Russia's $19B Oil Windfall Falls Short as Strikes Hit Kharkiv, Sumy

A Russian Iskander ballistic missile struck Merefa in Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of 4 May, killing five civilians and injuring 19 according to the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office; four died at the scene and a severely injured woman later died in hospital. The strike damaged residential buildings, shops, a restaurant, a car repair shop, and parked cars. A Russian guided aerial bomb struck Komyshuvakha in Zaporizhzhia the same day, killing a 61-year-old man and damaging private homes; an air raid alert was reissued for further launches. Overnight on 3-4 May, a Russian airstrike on Shostka in Sumy Oblast damaged the city council executive committee building, an extracurricular educational institution, six residential buildings, and parked cars, injuring three women including a passerby. The Shostka attack was part of a broader pattern of nearly 40 strikes on 35 Sumy settlements in the same period.

Ukrainian air defences shot down or neutralised 135 of 155 Russian attack drones launched overnight from Kursk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Millerovo, and occupied Donetsk and Crimea. Fourteen drones hit ten locations and debris fell at four; several drones remained in Ukrainian airspace as the attack continued.

A drone struck the External Radiation Control Laboratory at the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on 3 May, the International Atomic Energy Agency said. The lab sits outside the plant's perimeter and the IAEA has requested access to assess any damage; no injuries were reported. The strike followed a 27 April drone attack near the plant that killed a vehicle driver and triggered ZNPP's 15th loss of external power supply since the start of the full-scale war, with a further loss recorded on 30 April.

Geolocated footage placed Ukrainian forces moving south of Lukyanivske, northwest of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia, with Russian military bloggers acknowledging that Russian troops likely no longer hold positions in several settlements there — contradicting official Russian claims. Russia intensified attacks on Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast under favourable weather. The Institute for the Study of War said Ukrainian long-range strikes hit an oil tanker near Primorsk in Leningrad Oblast, two shadow-fleet vessels in Krasnodar Krai, and a Transneft facility in Perm Krai that caught fire; ISW noted some Russian air defences had been redeployed to Moscow for Victory Day parade protection. ISW separately reported a Ukrainian strike on Russian FSB boats guarding the Kerch Bridge and counted one Iskander-M and 268 long-range drones launched by Russia overnight.

Russian oil revenue jumped to $19 billion in March from $9.75 billion in February as crude breached $100 a barrel, the International Energy Agency reported. But Russia's Finance Ministry still recorded a 234.3 billion ruble ($3.12 billion) shortfall against its baseline oil-and-gas projection for March, with every month of 2026 falling below baseline. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged on 3 May that income and expenditure had stayed flat despite the windfall; Sberbank's chief financial officer forecast the ruble would weaken to 80-90 per dollar by year-end.

President Vladimir Putin appointed Colonel General Alexander Chaiko as commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, replacing Viktor Afzalov. Chaiko, formerly commander of Russia's Eastern Military District, is under EU sanctions for war crimes committed during the occupation of Bucha; Ukraine's Security Service has charged him with planning and executing the invasion of northern Ukraine, including setting up a headquarters in a seized kindergarten.

The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War said more than 1,000 Ukrainian civilians and military personnel are still held captive by Russia since 2022, with poor conditions and abuse reported. The body has returned 832 people this year and 9,048 since the start of the full-scale invasion.