Israel acknowledges Gaza death toll exceeds 10,000: The war and politics behind shifting data
01/02/2026
On January 29, 2026, senior Israeli military officials conducted an informal briefing for domestic media. The content of this briefing was disclosed the following day, January 30, by mainstream outlets such as Ynet, the website of the newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth: an internal assessment by the Israeli military indicated that approximately 70,000 Palestinians had been killed in the Gaza Strip since the outbreak of the war in October 2023, excluding missing persons. This figure largely aligns with the death toll of over 71,000 reported by the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. For the Israeli authorities, who had consistently dismissed Palestinian data as Hamas propaganda over the past two years, this represents a quiet yet profoundly significant shift in stance. It not only concerns the authenticity of a number but also touches on the nature of this war, Israel's military narrative, and the weighty foundation for future political resolution.
From "Propaganda" to "Generally Accurate": The Evolution of Israel's Stance on Death Toll Statistics
Israel's shift in attitude towards the death toll in Gaza did not happen overnight; the process was filled with contradictions and tensions. For a long time, the statistical methods of the Gaza health authorities have enjoyed relatively high credibility in the international community, particularly among United Nations agencies. These authorities not only release total figures but also provide the names, birth dates, and Israeli-issued ID numbers for most of the deceased, creating a traceable record. In past conflicts, including the wars of 2008-2009, 2012, and 2014, the death tolls ultimately accepted by Israel and international observers largely aligned with the data provided by the Palestinian side.
However, since Hamas launched an attack on October 7, 2023, resulting in the deaths of approximately 1,200 Israelis, Israel has initiated an unprecedented military operation in Gaza. Faced with rapidly rising Palestinian casualty figures, the Israeli government and military have adopted a systematic strategy of questioning the data. The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs has publicly accused the Gaza Health Ministry's statistics of being misleading and unreliable, arguing that since the department is operated by Hamas, its data essentially serves as propaganda for a terrorist organization aimed at discrediting Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that about 50% of the deceased were combatants, attempting to portray the campaign as a precise operation that distinguishes as much as possible between military targets and civilians.
The content of this military briefing has completely shaken the foundation of this narrative. The Israeli military officials in the briefing admitted, "We are currently working to distinguish between terrorists and innocent individuals caught up in the conflict." This means that the Israeli military itself acknowledges that among the total of approximately 70,000 fatalities, a significant number are non-combatants. More notably, Israel's *Haaretz* newspaper reported, citing a confidential military database, which indicates that the civilian death proportion is as high as 83%. This figure is far higher than the 50% previously claimed by Netanyahu and also exceeds the implied civilian proportion (approximately 68%) suggested by the military's earlier announcement of about 22,000 terrorists killed. Although the Israeli military spokesperson later gave a vague response, stating that the published details do not represent official Israel Defense Forces data, the information has already been released through mainstream channels, and the intent behind this policy adjustment is quite clear.
Multiple Strategic Considerations Behind Data Recognition
The Israeli military chose to release this information through unofficial briefings at the end of January 2026, driven by a series of complex strategic and political calculations. In terms of direct motivation, this is closely related to the second phase of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement. According to reports, the Rafah crossing is scheduled to reopen for the first time in nearly two years on February 1, 2026—just days after the data disclosure—allowing some Palestinians to apply for return. This is a key step in the second phase of the U.S.-mediated ceasefire plan. At this juncture, Israel needs to demonstrate a degree of transparency and cooperation to the international community, especially to the main mediator, the United States, in exchange for more flexibility on subsequent, more challenging issues, such as Hamas’s disarmament and future governance arrangements in Gaza.
The deeper reason lies in the growing political and judicial pressures within Israel. Over time, with accumulating evidence, allegations by the UN Commission of Inquiry, international human rights organizations, and numerous scholars that Israel’s actions in Gaza may constitute genocide have created immense international public opinion and legal pressure. Persistently denying widely accepted data will only further damage Israel’s international credibility and moral standing. In its report, Haaretz sharply asked: What other allegations might turn out to be true? The Israeli public must ask themselves what this belated acknowledgment says about the credibility of the military and government regarding Israel’s conduct in Gaza. Acknowledging a higher death toll may be an attempt to reclaim some narrative control in the unavoidable discussion of the costs of war, shifting the focus toward efforts to distinguish combatants and the necessity of the war.
Additionally, this reflects the Israeli military's internal assessment of the consequences of a prolonged war. With over 70,000 deaths, approximately 3.5% of the population in the Gaza Strip has been lost in the conflict. The social trauma, memories of hatred, and challenges to future security brought by this proportion are devastating. Acknowledging this scale may be setting a realistic baseline for potential political negotiations that might be unavoidable in the future. After all, any discussions about post-war reconstruction, compensation, or long-term solutions cannot bypass a shared understanding of the extent of the war's damage.
Violence Amid Ceasefire: Deadly Airstrikes on the Eve of Rafah Crossing's Reopening
Ironically, almost at the same time as the Israeli military privately acknowledged the staggering death toll, violence in the Gaza Strip did not cease due to the ceasefire agreement. On January 31, 2026, the day before the planned reopening of the Rafah crossing, Israel launched the most intense round of airstrikes since the ceasefire took effect in October 2025. Hospitals across Gaza reported that the airstrikes resulted in the deaths of at least 30 Palestinians, including multiple children and women, marking one of the highest single-day death tolls during the ceasefire period.
Airstrikes targeted locations across Gaza City, Khan Younis, and other areas, hitting residential buildings, tent camps, and even a police station. In a displaced persons' tent camp in the Mawasi area west of Khan Younis, an airstrike triggered a massive fire, killing seven members of a single family—including a father, his three children, and three grandchildren. Survivor Atallah Abu Hadayed stood before the rubble and bloodstained mattresses, dazed and asking: We don’t know if we are in war or peace… Where is the ceasefire they talked about? In Gaza City, an apartment building was struck, killing three girls, their aunt, and their grandmother in their sleep. Relative Samir Al-Atbash mourned, saying the family were civilians with no ties to Hamas.
The Israeli military stated that these airstrikes were in response to Hamas's violation of the ceasefire agreement, targeting commanders and facilities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The Israeli military claimed to have killed three armed individuals who emerged from a tunnel in the Rafah area on January 30 and arrested a senior Hamas commander. Hamas denied violating the agreement and accused Israel's attack as a blatant new violation, calling on mediating countries such as the United States to pressure Israel. The violence, which occurred on the eve of the reopening of a critical humanitarian corridor, starkly exposed the fragility of the ceasefire and the immense suffering endured by the people of Gaza between macro-political agreements and the harsh realities of daily survival. Even if the total death toll is acknowledged, individual tragedies continue to unfold in the most concrete ways every day.
Regional Influence and the Path Forward: The Political Deadlock Following Recognition
Israel's acknowledgment of the death toll in Gaza has not opened a shortcut to peace; instead, it may subject the already intricate political resolution process to even more severe challenges. First, this data substantiates the international community's accusations of unprecedented humanitarian disasters caused by the war, which will increase the diplomatic and legal pressure Israel faces on the global stage. Egypt and Qatar, as ceasefire mediators, have strongly condemned the recent airstrikes, warning that they directly threaten the political process of the ceasefire. Following the public disclosure of the data, calls for independent international investigations and accountability for war crimes are bound to grow louder.
Secondly, the acknowledgment of data has profoundly influenced the negotiating positions of the conflicting parties. For the Palestinian side, the cost of over 70,000 lives has become non-negotiable political and moral capital. Any negotiations regarding future arrangements must include acknowledgment, commemoration, and compensation for losses on such a scale. For the Netanyahu government in Israel, acknowledging the high casualty figures contradicts its narrative of wartime achievements and could intensify dissatisfaction among far-right factions within the coalition government, who have consistently demanded more thorough military action. Netanyahu himself has repeatedly expressed refusal to accept the establishment of a Palestinian state, which runs counter to the growing international trend of recognizing Palestine (such as the recognition by Canada, the UK, France, and Portugal in September 2025).
Most crucially, the future arrangements for Gaza have fallen into a deep predicament. The second phase of the ceasefire plan promoted by the U.S. Trump administration involves extremely complex issues such as Hamas disarming, further Israeli troop withdrawals, deployment of international peacekeeping forces, and the formation of a new government to oversee reconstruction. Hamas has long refused to disarm, while Israel insists on destroying its military capabilities. With over 70,000 deaths and the destruction of most infrastructure, any reconstruction is not merely material but also a rebuilding of political and social trust. Although reopening the Rafah crossing is a positive step, it is limited to pedestrian passage and has limited effect in alleviating the severe shortages of basic survival supplies such as food, medicine, and shelter faced by Gaza.
The high death toll in the Gaza War ultimately serves as a somber footnote about proportionality and consequences. It forces a return to the fundamental question: Do the objectives and means of military operations align with the proclaimed security costs? When a war that began in response to a terrorist attack evolves into a disaster resulting in tens of thousands of civilian deaths and the near-collapse of social structures, its legacy is far from simple security boundaries. Instead, it leaves behind generational trauma and a land that will require decades to heal. The shift in data from the Israeli military may mark a belated recognition of reality, but the path to genuine peace remains obstructed by ruins, tears, and deep-seated distrust.
Reference materials
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/30/israel-military-gaza-death-toll-broadly-accurate
https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie/2026/01/30/esercito-israeliano-bilancio-morti-gaza
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/israel-gaza-angriffe-122.html
https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/cg4edp6e259o
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/world/middleeast/israel-strikes-gaza-rafah-reopening.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israeli-strikes-gaza-city-9.7069493?cmp=rss