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4 May Briefing Read full brief

Russia's Iran-war oil windfall already comes up short as civilian strikes hit Kharkiv and Sumy

A Russian Iskander killed five civilians and injured 19 in Merefa, Kharkiv Oblast, with separate guided-bomb and airstrike attacks on Komyshuvakha and Shostka. Ukrainian air defences downed 135 of 155 overnight drones, and the IAEA said a drone struck Zaporizhzhia NPP's External Radiation Control Laboratory on 3 May. Russian oil revenue jumped to $19 billion in March but the Finance Ministry still missed baseline by 234.3 billion rubles. President Vladimir Putin appointed Bucha-sanctioned Colonel General Alexander Chaiko to lead Russia's Aerospace Forces.

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Drone hits external radiation lab at Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant; IAEA seeks access

A drone struck the External Radiation Control Laboratory at the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on 3 May, the International Atomic Energy Agency said. The lab sits outside the plant's perimeter; the IAEA reported no injuries and has requested access to assess possible damage. The strike follows a 27 April drone attack near the plant that killed a vehicle driver and triggered the facility's 15th loss of external power since the full-scale war began.

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Russian Iskander missile strike on Merefa kills five, injures 19

A Russian Iskander ballistic missile struck the town of Merefa in Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 4, killing five civilians and injuring 19, according to the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office. Four people died at the scene, and a severely injured woman later died in hospital. The attack damaged residential buildings, shops, a restaurant, a car repair shop, and cars.

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Ukrainian forces advance northwest of Orikhiv, strike Russian FSB boats guarding Kerch Bridge

Ukrainian forces recently advanced northwest of Orikhiv and struck Russian FSB boats guarding the Kerch Bridge, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russia launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 268 long-range drones against Ukraine overnight. ISW also reported that rising oil revenues are unlikely to resolve Russia's growing economic problems, as senior Russian bankers continue to express concerns.

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Russia's oil revenue surged to $19 billion in March on Iran war windfall, IEA reports

Russia's oil revenue climbed to $19 billion in March from $9.75 billion in February, driven by the Iran war pushing crude above $100 a barrel, the International Energy Agency reported. Despite the windfall, Russia's Finance Ministry recorded a 234.3 billion ruble ($3.12 billion) shortfall against its baseline oil-and-gas revenue projection for March, with every month of 2026 falling below baseline. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged on May 3 that income and expenditure had stayed flat despite the windfall, and Sberbank's CFO forecast the ruble would weaken to 80-90 per dollar by year-end.

Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked in Ukraine, with a one-line preview.

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Ukraine downs 135 of 155 Russian drones in overnight attack on May 3-4

On the night of May 3-4, 2026, Russia launched 155 attack drones (Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas, and Parody decoys) from Kursk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Millerovo, and occupied Donetsk and Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses, including aviation, anti-aircraft missile units, electronic warfare, and mobile fire groups, shot down or neutralized 135 drones across northern, southern, and eastern Ukraine. Fourteen drones hit 10 locations, and debris fell at 4 locations. The attack is ongoing with several drones still in Ukrainian airspace.

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On the night of May 3-4, 2026, Russia launched 155 attack drones (Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas, and Parody decoys) from Kursk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Millerovo, and occupied Donetsk and Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses, including aviation, anti-aircraft missile units, electronic warfare, and mobile fire groups, shot down or neutralized 135 drones across northern, southern, and eastern Ukraine. Fourteen drones hit 10 locations, and debris fell at 4 locations. The attack is ongoing with several drones still in Ukrainian airspace.

ua40

Ukrainian forces advance near Orikhiv; Russia intensifies attacks on Kupiansk

Ukrainian forces have advanced northwest of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region, with geolocated footage showing troops moving south of Lukyanivske. Russian military bloggers acknowledge that Russian forces likely no longer hold positions in several settlements northwest of Orikhiv, contradicting official Russian claims. Meanwhile, Russia has intensified attacks on Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, exploiting favorable weather conditions. Ukraine also struck Russian military and energy infrastructure, including an oil tanker near Primorsk in Leningrad Oblast, two shadow fleet vessels in Krasnodar Krai, and a Transneft facility in Perm Krai, causing a large fire. The Institute for the Study of War suggests these strikes indicate weaknesses in Russian air defense, with some systems reportedly redeployed to Moscow for Victory Day parade protection.

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Ukrainian forces have advanced northwest of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region, with geolocated footage showing troops moving south of Lukyanivske. Russian military bloggers acknowledge that Russian forces likely no longer hold positions in several settlements northwest of Orikhiv, contradicting official Russian claims. Meanwhile, Russia has intensified attacks on Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, exploiting favorable weather conditions. Ukraine also struck Russian military and energy infrastructure, including an oil tanker near Primorsk in Leningrad Oblast, two shadow fleet vessels in Krasnodar Krai, and a Transneft facility in Perm Krai, causing a large fire. The Institute for the Study of War suggests these strikes indicate weaknesses in Russian air defense, with some systems reportedly redeployed to Moscow for Victory Day parade protection.

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Putin appoints Alexander Chaiko, sanctioned for Bucha war crimes, as head of Russian Aerospace Forces

Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed Colonel General Alexander Chaiko as the new commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, replacing Viktor Afzalov. Chaiko, a former commander of Russia's Eastern Military District, is under EU sanctions for war crimes committed during the occupation of Bucha, Ukraine. The Security Service of Ukraine has charged him with planning and executing the invasion of northern Ukraine, including setting up a headquarters in a seized kindergarten. This appointment signals continued Kremlin support for military figures implicated in atrocities in Ukraine.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed Colonel General Alexander Chaiko as the new commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, replacing Viktor Afzalov. Chaiko, a former commander of Russia's Eastern Military District, is under EU sanctions for war crimes committed during the occupation of Bucha, Ukraine. The Security Service of Ukraine has charged him with planning and executing the invasion of northern Ukraine, including setting up a headquarters in a seized kindergarten. This appointment signals continued Kremlin support for military figures implicated in atrocities in Ukraine.

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Ukraine reports over 1,000 civilians and military held captive by Russia since 2022

The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War stated that more than 1,000 Ukrainians have been held captive by Russia since 2022, with poor conditions and abuse reported. The headquarters is prioritizing their release, having returned 832 people this year and 9,048 since the invasion began.

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The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War stated that more than 1,000 Ukrainians have been held captive by Russia since 2022, with poor conditions and abuse reported. The headquarters is prioritizing their release, having returned 832 people this year and 9,048 since the invasion began.

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Russian airstrike damages Shostka city council building and residential houses, injures three women

On the night of May 3-4, 2026, Russian forces conducted an airstrike on the Shostka territorial community in Sumy region, damaging the city council executive committee building, an extracurricular educational institution, six residential buildings, and passenger cars. Three women—a passerby and residents of neighboring buildings—were injured. Emergency rescue teams are assessing further damage. This attack is part of ongoing Russian shelling across Sumy region, with nearly 40 strikes on 35 settlements reported in the same period.

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On the night of May 3-4, 2026, Russian forces conducted an airstrike on the Shostka territorial community in Sumy region, damaging the city council executive committee building, an extracurricular educational institution, six residential buildings, and passenger cars. Three women—a passerby and residents of neighboring buildings—were injured. Emergency rescue teams are assessing further damage. This attack is part of ongoing Russian shelling across Sumy region, with nearly 40 strikes on 35 settlements reported in the same period.

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Russian guided bomb strike kills civilian in Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia

Russian forces used guided aerial bombs to strike the settlement of Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region on May 4, killing a 61-year-old man and damaging private homes. An air raid alert was reissued due to further guided bomb launches. The attack underscores ongoing Russian targeting of civilian areas in Ukraine.

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Russian forces used guided aerial bombs to strike the settlement of Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region on May 4, killing a 61-year-old man and damaging private homes. An air raid alert was reissued due to further guided bomb launches. The attack underscores ongoing Russian targeting of civilian areas in Ukraine.

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Russia launches 868 strikes on Zaporizhzhia region, injuring 11

Russian forces conducted 868 strikes on Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region over the past day, including 30 airstrikes, 630 drone attacks, 6 MLRS strikes, and 202 artillery strikes. The attacks damaged homes, equipment, and infrastructure, with 11 people injured. Governor Ivan Fedorov reported the strikes targeted numerous settlements across the region.

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Russian forces conducted 868 strikes on Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region over the past day, including 30 airstrikes, 630 drone attacks, 6 MLRS strikes, and 202 artillery strikes. The attacks damaged homes, equipment, and infrastructure, with 11 people injured. Governor Ivan Fedorov reported the strikes targeted numerous settlements across the region.

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Canada pledges additional $200 million to Ukraine arms procurement programme

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a new $200 million contribution to the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) during a Washington-format meeting on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Yerevan. The pledge aims to strengthen Ukraine's air defence and anti-ballistic capabilities, with discussions also covering the production of European systems and missiles. This marks a continued effort by allies to support Ukraine through the PURL mechanism, which enables procurement of US weapons for Kyiv.

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a new $200 million contribution to the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) during a Washington-format meeting on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Yerevan. The pledge aims to strengthen Ukraine's air defence and anti-ballistic capabilities, with discussions also covering the production of European systems and missiles. This marks a continued effort by allies to support Ukraine through the PURL mechanism, which enables procurement of US weapons for Kyiv.

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Ukraine reports 1,120 Russian casualties and 113 artillery systems destroyed in past day

Background: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been reporting daily Russian combat losses since February 24, 2022, with previous daily figures showing 1,080, 1,470, and 1,240 personnel casualties. Today's update: Russian forces lost 1,120 personnel, 6 tanks, 4 armored vehicles, 113 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 11 ground-based robotic systems, 2,249 UAVs, 5 cruise missiles, 268 vehicles, and 17 special equipment units in the past 24 hours, bringing total Russian personnel losses to approximately 1,335,150 since the invasion began. There were 122 combat engagements, with the heaviest fighting in the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka sectors.

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Background: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been reporting daily Russian combat losses since February 24, 2022, with previous daily figures showing 1,080, 1,470, and 1,240 personnel casualties. Today's update: Russian forces lost 1,120 personnel, 6 tanks, 4 armored vehicles, 113 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 11 ground-based robotic systems, 2,249 UAVs, 5 cruise missiles, 268 vehicles, and 17 special equipment units in the past 24 hours, bringing total Russian personnel losses to approximately 1,335,150 since the invasion began. There were 122 combat engagements, with the heaviest fighting in the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka sectors.

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Ukraine intercepts Russian Geran-4 jet-powered drone for first time

Ukrainian forces from the 1020th Anti-Aircraft Missile Artillery Regiment shot down a Russian Geran-4 jet-powered drone using a STING interceptor drone, marking the first confirmed destruction of this upgraded model. The Geran-4 features a turbojet engine enabling speeds of 350–500 km/h, a range of up to 850 km, and a 50 kg warhead, reflecting Russia's ongoing advancements in drone technology. The interception highlights the evolving drone warfare capabilities and Ukraine's ability to counter faster, more sophisticated aerial threats.

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Ukrainian forces from the 1020th Anti-Aircraft Missile Artillery Regiment shot down a Russian Geran-4 jet-powered drone using a STING interceptor drone, marking the first confirmed destruction of this upgraded model. The Geran-4 features a turbojet engine enabling speeds of 350–500 km/h, a range of up to 850 km, and a 50 kg warhead, reflecting Russia's ongoing advancements in drone technology. The interception highlights the evolving drone warfare capabilities and Ukraine's ability to counter faster, more sophisticated aerial threats.

Frequently Asked

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How many civilians were killed in the Kharkiv Oblast strike on 4 May?
Five civilians were killed and 19 injured when a Russian Iskander ballistic missile struck Merefa in Kharkiv Oblast on 4 May.
What was Russia's oil revenue in March 2025?
Russia's oil revenue jumped to $19 billion in March 2025, up from $9.75 billion in February, as crude breached $100 a barrel.
Did Russia meet its oil-and-gas revenue projection for March?
No, Russia's Finance Ministry recorded a 234.3 billion ruble ($3.12 billion) shortfall against its baseline oil-and-gas projection for March.
What damage did the drone strike at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant cause?
A drone struck the External Radiation Control Laboratory at the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on 3 May; no injuries were reported, and the IAEA requested access to assess damage.
Who did Putin appoint as commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces?
President Vladimir Putin appointed Colonel General Alexander Chaiko as commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, replacing Viktor Afzalov.