Naturalization or Return? The Identity Dilemma of Syrians in Germany at the Crossroads of German Immigration Policy.

By the end of 2025, the German federal government disclosed a set of intriguing data in a document responding to a parliamentary inquiry from the Left Party: as of the end of November last year, the population holding Syrian nationality within Germany was 940,401. A year earlier, this number was approximately 974,000. On the surface, the Syrian community appears to be shrinking. However, the decline in statistics is not due to a large-scale wave of returns to their homeland, but rather a quiet yet profound process of social integration—naturalization. During the same period, only 3,707 Syrians voluntarily left the country with government assistance. In stark contrast, over 83,000 Syrians obtained German passports throughout 2024. Many of them have since disappeared from official statistics, transitioning from foreigners to Germans.

This is not merely a technical adjustment in demographics. It reflects the fundamental choices of the post-war generation of Syrian refugees, tests the coherence and humanitarian bottom line of Germany's immigration policy, and further indicates that as the Syrian crisis enters its fifteenth year, its geopolitical and demographic structures are undergoing permanent changes.

The Reality Behind the Data: Integration Replaces Return Migration

From 2023 to 2024, Syria has consistently been one of the largest source countries for new naturalized citizens in Germany. In 2024, the total number of naturalizations in Germany reached a historic record of 291,955, with Syrians accounting for over a quarter of that figure, totaling 83,150 individuals. This trend had already emerged in 2023, when more than 75,000 Syrians were naturalized. Analysis indicates that since 2023, a large number of Syrians who arrived in Germany during the peak of the refugee influx in 2015-2016 have successively met the requirements for naturalization, including residency duration, language proficiency, and economic self-sufficiency.

Naturalization has become a mainstream choice, driven by a combination of factors. For many Syrians, a German passport represents stable legal status, full political rights, and unrestricted freedom to travel. This not only ensures personal security but also serves as a cornerstone for planning the future of the next generation. Ryan Al-Shebl, the mayor of Ostelsheim in Baden-Württemberg, is a representative example. He arrived as a refugee in 2015 and has now become part of Germany's local politics. While his story is not universal, it symbolizes the possibility of successful integration and inspires more of his compatriots to choose to put down roots.

At the same time, the number of voluntary returns appears insignificant. In the first 11 months of 2025, only 3,707 individuals accepted funding to return to their home countries. This minimal data sharply contrasts with the political debate in Germany regarding forced deportations. According to federal government statistics, by the end of November 2025, 10,253 Syrians were classified as having an obligation to leave, but over 90% of them held a tolerated stay status. This tolerated status is typically issued due to practical obstacles such as family reunification, lack of travel documents, illness, or ongoing vocational training. It does not constitute a legal right of residence but rather a temporary suspension of deportation, leaving individuals in a prolonged state of legal and living limbo.

Syria: A Fragile Nation in the "Post-War Era"

Why is the journey back home so desolate? German Foreign Minister John Wadepool's remarks after visiting Syria last October, though controversial, pinpointed the core dilemma. He assessed that the possibility of returning to severely damaged areas such as Damascus in the short term is extremely limited. He even compared Syria's current situation to that of Germany in 1945 in internal discussions, and although he later clarified his statement, his judgment on the arduousness of Syria's reconstruction remains unchanged.

In a document responding to the Left Party, the federal government's description of the current situation in Syria is more official but equally severe: the new government still faces the tasks of unifying the country and ensuring safety and protection for all Syrian residents. The report points out that the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with nearly 70% of the population relying on international aid for survival. The overall situation remains unstable, and this risk applies to all Syrians, not just specific minority groups.

The collapse of infrastructure is a visible obstacle. Many regions lack habitable housing, schools, electricity, and clean water. However, more complex than the physical ruins is the reshaping of the political and security landscape. In December 2024, the long-ruling Bashar al-Assad regime was overthrown by the Islamist armed group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa currently holds power as the interim president and is actively seeking to improve relations with the West. This dramatic change directly impacted the number of refugees flowing into Germany: in 2024, Syrians submitted 76,765 first-time asylum applications in Germany; by 2025, this number plummeted to 23,256.

The reshuffling of the political landscape has not brought stability. Recently, clashes erupted between government forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces, primarily composed of Kurds, around the northern Syrian stronghold of Aleppo, displacing thousands of people. This indicates that even as large-scale civil war subsides, localized conflicts, power struggles, and ethnic tensions continue to emerge intermittently, far from meeting the safety standards that would allow refugees to return with peace of mind.

The Tug-of-War in German Politics: Humanitarian Protection vs. Deportation Pressure

Syrians vote with their feet to choose citizenship, while domestic politics in Germany fiercely debate their stay or departure. At the core of this debate lies how to define Syria's safety and what moral and legal responsibilities Germany should bear.

The hardline voices represented by the CSU are growing louder. In a resolution document submitted to the Federal Parliament, the party explicitly argued that for many Syrians holding temporary residency permits, their original grounds for asylum have expired as the Syrian civil war has ended. They called for launching a repatriation offensive in 2026 and including Syria as a destination for returns. In fact, since last December, Germany has already repatriated three Syrian criminals via commercial flights accompanied by federal police. The talks between Federal Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt and Syrian Foreign Minister Assad Al-Shaibani are expected to focus on the issue of repatriation as one of the core topics.

However, the judicial system's judgment has undergone subtle changes, providing some basis for hardliners. German courts, such as the Düsseldorf Administrative Court, have recently ruled in individual cases that certain Syrians no longer face a general risk upon returning to places like Damascus or Latakia, thereby allowing their deportation after their asylum applications are rejected. Although these rulings are individual cases, they indicate a potential shift in judicial assessment, opening up legal possibilities for more deportations.

In stark opposition, there is strong resistance from the Left Party, the Greens, and minority community groups. The controversy erupted over the planned visit to Berlin by Syria's interim president, Al-Sharaa. Although the visit was postponed for domestic reasons in Syria, the news of it has already caused a significant uproar. Representatives from Kurdish groups and the Yazidi community expressed anger and concern. The Yazidi Diaspora Council, the representative organization of Yazidis in Germany, questioned whether this move contradicts the consistency of state actions and harms the interests of victim communities seeking asylum in Germany.

The situation of the Yazidis serves as the most morally significant touchstone in this debate. Since 2014, nearly 100,000 Iraqi Yazidis and approximately 15,000 Syrian Yazidis have fled to Germany. Three years ago, the German Bundestag formally recognized that the crimes committed by ISIS against the Yazidis constitute genocide. The Green Party and the Left Party are making every effort to push for permanent residency rights for Yazidis from Iraq and Syria. Clara Bünger, the Left Party’s spokesperson for refugee policy, stated bluntly: It is irresponsible and outrageous to repatriate survivors of genocide to such an environment. This forces the German government to strike a difficult balance between realpolitik and its historical moral commitments.

Future Vision: The Formation of Discrete Communities and Dual Challenges

More than 1.2 million people with Syrian background live in Germany, of which approximately 940,000 still hold Syrian passports, while several hundred thousand have already acquired German citizenship. Regardless of legal status, a large, young, and increasingly rooted Syrian-German community has taken shape. Many among them are completing their education, entering the labor market, and starting families. For them, returning to their homeland is increasingly becoming an emotional concept rather than a practical life option. Their future is deeply intertwined with Germany's socio-economic development.

This reality presents long-term challenges for both Germany and Syria.

For Germany, the challenge lies in policy consistency. On one hand, Germany has significantly lowered the threshold for naturalization through the new Nationality Law, effectively encouraging integration and naturalization, as evidenced by the record-breaking naturalization figures in 2024. On the other hand, political circles continue to voice calls for forced repatriation, attempting to classify some Syrians as individuals not in need of protection. These contradictory signals—welcoming integration while simultaneously demanding departure—may intensify community insecurity and hinder the process of social integration. How to harmonize the principles of humanitarian protection, judicial rulings, domestic political pressures, and diplomatic engagement with the new Syrian authorities will remain an ongoing test of the German government's governance capabilities.

For Syria, it faces the dilemma of continuous loss of talent and labor force. Those who choose to become naturalized German citizens are often the younger generation who already possess language skills, work capabilities, or educational backgrounds. Their departure delays the accumulation of human resources, which is most critical for post-war reconstruction. Even if the situation in Syria truly stabilizes in the future, attracting these dispersed elites to return on a large scale will be extremely difficult. Syria may face the long-term aftermath of an imbalanced population structure and brain drain.

From a broader perspective, the choices of Syrians in Germany also represent a microcosm of the global refugee dilemma. Once the initial emergency shelter phase passes, there are no simple answers to questions such as how refugees transition from survival to living, how host countries shift from accommodation to integration, and how countries of origin respond to permanent demographic changes. German data clearly shows that, given opportunity and time, most refugees choose to build a future in their new home rather than return to a devastated homeland.

This population migration, which began as a survival escape, is quietly reshaping the social landscapes of two countries as hundreds of thousands acquire new citizenship. The decline in statistics is not the end of the story, but the beginning of a new chapter—a long chapter about identity reconstruction, political maneuvering, and human resilience. Both Germany and Syria have had to learn to coexist with this new reality.