would rather not have the USMCA and would prefer to terminate it, though he added he may sign it. He argued the US does better without an agreement and noted he originally wanted the USMCA because there was no way out of NAFTA. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, at the G7 summit, called for a 'Fortress North America,' hinting at the deal's importance. The USMCA has shielded much US trade from tariffs, but Trump's comments signal increased risk of the deal collapsing, which could disrupt deeply integrated North American supply chains in autos, energy, and manufacturing. Disputes include U.S. concerns about China using Mexico or Canada as a back door into the North American market, and Canadian provinces banning U.S. wine and liquor in retaliation for U.S. tariffs. Trade experts estimate only a 10% chance of renewal, with risks of annual reviews or full withdrawal.

ua48

Ukraine accuses Russia of staging Bryansk bus strike as false flag to drag Belarus into war

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) claims to have obtained a Russian internal document showing no Ukrainian drones were detected over the Pochep district in Bryansk at the time of a drone strike on a bus carrying Belarusian civilians, alleging the attack was a special operation by Russian special services. The strike killed one woman and wounded seven, including five children. Belarus summoned Ukraine's charge d'affaires and issued a formal protest, while President Lukashenko blamed Ukraine. Kyiv warns Russia is trying to draw Belarus into the war.

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Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) claims to have obtained a Russian internal document showing no Ukrainian drones were detected over the Pochep district in Bryansk at the time of a drone strike on a bus carrying Belarusian civilians, alleging the attack was a special operation by Russian special services. The strike killed one woman and wounded seven, including five children. Belarus summoned Ukraine's charge d'affaires and issued a formal protest, while President Lukashenko blamed Ukraine. Kyiv warns Russia is trying to draw Belarus into the war.

de48

Germany records over 8,700 antisemitic incidents in 2025, driven by Israel-related hostility and online hate

The Federal Association of Departments for Research and Information on Antisemitism (RIAS) reported over 8,700 antisemitic incidents in Germany in 2025, with 68% classified as Israel-related. Incidents include 178 physical attacks, four cases of extreme violence (including a knife attack at the Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Berlin), and a surge in online hate speech (2,314 cases). The report highlights that antisemitism remains at high levels since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, with normalization across political spectrums. RIAS methodology has faced criticism from the Diaspora Alliance for overemphasizing Israel-related antisemitism and underestimating far-right extremism.

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The Federal Association of Departments for Research and Information on Antisemitism (RIAS) reported over 8,700 antisemitic incidents in Germany in 2025, with 68% classified as Israel-related. Incidents include 178 physical attacks, four cases of extreme violence (including a knife attack at the Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Berlin), and a surge in online hate speech (2,314 cases). The report highlights that antisemitism remains at high levels since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, with normalization across political spectrums. RIAS methodology has faced criticism from the Diaspora Alliance for overemphasizing Israel-related antisemitism and underestimating far-right extremism.

us46

European NATO allies race to compensate for US military disengagement as defense ministers meet in Brussels

Background: The US has announced accelerated troop withdrawals and deep-strike capability reductions from Europe, with European allies expected to present plans to fill gaps by July. Today: European NATO defense ministers are meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Thursday to address the vulnerability window created by the US disengagement, with intelligence services fearing a potential Russian attack by 2030. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to attend. The US has announced a significant reduction in means provided to the alliance, beyond previously known cuts, creating confusion about the permanence of the US presence in Europe.

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Background: The US has announced accelerated troop withdrawals and deep-strike capability reductions from Europe, with European allies expected to present plans to fill gaps by July. Today: European NATO defense ministers are meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Thursday to address the vulnerability window created by the US disengagement, with intelligence services fearing a potential Russian attack by 2030. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to attend. The US has announced a significant reduction in means provided to the alliance, beyond previously known cuts, creating confusion about the permanence of the US presence in Europe.

tr46

Turkey to lead NATO-backed Black Sea maritime security initiative for Ukraine

Turkey is establishing a Maritime Component Command in Istanbul's Beykoz district as part of the 'Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine,' a 33-country multinational framework preparing postwar security arrangements. Defense Minister Yaşar Güler's letter reveals Turkey will lead maritime security operations in the Black Sea while respecting the Montreux Convention. This marks a significant shift from Ankara's longstanding policy of limiting foreign military involvement in the Black Sea. The initiative includes a core Turkish staff established in August 2025, with 14 countries contributing to the command structure. Critics question whether the project, despite being under Turkish command, effectively integrates with NATO planning and could strain relations with Russia.

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Turkey is establishing a Maritime Component Command in Istanbul's Beykoz district as part of the 'Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine,' a 33-country multinational framework preparing postwar security arrangements. Defense Minister Yaşar Güler's letter reveals Turkey will lead maritime security operations in the Black Sea while respecting the Montreux Convention. This marks a significant shift from Ankara's longstanding policy of limiting foreign military involvement in the Black Sea. The initiative includes a core Turkish staff established in August 2025, with 14 countries contributing to the command structure. Critics question whether the project, despite being under Turkish command, effectively integrates with NATO planning and could strain relations with Russia.

us45

Trump declares 'I am the boss' at G7; US reviews Europe troop presence; EU parliament approves tariff deal

A liveblog covers multiple developments under the Trump administration: Trump's remark at the G7 summit, a Supreme Court ruling on gun rights for marijuana users, Trump's hold on an intelligence nominee, Hegseth's announcement of a review of US troop presence in Europe, a foiled assassination plot on Trump's birthday, a fatal B-52 crash in California, and the EU parliament's approval of a tariff deal with the US.

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A liveblog covers multiple developments under the Trump administration: Trump's remark at the G7 summit, a Supreme Court ruling on gun rights for marijuana users, Trump's hold on an intelligence nominee, Hegseth's announcement of a review of US troop presence in Europe, a foiled assassination plot on Trump's birthday, a fatal B-52 crash in California, and the EU parliament's approval of a tariff deal with the US.

fr44

G7 leaders and tech CEOs discuss common AI regulation standards amid US-China competition

At the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, Western leaders and top AI executives including Sam Altman (OpenAI), Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind), Arthur Mensch (Mistral AI), and Dario Amodei (Anthropic) held a working lunch on AI governance. The discussions focused on establishing common AI regulation standards to counter China's technological advances, with French President Emmanuel Macron announcing plans for a G7 platform to define shared norms. The meeting avoided direct confrontation over the US suspension of Anthropic's advanced models for non-US users, instead emphasizing cooperation among democracies. EU leaders called for closer US-EU collaboration on AI safety and standards.

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At the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, Western leaders and top AI executives including Sam Altman (OpenAI), Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind), Arthur Mensch (Mistral AI), and Dario Amodei (Anthropic) held a working lunch on AI governance. The discussions focused on establishing common AI regulation standards to counter China's technological advances, with French President Emmanuel Macron announcing plans for a G7 platform to define shared norms. The meeting avoided direct confrontation over the US suspension of Anthropic's advanced models for non-US users, instead emphasizing cooperation among democracies. EU leaders called for closer US-EU collaboration on AI safety and standards.

us44

MAGA hawks rebel against Trump's Iran deal, deepening internal divide

Pro-Israel conservative allies of President Trump are rebelling against his interim nuclear deal with Iran, citing concerns over secrecy, sanctions relief, and trust in Tehran. The deal, negotiated by Vice President Vance, has opened a second front in MAGA's civil war, with hawks accusing Trump of abandoning leverage gained from military strikes. The White House defends the MOU as performance-based and in U.S. interests.

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Pro-Israel conservative allies of President Trump are rebelling against his interim nuclear deal with Iran, citing concerns over secrecy, sanctions relief, and trust in Tehran. The deal, negotiated by Vice President Vance, has opened a second front in MAGA's civil war, with hawks accusing Trump of abandoning leverage gained from military strikes. The White House defends the MOU as performance-based and in U.S. interests.