Greenland Crisis: How Trump's Arctic Ambitions Are Tearing Apart the Cornerstone of NATO

In a certain year and month, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated to reporters aboard Air Force One, "We will own Greenland in some form." He ruled out the possibility of a short-term lease, emphasizing that what the United States needs is "ownership." These remarks were not a spur-of-the-moment idea but rather a continuation of the public statements made by Trump and his team over the past week. He described Greenland as critical to U.S. national security, claiming that if the United States does not control this Arctic territory, Russia or China will take it over.

However, Greenland is an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, and Denmark is one of the United States' oldest allies in NATO. Trump's remarks immediately triggered an unprecedented political earthquake within the transatlantic alliance. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned that a U.S. military attack on another NATO country would mean "the end of everything"—including NATO itself and the security framework established after World War II. EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius went even further, stating that a U.S. military takeover of Greenland would lead to the end of NATO.

This dispute over the frozen island, ostensibly a struggle for a strategic stronghold in the Arctic, is in essence evolving into the ultimate stress test for NATO's collective defense principle—the cornerstone that has sustained the alliance for seventy-five years.

Arctic Chessboard: Greenland's Strategic Value and Great Power Competition

Greenland, the world's largest non-continental island, has a permanent population of only about 56,000 but spans a vast land area of 2.16 million square kilometers. For a long time, it has occupied a relatively marginal position in international politics. However, climate change is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. The accelerated melting of the Arctic ice cap is opening new maritime routes, making trans-Arctic shipping increasingly feasible. It is estimated that the Arctic region holds approximately 13% of the world's undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas reserves, while also being rich in critical mineral resources such as rare earth elements, zinc, lead, and iron ore.

Greenland's geographical location makes it a strategic hub for controlling the North Atlantic and Arctic passages. Shipping routes from the east coast of North America to Europe, as well as potential future Arctic routes, all inevitably pass through this region. Militarily, whoever controls Greenland gains an excellent forward outpost for monitoring aerial and maritime activities in the North Atlantic and the Arctic.

The U.S. military presence in Greenland has a long history. During the Cold War, the United States operated approximately ten military bases there. The most famous of these is Thule Air Base, established in 1951, which is the northernmost strategic bomber base of the United States and a key node in the early warning system of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). The updated Greenland Defense Agreement of 2004 grants the U.S. military nearly complete operational freedom on the island, requiring only prior notification to Danish authorities. Trump's claim that Greenland's defense relies solely on "two dog sleds" clearly overlooks this existing and extensive U.S. military deployment.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte acknowledged that Arctic security has become a "priority" for the alliance. He pointed out in Zagreb that there are eight countries in the Arctic region, seven of which are NATO members (the United States, Canada, Denmark via Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Finland, Sweden), with Russia being the only non-NATO member. However, he particularly emphasized that China, through its extensive activities and strategic interests, has become "an Arctic nation in a sense." It is precisely this concern over the expansion of Chinese and Russian influence in the Arctic that Trump used as a core rationale for pushing the United States to "own" Greenland.

The Rift in the Alliance: When the Most Powerful Member Threatens Its Closest Ally

Trump's remarks have plunged NATO into an extremely awkward and perilous situation. Established in 1949, NATO's fundamental purpose is the principle of collective defense enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty: an attack against one member is considered an attack against all. This commitment was invoked for the first and only time following the events of 2001, when the allies united in support of the United States.

However, the design intent of Article 5 was to address external threats, not conflicts within the alliance. When the threat comes from the most powerful leading nation within the alliance itself, NATO's mechanisms appear inadequate. Kubilius pointed out the core of the issue: "This largely depends on Denmark... but there is certainly an obligation among member states to provide mutual assistance when another member faces military aggression." He was referring to Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union, which stipulates the obligation of mutual assistance among EU member states in the face of military aggression. This means that if the United States were to take military action against Denmark (and Greenland), the EU would be legally and morally drawn into a confrontation with the U.S.

This prospect is catastrophic. NATO's deterrence is built on the belief among adversaries that member states will collectively honor their defense commitments. If the United States itself becomes an aggressor, not only would Article 5 be inapplicable (as it requires unanimous consent), but the entire alliance's political credibility and foundational basis would instantly collapse. Frederiksen's statement of "the end of everything" is not an exaggeration; it accurately describes the potential demise of NATO as an effective security organization.

Europe's response was swift and coordinated. France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement in support of Greenland and Denmark. Led by the UK and Germany, European countries are discussing the formulation of a plan to enhance NATO's military presence in Greenland, aiming to demonstrate Europe's commitment to Arctic security and to counter arguments for Trump's takeover of the territory. Germany intends to propose a joint NATO mission named "Arctic Sentinel," modeled after the "Baltic Sentinel" mission launched a year ago to protect critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s perspective is quite representative: it is in the best interest of both the UK and Europe to persuade Trump of the utility of Europe’s soft and hard power, ranging from the war in Ukraine to the security of the American homeland. This stands in contrast to the openly critical stance taken by countries such as France. Starmer has already spoken with Trump to discuss “Euro-Atlantic security” and agreed on “the need to deter an increasingly aggressive Russia in the Arctic region.”

Greenland's Choice: Between Autonomy, Union, and Power

Facing pressure from Washington, the Greenland authorities have demonstrated a firm stance and a clear diplomatic strategy. The Greenland coalition government explicitly stated that it "cannot accept in any way" the United States' desire to occupy its territory. At the same time, they swiftly and deeply linked defense issues to the NATO framework.

The Government of Greenland has announced that it will intensify efforts to ensure the defense of this Arctic territory is conducted within the framework of NATO. Greenland's Prime Minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, stated: "Our security and defense are NATO's responsibility. This is a fundamental and unshakable principle." This statement is a carefully crafted diplomatic move aimed at elevating the issue of Greenland from a bilateral dispute between the United States and Denmark to a collective security matter concerning the credibility and unity of the entire NATO alliance.

The essence of Greenland's strategy is to seek to use multilateralism to counterbalance unilateralism. They attempt to place the United States in a dilemma by activating NATO mechanisms: either respect alliance rules and the sovereignty of allies, or personally destroy the security system it has led for over seventy years for the sake of Greenland. The Greenland government stated that it will "commit to ensuring the development of Greenland's and its surrounding defense through close cooperation with NATO, including through dialogue with our allies (including the United States) and cooperation with Denmark".

Denmark, on the other hand, is attempting to resolve the crisis through diplomatic channels. Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Greenland's Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt plan to travel to Washington this week to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Their goal is to correct the "persistent factual errors and exaggerated security claims" in Trump's remarks. Denmark has already invested 1 billion euros (approximately 1.1 billion U.S. dollars) in Greenland's security sector in 2023, seeking to reassure Washington by increasing investment and demonstrating its capability to maintain security in the region.

In the capital of Greenland, Nuuk, the public sentiment is clearly visible. Julius Nielsen, a 56-year-old fisherman and hunter, told AFP, "Americans? No! We have been colonized for so many years. We are not ready to become a colony again, to be colonized." This sentiment reflects the strong identity of Greenlanders and their cherished right to self-governance. Greenland gained autonomy in 1979, and its scope of self-governance was further expanded in 2009, granting it jurisdiction over most affairs except for defense and foreign policy.

The Future of NATO: Sustaining an Imbalanced Alliance in the Trump Era

Trump's fixation on Greenland epitomizes the broader foreign policy style of his second term. On one hand, he declares, "I saved NATO!!!"; on the other, he repeatedly questions the alliance's value, demands that European allies increase defense spending, and hints that he might not protect those allies who are "delinquent" in their payments. The Greenland incident brought this contradiction to its peak: if the leader of an alliance threatens to seize the territory of an ally, what purpose does the alliance serve?

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is walking a delicate diplomatic tightrope. As the alliance's highest-ranking civilian official, one of his core tasks is to ensure the United States' commitment to NATO. Consequently, he avoids publicly criticizing Trump. When asked whether NATO is in crisis over the Greenland issue, Rutte replied, "No, not at all." Instead, he emphasized that all member states agree on the importance of Arctic security and noted that NATO is discussing next steps to ensure the collective protection of the Arctic region.

However, Rutte's optimistic statement cannot conceal the deep-seated unease within the alliance. NATO's decision-making mechanism is based on consensus, and each member state holds veto power. The United States once unilaterally vetoed Ukraine's membership application. On the Greenland issue, if the United States persists in its own course, there is no mechanism to stop it. NATO lacks a ready-made plan to handle open conflicts between member states. As analysis points out, if the United States were to attack Denmark, it would almost certainly lead to the fragmentation of NATO, much like during the 2003 Iraq War, creating pro-American and anti-American factions.

Europe's response demonstrates a strategic awakening. Kubilius points out that, regardless of whether it can rely on U.S. assistance, Europe needs to enhance its own military capabilities—but defending Europe independently without the U.S. would be a significant challenge. Germany and Britain's push for NATO to increase its presence in Greenland is precisely a manifestation of Europe's attempt to take on more responsibility within the alliance framework and demonstrate strategic autonomy. They aim to prove through action that Arctic security can be addressed through cooperation within NATO, without the need for unilateral U.S. takeover.

On a deeper level, this crisis has exposed a fundamental tension between power and rules within the NATO alliance. The United States, with its unparalleled military and economic strength, has long been the undisputed leader of the alliance. However, when the leader begins to ignore or even undermine the fundamental rules that hold the alliance together—such as respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of member states—the contractual foundation of the alliance begins to crumble. Trump’s rhetoric has forced Europe to confront a previously unthinkable question: What is the value of a U.S.-led NATO if the United States itself could become a security threat?

Beneath Greenland's ice sheets lies not only the frozen history of ancient climates but also a geopolitical hot war in the making, one that could determine the future of Western security order. Will Trump ultimately choose to respect the integrity of the alliance, or will he insist on acquiring Greenland? The answer to this question will not only determine the fate of an Arctic island but also reveal whether the transatlantic alliance of the twenty-first century can continue to exist on the principles upon which it was founded. When the mightiest guardian begins to play the role of a plunderer, the very foundation of the entire castle begins to crumble.